SC in multiway 3bet pot

[Micro2Macro]

you are forgetting the times utg1 4bets and you have to fold

[Viscaro]

you are forgetting the times utg1 4bets and you have to fold

I'm last to act, he's already acted (he flats the 3bet).

Daven, after doing this analysis I do feel it is quite close, but I think it is marginally +ev to make this call.
I don't think my calculations only work when he has aces, in fact I think he will be stacking off alot more than 50% with aces. The reason I use 50% is because this is what is used for the 5/10 set rule. I found this post on the 3rd page of the 2+2 thread

Jouster777[/B]]I used the 5/10 rule in the set mining situation as a benchmark to what % of villain’s stack we should expect to capture (on average) when we flop a big made hand. We will flop a set = 11.8%, and need to call less than 7.5% of avg. villain’s stack/avg. situation to merit a call. If this is a EV neutral situation then: EV=0=.118*(.075S+I)-.882*(0.075S)
Where S=effective stack size, I = implied money to be added to pot
This leads to: I=.49S…so our expectation when we hit a set is to capture 50% of villain’s stack

For anyone that is unfamilar with the 5/10 rule, it states that we can call anything below 5% of effective stack very easily, we should always fold if its above 10%, and anything inbetween depends on reads on villain and position. This applies to pocket pairs in a set mining situation.

I reccommend reading the 2+2 thread up till at least page 4.

[daven]

Daven, after doing this analysis I do feel it is quite close, but I think it is marginally +ev to make this call.
I don't think my calculations only work when he has aces, in fact I think he will be stacking off alot more than 50% with aces. The reason I use 50% is because this is what is used for the 5/10 set rule. I found this post on the 3rd page of the 2+2 thread

so, say he has AA and is stacking off 65% (sometimes against your flush and you aren't even huge favourite then), KK and is stacking off on non-ace high boards only, AK and will be hesitant to stack off (especially 3-way), etc, and 50% is still incredibly optimistic. Sure, use it if you want cos they did in that thread and it makes maths easier and poor play easier to justify - but do it critically rather than blindly.

For anyone that is unfamilar with the 5/10 rule, it states that we can call anything below 5% of effective stack very easily, we should always fold if its above 10%, and anything inbetween depends on reads on villain and position. This applies to pocket pairs in a set mining situation.

I reccommend reading the 2+2 thread up till at least page 4.

someone want to link the old/new set mining stack-size thread = consensus ends up that calling a raise for set mining really is pretty bad unless you're calling like 1/15 of villain's stack = cos fuck, take your typicaly 16-12 MP open range and really how often are they stacking off behind?

also - most of the people responding have read the thread you linked, and discounted the stuff that is less relevant now than it used to be.

[Viscaro]

so, say he has AA and is stacking off 65% (sometimes against your flush and you aren't even huge favourite then), KK and is stacking off on non-ace high boards only, AK and will be hesitant to stack off (especially 3-way), etc, and 50% is still incredibly optimistic. Sure, use it if you want cos they did in that thread and it makes maths easier and poor play easier to justify - but do it critically rather than blindly.
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I'd like to point out the 50% stacking off rate actually means on average we get half of his stack, not that he puts his whole stack in 50% of the time. The maths wouldn't work. If he calls a hpsb on the flop he already has over 30% ((3.75+5.60)/24.95=0.375 or 37.5%) of the effective stack committed. If AK hits top top on the flop he's likely going to at least cbet this much. At these stakes villains find it hard to get away from top top with so much already committed. Even KK will likely call a hpsb if an ace hits. It's not hard to see us easily getting 50% on average against a tight range.

people always think they're better at semi-bluffing than they really are - cos they suck at estimating fold equity and ranges with any accuracy. How are you planning to play QJ7 with a flush draw vs huge heat on that board?
noting that utg+1's range has so much QQ and serious heat often leaves us with heavily discounted equity on our draws..

With the dead money in the pot we can profitably get it in even against a range of AKdd JJ-QQ, AA. If be serious heat you mean multiway action thats even better for us.

I think it's pretty clear that flatting flop bets here with bear flushdraws is going to be way better than semi bluffing due to how little FE we have should someone willingly bet these boards given ranges/preflop action etc etc.

This is obvious as often we will have almost direct odds to draw to hit the turn. I was simply stating that if villains range is wider semi bluffing and one pair hands are more profitable, ie the possibility that villains squeezing light is not a reason to fold pre.

[daven]

I'd like to point out the 50% stacking off rate actually means on average we get half of his stack, not that he puts his whole stack in 50% of the time. The maths wouldn't work.

cheers dude....

If he calls a hpsb on the flop he already has over 30% ((3.75+5.60)/24.95=0.375 or 37.5%) of the effective stack committed. If AK hits top top on the flop he's likely going to at least cbet this much. At these stakes villains find it hard to get away from top top with so much already committed. Even KK will likely call a hpsb if an ace hits. It's not hard to see us easily getting 50% on average against a tight range.

thing is, we don't have fold equity when we raise here, and, wow, awesome, we get it in 35% or something. Loving that shit. Thread has been valuable though. Nice.

With the dead money in the pot we can profitably get it in even against a range of AKdd JJ-QQ, AA. If be serious heat you mean multiway action thats even better for us.

lol serious heat means sets and dominating draws... sounds great with our draws.