JJ 150 deep vs reg.

[Carroters]

Villain is a reg running 19/18/6.5(3 bet) over 300 hands. This session he's 3 bet my utg open twice to which I've folded bith times, no real relevant history.

I think flatting pre is good, 4 bet getting it in without hisotry this deep seems meh to me. We're prolly doing well vs his range.

On the flop, his bet is fairly scary, raising obv jus gets it invs a range of QQ+ and good draws, and is therefore terrible. Folding seems a little weak, but then he might not even have like 99 TT ever here so when he sizes his c bet this big can I just fold the flop?

On the turn, I see no reason to bet sinces he's pretty much going to be c/f or c/jamming a lot of the time. If I want to get value vs TT (if he has it) or some 8x I can bet the river since I don't get 2 more streets anyways imo.

River sizing is pretty scary and I think my range is pretty damn strong looking when I call the flop, I don't think he'd expect me to fold TT-JJ here and it's kind of a spot I feel a lot of the less insane regs chose not to bluff in without more of a read. I elect to fold.

Thoughts?

No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($73.60)
BB ($209.05)
UTG ($103.65)
MP ($100)
CO ($161.65)
Hero (Button) ($160.15)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J, J
3 folds, Hero bets $3, 1 fold, BB raises $11, Hero calls $9

Flop: ($24.50) 3, 4, 8 (2 players)
BB bets $21, Hero calls $21

Turn: ($66.50) 5 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: ($66.50) Q (2 players)
BB bets $51, Hero folds

Total pot: $66.50

[Vi-Zer0Skill]

hand looks fine, but i see a metagame opportunity here because it seems to me that establishing a dynamic with regs where you can felt 99+ for 120-150bb (in CO/BTN vs blind situations) is pretty awesome.

1. 99-JJ become slightly +EV all in preflop hands, which seems better than using them versus bluff catchers versus regs with low bluff frequencies in 3bet pots.
2. once you've induced some light preflop action from your opponent, you can tighten up your range and it'll take them multiple all ins to adjust their range. and in the meantime your perceived range to a 3bet is weaker, AND when you add 99-JJ back in now you can start profitably felting them 100-130bb deep on low coordinated flops.
3. you'll get 4bet bluffed much less often (at SSNL)

what do you think?

[sauce123]

right, so, what do you think his 3betting range is ?

this is a pretty tight, but likely fine fold at 100nl.

you look great vs almost any range before the river bet, and only need ot be good 30% or so

[Carroters]

Thanks for the reply Sauce. You think he's bluffing enough with this sizing for river to be a call then? I felt like he could have overpairs he was planning to c/r the turn with as well as AQ, but he defo does have plenty air still in his range if he bluffs this large with it enough of the time, sizing kind of scared me tbh since a lot of meh regs will jus pluck out more 2/3rds std sizing for bluffsin large pots.

His 3 betting range, I'd say something like JJ+ AQ+ then some combos of light hands to make up the rest. While I haven't seen him show down anything after 3 betting and don't know what kind of hands he likes to 3 bet light with, he could have stuff like this to make up that part.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.094% 47.25% 00.84% 364093884 6490386.00 { JJ+, AQs+, A5s-A2s, 98s, 87s, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 51.906% 51.06% 00.84% 393462144 6490386.00 { JJ }

So I feel like being 150 deep calling just for a combination of set/implied odds and best hand value postflop is going to be okay, although it sucks to not know about his frequencys for barreling ect post flop. Think I'm still okay with calling pre.

Thoughts on this?

[Numbr2intheWorld]

There's a good chance that this reg is 3betting astronomically wider because you're deep imo.

[sauce123]

Thanks for the reply Sauce. You think he's bluffing enough with this sizing for river to be a call then? I felt like he could have overpairs he was planning to c/r the turn with as well as AQ, but he defo does have plenty air still in his range if he bluffs this large with it enough of the time, sizing kind of scared me tbh since a lot of meh regs will jus pluck out more 2/3rds std sizing for bluffsin large pots.

His 3 betting range, I'd say something like JJ+ AQ+ then some combos of light hands to make up the rest. While I haven't seen him show down anything after 3 betting and don't know what kind of hands he likes to 3 bet light with, he could have stuff like this to make up that part.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.094% 47.25% 00.84% 364093884 6490386.00 { JJ+, AQs+, A5s-A2s, 98s, 87s, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 51.906% 51.06% 00.84% 393462144 6490386.00 { JJ }

So I feel like being 150 deep calling just for a combination of set/implied odds and best hand value postflop is going to be okay, although it sucks to not know about his frequencys for barreling ect post flop. Think I'm still okay with calling pre.

Thoughts on this?

yea thats roughly what i came up with. you have to figure out also if he will vbet something like a weak pair hand which would very quickly swing it to a call if he even bluffs 10%

[sauce123]

65. 87, 86, 77 type of stuff,

[pocketfours]

There's a good chance that this reg is 3betting astronomically wider because you're deep imo.

Why would you want to 3bet astronomically wide OOP when deep?

[Carroters]

Highly doubt he value bets a weak pair often at all on the river, and I'm confident in saying that if he ever he does, his sizing is never this big.

[sauce123]

yea i like your fold carroters

[Numbr2intheWorld]

Why would you want to 3bet astronomically wide OOP when deep?

I wasnt saying its good to, i just see players often start going crazy when deep because they think they suddenly should play 100x as aggro so they can get paid