*** The Official MAGAposting thread ***

[wufwugy]

I never said there would be fewer shootings; I said they would target different places. Maybe there'd be more deaths, like in LV.

I know you didn't say that; it is instead implied by your premise.

If concealed carry in schools incentivizes shooters to not shoot up schools, it means the probable outcome is fewer shootings (and fewer deaths). This is because the current selection of schools includes the greatest net benefit to the shooter. If the shooter is deterred from that, it means he either doesn't go shooting (if he's on the margin) or he goes shooting in a place where he is more likely to get fewer kills.

The net effect of your premise (which is a correct premise) is fewer mass shootings and fewer associated deaths.

[Poopadoop]

I know you didn't say that; it is instead implied by your premise.

If concealed carry in schools incentivizes shooters to not shoot up schools, it means the probable outcome is fewer shootings (and fewer deaths). This is because the current selection of schools includes the greatest net benefit to the shooter. If the shooter is deterred from that, it means he either doesn't go shooting (if he's on the margin) or he goes shooting in a place where he is more likely to get fewer kills.

The net effect of your premise (which is a correct premise) is fewer mass shootings and fewer associated deaths.

A school isn't the only place someone can exact a high death toll if that is their aim. In fact, there's probably a lot of other places one could do more killing, like a mall, a concert, or basically anywhere there's a large concentration of people.

So fine, if your aim is to save students' lives at the expense of other people's, then arming teachers would help with that. But it won't stop mass shootings or even limit the number of mass shootings or the number of gun deaths. I think you're not being realistic in suggesting that some crazy person decides 'i'm gonna shoot up a school' and would just give up that plan if the schoolteachers were armed, and do nothing instead. My sense is they would almost certainly carry it out somewhere else.

Also, not to diminish the importance of what's happened in these schools, but there's 150,000 schools in the USA, and about a dozen shootings/yr with > 1 casualty over the last couple of years. The chance of any given school experiencing a mass shooting in a given year is less than 1 in 10,000. So I think the whole thing about school shootings is being overblown by all the media attention they get. The bigger problem is gun deaths in general and arming teachers is not going to address that in any significant way.

[wufwugy]

My sense is they would almost certainly carry it out somewhere else.

In order for this to be true, the potential shooter would need to be indifferent between the choice of school or someplace else. They aren't, because according to their preferences, shooting up schools gives them more net benefit than the next best option.

[Poopadoop]

In order for this to be true, the potential shooter would need to be indifferent between the choice of school or someplace else. They aren't, because according to their preferences, shooting up schools gives them more net benefit than the next best option.

They don't have to be indifferent, they just have to be willing to consider more than one option.

[wufwugy]

They don't have to be indifferent, they just have to be willing to consider more than one option.

If there is no change in quantity or intensity of shootings (which is what you implied), then it means they are probably indifferent. So far the data strongly suggests they are not indifferent.

Ya I'm not buying this 'the only way they're going to be a mass murderer is if they can do it at a school' theory.

That would be a different theory than one I have expressed.

[wufwugy]

The bigger problem is gun deaths in general

Yeah, criminals shooting other criminals.

I know I'm being lied to when the media that claims to care about gun deaths only covers them in the small fraction of times in which the deaths fit their political agendas.

[wufwugy]

Dear criminals,

[MadMojoMonkey]

If concealed carry in schools incentivizes shooters to not shoot up schools, it means the probable outcome is fewer shootings (and fewer deaths). This is because the current selection of schools includes the greatest net benefit to the shooter. If the shooter is deterred from that, it means he either doesn't go shooting (if he's on the margin) or he goes shooting in a place where he is more likely to get fewer kills.

You're assigning a standard of rational thinking to someone whom is committed to mass murder, a decidedly irrational activity.

[wufwugy]

You're assigning a standard of rational thinking to someone whom is committed to mass murder, a decidedly irrational activity.

This is conflating two different types of rationality. The mass murderer has preferences and knows his preferences; therefore economic rationality applies.

[MadMojoMonkey]

This is conflating two different types of rationality. The mass murderer has preferences and knows his preferences; therefore economic rationality applies.

So this:
"I'm really excited about indiscriminately killing a bunch of people, but damn... there are guns at the school... fuck me, I'll do something else besides murder."
sounds to you like a probable thought process in a would-be mass murderer?

I assert that someone whom is criminally insane and committed to mass murder isn't going to be so easily deterred from their ambition.

[Poopadoop]

Ya I'm not buying this 'the only way they're going to be a mass murderer is if they can do it at a school' theory.

[wufwugy]

So this:
"I'm really excited about indiscriminately killing a bunch of people, but damn... there are guns at the school... fuck me, I'll do something else besides murder."
sounds to you like a probable thought process in a would-be mass murderer?

I assert that someone whom is criminally insane and committed to mass murder isn't going to be so easily deterred from their ambition.

It depends on the elasticity of their demand to murder and how much the cost changes. With a cost increase of committing a school shooting for would-be shooters, there would be a marginal reduction of the quantity demanded of school shootings by would-be shooters. The elasticity of their demand curve and the degree of cost increase would determine how big that marginal change is.