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WW 2013 Edition: The Conglomerate

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  1. #1801
    Quote Originally Posted by Keith View Post
    wuf .....read through post #1751 and examine where ong flipped the lynch from a villager onto a wolf and explain how he's a wolf doing that.
    I've seen worse, back in the game where Hoopy and Supa were wolves. I don't remember the specifics, but I do remember I had completely written off them as wolves because they had turned a non-lynch of a wolf into a lynch of a wolf. It turned out they were sacrificing him purposely or something

    Which is what Ong could be doing here. Isn't this after you pointed out the Skype thing and didn't most everybody already think Pascal was needing to die? There could have been a point that Pascal was considered doomed by the other wolves

    But overall, I don't know. I don't plan on being around to figure it out
  2. #1802
    But overall, I don't know. I don't plan on being around to figure it out
    And this, ladies and gentlemen, is why wuf is a wolf. Wuf tries to figure stuff out when he's a villager.

    lynch wuf
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  3. #1803
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    Yeah well I'll be the first to admit I'm being lazy, but that's only because right now it's a numbers game. To be honest, I think I'm better at finding villagers than wolves. So come final day I'll look for reasons why people are villagers more than I look for reasons they're wolf. I can already churn off reasons for daven and hoopy, but yeah maybe the wolves targetted daven for distance, maybe hoopy is going for the epic win by killing his entire team, I'll consider this on final day if we get there.

    Keith has already presented a strong case for why wuf is a wolf, the contribution to the jyms lynch after pointing out the wolves must be playing really bad for three wolves to be on the block, this all points to a wuf lynch today.

    So please wuf, get hunting before we lynch you. That's the only pro-villager thing you can do from here. Right now it seems you're trying to install doubt in the minds of the village regarding myself and hoopy. That seems pro-wolf to me. I'll worry about hoopy if we get to final day, and in turn he'll worry about me. For now, it's a wuf lynch, because there's currently no strong wolf case on anyone else. You should seek to change that if you are a villager.
    Stop trying to explain why you think I'm the wolf. It shows that you are either not paying attention or the wolf yourself. I don't even want to go over this shit anymore, but apparently people accusing me of being a wolf on false fabrications irritates the fuck out of me. I would gladly lay down to an argument for me being a wolf that gets its facts straight, but nothing pisses me off as much as people just making shit up then arguing for it

    Remember this?

    Quote Originally Posted by Hoopy View Post
    If we look at vote count 3.04 or BooG's post #1636 Nightgizmo stayed on wuf when it was a race between him and DTB.

    Since DTB was dead sooner rather than later with his fake seer claim it would make very little sense for gizmo to go after wuf when the voting was so tight if he was a wolf. Consider the fact that 1-2 hours before the end it looked like wuf was getting lynched. Bad for the wolf team.
    And you said "that's the best argument for him being a villager so far"? You're right, it is the best. This fully demonstrates that I can't be a wolf. It means that Gizmo was actually in the process of killing me at the worst time in the stupidest way. But no, you can't pay attention to facts, you have to stick with making shit up.

    You saw my precise and detailed explanation about the JV/Jyms/Bigred seer thing, yet you don't care to use your brain on it. You somehow imagine that I planned all that days ahead of time down to the strictest of detail. It doesn't matter to you that no wolf ever plans for the future like that or gathers intricate details like that to point out later.

    You keep saying I'm wrong for having bolded Jyms when I knew he was a villager, but it doesn't occur to you that there were two fucking hours left and I was the one who was going to be lynched and I didn't bother doing anything until JV said he wasn't going to shoot me, then I merely lynched Jyms to keep myself alive. JV saw what was really going on, and I'm only alive now because he said he realized I'm not a wolf

    In your silly world, I'm a magical wolf who is on the brink of dying every single day in every single way


    I want to be lynched today, but I'm sick of people still trying to justify why they think I'm a wolf when their thoughts are ignoring what really happened
  4. #1804
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    And this, ladies and gentlemen, is why wuf is a wolf. Wuf tries to figure stuff out when he's a villager.

    lynch wuf
    You have forgotten that I am the person most responsible for the direction of this village. Don't trick yourself with this stupid shit that I haven't and am not trying to figure shit out
  5. #1805
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    i'm hesitant to base a vote for Wufwugy on gator's post above - I think his post could be written by either a wolfgator or a villager-gator.
    I'm off to start reading the thread for a while. I still think that Aubrey is a good lynch today so i won't rescind that for now.
  6. #1806
    I actually shouldn't have posted those last two. I just get so fucking didactic when people don't come at me correct

    The only way it would be better for this village for me to make it to the final day is if they believe I'm not a wolf. Because if they don't and I'm alive on the final day, it will be fucking chaos. And I'm tired of my presence dominating all discussion; it lets the real wolf either hide in those attacking me or hide beneath it all

    So just make up your mind about me once and for all and get on with it
  7. #1807
    Wuf, you're more focussed on why I'm wrong about you than you are in trying to find the last wolf. Run along now, find the last wolf before you die. I don't even care if I'm wrong about you, so long as I'm not wrong about daven and hoopy. Who's the wolf wuf? "Not me" is not an acceptable answer.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  8. #1808
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    right now i think likelihood of being wolf is Gator=Aubrey > Wufwugy > Hoopy > Ongbonga. I do want to look more closely at Hoopy though, and reading right through looking at everyone should make things clearer. I also want to look more closely at Wufwugy, right up until Jyms was lynched I was convinced he was villager. His posts since then are weird but I can't tell whether that is more likely wolf-spray or pissed-off-villager spray. Meh, basically I need to look at everyone except Keith and Bigred.
  9. #1809
    Quote Originally Posted by daven View Post
    i'm hesitant to base a vote for Wufwugy on gator's post above - I think his post could be written by either a wolfgator or a villager-gator.
    I'm off to start reading the thread for a while. I still think that Aubrey is a good lynch today so i won't rescind that for now.
    We're not lynching wuf today, that would be a frustration lynch.

    Today we lynch aubrey, then Gator the next day.

    If that doesn't win us the game then the last day is going to be fun.

