WW 2013 Edition: The Conglomerate

[daven]

we have both Ong (lock-villager in my eyes) and Gator (?) saying they're going to read the thread and provide their thoughts. Hopefully Hoopy will be doing so as well. We should wait until they've had time to do this before lynching anyone today. If we lynch Gator and he flips villager then having his reads will obviously be valuable, same goes for Hoopy or Wuf.

At the moment I think the last wolf is in [Gator/Hoopy/Wuf] and more likely to be one of [Gator/Hoopy] than to be Wuf. I do wonder why Wuf is so eager to lynch early though.

that's already two for me. If I die before having time to give you my thoughts then the village is fucked and I will sit in the dead thread telling you I told you so.

I am a villager and am willing to help, but need some time.

i think it's only one bold [Wuf] on you so far. I'm happy to hold my vote for a while at least, i want to get through the thread before bolding anyone today.

[daven]

i've reached post 800. After summarising all of JV's posts as i go, and watching how his reads evolve as the game continues, I've just clicked about something that should have been really obvious. The most recent reads, theories, observations, and voting patterns given by villagers before they are killed are the most relevant. I mean, if JV thinks someone is possible wolf on day 1, but then lock villager on day 3 then obviously the day 1 read becomes redundant. So, i'll keep summarising JV's posts as i go, but won't bother posting anything about them here until i reach his end because there doesn't seem to be any point in doing so.

[daven]

Also, in case anyone wanted more evidence for Ong = villager, look at his post 628 where he was (among?) the first to seriously suggest gizmo is a wolf

[daven]

hoopy and gator weren't posting much at all, here are posts/comments that seem relevant from post 570-800.
Gator
579 - definitely shouldn't lynch DTB the day after he fake outed.
721 - Bikes/aubrey seem random, could be wolf, bigred suspicious, keith likely villager, wuf is wuf and likely villager, points out the jyms 'got a lot going on' defence and votes to lynch Jyms
745 - if jyms flips wolf then ong could be one too (no rationale)
767 - only skimmed last pages, observes jyms wagon was fast which leans towards jyms = villager

Hoopy
683 - ignore DTB/Boog, more from Gator and jyms please
770 - bikes on villager pile, re wolves blending in theory: gator and gizmo have the most forgettable posts
798 - lynch JV, no reasoning
799 - asks why consider wuf a target?

[daven]

wuf has been posting heaps, something about his tone through all of his posts makes me think he's a villager. It's hard to point at anything concrete though. I'll copy across the notes i made in case something jumps out for someone else.

Key point from his posts (to me) is that he seems pretty locked into the idea that DTB was wolf not seer from pretty early on when there was a lot of noise suggesting that DTB should be left to live another day. This seems villager to me.

Wuf - clears jyms as a villager (572), seems certain that DTB is wolf
593 - pushes for a dtb lynch
post 604 - JV likely villager if not 'sick as fuck'
604 - boog villager, dtb wolf
614 - dtb and keith both wolves
around the whole skype thing he talks about not noticing, which is unlikely, but then explains why pretty thoroughly (626)
698 - Jyms no longer lock-villager, DTB never seer, last two wolves among [jyms/bikes/jv]
700 - lynch JV
701 - jyms vs jv
722 - moves to the jyms wagon straight after gator does
729 - rescinds jyms after ong's epic post defending jyms and identifying jv as wolf, 731 moves lynch vote to JV
many short posts basically stream of consciousness sounding stuff
786-789 - 'jv is always a wolf', time to drink
795 - no response to keith's wuf = wolf read, because it's too convoluted. Derence re not killing his team if he's wolf.

[daven]

right now i think that the likelihood of the last wolf being one of [Hoopy/Gator] is way higher than one of [Wufwugy/Hoopy] or [Wufwugy/Gator]

[Hoopy]

daven has 160 posts, 3rd behind wuf + Ong.

Would a someone new to the game who is a wolf post this much?

Unlikely.

[GatorJH]

you're right, its only one.

[Hoopy]

Yup looked over daven's posts and there's consistant wolf hunting in them. Plus he had an important vote on pascal all through day 2.

It has to be Gator at this point since I know I'm a villager.

[JKDS]

Vote Count 7.01

Gator(1): Wufwugy

Not Voting: Hoopy, Ongbonga, Daven, Gator, Bigred

Deadline is in 2days, 2hours, 34 minutes! With 6 alive it takes 4 to lynch!

Sorry again about the fail unlock guys. My excuse is rated R though, so there is that.

Edit: Hrmph. I forgot we had that "no editing posts older than 24 hours" thing. Bah.

For the lazy, the exact deadline is February 12th, 2013 at 7:44 UTC-7

[wufwugy]

give jkds mod powers and this is what happens

[JKDS]

Welcome to WW 2013 Edition: The Conglomerate!!!

...

Rules

...
·
Modkills

...
2) I reserve the right to modkill for any other reason I so choose. I will NOT do this lightly. Examples:
---Excessive flaming

You think I jest, temptress? I am the rocks of the eternal shore. CRASH AGAINST ME AND BE BROKEN!

[wufwugy]

hey at least i put you on star trek. that shit balls so hard

[OngBonga]

Hey JKDS, what happens if wuf gets modkilled? Do we win or does town get punished?

Not that I'm fishing for info or anything.

Anyway I'm drunk, I'll read after I've slept.

[GatorJH]

Yup looked over daven's posts and there's consistant wolf hunting in them. Plus he had an important vote on pascal all through day 2.

It has to be Gator at this point since I know I'm a villager.

Seriously? This is what I see.

A first time player seeing two MINOR posts from Pascal then posting the following:

pascal not having time to read the story but then popping into the thread to post again a couple of hours again seems like it means something. Wolfy?

A half hour later makes the following post

also, it seems really early in the game to be making soulreads. I mean, the majority of people haven't even posted yet. Definitely seems early for me to be comfortable locking in a lynch. Then again, we have to start somewhere. For now, Boog and Pascal are the only two i can imagine bolding from among those who have posted thus far.

even though he had just posted this about Boog

the boog-wuf interplay at the start got me suspicious but i doubt it means anything at all

After that there are a TON of votes for a bunch of people. Pascal ends up in the lead with 2 and fulksey has 2 when pascal votes for fulksey (giving him 3):

rescind Ong
lynch fulksy

Agree that best to lynch inactives, I've seen jyms play previous games before so at least there's some history there

Jyms picks up his 3rd shortly after that then daven posts the following:

who are most likely to be wolves? I guess it's best to start from the an 'innocent until proven guilty' perspective cos probability of randomly chosen player being villager >>> than being wolf.

