400nl - so who's gettin raped here?

[Micro2Macro]

villain is reg. seems fairly straightforward. ATS is 45%, high fold to 3bet.

cbet is ridic high like 88% so I c/r cuz 1) he can't have a hand to continue with that often 2) equity etc.

river is uhh...idk fps i guess. what do you guys think?

sry if i left out relevant info just ground out 2500vpps want to go sleep now )


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4.00 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($236.65)
MP ($349)
CO ($415.40)
Button ($328.60)
SB ($490)
Hero (BB) ($422.05)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K, J
2 folds, CO bets $8, 2 folds, Hero calls $4

Flop: ($18) Q, 9, 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $12, Hero raises to $40, CO calls $28

Turn: ($98) 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

River: ($98) 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $64, Hero raises to $192

[pocketfours]

I think you actually had quad sixes in this hand.

[griffey24]

I'd probably prefer a bet here, if I was going to bluff. At least a bet here reps a boat, flushes and quads. Now your line only reps 4 combos, 9's full and quad 6's.

You also might not always c/r river with those hands or check turn with those hands, so you rep maybe 1-2 hand combos.

[pocketfours]

I'd probably play K8ss like this as well.

[Genitruc]

i like it if he s able to ever read hands and find the fold button

[Ravageur]

someone post the 'u gonna get raped pic'

[Micro2Macro]

I'd probably prefer a bet here, if I was going to bluff. At least a bet here reps a boat, flushes and quads. Now your line only reps 4 combos, 9's full and quad 6's.

You also might not always c/r river with those hands or check turn with those hands, so you rep maybe 1-2 hand combos.

why can't i have a flush?

id prolly play 8c7c the same too.

[griffey24]

why can't i have a flush?

id prolly play 8c7c the same too.

Seems to be overplaying a flush here a bit. What are you expecting to get b/c by, that makes c/shoving a flush here better than just betting?

By the same token, if you are c/shoving for value with a straight here, what hands are you hoping will b/f this river to warrant your bluff here?

[Toadstool]

Why would you C/R a flush here, when it's highly unlikely he's value betting a pair on the river? he might bet a straight, but he would have called a bet anyway...don't really see how it's good, unless you just think he's got a load of air here, and will bluff a lot, but you're not gaining anything extra by raising as opposed to calling against that part of his range.

When you C/R this river with a flush I think you're pretty smoked against his calling range (depending on how high your flush is) - What does he think your range is when you C/R this river?

Just think you're repping a pretty thin range by C/R this river - also, his actual range is probably really polarised here

[sauce123]

villain is reg. seems fairly straightforward. ATS is 45%, high fold to 3bet.

cbet is ridic high like 88% so I c/r cuz 1) he can't have a hand to continue with that often 2) equity etc.

river is uhh...idk fps i guess. what do you guys think?

sry if i left out relevant info just ground out 2500vpps want to go sleep now )


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4.00 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($236.65)
MP ($349)
CO ($415.40)
Button ($328.60)
SB ($490)
Hero (BB) ($422.05)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K, J
2 folds, CO bets $8, 2 folds, Hero calls $4

Flop: ($18) Q, 9, 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $12, Hero raises to $40, CO calls $28

Turn: ($98) 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

River: ($98) 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $64, Hero raises to $192

This is pretty interesting actually.

So, the main thing you left out in your analysis is his turn cbet%, and this appears on your HeM HUD (though it includes 3bet pots as well, but let's leave that out and assume it is accurate). Without that stat you are only comparing two lines, flop c/r and flop c/c and not 5+: flop c/c turn c/c river c/mix, flop c/c turn c/r river mix, flop c/r turn mostly bet river mostly bet, flop c/c turn chk chk river bluff, flop c/c turn chk chk river showdown. And then you need to think about various runouts which you can loosely group into 1) fd hits, 2) fd misses, 3) 1 or more sd hits, 4) total blanks 5) paired boards and then various subsets containing overs or conjunctions thereof. Anyways, the turn cbet% is particularly salient for your actual hand because you have both showdown value and 3 nut outs, and 8 outs against the vast majority of his range beating you on the flop. So, check/raise and then getting 3bet with a range that contains a moderate % of semibluffs (or worse, total bluffs) is a moderate equity disaster.

Another important stat is fold cbet to raise, your c/r wins a ton of equity if he folds a hand like JT or AK or K9 to your c/r.