    I'm going to vote for aubrey, not yet since we still have some discussion time left.
  10. #1810
    I don't have too much to add when it comes to wolf hunting because the two main ones to talk about are Aubrey and Gator, and my reads on them can be off (or precisely on) for weird reasons. Let me explain...

    Aubrey would act exactly like this as a villager and as a wolf. She has merged her range, even if she doesn't realize it. As a villager, she would try to deflect from herself and clam up, but as a wolf, she would likely have sought the opinions of the other wolves and they would have told her something like "just try to deflect and slide under the radar when possible."

    As for Gator, in my moddings, I discovered that he is confusing as a motherfucker. Sometimes he has stellar thoughts, sometimes really odd and wrong ones, and other times, he's too preoccupied to give a fully fleshed out thought, so it just ends up really weird. But on the flip side, as a wolf he would have no problem with posting minimally in early and mid game then trying to lay specific suspicions in the endgame, which sync with his play this game

    As for Hoopy Ong and Daven, I have no clue and have been hoping to die before I have I to put the pedal to the metal and really try to figure you guys out. If one of you is the wolf, you have played extremely well because you've all done loads of stuff that wolves only rarely do yet villagers often do. But then there is also the possibility that Hoopy or Ong have graduated to a highly strategy level or that Daven is just a sick fucker
  11. #1811
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    with the vote count like this:

    Quote Originally Posted by JKDS View Post
    Vote Count 2.03
    Hoopy(3): bigred, GatorJH, Jackvance
    Bigred(1): Boog690,
    Boog(2):, Keith, Jyms
    Dropthebanana(1): Rong
    Jyms(2): Bikes, Wufwugy
    Pascal(3): Daven, Gabe, Hoopy

    Keith(1): xtr1000
    XTR1000(1): Ongbonga

    Not Voting: Pascal, Aubrey, nightgizmo, and dropthebanana

    Deadline is in 8hrs and 46 minutes. With 18 alive it takes 10 to lynch!

    If you've seen me post VC, It just means im place holding for a vote count :3
    Pascal makes this post:
    Quote Originally Posted by Pascal View Post
    Lol timing again. XTR's actually contributed to the village so rescind XTR

    lynch DTB
    posts 405 and 413.
    I'm not sure why he moved to DTB rather than Hoopy (assuming Hoopy is villager), it supports Gator's 'wolves-target-each-other' theory though.
    Other obvious ideas are that he didn't move to Jyms because he didn't want he and wuf to be two wolves getting that wagon going together, or that he didn't move to Hoopy because Hoopy is wolf-at-risk, I can't really see a reason that explains why he didn't move to Boog over DTB, etc. Confusing vote. Can other people take a look at this and see if you can make sense of it?
  12. #1812
    rescind

    I dunno why you get worked up when I point the finger at you wuf, you know I just like to shout shit to get a reaction. Anyway, you're back behind gator and aubrey in my list. You're right, the gizmo thing does make you likely villager, but everyone has a case for being a villager, so someone somewhere is playing a good wolf game.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  13. #1813
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    rescind

    I dunno why you get worked up when I point the finger at you wuf, you know I just like to shout shit to get a reaction. Anyway, you're back behind gator and aubrey in my list. You're right, the gizmo thing does make you likely villager, but everyone has a case for being a villager, so someone somewhere is playing a good wolf game.
    I don't either. It's a really silly pet peeve of mine where I get super upset when people think I'm lying or when they don't view things the way I do. Of course, this is a game where you can't be like that, and I'm able to to some degree, but I think the fact that I haven't pulled wolf in over a year has made me fully identify as a perpetual villager

    Regardless, I do need to tone it down
  14. #1814
    Daven, that's an interesting find. One way or the other, pascal had a better wagon than banana to jump onto. Why did he go for banana?
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  15. #1815
    It is possible that we're making the same sort of fundamental mistake that villages always seem to: forgeting that high content players are rarely wolves and the wolves virtually always hide among the low content players. This could mean that the wolves are not inconspicuous at all because they're sitting in an activity and content level far below the rest.

    Here's the post count

    wuf 319
    ong 299
    daven 133
    hoopy 79
    gator 77
    aubrey 71

    So that means half are high activity and half are low activity. Hoopy has been more dense and more constructive content than Gator. He's a tough one to figure out though because he's generally very consistent in how he posts

    But that leads me to the question: JV wanted Hoopy to die before anybody else on the previous day. Why? What did he see that we're currently ignoring?
  16. #1816
    Look at the four not voting... that would be pretty outrageous if aubrey was the 4th.

    I guess pascal thought he was going to die, and wanted to put some distance between himself and a wolf. Why he didn't vote for hoopy though is interesting, I'm curious to see what pascal was saying about hoopy around this time.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  17. #1817
    Ok so daven, that pascal thing, he makes his banana vote like immediately after saying "I'm happy to lynch banana or xtr" and voting xtr... part of the reason for xtr was that xtr was inactive, but posted a big post just as pascal was posting... so that switch to banana was kinda forced.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  18. #1818
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    Daven, that's an interesting find. One way or the other, pascal had a better wagon than banana to jump onto. Why did he go for banana?

    Ummmmm, Pascal didn't find that. I did.
    Poker is easy, it's winning at poker that's hard.
  19. #1819
    Meant Daven there
    Poker is easy, it's winning at poker that's hard.
  20. #1820
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    Ok so daven, that pascal thing, he makes his banana vote like immediately after saying "I'm happy to lynch banana or xtr" and voting xtr... part of the reason for xtr was that xtr was inactive, but posted a big post just as pascal was posting... so that switch to banana was kinda forced.
    Not really. He could have posted the "bad timing" part, buleft he vote.
    Poker is easy, it's winning at poker that's hard.
  21. #1821
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    I've seen worse, back in the game where Hoopy and Supa were wolves. I don't remember the specifics, but I do remember I had completely written off them as wolves because they had turned a non-lynch of a wolf into a lynch of a wolf. It turned out they were sacrificing him purposely or something
    If Hoopy is used to this tactic, and if he is a wolf, that would explain why he's gone after every wolf in the game thus far. Earlier in the game Ong said Hoopy would be a ridiculously good wolf if he was in fact a wolf... Hm...
    Free your mind and your ass will follow.
  22. #1822
    Apologies gator if I skimmed one of your posts. I might have just forgot.