So far I'm more suspicious than neutral regarding a few people who have posted.
1 - Pascal, for the reason i mentioned in my earlier post. Most likely wolf in my list at the moment, but i'm not yet confident enough to think that bolding him is better than bolding an inactive.
2 - Boog. Suggests targeting inactives. Disappears. Turns up later with another no content post and more support for targeting inactives. Disappears.
3 - Wufwugy - but the more he posts, the less suspicious i get
4 - Bikes. His reasons for not lynching people are interesting. Could there be a possible 'i don't mind too much who we lynch cos i'll lynch them at night instead'. And i don't see any rationale behind his choice of keith as a lynch. Then again, this choice is probably pretty meaningless cos day 1 etc.

Nothing strong enough there to think we're better off going after one of them rather than an inactive. Re inactives, it seems that we end up with similar problems with those who post rarely and without content

Pascal and Boog again are the only two he wants to lynch, but no vote.

A vote count is then posted that shows jyms with 4, fulksey with 3 and pascal with 2.

With pascal safely behind Daven now throws out a vote for him with the following:

^ I've thought about this a bunch and it still feels like a good idea
Fulksey vs Pascal
= an inactive vs the player i'm most suspicious of thus far.
sound good?

Lynch Pascal

Daven goes silent, more talk happens and the vote count gets to fulksey (6), Pascal (4) and Daven (3). Shortly after that fulksey is lynched.

I find it interesting that he locked onto Pascal after two meaningless posts, but waited until two other people were ahead before making his vote.

Day 2

Pascal and Ong go after each other for a while and nothing from Daven until the following:

any lists of inactive posters should include posters who are providing no content in support of their lynches. Reading though the thread it seems like there are four inactives = Bigred, Dropthebanana, Bikes, Jackvance

TLR being killed is the only completely solid info we have to go on at the moment, it suggests that we should look more closely at Pascal and Hoopy.
Jyms absence then sudden appearance when he started to look at risk looks very suspicious, along with the timing of his switch to lynch Fulksey.

there is some really weird interplay going on between a few posters as well. I'm going to read through again and see if i can figure anything out.

At this point I had barely been active, yet am not mentioned at all. Also, not sure what a TLR lynch has to do with Pascal, but he contradicts himself in the very next post:

pascal - didn't really posted much content (except some in posts 164 and 165) at all on day 1 except for defending against wolf allegations => His posting on day 1 still looks wolfy. His posting in response to wuf and what tlr's death means seems like he's taking more of an interest, but i think that is likely to happen irrespective of his role. The post keith found re skype doesn't seem to change anything - i mean, i can't figure out whether it makes him more or less likely to be a wolf.

He makes a few more posts then puts out the 2nd vote for Pascal, however Boog and (I think) hoopy both had 2 votes so no danger for Pascal yet.

A vote count is posted that shows Pascal in the lead with 3 votes, hoopy also with three and boog/Jyms with 2. Pascal picks up his 4th. At this point HE votes to give dtb his 2nd vote (notice the pattern of wolves voting for wolves when there is no danger in the vote?)

DTB then quickly picks up a 3rd vote and this is where, I think, Daven starts to hedge. He makes the following post setting up a potential switch to hoopy or jyms, the two villagers with the votes at that point:

forgot to mention earlier that i'll be afk for about 30hrs - going away for a stag party. Leaving in about 3hrs. Just telling y'all now cos otherwise i can imagine the lot of yas going on weird 'daven is inactive' tangents.

I just skimmed over the last few pages and I'm about to do a more thorough read through, there are heaps of new posts but nothing really interesting stands out at first glance on the voting front. I'm more and more zoning in on Pascal/Jyms/Hoopy. There still seem to be a bunch of inactives, but it seems that there is a theme to leave inactives alone? i don't like it - we get no info from inactives and it suggests to me that there are at least some wolves hiding that way.

Through an XTR rescind of pascal jyms takes the lead even though he and Pascal are tied at 4 when Daven makes another hedge post with the interesting part bolded for emphasis:

The people on each wagon is interesting, there are 4 players with 3 or more votes.
Hoopy wagon has 3 low content players (Bigred, GatorJH, Jackvance), none of whom i have much of a read on yet. I doubt that a situation would occur where 3 wolves trying to get by as relative inactives end up all voting for the same player though. This makes me think that at least a couple of these players are villagers. Which makes it seem more likely that Hoopy is wolf.

Dropthebanana has 3 interesting voters (Rong, Pascal, Ongbonga). All of whom look at least a bit wolfy (rong mostly due to his post that i quoted above though, i'll do a read through of his posts once i'm done with this).

Jyms has 4 players on him (Bikes, Wufwugy, Aubrey, Dropthebanana). For now i feel like Wuf and Aubrey are village, Bikes could be doing anything with any role because he's being relatively inactive, and Dropthebanana is also low content. I've been suspicious of Jyms ever since a wagon started on him as inactive and then he insta-turned up. Then he posts an excuse (post 305) for not posting for a while which seems to be a good way for a wolf who knows he looks suspicious to attempt to just disappear for a while.

Pascal has 4 players on him (me, Gabe, Hoopy, XTR1000). Hoopy looks wolf, Gabe has made interesting posts, XTR1000 looks suspicious but low content. I'm leaning away from Pascal for now, mostly because i think he won't be able to last another day without outing himself if he's a wolf.

followed pretty quickly by the following

i want to wait a while before moving my vote, mostly because i want to see if Rong responds to my question regarding his post about Droptothebanana

I think Jyms looks like a really good lynch for now, and I'm suspicious that (again) his wagon is reaching 4 votes then stalling. XTR1000 moving his vote looks wolfy as hell, seems as though he's trying to get another wagon moving faster than Jyms'. Pascal is being really active, he's still managing to look like a somewhat confused wolf though.

Setting up his switch if it is needed.

Jyms takes a solid lead when Daven posts the following:

ok, I'm trying to figure out what is best re my vote given that i'll be outa here pretty soon and not back before the day ends. It almost seems most sensible to simply not vote? I mean, the person i was planning on switching my vote to after i had looked at the players on each wagon was jyms - but I'm hesitant to vote for him now because he already has numbers and if he's a villager then having yet another vote on him seems like it could make things too easy for the wolves.

Why would a non vote be sensible when he has openly suspected both of the key bandwagons? Could it be a fallback in case he has to leave and the vote is still too close to call?

45 minutes later posts -

ok, i'm outa here. Leaving my vote as it is. I'll be back just over a day from now.

Did he get coaching that Pascal was safe enough to leave his vote there?

It was AFTER this that the dtb wagon took off, he outed as the fake seer and pascal got lynched instead of jyms.


