Insane river spot against Redargoe 2/4 deep

[Deanglow]

Villain is redargoe, a very ill regular running at 22/19. We don't tangle much and I can't think of any non-standard spots we've been involved in. He probably sees me as too tight. He is definitely capable of calling with QQ preflop, and capable of value shoving worse. Only interesting decision is on river imo.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (5 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Button ($461.50)
SB ($783.70)
BB ($74)
UTG ($464.60)
Hero ($756)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A, A.
1 fold, Hero raises to $12, 1 fold, SB calls $10, 1 fold.

Flop: ($28) Q, 2, 2 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $18, SB raises to $60, Hero calls $42.

Turn: ($148) 9 (2 players)
SB bets $120, Hero calls $120.

River: ($388) J (2 players)
SB bets $591.7 (All-In), Hero says wtf

[Alexos]

pleeeeeeeease raise somewhere!!!

[Alexos]

I dont know redargoe, but I know he plays up to 10/20 so he might be decent. This deep good players will put a lot of pressure an expect u to fold hands like AQ, even AA apparently, which makes it a call. If he's a meganit then this doesnt apply.

And he might be value betting with worse.

[griffey24]

pleeeeeeeease raise somewhere!!!

I don't know... I don't mind a call down here given how deep we are.

I mean, the only place to raise is the turn right? And so we raise to like 300.. what do we do if he pushes??

this is a pretty sick spot. I don't know how light he's raising the flop but if he can get to the river with QJ this can definitely be QJ. I don't know if AQ would go buckwild like this.

Does he have a 2 or not.. hmmm.

We are ONLY behind a 2 by the river I feel like and this flop is such an obvious flop to c/r with any hand and lots of pairs even.. and he prob realized the only way he can win this river is if he shoves.

Its hard to really comment in this kind of spot.. this is so history dependent I feel like.

[Deanglow]

pleeeeeeeease raise somewhere!!!

This is not the best play.

[meeloche]

Why isn't he 3 betting QQ from the sb?

I don't feel qualified to respond to this but this really looks like he wants you to fold a queen real bad, or he luckboxed JJ on the river. I dunno pretty sick spot.

[nutsinho]

dont raise anywhere and fold the river. He def doesnt expect you to fold if you are an unknown and hes never ever value betting worse.

[microgrinder]

Disconnect-protect is probably optimal. :P

But seriously I don't know here. Im slightly feeling a fold, but... this is sick. I really think he could show up with air. I guess probably QJ, any 2, 99 easily in his range as well. QQ too i guess since you said you think he could have it.

[Renton]

play same and fold imo

[Deanglow]

He instantly bet every street fwiw. I think raising anywhere in this hand is absolutely terrible. I guess with no history the river is a fold.

[Renton]

i like a 3bet on flop some of the time

[Alexos]

I'm really surprised at the replies in this thread. You guys are assuming that:

1) He's not bluffing often here
2)He's not taking advantage of the fact we're deep
3)He doesn't expect us to fold top pair

why..

[Alexos]

btw if the board was 77Q there would be much more of an argument for folding, I just dont see why he would show up with a deuce here, which restricts his range to runner runner straights, 99, and A2, 23-25 mayyyybe

[Numbr2intheWorld]

I just don't get what he has at all.

[Fnord]

JJ or 99 are about the only hands that make sense.

Uhh.... this is why I hate playing this deep relative to the cheap street action.

[Renton]

JJ and 99 don't even make sense.

A2s and QQ are the only hands he should theoretically have

[Renton]

i've changed my mind, i call.

[nutsinho]

um why cant he have quads? i think hes much more likely to have 22 than any 2xs

[Alexos]

quads are def possible and make sense, prob make the most sense actually... after bluffs

Tc8c would be nice too

[Renton]

um why cant he have quads? i think hes much more likely to have 22 than any 2xs

lol yeah that too, im dumb

[will641]

well if hes capable of flatting QQ pre, he is also capable of flatting KK as well right?

also, why not 3 bet the flop? he might over shove as we are deep, because of yeti theorem too right?