    Earlier in the game Ong said Hoopy would be a ridiculously good wolf if he was in fact a wolf.
    At the time, I was convinced jack was a wolf, and hoopy was pushing hard for jack's lynch with me. With jack being vig, my hoopy read isn't quite as strong. But he gets huge village points for trying to move the wagon to gizmo instead of jyms. Make no mistake, the loss of gizmo was huge, he's a very good wolf and I believe anyone who showed serious will to lynch him is a villager.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  23. #1823
    Gizmo also said this in post 1309

    After skimming his posts, I think Hoopy is a villager. Early on day 2, he was pushing for a DTB vs. JV wagon, his votes were mainly on pascal and DTB during that day, and pushed for a DTB lynch at the end of Day 3. I just can't see a wolf consistently voting against his fellow wolves.
    Is he trying to help the village, or are he and Hoopy aware of how to hedge and how effective it is if you do it right?
  24. #1824
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    But he gets huge village points for trying to move the wagon to gizmo instead of jyms.
    Dude, this is why I keep saying you have to go over the logistics, because this didn't actually happen. It's too easy to misremember things. I only just started looking back at Hoopy, but so far I have found that he NEVER pushed for Gizmo instead of Jyms
  25. #1825
    Holy crap you guys need to go back over Hoopy's posts. He is so wolfy, I wish somebody had helped me out in early game when I first wanted him dead

    Seriously, go over his shit. His rationale for bolding Gizmo is the weakest thing ever. Now if only we can figure out why JV said he was the best choice for wolf (along with Boog was)
  26. #1826
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    Quote Originally Posted by GatorJH View Post
    Ummmmm, Pascal didn't find that. I did.
    it jumped out at me too, i decided to start my readthrough by looking at Pascal's votes
    you obv also found it before me cos of what i copied below, but i think there are more possible explanations for his vote than simply the go after fellow wolves one that you gave:
    Quote Originally Posted by GatorJH View Post
    Another vote count is posted with pascal in the lead with 3 followed by hoopy (3), boog (2) and jyms(2).


    Now here is where the shit gets interesting. Shortly after this count is posted pascal makes a long post about how xtr and dtb have both been absent, votes for xtr but then sees xtr had posted just before him and switches to dtb - HIS FELLOW WOLF.

    dtb then jumps in and votes for jyms, followed by gizmo who posts that we can "wait on pascal" and also votes for jyms

    jyms bandwagon takes off and a vote count is posted that jyms is in the lead with 7 followed by pascal with 4 and hoopy with 3

    shortly after this wuf rescinds jyms and votes for dtb.

    dtb's bandwagon takes off in a hurry and he outs as the seer claiming wuf is a villager

    Another vote count is posted with dtb at 7, jyms at 5, pascal at 3 and boog at 2

    Pascal's bandwagon starts to gain some steam and wuf posted an agreement that pascal was a wolf, but didn't vote for him.

    DTB posts pretty quickly after that with a vote for pascal.

    Pascal's wagon hits ten and he is lynched, but THEN wuf posts to "not hit ten with pascal guys". He follows that up with a post that he thinks dtb is lying and that pascal could also be a wolf, then rescinds dtb but does not vote for pascal. This is especially strange though. If a villager thought dtb was a wolf then logically pascal is more often a villager after dtb switches to that bandwagon.


    My thought on this is that the wolves (at least wuf, pascal and dtb) went into the game with a "go after each other" strategy so they could try to build some street cred. You will see that they vote for each other when there were villagers in the lead, but slightly backed off (or at least tried to) when the wolf bandwagon took off.

    I REALLY believe wuf is the last wolf and that we should lynch wuf today.
  27. #1827
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    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    Holy crap you guys need to go back over Hoopy's posts. He is so wolfy, I wish somebody had helped me out in early game when I first wanted him dead

    Seriously, go over his shit. His rationale for bolding Gizmo is the weakest thing ever. Now if only we can figure out why JV said he was the best choice for wolf (along with Boog was)
    i've been reading through pretty thoroughly. Hoopy does a lot of things that look like a wolf, and a lot of things that look lock-villager. I've just got up to that weird Pascal vote from the very beginning. I've been copy-pasting relevant thoughts/posts/post references to a notepad file. Posting it shortly.
  28. #1828
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    actually, it's more that Gabe and TLR both label Hoopy as wolf and then get night killed that seems wolf. His posts mostly seem pretty villager.
  29. #1829
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    gator (post 63), pascal, and DTB all going for me on day 1 is interesting. Gator got off me and explained why in post 103 though

    ong getting on pascal early and targeting hard (post 71) looks like a villager, but he probably bolded everone day 1 so i'm taking it with a grain of salt.

    post 93 when it looked like a Pascal wagon was starting to build.
    Quote Originally Posted by GatorJH View Post
    I don't say this often, but I like Boog's thought process here.

    rescind pascal, lynch Jyms

    posts 80. 147, 202 are all we heard from TLR

    Quote Originally Posted by TLR View Post
    Sorry, but I did not get the memo about not lynching newbes who bother to post

    I understand the logic of recruiting new people into the game as a meta game strategy, but in terms of game play lynching noobs is the sensible thing to do, with no info chances are we will hit a villager, and noobs are the least useful villagers

    That being said I think that Pascal is a bit too defensive, so
    lynch Pascal
    Quote Originally Posted by TLR View Post
    Out of the 3 inactives that were mentioned, 2 popped up and started playing
    I assume Fulsky will show up, he is usually involved

    I am sticking with Pascal vote, he came off a bit too defensively when his name was brought up, and disappeared when other targets emerged, I think he is our best bet for now
    Quote Originally Posted by TLR View Post
    This post caught my eye, it is not typical of Hoopy to go after strong players early, I find it very suspecious