When he gets back he makes a couple of posts that lock in on jyms, makes a long post quoting all of Gabe's posts, but no analysis, goes away for a while then makes another post locked in on jyms, makes two more non-descript posts then goes away again. Comes back and posts a recap of the voting then makes another post focused on jyms.

He makes a few more posts that are mostly focused on jyms, then towards the end of the day when it was between DTB (5) and wuf(4) he mentions that he would vote for DTB over wuf, but then surprisingly throws out a vote for bigred giving him 3.

So through 24 pages of his first game he spent 90% of the time locking in on Pascal (but only voted for him when it was safe), jyms and calling wuf a villager.

Can someone please tell me again why he is a lock villager?

[GatorJH]

One final thought for tonight. Yesterday Hoopy, myself and Aubrey were ALL agreeing that the village should lynch the three of us over the next few days. Why would a wolf take this line unless he was VERY confident that he could get the village to move off of it?

I am not advocating not lynching me today, but don't want the village to lose because hoopy gets snap lynched tomorrow because if my thinking is correct in that the three of us thought one of the other two was a wolf then the real wolf can just sit back and foster that thought process. I think that wolf is daven so PLEASE take a HARD look at him tomorrow.

[wufwugy]

can i lynch gator again?

[GatorJH]

Again, I really don't care if you lynch me today. If you really think that is a ploy ask yourself this - what do I have to gain by continuously bringing it up?

Just make sure you open your eyes before you kill another villager that you have pegged as 100% wolf.

[daven]

i'm not at all sure what to make of this, it's either wolf-gator making a huge move or villager-gator making a huge mistake. I can't figure out whether that makes it better or worse to lynch him today. I note that he doesn't even seem to look at my posts since day 2...

[OngBonga]

Morning. Got a few things I need to do, will get stuck in over the next few hours.

Pretty sure this is gator wolf. If wolf feels he's likely to get lynched today or tomorrow, he has to make a play. Daven and myself were sitting pretty comfortably and neither of us would feel we need to try hard to avoid lynch, wuf and hoopy would probably sit tight and hope for the best. But gator, if he's wolf he knows he's in the shit. Best thing he can do is try his hardest to ensure there are less lock villagers. Thus, this push at daven stinks.

There's reasons for why me, daven, wuf and hoopy are villagers. There's no reason why gator is a villager. That process of elimination suggests strongly gator is our man today, and if there's a tomorrow, then headache time. I certainly won't be voting though until I've had chance to read through, and I will also ensure gator has time to respond.

Back in an hour or two.

[OngBonga]

Fulksey (11, Lynch!): Boog690, Gabe, Pascal, Nightgizmo, Xtr1000, Aubrey, GatorJH, Wufwugy, DropTheBanana, Bikes, Jyms

Ok so here's the fulsky wagon. Gator was only on this wagon because I moaned at him for voting dan...

Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
This looks like a carefully placed vote so as not to be on a successful town wagon, or linked to other wolves. This wagon is never going through, is it? So why bother voting for someone who has shown himself to be a strong villager in the past? This vote is highly suspicious. I got my eye on you gator.
I explained why I went after Rong and still think he wouldn't be a bad choice.

With that said since you are correct in that it isn't going anywhere and I would ALWAYS prefer to lynch inactives instead of letting them get modkilled I will switch to a lynch fulksey

Always? So why wasn't you on the wagon before then? Because there were already two wolves on with another planning to pile on?

Before banana jumped onto this wagon, he was on daven, and daven managed to totally avoid this wagon, he was on pascal with me.

Wuf jumped on late too, stating it was either fulsky or pascal, and hoopy was on jack. So there's still two people remaining who look a little dodgy at this time.

So... TLR gets nommed, and wuf is diving straight in with "knew TLR was gonna get killed" and blames it on hoopy. It's quite amazing that wuf can get a read from a TLR n1 kill, since literally any wolf team can kill TLR first.

This needs to be posted in its entirety...

Originally Posted by rong View Post
In fact, I hate the whole thing between Wuf and Ong.

Wuf says Ong is very unlikely to have made the TLR kill.
Ong latches on to this and calls himself cleared.
Ong says Wuf should be listened to.
Ong bolds someone who is in Wuf's list of likely wolves.

This EXACTLY. Also, Wuf posted 10 minutes after the TLR kill was announced yet seemingly already had everything figured out.

And wuf is also smart enough to know this......

Originally Posted by gabe View Post
TLR is a solid player and its +EV for the wolves to kill him. i dont think we should factor in his posts because the wolves could be on any level

At this point wuf tops my list, but I could also be talked into voting for Pascal. I also think Jyms is just busy and really think he would put more effort into posting some if he were a wolf.

If Bigred continues to be Bigred he will have to go before endgame. It just makes it too hard.

Why is gator swinging for daven?

wuf posted - im cool with defaulting with gizmo because he's clear villager to me and is legit as fuck player - a true natural who as good from the beginning - so that means xtr is probably a baddy

It's a bit bold to buddy up to gizmo based on xtra read, since xtra is prime mislynch bait and is going to show up as villager pretty soon.

Up to page 9. Will be back later.

[GatorJH]

Food of thought. It may be best to lynch me pretty quickly otherwise you could end up with a good portion of tomorrow falling over the weekend when people aren't as available. Advantage wolf in that scenario.

[OngBonga]

Just getting to the banana and pascal wagons. After banana claimed seer, pascal got lots of votes pretty quickly, and wuf sat back, holding his banana vote. This looks pretty bad now. He also does that weird "I figured out why banana is lying" thing after pascal got nailed. But let's not forget that banana gave us wuf as his look up, he said he was a villager.

Ok I've read up to the pascal wolf, I've also read gator's recent post at daven in its entirety, and he makes a good case. Which sucks.

I'm basically back to hoopy as my most likely villager, while any of the others can be wolves.

Oh yeah, obv bigred isn't a wolf. I wonder how I forgot he was still alive?

[GatorJH]

i'm not at all sure what to make of this, it's either wolf-gator making a huge move or villager-gator making a huge mistake. I can't figure out whether that makes it better or worse to lynch him today. I note that he doesn't even seem to look at my posts since day 2...

Outside of a "I knew Pascal was a wolf, Jyms is also a wolf and wuf is a villager" (which was your basic theme through days 1 and 2) I didn't see anything of note. Please feel free to let me know what I missed.

[GatorJH]

daven has 160 posts, 3rd behind wuf + Ong.

Would a someone new to the game who is a wolf post this much?

Unlikely.

Me thinks its not as unlikely as you think. If Ong is a wolf he deserves to win, I know I am not a wolf and, at this point don't necessarily think you are. That leaves Wuf and Daven. How confident are you that it's wuf?

