WW 2013 Edition: The Conglomerate

[OngBonga]

I'm in no hurry to seal your lynch aubrey. If you're promising to read through and post some thoughts, I can only see the wolf sealing your lynch before you're done.

If you die villager today, we have two more lynches to win.

[daven]

right now i think likelihood of being wolf is Gator=Aubrey > Wufwugy > Hoopy > Ongbonga. I do want to look more closely at Hoopy though, and reading right through looking at everyone should make things clearer. I also want to look more closely at Wufwugy, right up until Jyms was lynched I was convinced he was villager. His posts since then are weird but I can't tell whether that is more likely wolf-spray or pissed-off-villager spray. Meh, basically I need to look at everyone except Keith and Bigred.

nothing that has happened since i posted this (post 1808) has changed my view on the relative likelihood of players being wolf. Only difference is that i think that Ongbonga is pretty close to lock-villager and that Hoopy is less close to lock than i had hoped.
I don't understand all the posts about trying to manipulate who we have remaining on the last day - I mean, i see why we want to make that day as simple as possible if we somehow screw up badly enough to get that far, but we're best off doing everything we can now so that we avoid getting down to only four players left.

[daven]

Keith, do you think that Wufwugy is capable of feigning that level of outrage and annoyance if he is indeed a wolf? the main reason i have him as less likely than Gator or Aubrey is that his posts seem brimful of genuine frustration and I don't imagine that he could pull that off.

I'm about to recommence my readthrough, starting over from that weird Pascal vote at post 413.

[Keith]

#425 VC 2.04 rong pascal and ong on dtb
#435 ong switches to pascal dtb(2)

#468 VC2.04 <- what???? we had that already . JKDS is obviously lieing here and must be the last wolf

#472 11:18 wuf rescinds jyms and lynches dtb (3)
#473 11.23 wuf says he still ok lynching jyms or anyone else thats gone close
#474 11:37 jyms posts to say he hasnt read much but will catch up on night 2
#475 11|:39 JV lynchs DTB(4)
#476 12:09 gabe lynchs dtb(5)
#477 12:10 hoopy "The 4 people I suspect (JV, bikes, DTB, Pascal) are divided up between the 2 main wagons, confusing"
#478 12:13 boog lynch dtb(6)
#479 12:14 hoopy lynch dtb(7)
#480 12:16 gator lynch dtb(8)
#481 12:26 dtb fake outs as seer

the dtb wagon ran like wildfire . the wolves couldn't have planned this and 4 votes went in 6 minutes, then a 10 minute gap and dtb outs as the seer .Until those 6 minutes DTB was sitting safe with jyms jyms getting lynched .
nobody tried jumping on jyms to slow the wagon down and keep jyms in the lead. is there time for a wolf plan to evolve in that wagon?.If a wolf , did hoopy/gator act independently . Actually i guess hoopys post could have been an attempt to deflect the theme from dtb into considering JV and bikes as well as pascal but thats a bit of a stretch.

[aubreymcfate]

the main reason i have him as less likely than Gator or Aubrey is that his posts seem brimful of genuine frustration and I don't imagine that he could pull that off.

seriously? have you even been reading my posts?

ong - the unfortunate thing is that i have class right after work today, and wont be back home until around 9 (ny time). i'll do what i can though. thank god for smart phones.

[aubreymcfate]

ok two more lynches... so if we're right about hoopy/gator, that takes care of that at least.

daven eludes me. he's put in so much effort commenting on everyone, which has earned him deserved credit and all that. but who's to say that he wouldn't put in just the same amount of effort if he was a wolf? either way he's a new player and wants to do the best he can. i don't really think he is a wolf but we need to analyze everyone, esp those who were locks all throughout the game.

[Keith]

lol class after work means you get home around 2am uk time ......wonder what time pascal had to sit up until for that late night skype call.

[aubreymcfate]

except for the part where classes hadn't started yet when that happened

[aubreymcfate]

wugy can vouch for me on that. and now you guys have to believe him bc we can't both be wolves trying to cover each other.

[Keith]

so you took part in the skype call earlier because you didn't have classes?

[aubreymcfate]

precisely my point. i knew you'd understand.

[daven]

ok, that's another few posts read.
Summary feel from those posts is that Ong is lock-villager and that Hoopy/Gator/Wufwugy/Aubrey are not. Gator and Aubrey really weren't posting much between posts 400 and 600. Nothing that locks in another villager or locks in a wolf.