[Irisheyes]

$200 on flop, call shove.

[griffey24]

quads are def possible and make sense, prob make the most sense actually... after bluffs

Tc8c would be nice too

haha I was thinking he somehow got there with KTclubs.

I'm not sure about quads.I realize its possible, but something about his betting makes me feel like he's really tryin to get a fold on all streets and not getting value from quads or Queens full if thats what he has.

I think a hand like 99 is definitely possible. He could think its worth c/r this flop instead of c/c to protect his hand this deep when bad cards could peel on turn and he's OOP.

[pantherhound]

$200 on flop, call shove.

agree.

[Marshall28]

I know quite a bit about redargoe, used to play and chat w/ him on AIM when I was first coming up.

He's a very solid player and has a very good understanding of the game. For that reason, I would assume he knows these things: Q22 flop excellent flop to c/r after cold calling preflop, his c/r here imo is standard w/ any 2.

He is capable of flatting QQ for deception. It's possible that's what hes holding, and I don't know as much about his game now, but knowing that he like 20 tables successfully playing like 22/19 or something I assume his game has developed A TON.

This flop is a perfect spot for a "click it back" or whatever like was explained in a previous topic, I think the posters towards the bottom got this one much more correct than the ones at the beginning advocating to never raise him in this scenario.

Here are the problems I see: (1)He's capable of flatting QQ pf here, (2)Because c/r on this board is so standard 8Tcc and KTcc can definitely not be looked over as parts of his range BECAUSE OF THE FACT THAT (3) argoe is definitely smart enough to know that any two pair hand is counterfeited especially w/ how face-up your hand is.

I wouldn't put him on 99 or JJ or the reasons that I would expect him to pot control these hands since you don't seem to think there is a dynamic between the two of you that suggests he is checkraising the flop to induce a bluff (and because you are deep). I think by the river you are pretty much never ahead, he is too solid to make a bluff here especially w/ the way the board turned out it looks too good for 8Tcc and KTcc.

course this all goes by the wayside if he flopped quads, but we are supposed to stack off if that unlikely scenario happened.

My advice: click it back on the flop and take the initiate in the hand. dont force yourself into such a sick spot on the river.

[Deanglow]

He plays 16+ 6max tables at a time, which led me to believe he wouldn't be bluffing. Here is a previous hand we played a half hour or so earlier on another table. I only see him fastplay his big hands.

POKERSTARS GAME #15742942635: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($2/$4) - 2008/03/04 - 18:14:53 (ET)
Table 'Asterion IV' 6-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: rockets23 ($528.70 in chips)
Seat 2: kemikar ($398 in chips)
Seat 3: umpa21 ($392 in chips)
Seat 4: Jochen0907 ($170.70 in chips)
Seat 5: redargoe ($800 in chips)
Seat 6: SCAP1313 ($462.40 in chips)
umpa21: posts small blind $2
Jochen0907: posts big blind $4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to kemikar [Jh Js]
redargoe: raises $12 to $16
SCAP1313: folds
rockets23: folds
kemikar: calls $16
umpa21: folds
Jochen0907: calls $12
*** FLOP *** [Jc 8c Kc]
Jochen0907: checks
redargoe: bets $32
kemikar: raises $76 to $108
Jochen0907: folds
redargoe: raises $676 to $784 and is all-in
kemikar: calls $274 and is all-in
*** TURN *** [Jc 8c Kc] [8h]
*** RIVER *** [Jc 8c Kc 8h] [9d]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
redargoe: shows [Ac Qc] (a flush, Ace high)
kemikar: shows [Jh Js] (a full house, Jacks full of Eights)
kemikar collected $811 from pot

[IowaSkinsFan]

I don't click it back because i dont think he expects deanglow to ever do that as a bluff. If he thinks that kemikar is capable of some aggression but is bad, raising to like 116 is pretty ill.

Idk its probably a fold but who knows, it could be barely a call.

[Numbr2intheWorld]

I get that sick feeling in my stomach he rivered you.