    I am sticking with pascal but hoopy can also be a decent choice
    from rong's post 255 - he's right, at this point in a readthrough I was feeling like Ongbonga = villager, but there is nothing specific in his posts that makes this lock.
    Quote Originally Posted by rong View Post
    3.Ong is not cleared!!!! Let me repeat that in capitals in case you miss it. ONGBONGA IS NOT CLEARED!!!!! You may feel you have some evidence toward his role, but fuck clearing him on the strength of that and I notice Ong was very quick to latch on to Wuf's statement. Don't like it at all.
    Ong got pretty annoyed that Jackvance was accusing DTB of being a wolf (post 268 and others), but note that he also thought that 'Pascal screams wolf' (post 272) so those lines of reasoning cancel each other out somewhat. Interesting how he's then continuing to push hard at Pascal (post 275) but clears him as 'not that stupid' re skype (post 280)

    Wuf seems to have accused about everyone. Posts like this (below, 287) seemed helpful at the time, but now just seem a waste of space:

    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    my wolf list is updated to

    hoopy dtb boog jyms

    hoopy - in his scant posts, he has accused people of being wolves without putting much into it. tlr noticed a peculiarity here, and i think he's right. nobody else seems to pick up on it, and boog even comes out not liking it and instead backing hoopy's idea (even though the critique of jv isn't that good). villager hoopy tends to post more observations and fewer accusations in early games

    dtb - i dont like his posting style. i get a real strong wolf vibe from his frequency and content. also he's lynching boog to distance himself

    boog - instead of being irked about the angel dying, he told me to shut up. instead of being irked that tlr was nom'd, he told me to shut up. he defended jyms quite a lot and has defended hoopy where he can. he is more active this game, and that is something i would expect of him if he landed wolf again because we said so many times about the last game that his main problem as a wolf is low post count. he would want to make this improvement. he has some consistencies like naming both fulksy and bigred, and going after bigred today, but to me those are in a way contrived consistencies. this shows his opinion didnt change at all over the night phase, and he'd rather get rid of bigred than do some wolf hunting

    jyms - i believe he was without wifi when he said, but i think he's still a wolf. his posting style is different from the villager ways and similar to the wolf ways in a couple places, but more importantly, i think boog is a wolf, and if so, jyms is too. jyms recently said he agrees with me without really explaining why, and this is very weird since im all over the place (as usual). so what exactly is he doing here? it looks like he's not agreeing with me, he's just trying to buddy up.
    post 313
    Quote Originally Posted by gabe View Post
    i dont think we should lynch dtb or boog. i see nothing that seems wolfy about them. ive read the arguments but dont buy any of it. boog was a wolf last game and part of a dominating wolf team, why would he switch up his playstyle so much if he was a wolf again. dtb seems pretty neutral, doing the same thing he was doing last game until a bandwagon started on him

    my suspicious list starts with ongbonga, hoopy and pascal. there are a few others that need vetting (jackvance, xtr, gator, rong, bikes?).

    a few small comments by both ongbonga and hoopy have set off alarm bells. pascal just cant seem not suspicious. ill lynch any of these 3

    lynch hoopy

    hoopy posts 341 and 342 puts me, rong, and keith as villagers and JV and DTB as wolf suspects annd then in post 350 puts Pascal as a ? and (I think) is one of the first to state that Gizmo is looking a bit dodgy.

    Probably my favourite post from Wuf (380):
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    so apparently the wolves are four of these five: jyms hoopy gabe boog bigred. ship it bank it chug it jam it. dont tell me i didnt solve the game for youse
  30. #1830
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    re Gabe's post identifying Hoopy, it's worth noting that he then moved his vote to Ongbonga, and then to Pascal. His Hoopy vote could have simply been to see what, if any, responses he got
  31. #1831
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    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    Holy crap you guys need to go back over Hoopy's posts. He is so wolfy, I wish somebody had helped me out in early game when I first wanted him dead

    Seriously, go over his shit. His rationale for bolding Gizmo is the weakest thing ever. Now if only we can figure out why JV said he was the best choice for wolf (along with Boog was)
    can you point us at specific wolfy posts, at the moment it seems likely that we're reading the same posts and drawing different conclusions from them. Or somehow blurring through relevant posts simply because it's hard to read this many posts without subconsciously skimming at least a little
  32. #1832
    Quote Originally Posted by daven View Post
    i've been reading through pretty thoroughly. Hoopy does a lot of things that look like a wolf, and a lot of things that look lock-villager. I've just got up to that weird Pascal vote from the very beginning. I've been copy-pasting relevant thoughts/posts/post references to a notepad file. Posting it shortly.
    He has done a whole ton of "this poster is my fellow wolf so I'll just point out that I'm suspicious of him and bold him but won't really go too far with it"

    That's the kind of level FTR players are usually on. Even really good wolves do that a lot
  33. #1833
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    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    He has done a whole ton of "this poster is my fellow wolf so I'll just point out that I'm suspicious of him and bold him but won't really go too far with it"

    That's the kind of level FTR players are usually on. Even really good wolves do that a lot
    cheers, i'll keep that in mind when i continue my readthrough.
  34. #1834
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    Dude, this is why I keep saying you have to go over the logistics, because this didn't actually happen. It's too easy to misremember things. I only just started looking back at Hoopy, but so far I have found that he NEVER pushed for Gizmo instead of Jyms
    You're right. I hate this game now.

    Quote Originally Posted by Hoopy View Post
    How about a gizmo or jyms wagon?
    This is what I was referring to. When he said this, he was on jyms, and then voted aubrey after.

    With hoopy being wrong about jack, and him not swinging for gizmo as strongly as I thought, he's not the lock I thought he was.

    Now I'm paranoid though. Under no circumstance do I wish to be left with hoopy and wuf on final day, it's too much of a headfuck to decide if wuf is trying to fuck with my villager read on hoopy, or if I am wrong about hoopy being a villager.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  35. #1835
    [QUOTE=OngBonga;2127665]I'm gonna suggest an xtr lynch. Pascal is active, bigred and fulsky will probably be active once they realise we've started, xtr is someone who likes to float by and he's given me reason to think he could be a wolf. If he turns out to be, then pascal is probably a wolf too.

