WW 2013 Edition: The Conglomerate

[bigred]

hey bigred
now is your time
your time to shine
to give the rundown
of what is and what isnt
then we do what you say
and village wins
then you will forever be known
as the villager we deserve
but not the one we need right now

wtf is this shit

[bigred]

seriously wuf, its like you're not even trying

[wufwugy]

Yeah, that's probably my best contribution to FTR

so ur basically saying im a drag to have in game

thats okay. i only play well when in three way argument with rilla and ong

im gonna mod next game tho, gonna be no nights in a fashion i made up, gonna be great, but u wont play cuz ur tired of game, no problem, we only pretend to like you anyways

[wufwugy]

seriously wuf, its like you're not even trying

it's called open form poetry. no rules, all the rage in modernism. aristotle and aeschylus and sappho would have frowned upon it, but age of anxiety loves that shit

[bigred]

so ur basically saying im a drag to have in game

thats okay. i only play well when in three way argument with rilla and ong

im gonna mod next game tho, gonna be no nights in a fashion i made up, gonna be great, but u wont play cuz ur tired of game, no problem, we only pretend to like you anyways

soooooooooomedayyyyyyyyy........

[wufwugy]

i thot u wuda like that tho, i made u batman. u were fucking batman brah

[bigred]

Whatever happened to panic at the disco?

[bigred]

Here's a haiku uppercut for you wuf

It must bother you
Despite your verbose attempts
I'm the clever one

[wufwugy]

you're the clever one
your mom goes to college
seriously, she does

[wufwugy]

dude these aren't even haikus
what in the fuck are you smoking
this is a fucking haiku

[daven]

And a 2vs1 endgame is much better than a 3vs1 endgame. Think about it, in a 3vs1 we need 3 votes to lynch, thus all three villagers need to be in agreement, not just two villagers. With a higher villager to wolf ratio, there is an increased chance of a villager getting lynched. But this is all irrelevant because we can't change it, we face an awkward final day if we don't get this right in the next two lynches.

true, but if two people vote early for the same player and don't move then that's also a lynch come day end. As you say, it's pretty much hypothetical now. Cheers for the explanation though.

I wish it were this simple. Unfortunately, from my pov, you need to be added to this group.

fair enough. Go read through my posts, look at my votes and timing, whatever it takes for you to realise i'm a villager. I'm obviously going to be looking closely at you too if we don't hit a wolf today. That list is where i'm most expecting to see a wolf right now. Of course none of us should consider any more than three players lock-villager = those who have been looked up by the seer + ourselves for those of us who are villagers. Hoopy seems like a villager based on some votes days ago and 'feel' and your say-so about some gizmo votes - I note that Jackvance didn't think that those votes i pointed out cleared him and that he advised lynching boog/hoopy/aubrey in any order. You're also not among my main suspects because you 'seem' villager in a bunch of your posts, but you also wanted to start a wagon on Jackvance and have posted all sorts of theories that i haven't always followed or tried to get to the bottom of - particularly during your one-on-one with Wufwugy during the Jyms/Wufwugy wagons.

Like i said in an earlier post, i think we all need to take the time to do a full read-through at some point. For now though, i see no reason not to Lynch Aubrey. She's among our most likely wolf candidates and if she is somehow a villager then having her among the last four standing is going to be pretty shitty, particularly if Wufwugy is a wolf.

[daven]

bigred lobbin bombs like donkey kong wearing thong schlong throbbin all night long

best wolf-hunting you've done in ages.

time for some snob: Haiku = 5/7/5 plus the cutting link between two elements in the verse. Take the link out and you just have an empty 5/7/5 verse structure

[Keith]

Actually forget the self lynch , i thought that the day got reset when i suggested it but thats only for the wolves. But i was also interested in who was willing to try to prove they were villagers by putting themselves forwards as candidates to self lynch.

Wuf is insistent that he is pissed off with this game and doesn't want to play in the endgame, I think he's wolfy as hell, JV didn't . Who give's a shit about all the haiku bullshit that seemed to go on for a page that has to be continually looked over when rereading the thread, its just a distraction . Wolves probably eat bigred tonight or tomorrow. Seer said wuf would have to be lynched eventually . Village needs people interested in the game on the last day and wuf is quite clearly saying this isnt him.

lynch wuf

Gator is probably the best choice tomorrow in a 4 villager last day scenario as he hasn't done a lot all game and can't really prove his villageriness except for putting his name forward as a safe lynch ,but he's quite capable of doing that as a wolf knowing the village would be unlikely to take him up on it.

[GatorJH]

you guys keep forgetting that I rarely, try to pull off massive levels. The next three nights are awesome in that I have more time than I have had in a couple of weeks and should be able to help narrow this down. I will look at the thread tonight focused on wuf and daven as they top my list. Aubrey is a possibility but I will be VERY surprised if she shows up as a wolf.

Btw, I am pretty surprised I haven't gotten more heat this game.

[OngBonga]

I hate gator in endgame. Every word I read of his fills me with more paranoia. I am glad to see him looking at wuf and daven here though.