[OngBonga]

Ok so gator, why isn't wuf a wolf anymore?

[OngBonga]

Seems like it's between wuf and gator to me, with daven and hoopy outside chance. Maybe it's as simple as seeing who gizmo has swung for... I mean there was a point where it was between pascal, banana and jyms, gizmo acknowledges this, and he votes jyms. So gizmo has shown at least once that he prefers to lynch a villager than wolf.

Let's isolate gizmo's posts and see if he's gone for gator, daven and wuf...

[GatorJH]

i've reached post 800. After summarising all of JV's posts as i go, and watching how his reads evolve as the game continues, I've just clicked about something that should have been really obvious. The most recent reads, theories, observations, and voting patterns given by villagers before they are killed are the most relevant. I mean, if JV thinks someone is possible wolf on day 1, but then lock villager on day 3 then obviously the day 1 read becomes redundant. So, i'll keep summarising JV's posts as i go, but won't bother posting anything about them here until i reach his end because there doesn't seem to be any point in doing so.

I am not sure how you think you are helping the village here. At the end of the day JV was a villager and had as much of an idea on who the wolves are as the rest of us. Granted I absolutely agree that he is one of the best wolf hunters we have, but it doesn't mean we should take his words as gospel. He was completely wrong about Jyms and I think he was wrong about Hoopy.

Instead of spending time there maybe you should review the posts of those alive and try to make a case for why you think they are a wolf.

You seem to do that only when someone is a prime lynch candidate for that day (see Aubrey yesterday and me today). Where is your analysis on Hoopy or Wuf? For example I would love to hear your thoughts on why you think he is a villager. What do you think of Hoopy?

[GatorJH]

Ok so gator, why isn't wuf a wolf anymore?

I'm not saying he isn't I just think Daven is a wolf more often than Wuf.

My current ranking goes Daven > Wuf >>>>> Hoopy.

I will take another look at Wuf tonight when I am not on my iPad.

[GatorJH]

Seems like it's between wuf and gator to me, with daven and hoopy outside chance. Maybe it's as simple as seeing who gizmo has swung for... I mean there was a point where it was between pascal, banana and jyms, gizmo acknowledges this, and he votes jyms. So gizmo has shown at least once that he prefers to lynch a villager than wolf.

Let's isolate gizmo's posts and see if he's gone for gator, daven and wuf...

IIRC he suspected Daven a couple of times (and vice versa) but never voted for him.

[GatorJH]

Below is a repost of my initial analysis on Wuf. I also remember that when I did my analysis on Hoopy I stated that we need to decide how hard we thought the wolves went after each other.

I still believe this was the case and if you rank them I think (without looking through stuff again) it would rank out as 1) Wuf 2) Daven and 3) Hoopy. I am not sure Three of them would so actively target each other and since Daven's seems more subtle and safe I peg him as the one.

I took a look at the first two days and on the surface wuf looks very much like a villager. On day 1 he starts out voting for pascal and votes for him later in the day, however there are a few things that DON'T make sense on day 1.

In one post (when the pascal bandwagon was gaining steam) he made a post that a race between pascal and bigred was probably best and then voted for bigred.

At that point a fulksey bandwagon takes off. Gizmo posts that he is tempted to vote for pascal, but jumps on the fulksey bandwagon. This puts fulksey in the lead by, at least 1 voted (2 including ties). Someone else votes for fulksey then Wuf then votes for pascal again.
A vote count is posted that has fulksey at 6 and pascal at 4. Three hours after his vote for pascal wuf jumps on the fulksey bandwagon with dtb closely following to close out the votes.

Day 2 coming next.

On day two wuf's first post was that he thought dtb and hoopy were wolves, makes another post that had dtb, pascal, and hoopy were wolves (he included boog in that list, but quickly rescinded that name). He then posts that boog is back on the list and dtb quickly posts after that with a vote for boog.

wuf later makes a long (short for him actually, but whatever) that explains why he thinks hoopy, dtb, boog and jyms were wolves (notice no mention of pascal this time)

dtb makes a post that he could jump on either a pascal or keith bandwagon.

A vote count was posted that had boog in the lead with 2 but with hoopy, dtb and pascal also having two.

wuf posted shortly after this on why he thought bigred was a wolf then voted for him.

Shortly after that wuf posted that the wolves were four of jyms, hoopy, bigred, gabe and boog

gizmo popped in that he thought xtr was a wolf and keith was a villager. Wuf posted that he could agree with that list (but had never mentioned xtr to this point).

Another vote count is posted with pascal in the lead with 3 followed by hoopy (3), boog (2) and jyms(2).



Now here is where the shit gets interesting. Shortly after this count is posted pascal makes a long post about how xtr and dtb have both been absent, votes for xtr but then sees xtr had posted just before him and switches to dtb - HIS FELLOW WOLF.

dtb then jumps in and votes for jyms, followed by gizmo who posts that we can "wait on pascal" and also votes for jyms

jyms bandwagon takes off and a vote count is posted that jyms is in the lead with 7 followed by pascal with 4 and hoopy with 3

shortly after this wuf rescinds jyms and votes for dtb.

dtb's bandwagon takes off in a hurry and he outs as the seer claiming wuf is a villager

Another vote count is posted with dtb at 7, jyms at 5, pascal at 3 and boog at 2

Pascal's bandwagon starts to gain some steam and wuf posted an agreement that pascal was a wolf, but didn't vote for him.

DTB posts pretty quickly after that with a vote for pascal.

Pascal's wagon hits ten and he is lynched, but THEN wuf posts to "not hit ten with pascal guys". He follows that up with a post that he thinks dtb is lying and that pascal could also be a wolf, then rescinds dtb but does not vote for pascal. This is especially strange though. If a villager thought dtb was a wolf then logically pascal is more often a villager after dtb switches to that bandwagon.


My thought on this is that the wolves (at least wuf, pascal and dtb) went into the game with a "go after each other" strategy so they could try to build some street cred. You will see that they vote for each other when there were villagers in the lead, but slightly backed off (or at least tried to) when the wolf bandwagon took off.

I REALLY believe wuf is the last wolf and that we should lynch wuf today.

[OngBonga]

Pretty bad idea today, for multiple reasons:
1. It's his first time playing, that's bad if we want him to keep playing in future games. (not really applicable to this specific game, but it's a big reason in my book, remembering my first time playing).
2. He's pretty active, so which is always a benefit to the village (even if he's a wolf, if he's active that will just give us more info to find him out later). And his activity is constructive -- he's trying to analyze the game and players.
3. There hasn't been any solid evidence against him -- so far, it's just "he's so active for a noob, he's wolfy!". I hate logic like this.
4. There are so many other low-content active players -- why is daven being singled out over those players?
5. If you really want to go for a new player -- why is daven preferred over aubrey, who has barely participated so far?