Ong:
post 417 Ong is identifying gabe as likely villager, plus banana, pascal, and jackvance as likely wolves. He also put in a vote here that puts the DTB wagon into the lead.
Immediately suggests that DTB's seer claim is a fake claim (484), then moves vote from Pascal to XTR, then back to Pascal after Gabe bolds Pascal.
posts 507 and 511 points out that DTB not voting for Pascal suggests that both players are wolves
564 clears Wuf and I
570 be careful about locking villagers

Hoopy:
post 477 he suspects four players (JV, bikes, DTB, Pascal) - turns out that he has two specials and two wolves in this list
post 479 his vote for DTB is the 7th vote on that wagon, unlikely as wolf?
post 563 clears ong and I as villagers.

Wufwugy:
post 472 where Wuf votes to move off Jyms and onto DTB is interesting. I can see this move being made as either wolf or villager though, given that DTB had only two votes at this stage.
post 510 seems to be playing dumb, post 515 from Gabe asks how villager Wuf would still have possible seer bolded - defence post 521 from wuf sounds legit though. Post 523 suggesting JV as possible wolf is weird.
528, trying to stop the Pascal lynch? with 'don't hit vote ten with pascal guys' has been analysed to death already and i think it's probably a red herring.
561 suggests we simply lynch dtb and get it over with. Reiterates this post 593.
565 states that attacks on Pascal aren't enough to clear anyone

Gator:
Post 480 and gator makes the 8th vote on the DTB wagon. Again, this seems an unlikely move for a wolf to make unless the wolves have decided to sacrifice DTB at this point. DTB fake outs about ten minutes after this post.

Aubrey:
moves vote to Jyms when both Pascal and DTB were under pressure (421), insta-followed by a post from Pascal that casts suspicion on Jyms and Bikes.
post 550 voting to lynch pascal after the lynch has happened.


order of votes for DTB from post 468 onwards is (Rong, Pascal) on already, Wufwugy (472), Jackvance (475), Gabe (476), Boog (478), Hoopy (479, says he is going to sleep), Gator (480).

Ong, can you go through your rationale with respect to

Hoopy is not a wolf. Certainly not if banana and jv are wolves.

or maybe it's redundant given that jv was vig.

[OngBonga]

Yeah it's a redundant line of thought with jack being vig. I suppose I'd better stop being lazy and have a read through myself, I'm kinda just skating by right now hoping it'll not get to final day.

[daven]

seriously? have you even been reading my posts?

ong - the unfortunate thing is that i have class right after work today, and wont be back home until around 9 (ny time). i'll do what i can though. thank god for smart phones.

yep, i have been. I also note that Wuf thinks you could pull this off. And today, yet again, you are holding your vote. Please don't wait until someone is lynched before posting some analysis that explains why you think the lynch was bad today. It seems as though you have been really reluctant to identify anyone as a likely wolf so far. If you are somehow a villager and get to the end then you're going to have to start trying to figure out who is wolf and who is villager for yourself. If it's down to four then we can't afford to have you relying on the arguments of any remaining players.

[aubreymcfate]

Aubrey:
moves vote to Jyms when both Pascal and DTB were under pressure (421), insta-followed by a post from Pascal that casts suspicion on Jyms and Bikes.
post 550 voting to lynch pascal after the lynch has happened.

quick thing about this - i didn't realize that the lynch can be confirmed before the day's end, which is why i did that. was trying to be active and not too much of a bystander.

now, if i was coached, do you really think they'd have me do something as silly as that? sure they could tell me to play the noob card, but what purpose does it serve other than making me look conspicuous?

[daven]

the dtb wagon ran like wildfire . the wolves couldn't have planned this[/B] and 4 votes went in 6 minutes, then a 10 minute gap and dtb outs as the seer .Until those 6 minutes DTB was sitting safe with jyms jyms getting lynched .
nobody tried jumping on jyms to slow the wagon down and keep jyms in the lead. is there time for a wolf plan to evolve in that wagon?.If a wolf , did hoopy/gator act independently . Actually i guess hoopys post could have been an attempt to deflect the theme from dtb into considering JV and bikes as well as pascal but thats a bit of a stretch.

bold added for emphasis, i think this is key

[daven]

the dtb wagon ran like wildfire . the wolves couldn't have planned this and 4 votes went in 6 minutes, then a 10 minute gap and dtb outs as the seer .Until those 6 minutes DTB was sitting safe with jyms jyms getting lynched .
nobody tried jumping on jyms to slow the wagon down and keep jyms in the lead. is there time for a wolf plan to evolve in that wagon?.If a wolf , did hoopy/gator act independently . Actually i guess hoopys post could have been an attempt to deflect the theme from dtb into considering JV and bikes as well as pascal but thats a bit of a stretch.