Of course none of us should consider any more than three players lock-villager = those who have been looked up by the seer + ourselves for those of us who are villagers.

daven, again we disagree. I wanted to consider jyms a lock villager because it was obvious he was a villager based on the day banana faked seer. There was a strong case for boog being a villager too. If they were still alive, like they should be, then I see a nice easy path to victory.

I want hoopy left. If he's the wolf, he wins because he went after banana and pascal early, and then tried to help steer the village towards gizmo. That would be a sick good performance from hoopy if he's wolf, and quite frankly deserves to win vs a village that lynches two villagers who should've helped me at final day.

I want to lynch wuf, I hate the way he contributed towards the jyms lynch, I hate that he was happy to kill boog, he's dodged gizmo all game if I recall correctly, he's not playing like a villager as far as I can see. But he wasn't the only one left on both jyms and boog, so I need to do some work.

I'm not voting until I've read more. I'm looking particularly for those who seemed unwilling to put gizmo's head on the block, because he's such a good wolf that there's no way they would've wanted him gone.

I think it's gonna be one of daven, wuf or gator. I think that's who we need to lynch over the next three lynches. More later.

[Hoopy]

On page 5 (100 posts per page) and nothing stands out apart from Gator rescinding pascal on day 1 when he never actually voted for him.

MORE HAIKU? OK

A lurker status
Post every now and then (every is 3)
Hoopy shows the way

I forgive bigred for being useless this game, haiku's make me happy.

[OngBonga]

Ok, notes as I read through...

daven is probably a villager, he's pointing at pascal early and post #57 banana votes for daven, pointing at noobs.

#63 gator votes daven, building the wagon banana tried to start. I doubt gator drops this vote as wolf.

#70 - pascal -

Agreed daven is looking wolfy. Daven, is this your very first WW game?

Daven is looking like a villager.

#93 gator -

I don't say this often, but I like Boog's thought process here.

rescind pascal, lynch Jyms

goddam gator why don't you make it obvious when you're a villager? Not locking him as villager yet.

#97 aubrey -

just for the record i've been lurking like a motherfucker all day while at work (it was a slow-ish day) and have been second guessing myself every time i thought i had something to say.

I can't see a noob wolf saying this.

That's up to post 100. I'm gonna be doing this in bits over the next day or two, because it's a huge read and I'm kinda busy still.

So far, wuf > gator > aubrey > daven > hoopy

[OngBonga]

On page 5 (100 posts per page) and nothing stands out apart from Gator rescinding pascal on day 1 when he never actually voted for him.

This is the most suspicious thing I've seen hoopy say all game. Fuck you hoopy, you were my lock villager. Stop making it harder for me. In first 100 posts, it should be clearer to you that daven isn't a wolf. So why not say so? Do you not want us to clear villagers?

[Hoopy]

This is the most suspicious thing I've seen hoopy say all game. Fuck you hoopy, you were my lock villager. Stop making it harder for me. In first 100 posts, it should be clearer to you that daven isn't a wolf. So why not say so? Do you not want us to clear villagers?

I considered him a villager already, nothing new was gleaned from those posts.

[OngBonga]

Ok fair enough. For my part, I was starting to doubt my daven villager read, but this d1 interaction has me feeling better about him.

[Hoopy]

Vote Count 1.05
Pascal (4): TLR, Daven, Ongbonga, Wufwugy
Daven(3): DroptheBanana, Jackvance, Bigred
Fulksey (6): Boog690, Gabe, Pascal, Nightgizmo, Xtr1000, aubrey
JackVance (1): Hoopy
Rong (1): GatorJH
Boog (1): Keith

Not Voting, , Fulsky, Rong, Bikes, and Jyms

Check this out, around the middle of day 1. The 3 living people on Pascal get villager points as pascal was definitely a viable lynch day 1.

DTB put a random vote on daven early.

[Hoopy]

If we look at vote count 3.04 or BooG's post #1636 Nightgizmo stayed on wuf when it was a race between him and DTB.

Since DTB was dead sooner rather than later with his fake seer claim it would make very little sense for gizmo to go after wuf when the voting was so tight if he was a wolf. Consider the fact that 1-2 hours before the end it looked like wuf was getting lynched. Bad for the wolf team.

[Hoopy]

About the whole pascal skype comment thing.

is anyone else suspicious that what might seem like a sloppy play is maybe a clever tactic intended to mislead us? or am i being a total Alex Jones here.

why wouldn't a villager think about saying something about skype outside of the game? it's not like they wouldn't be aware that it would look suspicious.

i don't wanna get too up pascal's butt about this because in all fairness this was outside of the game and maybe it's kind of inappropriate to rag on him for that, but still, if it was a ploy, it would be pretty clever... s'all i'm saying.

have other thoughts but will post later.

Pretty slick if aubrey is the last wolf.

[OngBonga]

That's a better reason for wuf being villager than anything he's shouted at me.

Looks like it's gator at this stage. I'll resume my read through shortly.