    Based on activity, pascal is more of a loss to the village than xtr, and I want to actually string someone up who has a decent chance of being wolf. bigred and fulsky have not even posted, so it's unlikely they know the game has started, let alone their roles. So these pair are random chance targets, they're only slightly more likely to be wolf than special.

    lynch XTR1000

    This post is interesting as xtr is generally more active than bigred yet he goes after bigred.
    Poker is easy, it's winning at poker that's hard.
  36. #1836
    just finished day 1 and Ong looks very much like a villager. He went after pascal a bit too hard to be playing the "let's go after each other" strategy successfully. Aubrey, on the other hand looked wolfish when she threw out a vote for JV late in the pascal bandwagon. This is the sort of knee jerk reaction I could see out of a newbie wolf.

    Didn't look at Daven and Hoopy so no comments on them.

    Oh, and rescind wuf as I would rather have him here tomorrow than aubrey.
    Poker is easy, it's winning at poker that's hard.
  37. #1837
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    I'm gonna suggest an xtr lynch. Pascal is active, bigred and fulsky will probably be active once they realise we've started, xtr is someone who likes to float by and he's given me reason to think he could be a wolf. If he turns out to be, then pascal is probably a wolf too.

    Based on activity, pascal is more of a loss to the village than xtr, and I want to actually string someone up who has a decent chance of being wolf. bigred and fulsky have not even posted, so it's unlikely they know the game has started, let alone their roles. So these pair are random chance targets, they're only slightly more likely to be wolf than special.

    lynch XTR1000
    post above was supposed to look like this.
    Poker is easy, it's winning at poker that's hard.
  38. #1838
    Quote Originally Posted by daven View Post
    can you point us at specific wolfy posts, at the moment it seems likely that we're reading the same posts and drawing different conclusions from them. Or somehow blurring through relevant posts simply because it's hard to read this many posts without subconsciously skimming at least a little
    Sure. I'm going to have to give brushstrokes though since it would be waaaaaay too much and too hard to link his posts. Anyways, here's the Hoopy overview from beginning of thread to end

    - He points his fingers at a few players without much rationale. I stated at the time that this is not Hoopy's style

    - He says he's not suspicious of Pascal, but then votes to lynch him early on the wagon

    - He bolds DTB after me and JV and Gabe and everybody started switching from Jyms to DTB, then 10 minutes later, DTB outs as the Angel. Curiously, 10 minutes is probably about as long as it would have taken for DTB to type up his fake-outing post after he and Hoopy decided to do it then.

    - After Pascal dies and shows wolf, Hoopy makes some big ass post about who did what, but it serves no wolf hunting purpose at all. This is pretty standard for wolves since they don't know how to hunt but try to appear to.

    - A large portion of Hoopy's posts are basically: "I would like to hear what so n so has to say". Villagers do this occasionally, but wolves do it more often because they don't have much else to say.

    - Hoopy is never suspicious of me at all. I don't know what this means, but it could mean that the wolves know that getting me on their side is super smart. It is also strange that he was never suspicious of me since a lot of others were.

    - Now this is significant

    Quote Originally Posted by Hoopy View Post
    rescind jackvance

    Sorry if you actually are the vig jack, I voted last night without putting much thought into it.
    Previously, Hoopy had said several times that JV was his main wolf suspect. He bolded JV after I rallied to get JV high in the votes. He could explain why he bolded JV then because he says he was suspicious all along, but him saying "I voted last night without putting much thought into it" contradicts Hoopy's previous posts that he was suspicious of JV. JV was his very first bold of the entire game, too

    - He then types up a list of everything Gizmo said, and just adds the "analysis"

    Conclusion : Tough to say, probably leans villager based on analysis posts.
    Which is just more worthless wolf-trying-to-be-helpful. Later in this post we'll find Hoopy thinks Gizmo is a good bold but also doesn't. It's strange.

    - The DTB day stuff was strange for Hoopy because he did say that he doesn't think we should lynch anybody involved in the outings and the lookup claims, then he bolds bigred due to inactivity, then says a race should be between bikes and bigred, then after I am leading in votes and start rallying to kill DTB, he comes to my defense and bolds DTB saying that we all know DTB is wolf so we should get it over with, but then he asks those on bigred to consolidate onto DTB. This suggests two things: 1) the wolves were prepared to throw DTB under when the time came and/or 2) he's trying to get on my good side. It could also mean he's a villager and is just really convinced by my arguments too....

    - Now onto the day Jyms is lynched: the only thing Hoopy says about Gizmo is that he just feels like a wolf. He bolds him early, and doesn't push for him or explain any rationale at all.

    - He then puts Bikes in his villager list, then JV asks him why, and he says

    Quote Originally Posted by Hoopy View Post
    Mainly because he's not lurking, if I remember rightly he never posts much but some of reasoning is pretty good this game.
    But this somewhat contradicts his earlier thoughts on Bikes being a problem due to low post activity, like when he wanted to do Bigred vs Bikes due to neither being that active.

    - After Bikes is out as seer, all Hoopy has is "good lookups, wolf pool is smaller". This is not normal Hoopy behavior. As a villager, he does indeed provide analyses into other players, but so far in this game he has done nothing other than just comment on what has happened and stuff

    - LOL Hoopy fucking rescinded Gizmo after Ong wants to make it Gizmo vs Aubrey even though he had no change in opinion whatsoever. Then lynches Jyms effectively turning Gizmo from tied with a few others at 2 to Jyms being in the lead

    - Yet again, Hoopy comes to my rescue when it's Wuf vs Jyms with not much time left.

    - LOL he suggests a Gizmo vs Jyms wagon, but that's weird because he rescinded Gizmo. Total wolf behavior. They love to talk a lot about how fellow wolves could be wolves, but when push comes to shove, they don't pull the trigger

    - Then he says this after Gizmo is shot

    As for me, it would be pretty sick for me to be a wolf considering I've gone after/voted for every member of the wolf team this game.
    LOL nope! He didn't really do anything, and this is what he would like to say after his wolves die so that's why he said Gizmo was suspicious several times and bolded but then rescinded him once when the wagon was still less than 2. He never went after anybody. He's gone after nobody so far. He's only posted commentary and done no wolf hunting whatsoever. He earlier posted unimportant opinions on what Gizmo had said, but provides no conclusion other than "um dunno". This isn't "going after", but he says it is because he's a wolf and that's what wolves do.