DropTheBanana -- also only has 5 posts.
1. Agrees that lower post count players should be lynched early, then lynches daven because he asks "I'm new, what do I do?" (even though that could easily have been an ice-breaking early post by a new player).
2. Switches to fulksy, agreeing that daven's activity should keep him alive.
3. Switches to boog for no reason.
4. "My boog lynch was less than serious". Claims he's being inactive because he's trying to analyze the game.
5. Defends his inactivity again. Calls Pascal's posts "odd". Then he lays out an argument against Keith, mainly regarding Keith's ideas about the long night and wolf tactics.

Honestly, Banana has almost no content in his 5 posts. His last post has some interesting comments about Keith, but definitely nothing that merits lynching Keith (it's mainly some pretty thin speculation).

Deciding between XTR and Banana is tough -- I get a wolfy vibe from XTR, but Banana isn't contributing much of anything right now. It's basically "low content" vs "wolfy low content" - so I guess I still prefer the latter (XTR).

I'm going to stick to one of the main wagons, to avoid spreading out all our votes like last game.

Pascal - he's fairly active, so I don't see a reason to kill him yet when we have much better options today.
Jyms - I reviewed his posts -- he is yet another player with almost no content. He even admits that his strategy this game is to lay low and hope to make it to endgame.
Banana - I've covered this -- basically the same as jyms.

I don't see much of a difference between jyms and banana, and I think both are far better lynch choices than pascal right now, so I'm casting my vote where I think it will do the most work to get one of these inactives to step up and start posting.

lynch jyms

I have Keith as the most likely villager, so I'm willing to go along with his theories. I haven't seen wuf refute much of Keith's monster post from earlier, which was why I was holding off.

lynch wuf

After skimming his posts, I think Hoopy is a villager. Early on day 2, he was pushing for a DTB vs. JV wagon, his votes were mainly on pascal and DTB during that day, and pushed for a DTB lynch at the end of Day 3. I just can't see a wolf consistently voting against his fellow wolves.

OK, here's a summary of Gator's activity in the first 3 days.

Day 1 -- he lynches daven, jyms, and rong, and fulksy. He also felt that bigred was suspicious.

Day 2 -- Says that wuf tops his wolf list, but then lynches hoopy. He no longer likes a jyms lynch, lynched DTB, but then didn't go off the wagon after it derailed (but he continued to post in the thread).

Day 3 -- "we definitely should NOT lynch DTB today" (post 579). He suspects bikes, audrey, bigred, wuf, jyms. Keith is the only person so far that he mentions as a probable villager. Lynches jyms, then aubrey, then volunteers himself, but then 13 minutes later lynches bigred. When confronted with a DTB vs. wuf wagon, he lynches wuf, then bails out to bigred to end the day.


I don't like how scattered his accusations are. He's accused or lynched almost everyone in the villager (except boog and keith).

I also think that keeping his vote on DTB on day 2 is suspicious, because he was still around in the thread but didn't want to switch over to Pascal, another wolf.

He's getting a fair amount of villager cred because he volunteered as a lynch target, but only 13 minutes after making that offer he goes after bigred. That doesn't strike me as very sincere.

For now: lynch gator

Ok here's a bunch of gizmo's posts.

In the past, I've seen TLR own the shit out of gizmo wolf by noticing that gizmo was not directly quoting his buddies. I would imagine that inspired giz to make sure he did in the future, but from these posts it seems to me that gizmo does not like to kill fellow wolves. He's dodged hoopy and daven, but not gator and wuf. GAAAAAH this is doing my nut now.

I'm going for a smoke. I'm thinking the opposite of what I was earlier... lynch hoopy and daven... jesus how has it come to that?

[GatorJH]

That does suck as I really think it is between Wuf and Daven. I too will look at Gizmo tonight.

Btw, I have Hoopy as a villager mostly because of the "if the village lynches Aubrey myself and Gator the next three nights we win" plus the statement at the beginning of the day that he should be lynched. He could be tagging along with my line knowing I would be first but it just seems sincere to me. I have been wrong in these before though.

[OngBonga]

We need wuf to show his ugly face again. Here's the thing with wuf... he's started off today with a very quick vote for hoopy... does he stick his neck out that fast if he's wolf? I doubt it. Wolf would do much better to sit back and wait to see what direction the villagers take. So unless wuf has taken this line because he thinks someone is going to say "doesn't look very wolfy to me", even though there's a good chance of someone like me saying "WOLFY"... seems a stretch.

Interestingly, wolfy in small has a spell error red line underneath, but not if I type WOLFY in caps. Thought I'd share that interesting piece of information.

[GatorJH]

good point about wuf.

Gah, life is going to suck for you tomorrow.

wolfy and WOLFY both have red underlines for me.

[daven]

@ ong - you say you are pretty sure this is gator wolf immediately after i post that it could also be gator villager making a huge mistake. Thing is that i can't tell which of these it is based on today's posts. He seems to be making big leaps based on weird logic, and also mis-representing some of what has happened. I was obviously happy to keep the day going until gator had a chance to post his thoughts (e.g. my posts 1941, 1951) even after he had started going after me because i thought his wolf hunting would help the village a lot - even though Wuf wanted to lynch him straight away. It seems that it has instead clouded the waters substantially.

@ gator suggesting that i review the posts of those alive to try and figure out who is wolf rather than wasting time looking at JV's posts - did you see my posts immediately following the one about JV that you quoted (1953, 1954, 1955)? Or did you ignore these because they don't fit the story you are constructing? I had been going through looking at the posts of Jackvance (mostly because he was good enough to find gizmo), Hoopy, Wufwugy, and yourself (looking for the last wolf) - while pretty much just skimminng those from Ong because i thought (and still do) that he's villager.

re your post 1965, I'll try to remember what was going on and take a look at the posts you quoted.

[daven]

re gator's post 1965 - commentary on me day 1

You say i saw two minor posts from pascal and thought they looked wolfy. At that stage i had noted that he had said he wouldn't have time to read rilla's story for quite a while, but then posted in the thread in a way that suggested he had been lurking = a contradication which i thought was quite telling. This made him one possible wolf in my eyes

You complain that i also identified boog as a possible wolf.