[Hoopy]

Vote Count 2.03
Hoopy(3): bigred, GatorJH, Jackvance
Bigred(1): Boog690,
Boog(2):, Keith, Jyms
Dropthebanana(1): Rong
Jyms(2): Bikes, Wufwugy
Pascal(3): Daven, Gabe, Hoopy
Keith(1): xtr1000
XTR1000(1): Ongbonga

Not Voting: Pascal, Aubrey, nightgizmo, and dropthebanana

Could be something interesting here. 3 confirmed wolves are holding their votes at this point, maybe unsure on what to do? Aubrey as the 4th?

[Keith]

ok working from hoopy's post . this is the voting and the effect on the lynch candidate through the day from then on . I think that it makes ong a lock villager where i point it out.





Hoopy(3): bigred, GatorJH, Jackvance
Bigred(1): Boog690,
Boog(2):, Keith, Jyms
Dropthebanana(1): Rong
Jyms(2): Bikes, Wufwugy
Pascal(3): Daven, Gabe, Hoopy
Keith(1): xtr1000
XTR1000(1): Ongbonga

------------------------------------
ong rescinds

---------------------------------------
xtr rescind keith lynch pascal

Hoopy(3): bigred, GatorJH, Jackvance
Bigred(1): Boog690,
Boog(2):, Keith, Jyms
Dropthebanana(1): Rong
Jyms(2): Bikes, Wufwugy
Pascal(4): Daven, Gabe, Hoopy,xtr

------------------------------------------
pascal lynchs XTR rescinds and lynchs DTB, pascal still the lynch

Hoopy(3): bigred, GatorJH, Jackvance
Bigred(1): Boog690,
Boog(2):, Keith, Jyms
Dropthebanana(2): Rong,PAscal
Jyms(2): Bikes, Wufwugy
Pascal(4): Daven, Gabe, Hoopy,xtr

really weird vote from pascal ...surely hoopy,boog or jyms would have been better choice for him


----------------------------------------

ong lynchs banana , pascal the lynch

Hoopy(3): bigred, GatorJH, Jackvance
Bigred(1): Boog690,
Boog(2):, Keith, Jyms
Dropthebanana(3): Rong,PAscal,ong
Jyms(2): Bikes, Wufwugy
Pascal(4): Daven, Gabe, Hoopy,xtr

------------------------------------------
aubery lynchs jyms , pascal the lynch . not sure what this means for aubery . if she is a wolf hoopy would be the logical choice with dtb to follow up with the next vote . However jyms has his inactivity problem so a concerted wolf effort

Hoopy(3): bigred, GatorJH, Jackvance
Bigred(1): Boog690,
Boog(2):, Keith, Jyms
Dropthebanana(3): Rong,PAscal,ong
Jyms(3): Bikes, Wufwugy,aubery
Pascal(4): Daven, Gabe, Hoopy,xtr
-----------------------------------------

banana lynchs jyms pascal still the lynch

Hoopy(3): bigred, GatorJH, Jackvance
Bigred(1): Boog690,
Boog(2):, Keith, Jyms
Dropthebanana(3): Rong,PAscal,ong
Jyms(4): Bikes, Wufwugy,aubery,banana
Pascal(4): Daven, Gabe, Hoopy,xtr

------------------------------

xtr rescinds pascal and lynchs banana, jms becomes the lynch

Hoopy(3): bigred, GatorJH, Jackvance
Bigred(1): Boog690,
Boog(2):, Keith, Jyms
Dropthebanana(4): Rong,PAscal,ong,xtr
Jyms(4): Bikes, Wufwugy,aubery,banana
Pascal(3): Daven, Gabe, Hoopy

this vote moved the active lynch to a villager from a wolf but only because aubery and banana had just jumped on the jyms wagon .

-----------------------------

xtr rescinds banana and lynchs pascal leaving jyms as the lynch

Hoopy(3): bigred, GatorJH, Jackvance
Bigred(1): Boog690,
Boog(2):, Keith, Jyms
Dropthebanana(3): Rong,PAscal,ong
Jyms(4): Bikes, Wufwugy,aubery,banana
Pascal(4): Daven, Gabe, Hoopy,xtr

-----------------------------------------------
ong rescinds DTB and switches to pascal pascal becomes the lynch

Hoopy(3): bigred, GatorJH, Jackvance
Bigred(1): Boog690,
Boog(2):, Keith, Jyms
Dropthebanana(2): Rong,PAscal
Jyms(4): Bikes, Wufwugy,aubery,banana
Pascal(5): Daven, Gabe, Hoopy,xtr,ong


does this vote confirm ong a lock villager , switching the lynch from a villager to a wolf. with the new tie rules it means two jyms votes are needed to switch it off a wolf lynch

-------------------------------------------------

keith switches to jyms, pascal still the lynch


Hoopy(3): bigred, GatorJH, Jackvance
Bigred(1): Boog690,
Boog(1):, , Jyms
Dropthebanana(2): Rong,PAscal
Jyms(5): Bikes, Wufwugy,aubery,banana,Keith
Pascal(5): Daven, Gabe, Hoopy,xtr,ong

--------------------------------------------------------
nightgizmo lynchs jyms , jyms becomes the lynch