[noble007]

If this is the first time you guys have tangled like this I probably call.
You should of raised any decent hand by the turn hence you dont look very strong and I cant imagine a hand he thinks you're going to call with if he shoves, looks like he thinks he can get you of kq/AQ something.

[Marshall28]

his play of the hand you posted is 100% standard, i dont think u can deduce much about your particular hand from it.

[gabe]

hes gotta have quads

[Fnord]

If this is the first time you guys have tangled like this I probably call.

This seems backwards.

Paranoia and distrust comes after the honeymoon.

[nutsinho]

If this is the first time you guys have tangled like this I probably call.

This seems backwards.

Paranoia and distrust comes after the honeymoon.

bingo

[noble007]

Fair enough.
But if I'm villian in this hand, by the time we get to the river I think hero appears fairly weak, looks like he has a KQ type hand.
So if he's fairly unknown/we haven't tangled & I have a good hand Quads/fh I value bet smaller to get a call from his apparently weakish range.
If I was leading with a mid pp like 77/88, Qx, against an fairly unkown player I might consider shoving in this spot because I'd think I could get him off most of his range, a Q & maybe even an overpair.

hence I thought a call could be marginally correct, but yes maybe way off here.

(I thought had you tangled before Villian would be aware that you play from behind with a stronger range than most & whether or not you make big calls with it.)

[Marshall28]

Fair enough.
But if I'm villian in this hand, by the time we get to the river I think hero appears fairly weak, looks like he has a KQ type hand.
So if he's fairly unknown/we haven't tangled & I have a good hand Quads/fh I value bet smaller to get a call from his apparently weakish range.
If I was leading with a mid pp like 77/88, Qx, against an fairly unkown player I might consider shoving in this spot because I'd think I could get him off most of his range, a Q & maybe even an overpair.

hence I thought a call could be marginally correct, but yes maybe way off here.

(I thought had you tangled before Villian would be aware that you play from behind with a stronger range than most & whether or not you make big calls with it.)

i think this is the kind of philosophy that dictates attempting to save bets because you might be behind rather than trying to maximize value because you might be ahead

[Deanglow]

Results: I timed down and folded.

[griffey24]

I really don't agree with clicking it back on this flop (with the intention of calling a shove), and taking back the initiative in this hand.

If what marshall is saying is true, and that redargoe is capable of c/r this flop with any 2 (which I think is likely the case on this board), I think that makes clicking it back even worse. We have a really strong hand, in position, so we should let him spew to us if he's capable of having air here.

I agree that taking this passive line (instead of having the initiative) gives us a headache and a hard decision, but sometimes the lines that give hero the hardest decisions are also the most +EV lines.

Taking over the initiative anywhere in this hand is stacking yourself when he has better (unless he's capable of felting AQ or some draw on turn? is that possible?) and letting him off easy when he has worse, IMO.

[Lukie]

i think you're ahead here about 5%

[Genitruc]

omg CALLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL he s value-towning himself with 2 pr

[Lukie]

omg CALLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL he s value-towning himself with 2 pr

unless he has like, exactly qjcc or qjhh, which we really have to weight against given action, i disagree

[nutsinho]

Seat 1: kungkd ($272.65 in chips)
Seat 2: rmorrell11 ($138.20 in chips)
Seat 3: redargoe ($396 in chips)
Seat 5: adam001 ($400 in chips)
Seat 6: Patonius2000 ($418.60 in chips)
redargoe: posts small blind $2
adam001: posts big blind $4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to adam001 [Ad 3d]
cropat joins the table at seat #4
Patonius2000: folds
kungkd: folds
rmorrell11: folds
redargoe: raises $12 to $16
adam001: calls $12
*** FLOP *** [Qs Kd 6d]
redargoe: bets $24
adam001: calls $24
*** TURN *** [Qs Kd 6d] [Qc]
redargoe: bets $64
adam001: calls $64
*** RIVER *** [Qs Kd 6d Qc] [5d]
redargoe: bets $292 and is all-in
adam001: calls $292
*** SHOW DOWN ***
redargoe: shows [Qh Js] (three of a kind, Queens)
adam001: shows [Ad 3d] (a flush, Ace high)



hmm....