Why did you only quote this part of post 49:

the boog-wuf interplay at the start got me suspicious but i doubt it means anything at all

but not the paragraph that preceded it, which is where my suspicion of Boog came from? it seems that you are starting from a premise that i am a wolf and then ignoring anything that doesn't fit the story you are trying to create....

boog - if he suggests lynching low posters and then doesn't post again then i'm confused. Wolfy? I agree with him that we should make life hard for people who don't post much. It's going to be pretty hard to get reads on someone who doesn't ever post.

re holding my vote at the start, it's my first game and i admit that i was initially hesitant to bold anyone. Not really much more i can say about that.

A vote count is then posted that shows jyms with 4, fulksey with 3 and pascal with 2.

With pascal safely behind Daven now throws out a vote for him

note that my vote suddenly made Pascal's position very unsafe.

Also note that my vote for Pascal (124) suggesting an inacitve vs a likely wolf was a repetition of an idea i had posted earlier (101)

It seems that we generate more useful info if we run wagons on an inactive vs an active player rather than on two inactive players. Or is there too much risk of taking out an active villager?

[daven]

you comment that i went silent after voting for Pascal. I had found and voted for my most likely wolf, i had suggested Pascal vs inactive bandwagons and this was happening. I didn't have anything more to add.

[OngBonga]

I thought gator was wolf because if he is wolf, I expected him to come out today and make a play. But then again, would a wolf gator really change his position substantially from wuf (who we might have lynched today) to daven (who everyone thinks is a villager)? This seems more sincere than it did at first glance, because he's already at risk today just because it's gator at endgame, and he puts his neck on the block tomorrow if he's wrong.

Gator is a nightmare to read, and trying to second guess how villager gator and wolf gator approach this endgame is an act of futility.

However, gizmo is not a nightmare to read, not to the same degree. Giz is still learning and makes mistakes. It is not easy being wolf, it's not easy to make the right move every time. We can see in the posts I link above that he does not like to kill his buddies when there are better options for him. So why did he lunge at gator? Why did he protect you vs aubrey? This is why my position has changed over the course of this day.

[GatorJH]

Ong,
1953 = Ong is a villager. DUH!!
1954 = a recap of mine and hoopy's posts but with no analysis from you on what they may mean
1955 = a recap of wuf, but in this case you say they make him look like a villager.

Again, this is consistent with your play the entire game. Tell us what YOU think about myself and Hoopy, don't just paste a summary of the posts.

[GatorJH]

post above should have been to Daven, not Ong.

[daven]

re day 2

At this point I had barely been active, yet am not mentioned at all.

you made about 10 posts on day 1, the others had made even fewer (<5 even?)

Also, not sure what a TLR lynch has to do with Pascal,

TLR had raised suspicions about both hoopy and pascal on the first day

then you talk about me 'hedging'
i had a vote on. I wanted feedback on whether it was better for the village that i left my vote on the player i thought was most likely wolf vs having no vote. Regarding the timing of my posts, they were simply the timing of when i was hitting the road to go and play golf and get drunk and etc

this was at 7:14pm (Thread time)

forgot to mention earlier that i'll be afk for about 30hrs - going away for a stag party. Leaving in about 3hrs. Just telling y'all now cos otherwise i can imagine the lot of yas going on weird 'daven is inactive' tangents.

I just skimmed over the last few pages and I'm about to do a more thorough read through, there are heaps of new posts but nothing really interesting stands out at first glance on the voting front. I'm more and more zoning in on Pascal/Jyms/Hoopy. There still seem to be a bunch of inactives, but it seems that there is a theme to leave inactives alone? i don't like it - we get no info from inactives and it suggests to me that there are at least some wolves hiding that way.

and this was at 9:46pm (thread time)

ok, i'm outa here. Leaving my vote as it is. I'll be back just over a day from now.

[daven]

Again, this is consistent with your play the entire game. Tell us what YOU think about myself and Hoopy, don't just paste a summary of the posts.

bold added by me
what? in or around those posts i state thta I THINK that you and Hoopy are most likely wolves. In post 1965 you criticise my posts that lock in on jyms - did you note that these weren't post summaries? did you not note that i include interpretation of posts and actions where i think that they are telling (e.g. the weird pascal vote dtb thing where you found only one conclusion and i found three that were possible?)

[Hoopy]

Me thinks its not as unlikely as you think. If Ong is a wolf he deserves to win, I know I am not a wolf and, at this point don't necessarily think you are. That leaves Wuf and Daven. How confident are you that it's wuf?

I don't think wuf is a wolf because of the way gizmo voted for and kept his vote on wuf during day 3 (or the day DTB got gat). It would mean one wolf was trying to get the remaining hidden one lynched (it was close).

Also the argument with Ong on day 4 which is hard to fake.

[daven]

I thought gator was wolf because if he is wolf, I expected him to come out today and make a play. But then again, would a wolf gator really change his position substantially from wuf (who we might have lynched today) to daven (who everyone thinks is a villager)? This seems more sincere than it did at first glance, because he's already at risk today just because it's gator at endgame, and he puts his neck on the block tomorrow if he's wrong.

that's what i'm struggling with too, see my post 1936

I'm finding Gator really hard to read. Would he really try and get me lynched if he was a wolf? it seems a bit unlikely as he could probably go after easier lynch targets (I'm thinking Hoopy or Wuf here).
My level zero response is that his desire to lynch me makes it more likely that he is a villager.

[daven]

I'm going have some food, drink some coffee, cut some wood, and then continue my readthrough from where i got to last time (post 800). I still need to figure out who out of [Gator/Hoopy/Wufwugy] is the last wolf. Hopefully i'll find something that makes it all obvious. I know gator doesn't seem to like it, but i will also be looking pretty closely at the posts that Jackvance made to see if there is any wolf-hunting gold to be found.

[Hoopy]

Those gizmo posts are interesting, but kind of worrying at the same time.

[daven]

Let's isolate gizmo's posts and see if he's gone for gator, daven and wuf...

i'll be taking a close look at gizmo's and dtb's posts too. DTB's posts after he fake outs are perhaps redundant though cos he would probably be very careful from that point onwards. What i said about early posts from known villagers not really being that valuable because their reads evolve DOES NOT apply to wolves. Wolves know who is villager/wolf from the outset, so all of their posts are relevant. Not sure about Pascal's posts though. I said early on that he seemed like a confused wolf, and this stands....

[GatorJH]

re day 2

you made about 10 posts on day 1, the others had made even fewer (<5 even?)

This is why I want you trying to defend yourself. In the quote I referenced you mentioned four inactives: Bigred, DTB, bikes and JV.

Let's look at some Day 1 post counts (post numbers are listed below).