Hoopy(3): bigred, GatorJH, Jackvance
Bigred(1): Boog690,
Boog(1):, , Jyms
Dropthebanana(2): Rong,PAscal
Jyms(5): Bikes, Wufwugy,aubery,banana,Keith,nightgizmo
Pascal(5): Daven, Gabe, Hoopy,xtr,ong

-------------------------------------------------
gabe lynchs jyms

Hoopy(3): bigred, GatorJH, Jackvance
Bigred(1): Boog690,
Boog(1):, , Jyms
Dropthebanana(2): Rong,PAscal
Jyms(7): Bikes, Wufwugy,aubery,banana,Keith,nightgizmo,gabe
Pascal(5): Daven, Gabe, Hoopy,xtr,ong

--------------------------------------------------
#454

ill just throw this out there..

if jyms is innocent, the people on his late bandwagon (aubrey, dtb, gizmo, keith, me) are hiding a wolf. the only way they are all innocent is if none of our top suspects are wolves, which im hoping isnt the case

we now know keith (seer lookup) gabe (death ) are villagers and DTB and gizmo are wolves . could aubery be the final one?

[wufwugy]

lynch aubrey

i should probably have never even tried to have an opinion on her because my view is going to be just too skewed based on assumptions about the types of things i think she would do with each role

[wufwugy]

it's things like i expected her to have a back and forth with a fellow wolf if she was a wolf, just for the purpose of getting comfortable, but she never did, so i chalked that up to the "villager" column. i have about a dozen of small ones of those, most of which ive forgotten what they are. but then she said "lynch" to mean nom, and i assume she wouldnt say that as a wolf, but the truth is that she actually might. she could have been involved in the discussion of the night kill and still think it's called a lynch without having that clarified. she also could have simply just had a airhead moment when making that post too, since everybody knows all women are indeed airheads

and it's things like she's followed my opinion the entire game. i would expect her to do this as a villager, but i guess she could also do it as a wolf too. also she sorta latched onto boog, and i just assume its because shes in love with larry david. these things all say villager to me, but they could also be uncomfortable wolf.

outside of all that though, every normal reason to lynch somebody exists for her, so we shouldn't kid ourselves (more like i shouldnt kid myself and push it onto others)

[GatorJH]

wuf, you could also make the same arguement that it would be too risky for all three wolves to jump on the same bandwagon

[wufwugy]

that was keith

[aubreymcfate]

What I would do as a wolf has little to do with my own decisions and all to do with what my fellow wolves would tell me to do.

I can say though that as a wolf, I would probably stay moderately active and use my noobness and self-consciousness as an excuse for fluff/inactivity. Unfortunately, this actually IS the case with me as a villager.

Late voting (on my part), like my Pascal vote, is due to me being unsure, too timid to cast a vote early, and then voting near the end just to show I'm active. I did not consider the timing of my voting early on in the game because I didn't realize how integral that would be when it came to wolf hunting later on.

I'm sure that there are nuances in my posts that prove I'm a villager, and you guys would be more capable of discerning them than I would be.

I didn't follow your opinion all game wuf. A good quarter of your posts are drunk ones that cause unnecessary discrepancies later on. I would have to seem like a skitzo if I latched on to you all game.

Boog's av helps. He's endearingly bitchy. I'm down with that.

[aubreymcfate]

Seriously though, none of you have any reason to believe me. Even wuf knows that I am capable of using what he knows about me against him.

I'd love to play this again (cue the collective groans) so I don't mind being lynched. That way, you guys will have a better understanding of me, and I won't be such a wildcard.

If you can afford to lynch a villager, lynch me. If you can't, you're going to be disappointed.

[Keith]

pascal was the wolf at risk , he stayed away from the early jyms wagon , we know that banana and gizmo were integral in the way that the lynch switched from pascal to jyms , Aubery could have been the first one on to get it moving. they had a wolf to protect. They wouldn't expect it to eventually result in a fake outing and a lynched wolf.

why jyms over hoopy is the question. Maybe because there was more suspicion of Jyms than hoopy, so that it was a wagon they could get rolling , and with the way jyms was posting it could have been an attempt to target a special.

lynch Aubery

[wufwugy]

Even wuf knows that I am capable of using what he knows about me against him.

I never actually said you've done that. This means that you read my post and made that leap in your mind, which suggests it was something you discussed in wolfchat

[aubreymcfate]

I didn't mean to imply that you suggested that. I was meant that it's an undeniable possibility, and therefore you knowing me so well doesn't mean your opinion of whether I am wolf or villager is fact.

Seriously, lynch me. I don't care. But don't focus your efforts solely on trying to figure out what I did as a wolf because you are quite literally make shit up out of thin air.

