AT - TPWK - All draws miss and loose-passive leads.

[Pelion]

Just wanting a checkup on this. Is this a standard fold vs a 58/0/1AF after plenty of hands?

Also, check back river good?


Poker Stars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (5 handed) - Poker Stars Converter Tool from http://flopturnriver.com/

UTG ($10.38)
Hero (MP) ($11.93)
Button ($13.96)
SB ($10)
BB ($12.60)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A, 10
1 fold, Hero raises $0.30, 2 folds, BB calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.65) 6, 4, A (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.40, BB calls $0.40

Turn: ($1.45) J (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1, BB calls $1

River: ($3.45) Q (2 players)
BB bets $2, Hero folds

Total pot: $3.45

Results below:

Spoiler: Show

BB didn't show

[rong]

fold dat shit

[WeldPhaser]

yeah, check the river back, v. a better opponent you could maybe empty the clip, nh

[Carroters]

So all draws brick vs a random fish and we aren't good here 26% of the time? I mean yeah he's passive but does he really have two pair + 3 times as often as he has a random Ax, missed spade draw, random spazz with Qx etc etc? I doubt it.

If he checks the river I think it's a really easy value bet btw.

I don't use AF at all really, so could be wrong here, but if this is a meaningful sample, is 1 not kinda average for some who plays 58% of hands? I'd imagine an AF of 2 would be hella aggro for such a ridiculous wide range.

[WeldPhaser]

So all draws brick vs a random fish and we aren't good here 26% of the time? I mean yeah he's passive but does he really have two pair + 3 times as often as he has a random Ax, missed spade draw, random spazz with Qx etc etc? I doubt it.

If he checks the river I think it's a really easy value bet btw.

I don't use AF at all really, so could be wrong here, but if this is a meaningful sample, is 1 not kinda average for some who plays 58% of hands? I'd imagine an AF of 2 would be hella aggro for such a ridiculous wide range.

i know it's discounted, but KT got theres. it's just when these guys donk the river its 2pair+ a lot so i muck, but i don't think you'll ever lose money listening to carrot.

[Carroters]

I mean he might have two pair + like 70% of the time and we still have to call. I think calling can never be a mistake given how rarely we need to be good vs a fish who we surely have to give some reasonable % of worse hands to in this spot. If this fish is actually just clicking buttons which is certainly likely we could be making a pretty huge mistake by folding.

[Carroters]

[JJ, 66, 44, AQs-AJs, A6s, A4s, Q6s, Q4s, J6s, 64s, AQo-AJo, A9o-A6o, A4o]

Vs this we have 30% and a clear call. I've only added a small portion of potentially worse top pair hands and added no bluffs whatsoever.

[WeldPhaser]

like i said , your not gonna lose money listening to carroters

[griffey24]

Given pot odds and FD bricking, easy river call.

Facing a check I would bet fairly small vs a player like this, $1.5-$2

[rong]

I really don't see what a 58/0 donks the river with that we beat.

[griffey24]

I really don't see what a 58/0 donks the river with that we beat.

He is playing 58/0. I'm giving them enough credit to do something nonsensical 28% of the time, which is about all we need. I've seen people show up with hands like JTss, Q9ss (who knows why), and other than that a 58/0 will have pretty much every Kxss, Qxss, Jxss, etc etc.

Value hands on river:

A4 - 6
A6 - 6
46 - 9
44/66 - 6
QJss - 1
AJ - 6
AQ - 6
KTss/KThh - 2

42 combos

So he needs about 16 bluffs on the river for us to make a call. He has about 30 bricked FD's I'd imagine. Probably another 10 combos of random 4x/6x/mid pairs that might bluff the river. Probably another 20 combos of 57/78/35 type stuff. So total possible bluffs about 60.

If he bluffs a bit over a quarter of the time with his possible bluffs on the river, we should call.

This is worst case scenario. If he ever raises flop with two pairs or sets then that narrows his value call down/donk river range quite a bit.

[Pelion]

Thanks for the comments and combo work carroters and griffey. This is why I like to post standard hands once in a while . I was 90% sure this was a fold when I posted and am now convinced otherwise.

[rong]

Pelion, did you call?

[Pelion]

I did not

[daven]

He is playing 58/0. I'm giving them enough credit to do something nonsensical 28% of the time, which is about all we need.

^ agree entirely with this
river is a call
losing at showdown over half the time is irrelevant when you are facing $2 into $3.45

[jackvance]

I'd call. A lot of people will bet when they can't win don't underestimate that. Would he lead 2p on the river? A set and hands like that would have raised you already.