bold added for emphasis
post was supposed to look like this

[daven]

Yeah it's a redundant line of thought with jack being vig. I suppose I'd better stop being lazy and have a read through myself, I'm kinda just skating by right now hoping it'll not get to final day.

if we don't hit the wolf today then you really need to have a read of the thread. Getting to a final day would be bad, and we should be able to avoid it if we all look hard enough. At the moment i have you as most likely villager outside of Keith and Bigred, so i'm obviously interested in reading what you have to say.

[aubreymcfate]

yep, i have been. I also note that Wuf thinks you could pull this off. And today, yet again, you are holding your vote. Please don't wait until someone is lynched before posting some analysis that explains why you think the lynch was bad today. It seems as though you have been really reluctant to identify anyone as a likely wolf so far. If you are somehow a villager and get to the end then you're going to have to start trying to figure out who is wolf and who is villager for yourself. If it's down to four then we can't afford to have you relying on the arguments of any remaining players.

and did you not also note that i think wuf could pull it off? doesn't that kinda cancel the whole thing out? tbh it's the internet. anyone with a bit of imagination can pull this off and the ability to write can pull this off.

also i was pretty sure i was going to be lynched today. that's why i withheld my vote.

i also understand that i am a liability in the sense that i'm a noob AND don't know anyone's personality or pattern of forum posting here (except for wug). so i'm honestly okay with my lynch due to that, but i also think my lynch is wasted if the only thing it accomplishes is eliminating a villager whose insights are not as keen as the others.

also, me not voting -/- me not trying to figure things out for myself. i just don't like to vote without an explanation but fine, i will vote based on my gut instinct and thoughts that i cannot articulate at the moment.

lynch hoopy

now i'm off for some fun city commuting. will check phone sporadically.

[daven]

quick thing about this - i didn't realize that the lynch can be confirmed before the day's end, which is why i did that. was trying to be active and not too much of a bystander.

even when you posted after the lynch of Jyms happened?

now, if i was coached, do you really think they'd have me do something as silly as that? sure they could tell me to play the noob card, but what purpose does it serve other than making me look conspicuous?

good point, only thing is that i'm also not sure if they would explicitly tell you not to. The thing with you is that based on posting thus far i can see two reasons to lynch you, vs only one for anyone else. 1 = likely wolf, 2 = if villager then likely to make huge mistakes at this stage in the game. Although I can see a second reason to lynch Gator as well: 2 = hasn't posted enough to get decent reads and everyone seems to think he's super dangerous as a wolf near the end.

[daven]

and did you not also note that i think wuf could pull it off? doesn't that kinda cancel the whole thing out? tbh it's the internet. anyone with a bit of imagination can pull this off and the ability to write can pull this off.

also i was pretty sure i was going to be lynched today. that's why i withheld my vote.

i also understand that i am a liability in the sense that i'm a noob AND don't know anyone's personality or pattern of forum posting here (except for wug). so i'm honestly okay with my lynch due to that, but i also think my lynch is wasted if the only thing it accomplishes is eliminating a villager whose insights are not as keen as the others.

also, me not voting -/- me not trying to figure things out for myself. i just don't like to vote without an explanation but fine, i will vote based on my gut instinct and thoughts that i cannot articulate at the moment.

lynch hoopy

now i'm off for some fun city commuting. will check phone sporadically.

this post makes me want to rethink the Aubrey lynch. But at the same time I think that it needs to happen. Need to do a quick review to see if this gut instinct vote is consistent with the last few posts made by Aubrey.

[OngBonga]

Ok I promise to read the thread during the ww night if we don't lynch the wolf today. I'm kinda distracted right now with poker weed and music.

I did find this from d1...

Vote Count 1.03

Pascal (2): Ongbonga, TLR
Daven(1): DroptheBanana
Keith(1): Bikes
Jyms (4): XTR1000, Keith, GatorJH, Aubrey
Fulksey (3): Boog690, Gabe, Pascal
Bigred (1): Wufwugy

Not Voting: Hoopy, Rong, Jyms, Jackvance, Daven, Nightgizmo, Fulsky, and Bigred.