Ok, fine, I'll be helpful now. Based on empirical work I've done, flop c/r and flop c/c are going to have similar equity here against typical populations of 6max opponents, which isn't to say that they may have wildly divergent value against individual opponents within the populations. Therefore, to make my range more difficult to read I typically mix my strategy with your hand in this situation if i have no knowledge of my opponent. Whichever line you choose, you are going to make a considerable profit relative to folding because cbetting 88% on this board with the way your ranges interact is going to be way too much on the part of the pfr if you exploit in a strong way. Your method of exploitation should be weighted more towards flop passivity with weak and medium draws when your opponent is passive on later streets (ie a turn cbet gives away a ton of information about his range which you can use to make a lot of good folds) and more towards flop aggression when your opponent is aggressive on later streets (ie he is likely to bet twice with K9 and AK and JT and 87 against which you have 52% equity but are forced to fold the turn mostly). It also may be correct to c/r if your opponent continues past the flop with an extremely wide range, but then folds too much to turn or river barrels.

I suppose to frame the analysis in more GT type vocabulary, the 88% cbet opens a hole in his game: either he has to fold a ton on later streets to not be exploitable by value betting/raising or he has to call a ton on later streets not to be exploitable by relentless bluffing/semibluffing. You can use your HeM stats to find which way on this axis he is disposed and exploit accordingly, or you can just stop folding the flop to cbet and showdown/apply aggression in a balanced manner if you want to hedge against his possible later street adjustments.

[Genitruc]

pfft that what i was gonna say lol

great post sauce

[nutsinho]

donk123

[IowaSkinsFan]

donk123

I was about to post about how id c/c most of the time here on the flop until I saw this post. I think lead flop, at least, is the best play.

[sauce123]

I was about to post about how id c/c most of the time here on the flop until I saw this post. I think lead flop, at least, is the best play.

this is definitely wrong, our opponent cbets 88% !

donking flop here is giving him a free pass to not make a mistake when he has already basically told you he is going to make one.

that being said, donking might be ok on this board in other situations, though i dont donk at all in my game really

[Ravageur]

this is definitely wrong, our opponent cbets 88% !

donking flop here is giving him a free pass to not make a mistake when he has already basically told you he is going to make one.

that being said, donking might be ok on this board in other situations, though i dont donk at all in my game really

except when you re playing Galfond proteges at PLO hu?

[Micro2Macro]

This is pretty interesting actually.

So, the main thing you left out in your analysis is his turn cbet%, and this appears on your HeM HUD (though it includes 3bet pots as well, but let's leave that out and assume it is accurate). Without that stat you are only comparing two lines, flop c/r and flop c/c and not 5+: flop c/c turn c/c river c/mix, flop c/c turn c/r river mix, flop c/r turn mostly bet river mostly bet, flop c/c turn chk chk river bluff, flop c/c turn chk chk river showdown. And then you need to think about various runouts which you can loosely group into 1) fd hits, 2) fd misses, 3) 1 or more sd hits, 4) total blanks 5) paired boards and then various subsets containing overs or conjunctions thereof. Anyways, the turn cbet% is particularly salient for your actual hand because you have both showdown value and 3 nut outs, and 8 outs against the vast majority of his range beating you on the flop. So, check/raise and then getting 3bet with a range that contains a moderate % of semibluffs (or worse, total bluffs) is a moderate equity disaster.

Another important stat is fold cbet to raise, your c/r wins a ton of equity if he folds a hand like JT or AK or K9 to your c/r.

Ok, fine, I'll be helpful now. Based on empirical work I've done, flop c/r and flop c/c are going to have similar equity here against typical populations of 6max opponents, which isn't to say that they may have wildly divergent value against individual opponents within the populations. Therefore, to make my range more difficult to read I typically mix my strategy with your hand in this situation if i have no knowledge of my opponent. Whichever line you choose, you are going to make a considerable profit relative to folding because cbetting 88% on this board with the way your ranges interact is going to be way too much on the part of the pfr if you exploit in a strong way. Your method of exploitation should be weighted more towards flop passivity with weak and medium draws when your opponent is passive on later streets (ie a turn cbet gives away a ton of information about his range which you can use to make a lot of good folds) and more towards flop aggression when your opponent is aggressive on later streets (ie he is likely to bet twice with K9 and AK and JT and 87 against which you have 52% equity but are forced to fold the turn mostly). It also may be correct to c/r if your opponent continues past the flop with an extremely wide range, but then folds too much to turn or river barrels.