[Alexos]

[ ] 200bb deep

but ya see i told u guys!

[Deanglow]

Seat 1: kungkd ($272.65 in chips)
Seat 2: rmorrell11 ($138.20 in chips)
Seat 3: redargoe ($396 in chips)
Seat 5: adam001 ($400 in chips)
Seat 6: Patonius2000 ($418.60 in chips)
redargoe: posts small blind $2
adam001: posts big blind $4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to adam001 [Ad 3d]
cropat joins the table at seat #4
Patonius2000: folds
kungkd: folds
rmorrell11: folds
redargoe: raises $12 to $16
adam001: calls $12
*** FLOP *** [Qs Kd 6d]
redargoe: bets $24
adam001: calls $24
*** TURN *** [Qs Kd 6d] [Qc]
redargoe: bets $64
adam001: calls $64
*** RIVER *** [Qs Kd 6d Qc] [5d]
redargoe: bets $292 and is all-in
adam001: calls $292
*** SHOW DOWN ***
redargoe: shows [Qh Js] (three of a kind, Queens)
adam001: shows [Ad 3d] (a flush, Ace high)



hmm....

This is a drastically different situation than mine.

[Genitruc]

ya btw after posting my retarded 2-pair read I've come to think think he has exactly quads or a runnered str8 or a bluff so who knows

[Lukie]

Seat 1: kungkd ($272.65 in chips)
Seat 2: rmorrell11 ($138.20 in chips)
Seat 3: redargoe ($396 in chips)
Seat 5: adam001 ($400 in chips)
Seat 6: Patonius2000 ($418.60 in chips)
redargoe: posts small blind $2
adam001: posts big blind $4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to adam001 [Ad 3d]
cropat joins the table at seat #4
Patonius2000: folds
kungkd: folds
rmorrell11: folds
redargoe: raises $12 to $16
adam001: calls $12
*** FLOP *** [Qs Kd 6d]
redargoe: bets $24
adam001: calls $24
*** TURN *** [Qs Kd 6d] [Qc]
redargoe: bets $64
adam001: calls $64
*** RIVER *** [Qs Kd 6d Qc] [5d]
redargoe: bets $292 and is all-in
adam001: calls $292
*** SHOW DOWN ***
redargoe: shows [Qh Js] (three of a kind, Queens)
adam001: shows [Ad 3d] (a flush, Ace high)



hmm....

it appears that redargoe played this hand very well

[Seabass]

What do you think he thinks you can have when you call the turn? I dont know how you play but I think it's a rather thin range, and with no history does he realy think he can make you fold most of that range to make this a good play? Imo he thinks he has the best hand and might just get more value from you with this funky looking play.

He only calls from the blinds and he looks more like the standard 3betting player. With BB being short aswell. Doesnt it look more like a big pair, looking to trap a squeeze from the BB rather then QJ/22? If he flats with something like 22 here he will hafto fold to a squeeze and he's playing for set value only, even if your deep, that looks bad to me.

[Genitruc]

ya redardgoe pretty much had the nuts on the riv in that trip Q's hand he plays goot

[noble007]

Very different situation obv, but this is redargoe with quads, with 3 other people in hand & he checked it on all 3 streets