[Savy]

I'd call. A lot of people will bet when they can't win don't underestimate that. Would he lead 2p on the river? A set and hands like that would have raised you already.

Is this true for a 58/0 do you think? Assuming the line loose passive has something to do with post flop too.

Let's think about a passive players thought process. If he was in Pelions place on this river and someone checked the river and he had a hand like weak two pair or TP would he check back? Probably. Would he call a donk bet if someone led, probably.

I'd probably edge towards a fold, and check back if he had of checked.

Although after "plenty of hands" the description of the player really is inadequate imo.

[WeldPhaser]

Idk, this post has got interesting since yesterday morn, but i'll admit my preivious opinion was off. how can you really argue with the cold facts, and math griffey and carrots laid out. you can't . only needing 26% OTR, the missed fd's and missed low SD's give him plenty of incentive to bluff.

btw, it's nice to see the BC a blaze with posts...

[griffey24]

Also important to note that the only reason this is sort of close is cause villain is a passive fish and it's credible that he would call down two pairs/sets on a two-tone board, and also credible that he could have AJ/AQ flatting pre.

Clearly vs an aggro fish who we've seen raise two pairs/sets etc on flops and 3b AJ/AQ pre, this would be the easiest snap ever, because his value range for c/c, c/c, donk river would be so small (like only QJss, and even that hand might not donk river so confidently).

[Pelion]

vs an aggro fish who we've seen raise two pairs/sets etc on flops and 3b AJ/AQ pre, this would be the easiest snap ever, because his value range for c/c, c/c, donk river would be so small (like only QJss, and even that hand might not donk river so confidently).

Agreed. I think I'd call this pretty quickly against most regs too since it's such a weird value line (and moreso when sets and non-AQ 2pairs are raised earlier) although this could be a levelling war spot.

after "plenty of hands" the description of the player really is inadequate

From what I've seen he's exactly what you'd expect from a loose passive. Limp/calls and cold calls tonnes preflop. Minraises or calls nuts. Minbets fairly often with random shite. I think a lot of his 1AF is made up of random minbets with anything from TP to bottom pairs and the occasional random 2 cards but he is definitely erratic enough that he could be doing this rarely with weaker (but more often than 26%). I didn't include this the first time because it's pretty much stereotype for these preflop stats, but fair point for asking.

[surviva316]

Limp/calls and cold calls tonnes preflop. Minraises or calls nuts. Minbets fairly often with random shite. I think a lot of his 1AF is made up of random minbets with anything from TP to bottom pairs and the occasional random 2 cards but he is definitely erratic enough that he could be doing this rarely with weaker (but more often than 26%). I didn't include this the first time because it's pretty much stereotype for these preflop stats, but fair point for asking.

These are all very good reads. We can assume the preflop stuff, obviously, but I don't think the postflop reads are lolstandard across every 58/0. Common for sure, but not assumed imo.

As for the hand, this is kind of a weird way to play a hand that was two pair or better before the river. Why would he c/c down on a board that could fuck his monster, yet come alive once his hand was safe and unbeatable? If he's trying to let you hang yourself, then he's gonna keep letting you hang yourself when this total blank hits. It's a card that simultaneously made A4 safer against bluffs AND made it worse to value bet, and even retarded villains are at least vaguely aware of this fact because you only have to be thinking on like Level 1.25 to understand this.

So if he has a hand that beats us, I think the most likely hands are KT/AQ/QJss (19 combos), and everything else is really no more likely than missed flush draws and weird mergy hands like 76 that aren't really sure whether they're bluffing or value betting, they just don't feel like facing another bet. The latter's probably less likely from a passive betting more than PSB, but I think there's enough {who the fuck knows what} to give us 26% equity against a 58/0 who only has 19 likely value combos.


If villain checked, then holy fuck vbet/fold the river. Not even falling out of my chair when villain flips 63s/55/etc. Such a huge, massive, terrible leak that needs to be plugged immediately if you're checking back top pair decent kicker against this type of player when all draws miss. Like, if you're in no mood to heed any other advice in the BC right now, then just stop and read this paragraph twice and learn this and only this today.

[Carroters]

Yeah seriously the amount of agreement that we should check the river highlights a population leak at these stakes. The bad regs won't value bet anywhere near thin enough, don't be one of them.

[Pelion]

It's weird because I'd b/f AK here without really thinking, and wanted to check back AT without really thinking, when really they are almost the same hand.

How weak an ace do you bet here? A9 is only 50/50 vs any ace. How often do we think he is calling worse than Ax here?