Deadline is in roughly 2 days. 11 votes needed to lynch.[/COLOR][/B]

Surely there's a wolf on jyms' wagon? Looks like gator or aubrey to me.

[aubreymcfate]

It's embarrassing to admit but I only realized a person can be lynched before the days end like... A few days ago. I didn't know what wugy meant when he said lets not let pascal reach ten.

Your reasons for lynching me make sense. Same with gator. If you guys are wrong about gator, you will have one chance left. I think Hoopy is wolfy due to skating by and weakly pushing for other wolves (on phone waiting for elevator that is clearly not coming in this century, so I can't back this up much more atm)

[daven]

At this point the wolf is among (me, Gator, aubrey) so we should be fine if we stick to those lynches.

well anyway i agree with hoopy about who the wolves are amongst.

i think the wolf is hoopy or gator.

the vote for hoopy is consistent with these other posts. Going with gut on Gator vs Hoopy isn't terrible from her here.

---

wugy can vouch for me on that. and now you guys have to believe him bc we can't both be wolves trying to cover each other.

I'm not sure what to make of this

[Keith]

so you took part in the skype call earlier because you didn't have classes?

precisely my point. i knew you'd understand.

is this aubrey not thinking and admitting to being the wolf?

[aubreymcfate]

is this aubrey not thinking and admitting to being the wolf?

Is Keith being deliberately dense? I hope so. I was clearly being facetious.

[aubreymcfate]

What's not to make of my comment about classes. Wugy will vouch for me bc he know it's true. And if hes a wolf he knows if he doesn't, ill know he's a wolf.

It's not that complicated. I didn't have class during the pascal/Skype thing making Keith's point moot.

[aubreymcfate]

On the flip side if I am a wolf and lying about that, wug will also know.

[daven]

i'm wondering about whether to rescind my vote for Aubrey, thing is though that I can't see her doing anything that will remove her from the top of my list of likely wolf targets unless/until we hit the wolf.

The only other player i can entertain voting for right now is Gator. Wuf and Hoopy could obviously be wolves, but I don't think that's likely enough right now. I won't vote for Ongbonga today.

If we lynch Gator and he flips villager then we have to figure things out between [Aubrey/Hoopy/Wuf] tomorrow, if we lych Aubrey and she flips villager then it's [Gator/Hoopy/Wuf] - i can't figure out which scenario is better. Both scenarios suck, so perhaps it simply comes down to who of Gator and Aubrey is more likely to be wolf.

[daven]

wugy can vouch for me on that. and now you guys have to believe him bc we can't both be wolves trying to cover each other.

i was wondering whether you were trying to convice us that classes not having started = you can't be a wolf. I'm also really careful of any interplay between you and wuf (although obviously i know you can't both be wolves) based on wuf's posts about not defending or attacking you earlier in the thread, nor even commenting on you too much.

[GatorJH]

even when you posted after the lynch of Jyms happened?


good point, only thing is that i'm also not sure if they would explicitly tell you not to.

Actually it's not as great of a point as you think. I can't tell you how many times I posted in the wolf forum asking a fellow wolf to make a certain move and have a couple of hours go by before that wolf gets the post and acts.

I am wondering why Aibrey is fighting so hard to stay alive now when she was like "it's ok if you want to lunch me" until the votes started coming in.

If she does turn up villager you can bet that my ENTIRE focus tomorrow will be giving you guys stuff to help find the wolf on the last day (because I know I am a villager). I wouldn't spend an iota of energy trying to sway the village from not lynching me as it would most likely be the most logical move.

[aubreymcfate]

Daven - no I wasn't trying to use that as the reason I'm not wolf. Merely pointing out why Keith's argument wouldn't hold up.

Gator - I'm not fighting being lynched. I already expressed my reservations about being lynched (what will me flipping villager shed light on? No one had answered this). I have absolutely commented on other players as well, so I don't know what you're talking about. Perhaps I am too defensive but it's frustrating when the focus is on me and I should not be the focus. This doesn't mean I shouldn't be lynched.

But I agree, let's shut the fuck up about me already.

[aubreymcfate]

Wuf is the best person I can offer my insight on.

I do honestly believe he could pull this off as a wolf if he wanted to. However, I don't think that his strategy would be to act emotional, heated over stupidity, and admitting he was drunk all game and shouldn't even be in it.

It's not that he can't act like angry wuf, I just don't think he would deliberately choose any of this as a game plan.

I have anecdotal evidence to support this but I'm not sure if its allowed. Wouldn't be outside source or anything, just me saying stuff.