I suppose to frame the analysis in more GT type vocabulary, the 88% cbet opens a hole in his game: either he has to fold a ton on later streets to not be exploitable by value betting/raising or he has to call a ton on later streets not to be exploitable by relentless bluffing/semibluffing. You can use your HeM stats to find which way on this axis he is disposed and exploit accordingly, or you can just stop folding the flop to cbet and showdown/apply aggression in a balanced manner if you want to hedge against his possible later street adjustments.

given my sample his turn barrel was 44%m (4/9). so it seems unlikely he's a barrel monkey and on a board of this texture i wouldnt expect someone cbetting with such frequency to barrel it too often (i think?) because when i call once it doesn't really look like I'm going anywhere and when his range for getting to the turn is going to be so weak that makes a good argument towards c/c. I also think on this board in particular c/c might be better than c/r for the reasons you stated about how getting 3bet blows us off what is really good equity vs his cbet range. then again, he seemed like the type of player who wouldn't go nuts over a c/r by 3bet bluffing/semibluffing it - my speculation here arises from his standard behavior when facing 3bets: to just fold alot and not 4bet much at all aside from the hands he wants to get all in preflop. At the time i debated all 3 options: lead, c/c, c/r. I disregarded lead since he just cbets too much (not sure why nuts want to lead here vs this guy..maybe didnt see his cbet stat? although, c/c and getting barreled off our hand sucks and c/r getting 3bet sucks so i guess that leaves leading looking attractive. plus if we lead we basically take away the chance of him cbetting profitably - does that even make sense since he cbets too much? lol). as for whether to c/c or c/r at that point both seemed to be pretty even so i just flipped a coin in my head and went for c/r. i think i tend to just mix it up here quite a bit without any real specific reads.

you say that since his high cbet % is a hole in his game..so basically, we need to just find out what street he's folding the most on and then keep on attacking up to that point? (i.e. say he always peels flop rlly light but folds turn w/o picking up equity then we can just go to barrel town on the turn, and when he does continue to the turn, we know we have little FE on river). also, his fold to flop raise stat was 40 or 50% i think over 6 or 7 trials.

now to the people saying c/r'ing a flush is 'overplaying our hand' i dont think it really matters whether i actually c/r a flush here or not on the river but whether or not villain can perceive my range to include such hands so that when he bets river with an over pair or Qx his decision becomes more difficult as to what other hands i could be vbetting other than just 6 combos or w/e of boats and then the rest air. if hes the type of player to never make hero calls on a scare card like this then yeah, i guess we are value cutting ourselves. but if he's the type to b/c because he wants to 'own us' with some 'sick call' then c/r for thin value is obv the nuts...

as far as his range being polarized if he's not betting 1 pair here then it seems like an easy c/c with any bluff catcher that has decent blockers. seems bad to not vbet at least AQ here in his spot when surely he's gonna want to be able to float this flop/bluff river (i guess?)

sorry if this post is rly long and unorganized

[pocketfours]

now to the people saying c/r'ing a flush is 'overplaying our hand' i dont think it really matters whether i actually c/r a flush here or not on the river but whether or not villain can perceive my range to include such hands

I think checkraising a flush is ok but I don't think you will be perceived to have a whole lot of them here.

[Micro2Macro]

I think checkraising a flush is ok but I don't think you will be perceived to have a whole lot of them here.

yeah i think i can agree with you here. alot of regs are probably like 'oh look this random tag c/r flop checks turn pairing board then c/r river HMMMM NICE ELITE SLOWPLAYED QUADS MORON LOL'

but vs someone who doesn't have a fold button or has downs syndrome i think c/r'ing a flush is pretty awesome because they just assume you are always bluffing and can't value bet there or w/e but then fail to realize most of the air that c/'rd the flop gets there anyway lol.

[pocketfours]

yeah i think i can agree with you here. alot of regs are probably like 'oh look this random tag c/r flop checks turn pairing board then c/r river HMMMM NICE ELITE SLOWPLAYED QUADS MORON LOL'

but vs someone who doesn't have a fold button or has downs syndrome i think c/r'ing a flush is pretty awesome because they just assume you are always bluffing and can't value bet there or w/e but then fail to realize most of the air that c/'rd the flop gets there anyway lol.

You are just reiterating my point.

[Micro2Macro]

You are just reiterating my point.

truuu. im up late tho and running on about 4hrs of sleep so im just rambling now.

[griffey24]

M2M I think you just have to take a side here. Either its good to c/r a flush here, cause people can't fold, in which case your bluff is bad, or its bad to c/r a flush here cause nothing worse calls, in which case your bluff is maybe ok.

[IowaSkinsFan]

this is definitely wrong, our opponent cbets 88% !

donking flop here is giving him a free pass to not make a mistake when he has already basically told you he is going to make one.

that being said, donking might be ok on this board in other situations, though i dont donk at all in my game really

Should we not make the assumption here first, that its incredibly more likely this guy is cbetting 100% of k33, a22, 223 type boards, and that it is plausible he is not cbetting a board like this with a high frequency? That would lower my estimated cbet for him to 75-70%, which still seems like a large amount on this board.

I suppose you're right though, KJ here is one of our best equity c/r draw hands against his range that he calls a c/r with. I believe vs an opponent who cbets optimally or less than optimally on this board that our best move is to c/r this board with the two nut hands in our range (Q9, 66) with our Asxs hands, and combo draws. Our range is so heavy with non nut draw hands, I think this is a spot where we are going to get looked up constantly with less than the nuts on a lot of runouts.