[aubreymcfate]

pascal was the wolf at risk , he stayed away from the early jyms wagon , we know that banana and gizmo were integral in the way that the lynch switched from pascal to jyms , Aubery could have been the first one on to get it moving. they had a wolf to protect. They wouldn't expect it to eventually result in a fake outing and a lynched wolf.

why jyms over hoopy is the question. Maybe because there was more suspicion of Jyms than hoopy, so that it was a wagon they could get rolling , and with the way jyms was posting it could have been an attempt to target a special.

lynch Aubery

The reason I voted Jyms was because I was latching on to the weird dynamic between Boog and Jyms early in the game.

seriously, I know this is not a glamorous explanation but I didn't want to be inactive, I was confused as fuck (again, literally learning how the game plays AS it's unfolding - Wufwugy knows this is not a lie), and I went with something that actually made sense to me. That made sense to me.

As a noob, I'm going to go for things that make OBVIOUS sense. I am not going to just post random shit and pulling nonsensical correlations out of my ass just for the sake of activity. I'm going to make sure I actually understand wtf I am talking about. In this game, that was mostly the more simple, obvious connections, because I was not prepared for a lot of what happened as things picked up. I learned a lot in silence.

You shouldn't be analyzing my actions, ESPECIALLY my early game actions, as those of a player who understands the game's intricacies.

Of course, I could be coached, which is why I urge you guys to find anything in my posts that strikes you as something a wolf wouldn't urge me to say.

Yes, had I gone Daven's route, and posted anything and everything I thought of (this isn't an insult to Daven - he posted well and is a naturally better player than I am), I suppose we wouldn't be having this issue right now. I'm sorry for being a distraction when you're supposed to be finding a wolf. It's literally the most asinine thing right now to be discussing me.

now I'm done with this repetitive defense of myself. Just please, save yourself time and start considering other theories that don't involve me being a wolf.

[JKDS]

Vote Count 6.01

Aubrey(3): Daven, Wufwugy, Keith

Not Voting: Hoopy, Ongbonga, Gator, Aubrey, and Bigred

Deadline is in 1 day, 22 hours, 20min. With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch!

Walking Dead comes back in 5 days guys!

[OngBonga]

It pains me to say it, but I think aubrey is the correct lynch today. I think she's a villager, but I have no idea how she approaches games of deception like this. She's awkward on final day because she might get mislynched as villager, or avoid lynch as wolf. She's an unknown quantity in that respect.

One thing I am sure of... we should use all of our time. So no-one seal this lynch please until we're ready, at the very least we wait for gator.

[OngBonga]

I'm thinking she's a villager less after her last post.

[aubreymcfate]

^^^ the most reasonable commentary on me thus far.

[aubreymcfate]

lol except for your second post. OMG. i can't win. i'm shutting up about myself forever.

[OngBonga]

now I'm done with this repetitive defense of myself. Just please, save yourself time and start considering other theories that don't involve me being a wolf.

It was this aubrey, but your response to my first post seems villager again. This is what I mean about you being awkward on final day, and this is why I think you have to go today.

[wufwugy]

The reason I voted Jyms was because I was latching on to the weird dynamic between Boog and Jyms early in the game.

seriously, I know this is not a glamorous explanation but I didn't want to be inactive, I was confused as fuck (again, literally learning how the game plays AS it's unfolding - Wufwugy knows this is not a lie), and I went with something that actually made sense to me. That made sense to me.

As a noob, I'm going to go for things that make OBVIOUS sense. I am not going to just post random shit and pulling nonsensical correlations out of my ass just for the sake of activity. I'm going to make sure I actually understand wtf I am talking about. In this game, that was mostly the more simple, obvious connections, because I was not prepared for a lot of what happened as things picked up. I learned a lot in silence.

You shouldn't be analyzing my actions, ESPECIALLY my early game actions, as those of a player who understands the game's intricacies.

Of course, I could be coached, which is why I urge you guys to find anything in my posts that strikes you as something a wolf wouldn't urge me to say.

Yes, had I gone Daven's route, and posted anything and everything I thought of (this isn't an insult to Daven - he posted well and is a naturally better player than I am), I suppose we wouldn't be having this issue right now. I'm sorry for being a distraction when you're supposed to be finding a wolf. It's literally the most asinine thing right now to be discussing me.

now I'm done with this repetitive defense of myself. Just please, save yourself time and start considering other theories that don't involve me being a wolf.

part of the issue is that ww is partly a game of weeding out those least likely to win it for the village. thats just how the endgame works. the wovles always kill off the best players and the village tries to kill off the worst. notice how the first two kills by wolves were tlr and gabe. if those two make it to the endgame as villagers, they will pretty much always find the final wolf, but if instead the endgame is one wolf and two newbs, the wolf usually always wins.

[aubreymcfate]

Gator seems the most likely to me if we're going to follow the typical wolf archetype, which is skating by, moderate contribution, etc.

If he isn't, that leaves: wug, ong, and daven.

All three are strong posters, and it would take a very good wolf to pull it off.

Daven is a noob, so I doubt he's a wolf and was able to pull off eager beager villager at the same time.

Ong, from what I remember, was pretty much an equal opportunity accuser. He had this whole shining JV moment (still good wolf hunting, even if you were wrong - idc what anyone says).