Gator - 63, 93, 103, 105, 114, 115, 116, 121, 159, 214
Bigred - 120, 125, 127, 128, 168, 172, 188, 196, 198, 200, 204
Bikes - 20, 26, 58, 59, 176, 177, 217
DTB - 57, 216
JV - 61, 153, 169, 185
Gizmo - 24, 82, 83, 130, 134, 141, 143, 178, 183
XTR - 62, 85, 167, 179

I may have missed one or two overall, but the above list is pretty accurate.

See, here's the problem with wolves. They aren't REALLY reviewing the thread in many cases, just making posts based on "feel". Unfortunately this leads to mistakes on their part. In your case my best guess is that you wanted to put heat on a fellow wolf (DTB) so you put him on the list and went with three others that you felt were inactive. The REALITY though is that you messed up.

Bigred actually has 11 posts on day one. More than anyone else in the above list, including Gizmo. XTR had just as few posts as JV yet he is nowhere in your list.

[Hoopy]

Originally Posted by JKDS
Final Vote Count 3.04

Boog(1): DTB,
Rong(1):, ong
Wufwugy(4): Keith, JV, Boog , ng
Bigred(2):, Gator, daven
DTB(6): wufwugy, bikes, hoopy, Aubrey, jyms, rong

Notvoting:,bigred

Deadline has been reached! With 6 votes, DTB has been lynched through deadline!

The wolves would not want DTB dead on day 3 right? Keeping up the confusion for another night and getting a villager is better.

If wuf were a wolf then trying to get him lynched on day 3 makes little sense, once DTB goes it would be gizmo vs ~10 villagers. Not good.

So in my mind wuf is a villager, I also think I get some villager points for pushing the village towards DTB.

[daven]

This is why I want you trying to defend yourself. In the quote I referenced you mentioned four inactives: Bigred, DTB, bikes and JV.

Let's look at some Day 1 post counts (post numbers are listed below).

Gator - 63, 93, 103, 105, 114, 115, 116, 121, 159, 214
Bigred - 120, 125, 127, 128, 168, 172, 188, 196, 198, 200, 204
Bikes - 20, 26, 58, 59, 176, 177, 217
DTB - 57, 216
JV - 61, 153, 169, 185
Gizmo - 24, 82, 83, 130, 134, 141, 143, 178, 183
XTR - 62, 85, 167, 179

I may have missed one or two overall, but the above list is pretty accurate.

See, here's the problem with wolves. They aren't REALLY reviewing the thread in many cases, just making posts based on "feel". Unfortunately this leads to mistakes on their part. In your case my best guess is that you wanted to put heat on a fellow wolf (DTB) so you put him on the list and went with three others that you felt were inactive. The REALITY though is that you messed up.

Bigred actually has 11 posts on day one. More than anyone else in the above list, including Gizmo. XTR had just as few posts as JV yet he is nowhere in your list.

cheers for providing the post references

re bigred, note my comment (which you quoted) where i state that posters who are posting but provide no content are effectively inactive.

Quote:
Originally Posted by daven View Post
any lists of inactive posters should include posters who are providing no content in support of their lynches. Reading though the thread it seems like there are four inactives = Bigred, Dropthebanana, Bikes, Jackvance


so, based on that i got three of the four lowest posters (dtb, jv, bikes) and a player who provided no content = bigred. XTR had posted that his company blocks ftr and had provided some content in his posts, but you're right, it was limited. Was it more than provided by DTB/JV/Bikes? i;ll have to read their respective posts to check. Good chance that it was, in which case i hit the most inactive four (based on content and post frequency). I didn't go through and tally posts, so, yep, it is based on my "feel". And that feel was accurate, mainly because I HAVE been reading the thread thoroughly.

[GatorJH]

That's interesting. Can you be specific about Bigred's lack of content for day 1? I just went through his posts and they don't seem bad at all.

[daven]

That's interesting. Can you be specific about Bigred's lack of content for day 1? I just went through his posts and they don't seem bad at all.

hang on, i'll go back and look at them. I haven't been going back and reviewing earlier stuff much because i'm trying to finish my readthrough. I've just reached the end of day 3 and i've figured out how JV found gizmo, which i'm pretty proud of, but probably isn't relevant to where we're at now.

[daven]

in return, can you address the other points i made. e.g. why you only quoted part of my post relating to boog, and not the other.

[daven]

i like that bigred was the first to post re all of my early references to kill bill (post 127 and uma thurman)

[daven]

That's interesting. Can you be specific about Bigred's lack of content for day 1? I just went through his posts and they don't seem bad at all.

i've quoted all of bigred's day 1 posts below. Were we reading the same posts?!?!?

Awww snap, we started! Did not realize this. Going to read through thread but a big middle finger goes to TJ since I saw he bolded me.

I'm letting you think we're not on to you so you reveal the rest of the wolves!

Oh, my other middle finger to TJ with a lynch jymz

After reading posts

@ong, d1 is most def drivel.

What's with the theme? When does Uma Thurman show up and chop our heads off?

BTW, not sure what to think of this D0zer player...sure is posting a lot

Agreed. lynch dozer . Dude be tripping

An active noob who is acting rather dodgy

Based on the above posts and te clear facts, a gator lynch is the clear choice. Disagreements implies wolfiness and communism.

I laughed

I don't get emailed when receiving a pm...

You seem to know a lot about PMs, wolf...

Can't fault people for wanting to win...

[daven]

ok, here are some references etc to posts from hoopy. I think that it's important to note that he views gizmo as 'likely villager' at this stage. Also very relevant that his move to lynch Aubrey seems to be shadowing rather than based on any sound reasoning.

hoopy - 897 - rescinds JV, had voted without thinking much
903 - reviews gizmo's posts,

Wanted to do a read through of gizmo's posts (19 total), because I can't remember any of them.

......

Conclusion : Tough to say, probably leans villager based on analysis posts.

then 906 - votes to lynch aubrey, no reasoning provided. This is a few posts after JV suggests lynching her.
944 - rescinds Aubrey, 'seems every lynch is a bad idea'
977 - lynch bigred, based on nothing better to go on
1008 - don't lynch wuf, lets bandwagon two players. Lynch bigred or bikes.

[daven]

The wolves would not want DTB dead on day 3 right? Keeping up the confusion for another night and getting a villager is better.

If wuf were a wolf then trying to get him lynched on day 3 makes little sense, once DTB goes it would be gizmo vs ~10 villagers. Not good.

So in my mind wuf is a villager, I also think I get some villager points for pushing the village towards DTB.

i'm not sure what we can tell from these votes. Gator nails it in post 843, that we shouldn't be voting for dtb cos of seer risk, and we shouldn't be voting for his claims (boog/wuf) either. You reiterate this in post 899 (after JV outs as vig) where you state that we shouldn't touch any of DTB/Boog/Wuf/JV.

