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 Originally Posted by wufwugy
North Korea is definitely getting denuclearized during Trump's 8 years, and it's highly likely to be soon.
I'm really not understanding how you've come to this conclusion. I'd say it's a coin flip at best.
What is Kim's motivation to de-nuclearize? Why would he do that? Because people are starving?? Pffffft, cmon. People have been starving in NK for a long time, and the solutions to that have been there all along. Kim's not interested. A thriving, economically successful citizenry is the last thing an oppressive fascist regime wants. And it definitely doesn't want to be on "international probation".
You really think Trump is going to be the great diplomat and heal the rift between NK and the rest of the world?? C'mon man. How?
If he's successful, he certainly deserves some credit. But you can't ignore that what seems to have happened is that NK just ran out of money before it could become a significant nuclear threat. They've come to the negotiating table before, and all they've done is buy time. They make some concessions, just enough to keep their economy going, and then just keep on going with their nuke program.
I'm guessing that there is about an 80% chance that's what happens. Trump will get applauded by Hannity, and Kim will get the nobel peace prize. I'm not kidding.
There's a 10% chance that Trump has some kind of sweeping, world-changing victory. And frankly, if he does, he should get re-elected based solely on that.
Then there is a 10% chance that we find out that military destruction of his enemies is all Kim's really after, at any cost. This percentage increases (and the 80% decreases) the longer the can gets kicked down the road.
Kim, or his father, could have embraced the world economy and peaceful disarmament a long time ago, or at any time since. they haven't. They've explicity chosen to oppress and propagandize their own citizens for the purpose of military strength. Why would they do that??
Generally, if you can't figure out why someone is doing something, look at the result, and then infer the motivation.
Why would a radical violent dictator want better weapons???
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