That being said, discussing the actual c/r on the river. I can't really think of many hands besides 87 that is less than a flush that he will consistently play this way up to the river and bet. I suppose QJ/QT could bet here but it seems like a spew unless its an attempt to bluff catch.

On the other hand, I really like betting the river big. He has a wide range of hands that you're losing to that are not going to bet the river.

[Micro2Macro]

M2M I think you just have to take a side here. Either its good to c/r a flush here, cause people can't fold, in which case your bluff is bad, or its bad to c/r a flush here cause nothing worse calls, in which case your bluff is maybe ok.

i said against some people its fine and others its not. we shouldnt just do the same thing here vs every single reg lol. that would be auto piloting.

the thing is im dealing with imperfect info here...i dont know exactly if c/r bluff will work or if its a spot i should be c/r'ing for real thin value. but given what info i do have on this guy i felt like a bluff would be more appropriate.

i like isf's plan of just betting river espec when im not sure what hands hes betting in this spot (and therefore am not sure what I am trying to accomplish with a c/r)

[sauce123]

i said against some people its fine and others its not. we shouldnt just do the same thing here vs every single reg lol. that would be auto piloting.

the thing is im dealing with imperfect info here...i dont know exactly if c/r bluff will work or if its a spot i should be c/r'ing for real thin value. but given what info i do have on this guy i felt like a bluff would be more appropriate.

i like isf's plan of just betting river espec when im not sure what hands hes betting in this spot (and therefore am not sure what I am trying to accomplish with a c/r)

You're river c/r is awful. It's pretty much a logic mistake: when the flush + straight hits and he bets the river into a flop checkraiser he effectively polarizes his range to flush, straight+/bluff, where bluff= missed sd, maybe up to mid pair if hes super frisky. So your play with KJ is to fold or call, not to raise. If you decide you want a river checkraise range, just do it with a hand like T7 or JT where calling is dominated. In this case, calling dominates raising.

Against that river betting range a checkraise bluff is only a good play when you think that some portion of his polarized value range is going to be folding: so your play is good if you are trying to make a flush or straight fold. I think you said you are trying to represent a flush, which means that you're likely not getting very many flushes to fold if you and the villain are on the same planet.

cliffs: call or fold or bet river yourself like ISF said, do anything but c/r.

[sauce123]

I also think a river bluff with KJ is too thin here, id be much more likely to c/c than bluff with this hand unless villain was really really tight and i was making a conscious effort to raise my bluffing freq in this spot. I would however bluff with maybe T7 or JT, to get him off T7 or JT which are almost certain to bluff me if I check as well as KJ/AK/mid pair/ maybe Qx

[Micro2Macro]

If my c/r range OTF is perceived to be polarized wouldn't villain be better off checking back the turn with Qx and overpairs so that he can bluff catch rivers and protect the weaker hands in his range that he wants to get to showdown so he rep a wider range for the times he takes a delay float line when he believes me to be full of it?

That's how I assumed he would play those hands but I guess it's wrong.

[sauce123]

If my c/r range OTF is perceived to be polarized wouldn't villain be better off checking back the turn with Qx and overpairs so that he can bluff catch rivers and protect the weaker hands in his range that he wants to get to showdown so he rep a wider range for the times he takes a delay float line when he believes me to be full of it?

That's how I assumed he would play those hands but I guess it's wrong.

not sure exactly what you're saying here. I think people will think your flop cr range is polarized to strong made hands/various semibluffs, but very few pure bluffs. Against that range the only hands he can possible hold which are going to be 'delay floats' are like 43o or something, if he has A high then his absolute hand strength is already higher than a fair portion of your flop c/r range. Therefore he really has no reason (if he is thinking) to treat Q4 any differently from AJ in this situation, although obviously there are some differences- with AJ a hand like 87 has 6 more outs on the turn. Also, we can expect him to hold a bunch of semibluffs himself.

When you check the turn then, he has the option to bet pretty much every hand in his range, some for semibluff fold equity (87, xxss), some for protection/value (ie AJ+) and maybe very occasionally a pure bluff. He didn't, and neither you or I knows exactly how to interpret that, though I think most rational players are more likely to hold a hand with showdown value when they check here.

When he bets the river, he is rejecting the option to showdown with this range, and is betting against a polarized semibluff/strong value range (most of the semibluffs have improved) you defined on the flop, but probably weakened on average by betting the turn. It is pretty obviously irrational for him to bet mid pair or top pair in a situation like this unless it is with the intention to induce a shove from KJ

[nutsinho]

agree with almost all of what sauce has said in the thread

@ISF- i would almost never lead into the PFR on this texture vs any reg