river decision

[voo-doo]

I think you could raise him more. Ask yourself what villain c/r with on the river here? What can villain fold to a $10 bet that he calls to a $7 bet?

as he was so passive i asked myself that and figured he'd lead with his 2pair mostly, so i judged his check raise as sets 33 TT 77 or a smaller flush and maybe AJs...
heat of the moment stuff versus a villain who i hoped would 4bet my min raise 3bet, meh hence the post to see how others would perceive it...

[OngBonga]

as he was so passive i asked myself that and figured he'd lead with his 2pair mostly, so i judged his check raise as sets 33 TT 77 or a smaller flush and maybe AJs...
heat of the moment stuff versus a villain who i hoped would 4bet my min raise 3bet, meh hence the post to see how others would perceive it...

My problem with this logic in this spot is that villain nearly never has a set here. If he flopped it, he bets the flop because it's scary, and if he didn't flop it, he has an overpair, which he also bets on this flop. Since the flop was check-check, we can be 99% sure villain does not have set/overpair.

He could have 2pr of course, but then I think he folds that to the $7bet, so we might as well bet $10 because if he's calling his 9high flush for $7, he'll very probably call it for $10 too. I wouldn't want to bet much larger than that though because his hand is foldable, especially since if he thinks about it for long enough you can really only have AdJd.

[voo-doo]

My problem with this logic in this spot is that villain nearly never has a set here. If he flopped it, he bets the flop because it's scary, and if he didn't flop it, he has an overpair, which he also bets on this flop. Since the flop was check-check, we can be 99% sure villain does not have set/overpair.

He could have 2pr of course, but then I think he folds that to the $7bet, so we might as well bet $10 because if he's calling his 9high flush for $7, he'll very probably call it for $10 too. I wouldn't want to bet much larger than that though because his hand is foldable, especially since if he thinks about it for long enough you can really only have AdJd.

i'd disagree with the above Ong, this villain would definitely check a set to the raiser, especially a TAGGY utg raiser....

[OngBonga]

i'd disagree with the above Ong, this villain would definitely check a set to the raiser, especially a TAGGY utg raiser....

Perhaps, though I'd certainly expect set or KK to bet closer to the pot on the turn, though I'm not entirely convinced he does check this very often. I usually check over to the raiser if I hit my set oop, but not on a scary flop unless I'm 100% sure the raiser is betting.

You'd know better than me the tendancies of this particular player, but I run at similar stats to him and I'd donk this flop nearly 100% of the time with a set.