Quote Originally Posted by Micro2Macro View Post
you are forgetting the times utg1 4bets and you have to fold
I'm last to act, he's already acted (he flats the 3bet).

Daven, after doing this analysis I do feel it is quite close, but I think it is marginally +ev to make this call.
I don't think my calculations only work when he has aces, in fact I think he will be stacking off alot more than 50% with aces. The reason I use 50% is because this is what is used for the 5/10 set rule. I found this post on the 3rd page of the 2+2 thread

Quote Originally Posted by [B
Jouster777[/B]]I used the 5/10 rule in the set mining situation as a benchmark to what % of villain’s stack we should expect to capture (on average) when we flop a big made hand. We will flop a set = 11.8%, and need to call less than 7.5% of avg. villain’s stack/avg. situation to merit a call. If this is a EV neutral situation then: EV=0=.118*(.075S+I)-.882*(0.075S)
Where S=effective stack size, I = implied money to be added to pot
This leads to: I=.49S…so our expectation when we hit a set is to capture 50% of villain’s stack
For anyone that is unfamilar with the 5/10 rule, it states that we can call anything below 5% of effective stack very easily, we should always fold if its above 10%, and anything inbetween depends on reads on villain and position. This applies to pocket pairs in a set mining situation.

I reccommend reading the 2+2 thread up till at least page 4.