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 Originally Posted by jimmy44
@caddie: when you say call turn, you're saying that his most likely range is AJ or Jx (for a chop)? Don't you think a set might bet the same way?
His range consists of AJ, Jx, sets, and some 2 pair hands, possibly AA. If we raise enough to deny him immediate odds to boating up his 2pair/sets hands, he will likely just fold since he's a nit and there's an obvious straight possible. If he shoves he will have Jx combos, one of which will be freerolling vs us (KJcc) and AJ, and we will either be drawing dead, chopping, or at the ass end of a freeroll, all of which suck.
If he checks a blank river, we can heavily weight his hand range to non straights, and get in a decent value bet. If he does bet a blank river, we can still profitably call since his range will still be wide enough to include all those 2pair/sets hands which will likely think they are still ahead.
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