Operation Winning is a Habit

[Robb]

Life is the shizzle. Poker - I've played 6 HUT $1's tonight and won 5. My thought: never underestimate the influence of the cards on your winnings. Like to think I'm awesome, but...

Here's a hand I've been thinking over. Villain is TAGG standard but a bit too passive post.

No Limit Holdem Tournament
2 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
$1 + $0.10 Heads Up Sit & Go

Stacks:
SB (805)
Hero (BB) (2,195)

Blinds: 20/40

Pre-Flop: (60, 2 players) Hero is BB 7 A
SB raises to 200, 160 to Hero (2155)?

This raise is larger than his standard 2x open - he uses 3x sometimes, too. Options: Fold, Call or Raise.

Fold: Pluses - Small pot, don't give away any of commanding chip lead when likely behind. Minuses - I've noted a big bet / small hand trend, but it's only a possible read at this point.

Call: Pluses - good implied odds for flop plus in position post. Minuses - no post flop leverage, likely have get it all in to get a fold, have to fold to any reasonable donk bet on the flop.

Raise: Pluses - chance to win a big pot right away, probably not much worse than 40-60 if called. Minuses - can easily give away the chip lead.

I think (after some calculating) this hand hits the flop about 40% of the time, but when it misses it misses comprehensively. Of the 40% it's about 1/3 Axx, 1/3 7xx and 1/3 FD's.

Easy fold, now that I analyze it. Any thoughts appreciated, tho.

Life update - I finished a great family room in our basement this Fall, and I got promoted early to full professor a couple months back. My Summer Honors program has (so far) survived the budget crisis (SummerHonors.org), and the twins turn 7 next week - two birthday parties in two days.

And I'm up just over $2 in HUT's, after losing 2 of 3 $1 tourneys last night and winning a handful tonight. Hope everyone is good. I'll be trolling around a bit, checking slevin's blog and generally seeing what FTR is up to.

[daven]

the hand is a fold. Don't bleed now when you got him by the balls, especially vs a non-standard open.

Life is the shizzle.

good to hear

Life update - I finished a great family room in our basement this Fall, and I got promoted early to full professor a couple months back. My Summer Honors program has (so far) survived the budget crisis (SummerHonors.org), and the twins turn 7 next week - two birthday parties in two days.

nice hands.

[Robb]

the hand is a fold. Don't bleed now when you got him by the balls, especially vs a non-standard open.

Good to hear from you, Dave.

Yeah, I folded, but I'm rusty and it took me a few seconds to think it all the way through - I nearly timed out (he was a fish, and I played him a couple times afterwards and confirmed it). So I decided to mark it and review, more for practice than any concern I had missed the read. And A7 is NOT a great hand, though it's probably along the lines of what he had, reading backwards from other hands I saw him play later.

Yeah, life's been good, and I'm really getting into poker again, thinking about it at work (like now) and having that "can't wait to play" feeling again every evening. Maybe I can grind a bit in the next few months, and get out of the nanos up to the baby-micros!!