    - Yet again, Hoopy buddies up to me and goes for the Boog wagon. Maybe he's not buddying so much as he's just following whatever happens, and whatever happens has just coincidentally been me directing the course

    - Yet again, Hoopy buddies up to me by making a great reason for why I can't be a wolf due to Gizmo cinching my impending doom

    - He picks up his posting just a little after Boog dies. Standard action for low activity wolves in endgame

    - Then after I come up with the "choose our final 4", he says he's okay with me dying before then and Gator is tough in the final. But he's been siding with me all game and has never said anything about me being a wolf. In fact, he previously made the best case for me being a villager, yet now he is okay with me dying? And he for the millionth time puts suspicions on Gator, but is wishy washy about it

    - Then later he seems happy with me being in the final 4. Funny how this is after I said if that happens "it would be chaos".

    - Finally, JV said several times that Hoopy needs to be at the top of the lynch order, and we all know he's better at finding wolves than anybody else left playing





    So basically, we have skipped Hoopy waaaaaaaaaay too much. He hasn't actually done ANYTHING this game, he's done tons of really wolfish things, he's done no wolfhunting, just relatively meaningless commentary instead, and the JVP said he needs to die. I had been taking Ong's word for Hoopy having been so integral on wolves being caught that I didn't ever go back over his posts, but now that I have, I see that he wasn't integral in the slightest, Ong is just misremembering

    I am now fully convinced and will side with the JVP

    lynch Hoopy
  39. #1839
    I am halfway through day 2 reviewing ong and if he is a wolf he has taken that role to a whole new level. He is, by far, a villager in my book. Aubrey still looks suspicious though and my single thought for why she could be a villager may be wrong.
    Poker is easy, it's winning at poker that's hard.
  40. #1840
    lemme look at hoopy and see If I see the same stuff wuf sees above.
    Poker is easy, it's winning at poker that's hard.
  41. #1841
    Quote Originally Posted by JKDS View Post
    Vote Count 1.05
    Pascal (4): TLR, Daven, Ongbonga, Wufwugy
    Daven(3): DroptheBanana, Jackvance, Bigred
    Fulksey (6): Boog690, Gabe, Pascal, Nightgizmo, Xtr1000, aubrey
    JackVance (1): Hoopy
    Rong (1): GatorJH
    Boog (1): Keith

    Not Voting, , Fulsky, Rong, Bikes, and Jyms

    Deadline is 23hrs, 24min from this post. 11 votes to lynch

    Rule of Votes: Its not a vote if I don't see it. Make them conspicuous and clear to avoid mishaps.

    Deadline lynches: Ties can get pretty complicated actually. Instead of cluttering the thread with it, just know that the first wagon to get the most support is very likely to be lynched.

    I applied for a Summer externship with the Public Defender's Office in Las Vegas. This is totally not related to it being in Vegas >.>
    This vote says a lot. If you believe the wolves were taking a "let's attack each other some" line then either wuf or ong could be wolves. On the other hand if, at this point they were taking more of a standard line, hoopy and aubrey look wolfish but hoopy more as I doubt three wolves would be on the same lynch.
    Poker is easy, it's winning at poker that's hard.
  42. #1842
    not much happens after that except that dtb switched to fulksy making three known wolves on that bandwagon. Would he have done this if three others were already on that wagon?
    Poker is easy, it's winning at poker that's hard.
  43. #1843
    Quote Originally Posted by JKDS View Post
    Vote Count 2.02
    Hoopy(2): Wufwugy, bigred
    Bigred(1): Boog690
    Boog(2):, Keith, Jyms
    Dropthebanana(2): Rong, ongbonga
    Jyms(1): Bikes
    Pascal(2): Daven, Gabe
    Keith(1): xtr1000

    Not Voting.: Hoopy, Pascal, Jackvance, gator, Aubrey, nightgizmo, dropthebanana

    Dead line is in 28 hours, 34 minutes. 10 votes needed to lynch
    This is interesting because if either hoopy or aubrey are the final wolf then no wolf has voted at this point.
    Poker is easy, it's winning at poker that's hard.
  44. #1844
    Quote Originally Posted by GatorJH View Post
    Aubrey, on the other hand looked wolfish when she threw out a vote for JV late in the pascal bandwagon. This is the sort of knee jerk reaction I could see out of a newbie wolf.
    can you point out where i did that?
    Free your mind and your ass will follow.
  45. #1845
    Quote Originally Posted by Hoopy View Post
    Of those 3 people JV is the only one I considered to be remotely wolfy.

    I feel like the spread of votes right now means we're close to a wolf.

    lynch Pascal
    not sure what to make of this as it puts pascal in the lead with 3 votes. Pascal took quite a bit of heat on day one so could this be the start of the gain some villager cred strategy?
    Poker is easy, it's winning at poker that's hard.
  46. #1846
    Quote Originally Posted by aubreymcfate View Post
    can you point out where i did that?
    well shit, now I can't find it. sorry about that. Getting tired.
    Poker is easy, it's winning at poker that's hard.
  47. #1847
    Quote Originally Posted by GatorJH View Post
    not sure what to make of this as it puts pascal in the lead with 3 votes. Pascal took quite a bit of heat on day one so could this be the start of the gain some villager cred strategy?
    Yes. 3 votes is nothing on the first couple days. Wolves normally bounce around each others' wagons as long as theyre somewhere below 5 or 6
  48. #1848
    Quote Originally Posted by JKDS View Post
    Vote Count 2.03
    Hoopy(3): bigred, GatorJH, Jackvance
    Bigred(1): Boog690,
    Boog(2):, Keith, Jyms
    Dropthebanana(1): Rong
    Jyms(2): Bikes, Wufwugy
    Pascal(3): Daven, Gabe, Hoopy

    Keith(1): xtr1000
    XTR1000(1): Ongbonga

    Not Voting: Pascal, Aubrey, nightgizmo, and dropthebanana



    Deadline is in 8hrs and 46 minutes. With 18 alive it takes 10 to lynch!