All that being said I have no idea how different wolf wuf is from regular life wuf. But I strongly doubt, on an intuitive level, that he is a wolf.

Also, fwiw, wuf is one of my closest friends, and I only know him online, so all I know is online wuf.

[aubreymcfate]

Lol hate typing on my phone. Last sentence was stupid an unclear - the point I'm trying to make is that my perception of him isn't confused with his real life personality. I read him really well online and it's all I have to go off of, which I think makes my intuition in regards to him even more credible.

[wufwugy]

When we take a step back and look at it from the macro picture, Hoopy is the wolf here way more than anybody else because his posts have the least amount of quality and villagery content in them. He has done no wolf-hunting whatsoever and has posted only really agreeable and standard things. Even the sporadic poster in Gator and the nub poster in Aubrey have done more to advance the position of the village than Hoopy. Time and time again, we have seen wolves be the ones who have done the least real genuine wolf-hunting.

If you don't agree with me, then agree with the two players that are widely considered in the top five best on this forum: Rilla and the JVP. Rilla has stated and acted upon his villager strategy many times, which is that the wolves are the ones who do the least and the villagers are the ones who do the most. The JVP got his name because while he was already considered a top player, he caught the entire wolf team two games in a row. In this game, he has so far been the most accurate player due to being the vig and shooting Gizmo

Even though I didn't think so at first, the JVP was on his game this time, and his dying wish was that Hoopy be the first lynched. I think with his opinion on that and with my demonstration of Hoopy's highly wolfy post activity this game, we need to make 100% certain that we lynch Hoopy

I don't care if you wanna do it today, tomorrow, or the final day, just make sure you do it. So figure out in your mind who needs to die in order for you to want to kill Hoopy more than anybody, then let's go with it

From my perspective, I am always a villager, Ong and Daven are almost always villagers, and the most likely wolf to least likely lynch order then becomes Hoopy-->Aubrey-->Gator

If you guys are not confident in leaving me alive for the entire game, then lynch me today or tomorrow, then lynch Hoopy next, but do not leave me and Hoopy alive on the final day then lynch me. The same goes for Aubrey and Gator; do not leave one of them alive for the final day along with Hoopy or me and decide to still not lynch Hoopy. We need to give the JVP his final wish and make sure Hoopy dies. I think my big post on him showed why he's a wolf very often anyways. What you need to do is figure out who among Aubrey, Gator, and Wufwugy you will give the "lock-villager" status to in order to make sure that you lynch Hoopy before the game is over

[wufwugy]

I thought the day was ending a couple hours from now, but apparently the time frame JKDS gave was that it ended around a couple minutes ago. But the time frames aren't set in stone until declared as such, apparently, so make up your minds now

[a500lbgorilla]

Hi, friends. I will be locking this thread on time or as soon as I can verify time has expired.

The thread will not be locked until it is digitally locked.

[OngBonga]

I thought we had another day lol

[Hoopy]

Assuming there is a tomorrow we should lynch me, for reasons that I'll explain then.

[OngBonga]

I assume aubrey is lynched today?

[wufwugy]

aubrey isnt lynched until thread is closed

it's 4 to 2, aubrey to hoopy

[a500lbgorilla]

[JKDS]

Vote Count 6.02

Aubrey(4 DEADLINE LYNCH!): Daven, Keith, Hoopy, Gator
Hoopy(2): Wufwugy, Aubrey

Not Voting: Bigred, ongbonga

The deadline has been reached! With 4 votes, Aubrey is lynched!

Openface chinese poker is a fucking sick game. Holy fuck im bad at it.

[JKDS]

INTERMISSION

[JKDS]

Aubrey, a Villager, has been lynched!

The Conglomerate

Living Members of the board
Hoopy
Wufwugy
Ongbonga
Daven
Gator
Keith
Bigred

6 Villagers
1 Wolves

The Deceased
Fulksy, The Angel, Lynched Day 1
TLR, Regular Villager, Killed Night 1
Pascal, Wolf, Lynched Day 2
Gabe, Regular Villager, Killed Night 2
XTR1000, Regular Villager, Killed Night 2
Dropthebanana, Wolf, Lynched Day 3
Rong, Regular Villager, Killed Night 3
Jyms, Regular Villager, Lynched Day 4
Bikes, The Seer, Killed Night 4
Nightgizmo, Wolf, Killed Night 4
Boog, Regular Villager, Lynched Day 5
Jackvance, The Vigilante, Killed Night 5
Aubrey, Regular Villager, Lynched Day 6

It is now Night 6. Night will last for up to 48 hours. The 24hour minimum is now no longer being enforced.