Wug... hm... See, one of the biggest reasons I didn't think he was a wolf was because of how personal he was taking shit and how clearly emotional he got. I know how he gets when he can't deal with stupidity, so it seemed genuine to me. But it's possible that even if he is a wolf, he thought the logic/reasoning behind people's accusations of him were still flawed, and was able to pull off genuine anger/defensiveness. This is a stretch, but I think he would be able to pull something like that off.

Also, the game is winding down and he doesn't give a shit about targeting me now, so that's easy. He knows I'm a villager but also knows I could conceivably act this way as a wolf, so it wouldn't be hard to justify his change of opinion.

Now all he has to do is push everyone towards me (easy), Gator (also easy), and then it's pretty much between him and ong.

wait, I don't even know how end game works, I just realized. When do the wolves officially win? If there's just one villager left?

[aubreymcfate]

Okay so lynch me - what's your game plan for what comes next?

I'm not trying to fight my lynch btw, just analyzing the post-fayedeath game.

[aubreymcfate]

uhh *aubreydeath. I HAVE NO REAL NAME

[wufwugy]

ong has been an equal opportunity accuser, and you were right about my didacticness

[aubreymcfate]

and you were right about me, wug. don't worry, your ego will be relieved when i turn up villager, lol.

[aubreymcfate]

oh snap i forgot about hoopy.

hoopy could be wolf in same way gator is but i think gator is wolfier. hasn't hoopy gone after every wolf?

ofc it would be a decent wolf tactic to have that one outlier wolf that attacks all the other ones and acts super super villagery and blatantly puts no effort into defending any wolf, going as far as to fight for their lynch, so that in the event of last wolf standing (and it would probably be that wolf), they would be unscathed.

[OngBonga]

Well, I would hope the gameplay for tomorrow is to lynch gator (after he's given us as much as he's willing to), then if we get to last day, me and hoopy try to figure out if it's wuf or daven. The only problem I see is if there's a breakdown of trust between me and hoopy, that makes for a horrible final day.

Wolf wins when there's only one villager left. So if we get to 4 left, we have to lynch the wolf, because after we lynch a villager and wolf kills villager, there's 1 wolf vs 1 villager, wolf wins. So yeah 4 left is our last chance.

I'm drunk now and just want to listen to some music while smoking, so I'll do some more reading tomorrow now. Let's not lynch aubrey before deadline please, gator said he had some time.

[aubreymcfate]

Okay, well... I hope my lynch is worth it. If I can find a defense for myself that doesn't include "Idk wtf is going on" and "I'm anal," I'll let you guys know, lol.

smoking sounds like an a+ idea.

[wufwugy]

Well, I would hope the gameplay for tomorrow is to lynch gator (after he's given us as much as he's willing to), then if we get to last day, me and hoopy try to figure out if it's wuf or daven. The only problem I see is if there's a breakdown of trust between me and hoopy, that makes for a horrible final day.

Wolf wins when there's only one villager left. So if we get to 4 left, we have to lynch the wolf, because after we lynch a villager and wolf kills villager, there's 1 wolf vs 1 villager, wolf wins. So yeah 4 left is our last chance.

I'm drunk now and just want to listen to some music while smoking, so I'll do some more reading tomorrow now. Let's not lynch aubrey before deadline please, gator said he had some time.

how about this, both you and hoopy give your best reasons for why the other is a villager. that will help a lot because me (and daven) might be entirely convinced that you and hoopy are locks.

i truly believe that as a wolf, you would be playing a game similar to your current one. you've been getting lots of play time and probably lots of advanced strat from your other forum, and the type of thing you would probably learn is that it's great for a wolf to be able to hedge against all the other wolves so much that they look cleared after the other wolves die. there is an important difference between hedging and being the cinch on those fellow wolves dying too

[wufwugy]

why did jv say gator is a villager?

[aubreymcfate]

dunno but jv also thought i was a wolf and he was wrong. (something to keep in mind when i flip villager)

[Hoopy]

how about this, both you and hoopy give your best reasons for why the other is a villager. that will help a lot because me (and daven) might be entirely convinced that you and hoopy are locks.

I'll do this tomorrow, right now sleep is needed.

why did jv say gator is a villager?

He didn't really give reasons, seemed sure though.

[GatorJH]

guys hang on. post on wuf coming in the next few minutes.

[GatorJH]

I took a look at the first two days and on the surface wuf looks very much like a villager. On day 1 he starts out voting for pascal and votes for him later in the day, however there are a few things that DON'T make sense on day 1.

In one post (when the pascal bandwagon was gaining steam) he made a post that a race between pascal and bigred was probably best and then voted for bigred.

At that point a fulksey bandwagon takes off. Gizmo posts that he is tempted to vote for pascal, but jumps on the fulksey bandwagon. This puts fulksey in the lead by, at least 1 voted (2 including ties). Someone else votes for fulksey then Wuf then votes for pascal again.
A vote count is posted that has fulksey at 6 and pascal at 4. Three hours after his vote for pascal wuf jumps on the fulksey bandwagon with dtb closely following to close out the votes.

Day 2 coming next.