    If you've seen me post VC, It just means im place holding for a vote count :3
    take a look at the four who haven't voted at this point.
    Poker is easy, it's winning at poker that's hard.
  49. #1849
    right after that pascal jumps on the dtb wagon then gizmo and aubrey both jump on the jyms wagon.
    Poker is easy, it's winning at poker that's hard.
  50. #1850
    Quote Originally Posted by GatorJH View Post
    well shit, now I can't find it. sorry about that. Getting tired.
    it didn't happen. i voted for pascal late in the pascal bandwagon. i had my vote for jyms before that.
    Free your mind and your ass will follow.
  51. #1851
    dtb jumped on jyms wagon, not gizmo
    Poker is easy, it's winning at poker that's hard.
  52. #1852
    pascal takes a pretty big lead then gizmo jumps on the jyms bandwagon
    Poker is easy, it's winning at poker that's hard.
  53. #1853
    Quote Originally Posted by JKDS View Post
    Vote Count 2.04
    Hoopy(1): bigred
    Boog(2): Jyms

    Dropthebanana(7): Rong, Pascal, wufwugy, Jackvance, Gabe, Boog, Hoopy, GatorJH
    Jyms(5): Bikes, Aubrey, Dropthebanana, Keith, Nightgizmo

    Pascal(3): Daven, Xtr1000, Ongbonga


    Not voting: Nobody

    Deadline is in 2hours 5min. With 18 alive it takes 10 to lynch!

    I'm going to run from walking-dead style zombies in March. Its gonna be awesome. Be jealous.
    Taking a standard wolf line this points to aubrey more than hoopy
    Poker is easy, it's winning at poker that's hard.
  54. #1854
    after day 2 I would say aubrey is a wolf way more often that hoopy
    Poker is easy, it's winning at poker that's hard.
  55. #1855
    i am off to bed now
    Poker is easy, it's winning at poker that's hard.
  56. #1856
    Jyms seemed a safe lynch to me because there was legitimate reason to want to lynch him (I know, this seems like the same line of thought a wolf would have - I can't exactly help that now). I wasn't sure about anyone else, except for DTB. I figured DTB was a wolf but he was going to get lynched anyway, so I just stayed put.
    Free your mind and your ass will follow.
  57. #1857
    bed for me too

    if wuf or ong are wolves i'll eat my cat

    i think hoopy is more wolf than gator.

    gator seems more opinionated about my position. he was so sure i was villager, and now that it's end game, he's scrambling to find what makes me wolfy. that's villager-y, imo, if we're adhering to the pattern of villagers more actively wolf hunting and wolves being more passive. (obv this observation is only useful if i'm lynched)
    Free your mind and your ass will follow.
  58. #1858
    Quote Originally Posted by aubreymcfate View Post
    gator seems more opinionated about my position. he was so sure i was villager, and now that it's end game, he's scrambling to find what makes me wolfy. that's villager-y, imo
    Erm... aubrey, meet gator. Unfortunately, gator is regarded by most as the best wolf within our little group. This is classic gator wolf at endgame. I'm not saying he is wolf, because his game is balanced as hell and he can easily be a villager here. But gator waiting until endgame before emerging and laying down the wolf reads, this is not a reason to think he's a villager.

    The reason I think he's a villager was his attempt to get wuf lynched today. That might have happened, and if wuf dies a villager today with gator pushing it, gator dies tomorrow. Knowing this, gator would not make that move today, and instead save that for tomorrow, hoping to make final day, where anything can happen. But I might be wrong about that, because trying to read gator is a bitch, let me assure you of that.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  59. #1859
    Quote Originally Posted by GatorJH View Post
    Taking a standard wolf line this points to aubrey more than hoopy
    only when very standard and basic. DTB outed ten minutes after Hoopy bolded him. We know for a fact that wolves almost always know about their fake out beforehand and attempt some trickery with it
  60. #1860
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    monster post....
    Some good points wuf, though I think you've started from the assumption that I'm a wolf then looked at most my posts differently because of that.
  61. #1861
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    Sure. I'm going to have to give brushstrokes though since it would be waaaaaay too much and too hard to link his posts. Anyways, here's the Hoopy overview from beginning of thread to end

    - He says he's not suspicious of Pascal, but then votes to lynch him early on the wagon
    I was neutral on pascal initially. Not the same thing.

    - He bolds DTB after me and JV and Gabe and everybody started switching from Jyms to DTB, then 10 minutes later, DTB outs as the Angel. Curiously, 10 minutes is probably about as long as it would have taken for DTB to type up his fake-outing post after he and Hoopy decided to do it then.
    Can say this about several people.

    - After Pascal dies and shows wolf, Hoopy makes some big ass post about who did what, but it serves no wolf hunting purpose at all. This is pretty standard for wolves since they don't know how to hunt but try to appear to.
    It does serve a purpose, which is to find villagers. From that mass of notes it's possible to clear several people.

    - A large portion of Hoopy's posts are basically: "I would like to hear what so n so has to say". Villagers do this occasionally, but wolves do it more often because they don't have much else to say.
    Yup I did this sometimes to force quiet people to talk. This is what I mean by starting from the assumption that I'm a wolf.

    - Hoopy is never suspicious of me at all. I don't know what this means, but it could mean that the wolves know that getting me on their side is super smart. It is also strange that he was never suspicious of me since a lot of others were.
    See the above.

    Previously, Hoopy had said several times that JV was his main wolf suspect. He bolded JV after I rallied to get JV high in the votes. He could explain why he bolded JV then because he says he was suspicious all along, but him saying "I voted last night without putting much thought into it" contradicts Hoopy's previous posts that he was suspicious of JV. JV was his very first bold of the entire game, too
    I think I was 4/5th on his wagon, the better play would have been to leave things overnight and come back in the morning.