[JKDS]

STATIC

[JKDS]

Keith, a Villager, has been killed!

The Conglomerate

Living Members of the board
Hoopy
Wufwugy
Ongbonga
Daven
Gator
Bigred

5 Villagers
1 Wolves

The Deceased
Fulksy, The Angel, Lynched Day 1
TLR, Regular Villager, Killed Night 1
Pascal, Wolf, Lynched Day 2
Gabe, Regular Villager, Killed Night 2
XTR1000, Regular Villager, Killed Night 2
Dropthebanana, Wolf, Lynched Day 3
Rong, Regular Villager, Killed Night 3
Jyms, Regular Villager, Lynched Day 4
Bikes, The Seer, Killed Night 4
Nightgizmo, Wolf, Killed Night 4
Boog, Regular Villager, Lynched Day 5
Jackvance, The Vigilante, Killed Night 5
Aubrey, Regular Villager, Lynched Day 6
Keith, Regular Villager, Killed Night 6

It is now Day 7. The day will end in 72 hours. With 6 alive it takes 4 to lynch!

[jyms]

I'm going to open this because I think it's supposed to be and his new powers are too new to remember to unlock a locked thread. He never said anything about it in the dead thread and hasn't posted since much earlier today

[wufwugy]

thanks holmes

lynch hoopy

[GatorJH]

thanks holmes

lynch hoopy

nope. I think the last wolf is daven, but need tomorrow to look deeper. I took a look at Daven on day 1 and this is what I saw.

A first time villager who locks onto a player on day 1. Never happens.

Votes for Pascal, but only in the early stages of the game. When it looked like the vote could go either Jyms (I think) or Pascal he makes a few posts leading up to a switch, but then it turns to fulksey backs off. I will post the exact quotes tomorrow as well as look at Day 2 with him. I will also look at Day 1 and 2 for Hoopy but right now I would put it at.

Daven 75% wolf
Hoopy - 60% wolf
Wuf - 50% wolf
Ong - Never

[OngBonga]

Looks to me like gator is making his move.

[OngBonga]

Daven 75% wolf
Hoopy - 60% wolf
Wuf - 50% wolf

lol cmon gator you're smarter than this.

[wufwugy]

Not having gone over Daven's posts, I missed a lot. Like how DTB's first post is bolding Daven, which is something he would do if they were both wolves so much. Also a bunch of Daven's content is really just meta (being self-aware of the game itself and what's going on) and commentary.

[OngBonga]

Cmon wuf, gator is much more suspect than daven. Stop muddying the waters. Banana voted for daven early, while pascal called him wolfy without reading his posts, which is why I was hounding pascal. Daven, in turn, has been hard at pascal and banana at times, if I recall correctly.

I'm up to page 7. It's gone 4am, will continue tomorrow.

[OngBonga]

Oh yeah, gator dumped a vote on dan at a time when the fulsky wagon was taking off. I called him out on it, saying it looked like a tactical vote to not be on the mislynch wagon with his buddies, and he comes up with something like "yeah I explained by dan vote, but you're right, it's not going anywhere and I always prefer inactives". So why the dan vote in the first place? I felt that was a really dodgy vote then, I still think it's dodgy now. And gator coming in today and pointing the finger at daven, he has to have a plan if he is the wolf.

[wufwugy]

Cmon wuf, gator is much more suspect than daven. Stop muddying the waters. Banana voted for daven early, while pascal called him wolfy without reading his posts, which is why I was hounding pascal. Daven, in turn, has been hard at pascal and banana at times, if I recall correctly.

I'm up to page 7. It's gone 4am, will continue tomorrow.

Well I would consider those evidences of the wolves hedging with each other

But this could be Gator making his move. He did magically wake up with the excuse that he can post more now due to whatever, and the first thing he did was make a big ass post about how he thinks I'm such a wolf, but then abandoned it very easily when it wasn't going anywhere. Now he's pointing the finger at Daven in the same way

So yeah, statistically, the wolf is still either Hoopy or Gator long before anybody else

[JKDS]

whoops, deadline will be adjusted to when jyms unlocked it.