[GatorJH]

On day two wuf's first post was that he thought dtb and hoopy were wolves, makes another post that had dtb, pascal, and hoopy were wolves (he included boog in that list, but quickly rescinded that name). He then posts that boog is back on the list and dtb quickly posts after that with a vote for boog.

wuf later makes a long (short for him actually, but whatever) that explains why he thinks hoopy, dtb, boog and jyms were wolves (notice no mention of pascal this time)

dtb makes a post that he could jump on either a pascal or keith bandwagon.

A vote count was posted that had boog in the lead with 2 but with hoopy, dtb and pascal also having two.

wuf posted shortly after this on why he thought bigred was a wolf then voted for him.

Shortly after that wuf posted that the wolves were four of jyms, hoopy, bigred, gabe and boog

gizmo popped in that he thought xtr was a wolf and keith was a villager. Wuf posted that he could agree with that list (but had never mentioned xtr to this point).

Another vote count is posted with pascal in the lead with 3 followed by hoopy (3), boog (2) and jyms(2).



Now here is where the shit gets interesting. Shortly after this count is posted pascal makes a long post about how xtr and dtb have both been absent, votes for xtr but then sees xtr had posted just before him and switches to dtb - HIS FELLOW WOLF.

dtb then jumps in and votes for jyms, followed by gizmo who posts that we can "wait on pascal" and also votes for jyms

jyms bandwagon takes off and a vote count is posted that jyms is in the lead with 7 followed by pascal with 4 and hoopy with 3

shortly after this wuf rescinds jyms and votes for dtb.

dtb's bandwagon takes off in a hurry and he outs as the seer claiming wuf is a villager

Another vote count is posted with dtb at 7, jyms at 5, pascal at 3 and boog at 2

Pascal's bandwagon starts to gain some steam and wuf posted an agreement that pascal was a wolf, but didn't vote for him.

DTB posts pretty quickly after that with a vote for pascal.

Pascal's wagon hits ten and he is lynched, but THEN wuf posts to "not hit ten with pascal guys". He follows that up with a post that he thinks dtb is lying and that pascal could also be a wolf, then rescinds dtb but does not vote for pascal. This is especially strange though. If a villager thought dtb was a wolf then logically pascal is more often a villager after dtb switches to that bandwagon.


My thought on this is that the wolves (at least wuf, pascal and dtb) went into the game with a "go after each other" strategy so they could try to build some street cred. You will see that they vote for each other when there were villagers in the lead, but slightly backed off (or at least tried to) when the wolf bandwagon took off.

I REALLY believe wuf is the last wolf and that we should lynch wuf today.

[wufwugy]

One way of looking at it is who you guys want to play the final day with. It will be four from this list

ong
hoopy
gator
daven
wuf
aubrey

I personally do not want to play on the final day because I do not think I will be of use. I wasn't joking when I said I played most of this game drunk. My brain has been all sorts of whack this game, and I don't feel like I'm on the ball

Aubrey is a bad final day choice because none of feel like we can have any read on her. This is standard for new players, especially ones who are new to the forum.

And the remaining four of Ong Hoopy Daven and now Gator since he claims he can pay attention now are all people who have paid attention or are looking to pay attention

So on a basic game theory level, I propose the final day be of the four strongest players remaining, and that would mean we should lynch me and Aubrey. There are some small caveats though, like if you think because Daven is a newb he's impossible to read, or if you think Gator is too tricky and really isn't paying much attention, but Hoopy and Ong have definitely paid attention the entire game, so they should probably reach the final day

We're in a unique position where we can decide exactly who sees the final day since there are two night kills before then and they have to go to the seer confirmations in Keith and Bigred. So I say we use a lynching strategy that we agree with make the final day the clearest. This may or may not be a good idea

[Keith]

gator, thanks for the precis of my evidence against wuf. pity you didn't read it when i was finding all that stuff originally.

[Keith]

oh and should also mention that boog found some of it in his wuf post.

[Hoopy]

One way of looking at it is who you guys want to play the final day with. It will be four from this list

ong
hoopy
gator
daven
wuf
aubrey


We're in a unique position where we can decide exactly who sees the final day since there are two night kills before then and they have to go to the seer confirmations in Keith and Bigred. So I say we use a lynching strategy that we agree with make the final day the clearest. This may or may not be a good idea

I like the idea that we can decide the final 4. Personally I'm ok with lynching aubrey today and then you tomorrow but Gator getting to the end is always dangerous.

At this point aubrey/Gator are the simplest candidates for wolves, anyone else requires a more complicated sequence of events.

[GatorJH]

oh and should also mention that boog found some of it in his wuf post.

That could be, but tbh when I do my late game reviews I only focus on wolves and the person/people I am reviewing as other villagers are guessing just like I am.

[GatorJH]

At this point aubrey/Gator are the simplest candidates for wolves, anyone else requires a more complicated sequence of events.

At this point in the game the complicated scenarios may be where we find the last wolf.

I am going to look through you, Ong and Daven tonight to see if I notice anything.

[OngBonga]

Yeah I think it's gator, though his lunge at wuf is interesting, because if we lynch wuf today and he's villager, we surely have to swing for gator tomorrow. He would know this, and as villager I'd maybe expect him to take the easy route of aubrey today. But let's see what else he has to say before we consider stringing him up.