PokerStars Game #3081472480: Hold'em No Limit ($2/$4) -
Table 'Nemesis' Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: redargoe ($490.50 in chips)
Seat 3: KatmanAKs ($302.40 in chips)
Seat 4: aeest400 ($428.85 in chips)
Seat 5: check_kills ($477 in chips)
Seat 6: 7 9 HAMMER ($434 in chips)
Seat 7: Donation ($160 in chips)
Seat 8: squashua ($235.15 in chips)
7 9 HAMMER: posts small blind $2
Donation: posts big blind $4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to KatmanAKs Ad6d
squashua: folds
redargoe: raises $8 to $12
KatmanAKs: folds
aeest400: calls $12
check_kills: calls $12
7 9 HAMMER: calls $10
Donation: folds
*** FLOP *** 9s5c9d
7 9 HAMMER: checks
redargoe: checks
aeest400: checks
check_kills: checks
*** TURN *** 9s5c9d5d
7 9 HAMMER: checks
redargoe: checks
aeest400: checks
check_kills: checks
*** RIVER *** 9s5c9d5dJh
7 9 HAMMER: checks
redargoe: checks
aeest400: bets $20
check_kills: calls $20
7 9 HAMMER: folds
redargoe: raises $458.50 to $478.50 and is all-in
mikesflop joins the table at seat #9
aeest400: calls $396.85 and is all-in
check_kills: folds
*** SHOW DOWN ***
redargoe: shows 9c9h (four of a kind, Nines)
aeest400: shows 5s5h (four of a kind, Fives)
redargoe collected $902.70 from pot
check_kills said, "OMMMG"
aeest400 said, "** k"

[bode]

hes got a better chance of someone making the action for him 4 handed than he does in a HU pot.

[noble007]

true & the hh is quite old.
Just posting cuz its quads

[Marshall28]

genitrue:

on the same note, because he plays really good, he definitely doesn't have to have the nuts. hero's hand is so face up that it makes it pretty obvious he can't take the heat on the river ... this is why hero has to raise at some point.

[Genitruc]

genitrue:

on the same note, because he plays really good, he definitely doesn't have to have the nuts. hero's hand is so face up that it makes it pretty obvious he can't take the heat on the river ... this is why hero has to raise at some point.

or just call the river?

[mixchange]

where did you get that HH noble?

[noble007]

googled redargoe and quads i think

[Marshall28]

genitrue:

on the same note, because he plays really good, he definitely doesn't have to have the nuts. hero's hand is so face up that it makes it pretty obvious he can't take the heat on the river ... this is why hero has to raise at some point.

or just call the river?

sick tough call that deep w/ just the pr of aces ....

i asked argoe what he had, but he said he'd only tell me under the condition that i don't tell anyone else. hahahah.

[nutsinho]

adam would never ever call riv with worse than qj in that spot so its pretty terrible actually



the point of the hh is that red can overshove for SUPER thin value, arguably just to avoid feeling horrible about c/c or c/f; you dont need to point out to me that its a different spot. every hand is a different spot

[noble007]

Just throwing this hypothesis out there because I like to make bad assumptions

Marshall28 said initially

"I think by the river you are pretty much never ahead, he is too solid to make a bluff here especially w/ the way the board turned out it looks too good for 8Tcc and KTcc."

But then recently did what seems like a 180

"on the same note, because he plays really good, he definitely doesn't have to have the nuts. hero's hand is so face up that it makes it pretty obvious he can't take the heat on the river ... this is why hero has to raise at some point."

A few posts later he revealed he'd spoken to redargoe & possibly learned the outcome of the hand.
I would suggest the he spoke to regargoe before the second post hence the 180 & I would be fairly confident AA was good here.

bad assumption, probably. who cares, true.

[DaNutsInYoEye]

Fold. He plays very straight forward at 2/4 and plays his big hands fast.

[Marshall28]

Just throwing this hypothesis out there because I like to make bad assumptions

Marshall28 said initially

"I think by the river you are pretty much never ahead, he is too solid to make a bluff here especially w/ the way the board turned out it looks too good for 8Tcc and KTcc."

But then recently did what seems like a 180

"on the same note, because he plays really good, he definitely doesn't have to have the nuts. hero's hand is so face up that it makes it pretty obvious he can't take the heat on the river ... this is why hero has to raise at some point."

A few posts later he revealed he'd spoken to redargoe & possibly learned the outcome of the hand.
I would suggest the he spoke to regargoe before the second post hence the 180 & I would be fairly confident AA was good here.

bad assumption, probably. who cares, true.

i think my initial analysis was a little poor. by saying hes too solid and your hand is never good here, i guess i really meant that his range is polarized so that he's too solid to be valuing worse. in which case it's either a pure bluff or the nuts.