[wufwugy]

It's such a shame that I grunched so much of the thread and expected to die early because I didn't look much at all at Hoopy, Gator, and Daven until two days ago I went over all of Hoopy's posts

Gator does not look good in his posts since becoming active though. It's funny how he "REALLY" though I was the last wolf, but nobody bit so he said he'd rather have me around more than Aubrey, even though he gave himself an excellent reason to think Aubrey was a villager when he pointed out that if she was a wolf that all wolves were trying to lynch fulksy. And now he's on Daven and doesn't think much about me

[OngBonga]

I wonder what bigred is thinking?

Maybe something like...

This chair looks comfy. I wonder if the humans have left me any milk? That would be nice, some milk and a nice lie down. Wassat? Oh fuck it's the dog, I'm gonna hide under the chair where he can't get me. Fuck you dog, ruining my vibe.

[wufwugy]

found a pic of jkds and his sister rockin out

[daven]

I'm finding Gator really hard to read. Would he really try and get me lynched if he was a wolf? it seems a bit unlikely as he could probably go after easier lynch targets (I'm thinking Hoopy or Wuf here).
My level zero response is that his desire to lynch me makes it more likely that he is a villager.

however.... note that he reads wuf's monster post(1838) on Hoopy and responds with (1840)

lemme look at hoopy and see If I see the same stuff wuf sees above.

then decides hoopy is looking at least a little wolfish

This vote says a lot. If you believe the wolves were taking a "let's attack each other some" line then either wuf or ong could be wolves. On the other hand if, at this point they were taking more of a standard line, hoopy and aubrey look wolfish but hoopy more as I doubt three wolves would be on the same lynch.

later he posts

after day 2 I would say aubrey is a wolf way more often that hoopy

without really explaining why

and then a few posts later (1864) he seems to have cleared Hoopy

Agreed. lynch aubrey

I will look at Daven tonight in the event Aubrey shows up as a villager

I'm not yet sure what to make of these posts from Gator other than they make him look suspicious, I'll hopefully have a better idea on him once i finish the thread readthrough.

[daven]

A first time villager who locks onto a player on day 1. Never happens.

obviously i don't know what normally happens, but i do know that i spotted what i thought was a very likely wolf pretty early on and saw nothing that convinced me otherwise. Turned out that i was right. I was obviously wrong about the next player i got heavily suspicious of (Jyms) though.

Votes for Pascal, but only in the early stages of the game. When it looked like the vote could go either Jyms (I think) or Pascal he makes a few posts leading up to a switch, but then it turns to fulksey backs off. I will post the exact quotes tomorrow as well as look at Day 2 with him. I will also look at Day 1 and 2 for Hoopy but right now I would put it at.

re day 1 - pascal looked solid wolf from the start, i voted for him reasonably early and from memory i didn't move my vote from him on day one, and then voted for him again on day 2 and stayed with this vote until he was lynched. I'm not sure why voting for someone because he continued to look like the most likely wolf is suspicious? I'm pretty sure i was the first to suggest day 1 wagons on an inactive vs the most likely wolf and as part of that identified pascal as most likely wolf. I wasn't planning to read through the first 400 posts again until after i finished my thread review, but i can if anyone needs post references for my votes etc.

Daven 75% wolf
Hoopy - 60% wolf
Wuf - 50% wolf
Ong - Never

i don't see how we can have % working like this when there is only one wolf left. I agree that Ong is lockiest-lock-villager (other than Bigred obviously). I'm going to postpone identifying most likely wolf from [Gator/Wuf/Hoopy] until i get at least another few couple of hundred posts through the thread review.

[daven]

Not having gone over Daven's posts, I missed a lot. Like how DTB's first post is bolding Daven, which is something he would do if they were both wolves so much. Also a bunch of Daven's content is really just meta (being self-aware of the game itself and what's going on) and commentary.

most of my content (apart from my early day 1 kill bill references etc) is posting my perspective on what is happening and which things are important + identifying who i think the wolves are + trying to figure out whether a player is wolf or villager + my reasoning for this. I'm not sure if this means the same thing as meta+commentary, if so, then we agree.

[daven]

Cmon wuf, gator is much more suspect than daven. Stop muddying the waters. Banana voted for daven early, while pascal called him wolfy without reading his posts, which is why I was hounding pascal. Daven, in turn, has been hard at pascal and banana at times, if I recall correctly.

i don't think i went after dtb at all beyond saying that we'd find out soon if he was wolf or seer - i actually argued against lynching him on the day he got lynched because i was worried about him being seer, it seemed safer to wait a day on that front.
I've gone after Pascal since the start obviously.