[GatorJH]

Yeah I think it's gator, though his lunge at wuf is interesting, because if we lynch wuf today and he's villager, we surely have to swing for gator tomorrow. He would know this, and as villager I'd maybe expect him to take the easy route of aubrey today. But let's see what else he has to say before we consider stringing him up.

Actually, that's not entirely true. As a wolf I would start looking at who I needed to live, not who the easiest to die would be.

[OngBonga]

Well, so long as you don't get me, hoopy or daven killed, I think we have this in the bag.

[OngBonga]

how about this, both you and hoopy give your best reasons for why the other is a villager. that will help a lot because me (and daven) might be entirely convinced that you and hoopy are locks.

Well for now I'll say he played a role in the lynches of pascal and banana, and tried to direct the town towards a gizmo lynch. Also, he's been a target by wolves. I'll provide a stronger argument for hoopy and daven as villager if and when we get to final day.

Wolf is one of gator, wuf, aubrey. Gator is the better player of these three and as such I find it easier to believe that he's the wolf. But so long as it's one of these three, I don't anticipate any problems winning this.

[Hoopy]

For me the thing that makes Ong a villager is him going after pascal on day 1/2 and voting for him early then not switching up when all the DTB stuff happened. His interactions with pascal early are difficult to fake.

He's also Onging about like he usually does as a villager.

[GatorJH]

Well for now I'll say he played a role in the lynches of pascal and banana, and tried to direct the town towards a gizmo lynch. Also, he's been a target by wolves. I'll provide a stronger argument for hoopy and daven as villager if and when we get to final day.

Wolf is one of gator, wuf, aubrey. Gator is the better player of these three and as such I find it easier to believe that he's the wolf. But so long as it's one of these three, I don't anticipate any problems winning this.

I would rather lynch wuf first. That way if he is the final wolf I get to be alive when the village wins. I he is a villager I would die the next day and wouldn't have to try and decide which one o Daven, Ong or Hoopy is a wolf.

[OngBonga]

I can lynch wuf today. If wuf dies villager, I expect gator to do what he can tomorrow to help us before he accepts his lynch.

gator, did you miss aubrey out accidentally, or do you believe that me, hoopy and daven are ahead of her in your wolf list?

[GatorJH]

I can lynch wuf today. If wuf dies villager, I expect gator to do what he can tomorrow to help us before he accepts his lynch.

gator, did you miss aubrey out accidentally, or do you believe that me, hoopy and daven are ahead of her in your wolf list?

I absolutely would do what I could to help narrow the field before saying goodbye and no I didn't just forget Aubrey as I still believe she is a villager. If we lynch wuf today and he turns up villager I will take another look at her as well.

[wufwugy]

Daven got upset at me for using the term "logistics", but it really is the right one. Hoopy and Ong, you guys are not giving examples of why each other is not the final wolf because those are general enough to be what each could do as a wolf. They're basically hedges, but it is when you dig into the specifics and find how their behavior wasn't just a hedge, but was legit something they would not do as a wolf, then you're going someplace

A viable wolf strategy is to target the other wolves all day; HOWEVER, that's not the same thing as going beyond targeting and instead killing them in very unreasonable ways. That's just one example of how to find wolves. It's like how due to the logistics of Jyms almost dying while the only other possible wagons were two wolves, we pretty much knew Jyms was a villager because the only other option was sheer incompetence. But of course, we still weren't able to put it together, even though we should have

So I'm saying to find the logistical reason for why each other is a villager, not general hedges that would be used by a savvy wolf

If you guys wanna lynch me today, please do. I don't want to be here on the final day. It is also possible that my death will allow for some clarity since some are operating on the possible premise that I'm a wolf, and that's distorting their perspective. It's kinda like how everybody always sees the game much more clearly after they die because they're no longer burdened by other pressures

[OngBonga]

Yeah well I'll be the first to admit I'm being lazy, but that's only because right now it's a numbers game. To be honest, I think I'm better at finding villagers than wolves. So come final day I'll look for reasons why people are villagers more than I look for reasons they're wolf. I can already churn off reasons for daven and hoopy, but yeah maybe the wolves targetted daven for distance, maybe hoopy is going for the epic win by killing his entire team, I'll consider this on final day if we get there.

Keith has already presented a strong case for why wuf is a wolf, the contribution to the jyms lynch after pointing out the wolves must be playing really bad for three wolves to be on the block, this all points to a wuf lynch today.

So please wuf, get hunting before we lynch you. That's the only pro-villager thing you can do from here. Right now it seems you're trying to install doubt in the minds of the village regarding myself and hoopy. That seems pro-wolf to me. I'll worry about hoopy if we get to final day, and in turn he'll worry about me. For now, it's a wuf lynch, because there's currently no strong wolf case on anyone else. You should seek to change that if you are a villager.

[Keith]

wuf .....read through post #1751 and examine where ong flipped the lynch from a villager onto a wolf and explain how he's a wolf doing that.