    - Now onto the day Jyms is lynched: the only thing Hoopy says about Gizmo is that he just feels like a wolf. He bolds him early, and doesn't push for him or explain any rationale at all.
    This is true.

    - LOL Hoopy fucking rescinded Gizmo after Ong wants to make it Gizmo vs Aubrey even though he had no change in opinion whatsoever. Then lynches Jyms effectively turning Gizmo from tied with a few others at 2 to Jyms being in the lead

    - LOL he suggests a Gizmo vs Jyms wagon, but that's weird because he rescinded Gizmo. Total wolf behavior. They love to talk a lot about how fellow wolves could be wolves, but when push comes to shove, they don't pull the trigger
    No defense vs this.

    - Yet again, Hoopy buddies up to me and goes for the Boog wagon. Maybe he's not buddying so much as he's just following whatever happens, and whatever happens has just coincidentally been me directing the course

    - Yet again, Hoopy buddies up to me by making a great reason for why I can't be a wolf due to Gizmo cinching my impending doom
    Maybe I just think you're a villager? The evidence points that way.

    - Then after I come up with the "choose our final 4", he says he's okay with me dying before then and Gator is tough in the final. But he's been siding with me all game and has never said anything about me being a wolf. In fact, he previously made the best case for me being a villager, yet now he is okay with me dying?

    - Then later he seems happy with me being in the final 4. Funny how this is after I said if that happens "it would be chaos".
    You said that you didn't want to make it to the last day, that's your choice and at the time daven/Ong were viewing me as a villager so I felt that being in the final 4 with those 2 + Gator/aubrey meant a village win. Now things have changed.
  62. #1862
    If everyone thinks I'm wolfy now then you need to lynch me today to prevent a big mistake on the final day. I'm fine with that.

    lynch aubrey
  63. #1863
    At this point the wolf is among (me, Gator, aubrey) so we should be fine if we stick to those lynches.
  64. #1864
    Agreed. lynch aubrey

    I will look at Daven tonight in the event Aubrey shows up as a villager
    Poker is easy, it's winning at poker that's hard.
  65. #1865
    That's 5 for aubrey.
  66. #1866
    No wait I'm wrong, wuf changed his vote to me so it's only 4 for aubrey.
  67. #1867
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    Erm... aubrey, meet gator. Unfortunately, gator is regarded by most as the best wolf within our little group. This is classic gator wolf at endgame. I'm not saying he is wolf, because his game is balanced as hell and he can easily be a villager here. But gator waiting until endgame before emerging and laying down the wolf reads, this is not a reason to think he's a villager.

    The reason I think he's a villager was his attempt to get wuf lynched today. That might have happened, and if wuf dies a villager today with gator pushing it, gator dies tomorrow. Knowing this, gator would not make that move today, and instead save that for tomorrow, hoping to make final day, where anything can happen. But I might be wrong about that, because trying to read gator is a bitch, let me assure you of that.
    oh :/ alright. yeah it's so hard to read everyone right now... all the "lynch me now if it will help" isn't helping either. i know i'm guilty of that myself but i also know i'm a villager so it's not as bad :P

    well anyway i agree with hoopy about who the wolves are amongst.

    would be pretty crazy if it was daven.
    Free your mind and your ass will follow.
  68. #1868
    What would we do without bigred?
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  69. #1869
    I think aubrey has to go. She could be the wolf. I'm assuming she's one from lynch? I'll wait to see if anyone has anything further to add before voting.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  70. #1870
    I haven't said much today so that hopefully people coul confirm their villagerness rather than just jumping onto something i say and coasting along.My only real thoughts at the moment though are that i'm pretty sure ong is a villager and i could find things for and against virtually everyone else.
  71. #1871
    pretty sure i'll be eaten tonight since bigred is playing a zombie this game.

    for those saying hoopy/gator/aubery with hoopy gator and aubery all seemingly happy to go along wit that line ..erm ...if one of you is the wolf you lose?

    when did wuf turn into a lock villager in your eyes?
  72. #1872
    Quote Originally Posted by gator
    Quote Originally Posted by [B]JKDS
    [/B]
    Vote Count 2.04
    Hoopy(1): bigred
    Boog(2): Jyms
    Dropthebanana(7): Rong, Pascal, wufwugy, Jackvance, Gabe, Boog, Hoopy, GatorJH
    Jyms(5): Bikes, Aubrey, Dropthebanana, Keith, Nightgizmo
    Pascal(3): Daven, Xtr1000, Ongbonga

    Not voting: Nobody

    Deadline is in 2hours 5min. With 18 alive it takes 10 to lynch!

    I'm going to run from walking-dead style zombies in March. Its gonna be awesome. Be jealous.
    Taking a standard wolf line this points to aubrey more than hoopy
    Actually is this the telling vote , the wolves had to stay on jyms and hope some of the village switch back onto jyms should DTB be forced to fake claim . makes aubery look very guilty, and she also put in death lynches of pascal and i think DTB after the lynch vote had been cast. let me examine who voted when around this time before the final vote is cast
  73. #1873
    lol, i am the goofiest villager.

    in my efforts to hold off on voting before i was sure, i've made myself look really wolfy. i understand why you guys want to lynch me, but the way you are looking at my actions and the way i was thinking during the time of those actions is like... two different worlds.

    at this point, i'm not entirely sure what to do. i don't mind being lynched if it will help you guys, but i also feel a lingering need to defend myself because my lynch feels so meaningless. when i flip villager, what will that tell you guys?

    also, i've explained why i voted jyms several times now.
    Free your mind and your ass will follow.
  74. #1874
    when did wuf turn into a lock villager in your eyes?
    He's not a lock, but gizmo's push at him does swing my read on him, and his reaction to my push at him seems like genuine frustration.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  75. #1875
    i think the wolf is hoopy or gator.

    so, okay, if i go tonight, which i obviously am, how many chances do we have left to lynch a wolf? i'd like to take a stab at analyzing the both of them so i can possibly contribute in my last hours (although i don't have the context of knowing them that you guys do, so it probably won't help much, but i'll still try).
    Free your mind and your ass will follow.

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