[daven]

It's funny how he "REALLY" though I was the last wolf, but nobody bit so he said he'd rather have me around more than Aubrey, even though he gave himself an excellent reason to think Aubrey was a villager when he pointed out that if she was a wolf that all wolves were trying to lynch fulksy.

he was also the fourth player to vote to lynch Aubrey (1864)

[daven]

If she does turn up villager you can bet that my ENTIRE focus tomorrow will be giving you guys stuff to help find the wolf on the last day

this sounds good, i'd like to see it. If you're a villager then this is obviously going to be great for us, if you're a wolf then you're likely to end up giving yourself away. We benefit either way.

[daven]

Votes for Pascal, but only in the early stages of the game. When it looked like the vote could go either Jyms (I think) or Pascal he makes a few posts leading up to a switch, but then it turns to fulksey backs off. I will post the exact quotes tomorrow as well as look at Day 2 with him. I will also look at Day 1 and 2 for Hoopy but right now I would put it at.

bold added for emphasis
I just skimmed day 1. Which exact posts are you talking about exactly?

[GatorJH]

I have to drive from Jax to Atl this morning but will leave you with this.

If I don't get lynched today you guys aren't looking at things close enough because if I look at my posts I would think I am a wolf (but I am not btw). So my goal is to review things tonight so you can make the best decision possible tomorrow.

I will be back online later this afternoon/evening with more thoughts.

[Hoopy]

The reason we need to get rid of me today is because nobody views me as a villager anymore. If we lynch Gator and he's somehow not the wolf then I get snap lynched the next day and we lose.

I'm going to read over daven's posts and see if there's anything that can prove he's a villager.

[OngBonga]

What the fuck, we have gator saying "I'd think I was a wolf", hoopy saying "lynch me"... this game is giving me a headache. It's sunday and I wanna do other shit, so balls to this until tomorrow.

[bigred]

What the fuck, we have gator saying "I'd think I was a wolf", hoopy saying "lynch me"... this game is giving me a headache. It's sunday and I wanna do other shit, so balls to this until tomorrow.

I said that five days ago and still going strong!

Final wolf, come forward and save us some time!

[wufwugy]

My desired lynch went from Hoopy>Gator to Gator>Hoopy. Here's why

Most of my rationale for Hoopy is in the lines of JV's i.e. kill the most statistically likely wolf. But now in just the last couple days Gator has become the most likely wolf. The reason for this is he's pulling a heavily wolfy and highly Gatoresque move by waking up and trying to drive the discussion in the late game. TLR did this in my very first game and I was the first person to pick up on it, JV did it when he was wolf with Ong and DTB, Boog did it in the last game, and Gator has done it before. It's very standard wolf. This is one thing that Hoopy hasn't actually been doing too much. I thought I noticed some by him, but it was weak relative to what usually happens. Hoopy is largely a "loose end" so to speak, but Gator was always a target right behind him or comparable to him, and he is now showing some very wolfy colors

Gator is probably the best endgame player we have; I think this because in my seer game I had him as the remaining wolf after I died and watched him school the rest of the game in very tricky ways. The reason he's going after Daven is because if Hoopy dies today then Gator dies tomorrow. But if he can kill Daven, then we will kill Hoopy tomorrow, or so he thinks (because of me), or we even kill me. With Daven out of the way, a non-Gator lynch can happen somewhat easily, but with Hoopy out of the way, we'll all want to lynch Gator a lot and Ong and Daven will both be considered lock-villagers. And when it comes to Wuf vs Gator, he knows he will lose that

So if Gator is a wolf, then the move he makes (because he's really fucking smart) is trying to kill Daven today. He NEEDS Daven to die today in order for him to not die tomorrow

Furthermore, his rationales for why people are wolves aren't really that fantastic. I mean, I went back over Daven's bolding of Pascal and it's not a weird thing. The point of him being a nub seems irrelevant to it as well. Part of my problem with trying to figure out Gator is that in my moddings I noticed he says some seriously confusing shit that he believes as a villager. However, if we're sticking to Werewolf Theory 101, Gator is wolfing it up here. WWT101 is kinda the only way I've ever caught any wolves too

[wufwugy]

lynch gator

[GatorJH]

that's already two for me. If I die before having time to give you my thoughts then the village is fucked and I will sit in the dead thread telling you I told you so.

I am a villager and am willing to help, but need some time.

[wufwugy]

he's playing hard to get

and it's only one vote. wolf gator would say two though