[daven]

@ gator, read my post 867
i identify ong as more likely wolf than jv, and clarify later (872) that neither are likely wolf. I know that you'll hate that i got shit like this right, but i thought i should point it out.
note that this is BEFORE JV outs as vig (877)

[daven]

i have a bunch of notes on wuf, on gizmo's posts, and on JV's posts. I'll refrain from posting them without analysis, and wait instead until i get further through the thread.

Gizmo's vote for wuf (1013) and followup posts (e.g. 1023) are noteworthy though.
when he made that vote the votecounts (copied from wuf's count a few posts earlier) looked like:
dtb = 1
bigred = 3
rong = 2
wuf = 3
boog = 1
jv = 2

[daven]

i have a bunch of notes on wuf, on gizmo's posts, and on JV's posts. I'll refrain from posting them without analysis, and wait instead until i get further through the thread.

i'm about to work for a few hours, so this will be after that

[Hoopy]

Pretty bad idea today, for multiple reasons:
1. It's his first time playing, that's bad if we want him to keep playing in future games. (not really applicable to this specific game, but it's a big reason in my book, remembering my first time playing).
2. He's pretty active, so which is always a benefit to the village (even if he's a wolf, if he's active that will just give us more info to find him out later). And his activity is constructive -- he's trying to analyze the game and players.
3. There hasn't been any solid evidence against him -- so far, it's just "he's so active for a noob, he's wolfy!". I hate logic like this.
4. There are so many other low-content active players -- why is daven being singled out over those players?
5. If you really want to go for a new player -- why is daven preferred over aubrey, who has barely participated so far?

Thinking about it some more, daven had 3-4 votes at this point. But there were 2 inactives who were more likely to get lynched that day. So I don't think a wolf would defend a fellow wolf this obviously here, because if one dies later then the village starts to get ideas about the other one, which isn't good.

[wufwugy]

Gator is a wolf because

1) He doesn't even have an argument for Daven being a wolf. Seriously, go back over it. There is no argument there. Gator doesn't believe it and it's really just a giant contrivance.

2) He completely abandoned going after me. He even said he "REALLY" thinks I'm the last wolf, but that gained no traction so he let it go. He had no reason to change his mind, especially since his "new reason" where he goes after Daven is devoid of a good argument. As a wolf, he has to abandon attacking me if it doesn't catch on hard because in a Wuf vs Gator battle, he loses and he knows it. I may be no good at many aspects of this game, but I excel at getting other people lynched, especially those who don't come correct. He's played with me enough to know this. Hell, he remembers the game when I was on the chopping block but then I went bonkers with a super elaborate wolf theory and got Gator lynched on like Day 2 instead.

If he was a villager and thought I was a wolf, he wouldn't give up on attacking me

3) He woke the fuck up. Every living person has done the same thing the entire game, except Gator. He pulled the wolfiest move there ever was -- which is also a highly Gatoresque move -- in suddenly being so active in the endgame. There are countless examples of wolves doing this


I'd be open to looking at Daven like Gator wants us to, but I need an actual argument. Gator hasn't provided anything sensible against Daven, he has simply convinced us that he has

The game is over, the village has won, Gator is the final answer

[OngBonga]

Gator hasn't provided anything sensible against Daven, he has simply convinced us that he has

He hasn't convinced me of anything. It was going through gizmo's posts that swung me. Gizmo has totally avoided pushing daven, he even goes as far as defending him when he was picking up votes.

Village does not have this won wuf, not yet. I see three people who all could be potential wolf, and our dead vig died shouting the name of the other person amongst us. We would have this locked if people hadn't have recklessly lynched jyms and boog. Those lynches were so bad.

[wufwugy]

Well, you might be right. I missed those when scanning the new posts because I usually ignore quoted text. It is strange how Gizmo doesn't seem to go after other wolves and protects them instead. Maybe we should look at his last game he won as wolf. That can't provide too much info though since he was alone for most of it though

Why did JV think Gator was such a villager? Or did he not explain just like with Hoopy?

[wufwugy]

It's strange that you think DTB bolding Daven in his first post was very villager, yet I think it was very wolfy. I really see that as something DTB would do to Daven if they're both wolves. That does strike me as one wolf seeing another nub wolf being super active and calling him out on it as a hedge. Why else would that be DTB's first post?

[OngBonga]

Bear in mind, last time banana was a wolf, he coasted to a perfect victory without bolding a fellow wolf until the last day. Would he try that again? Or would he take note of boog's tactic last game where he threw me under the bus?

[wufwugy]

Gizmo's activity in the Werewolves vs Vampires II (where the wolves were Gizmo JV JustinSKS and turncoat wolf Stax which Gizmo figured out somewhat early) is to defend nubs at first, but after JustinSKS never showed up, he bolds him

He made a post where he says basically that previous wolf team he was on tried going after each other and it backfired

Curiously, he also questioned why Ong wasn't defending himself to others' accusations, much like he said about me this game.

He defends Stax at a point where I think he figures Stax is the turncoat wolf

By now, he's the last wolf left, so not much else to say


Gonna find the other game he was wolf in now. So far in WvsV game, Gizmo never went after a fellow wolf at all, other than killing off JustinSKS when he never showed up. I don't think that's relevant though because it was easily the right move since he was obv weak player and gonna die early.


Gator, can you please improve your argument against Daven? At this point it doesn't look like much to me, but if you're right, you should be able to give some great points for why

[wufwugy]

Bear in mind, last time banana was a wolf, he coasted to a perfect victory without bolding a fellow wolf until the last day. Would he try that again? Or would he take note of boog's tactic last game where he threw me under the bus?

There's another DTB game where he was a wolf and they won. It was before your time, I think it was the one after the original WvsV game. The team was something like DTB TLR Philly Roid Rage or Dranger and somebody else. I think Bigred modded it. It was the one with the Santa Claws. Maybe you should take a look DTB in it. I will later

[GatorJH]

in return, can you address the other points i made. e.g. why you only quoted part of my post relating to boog, and not the other.

I was more referencing your comment about Pascal making soulreads then you apparently making a couple of them. I am still not sure that helps your case though as it had only been about 6 hours since his last post.

[GatorJH]

@ gator, read my post 867
i identify ong as more likely wolf than jv, and clarify later (872) that neither are likely wolf. I know that you'll hate that i got shit like this right, but i thought i should point it out.
note that this is BEFORE JV outs as vig (877)

If you are the final wolf wouldn't this be pretty easy to call?

[GatorJH]

The game is over, the village has won, Gator is the final answer

I don't EVER want to hear how awesome you are after this game when I show up as a villager.

[GatorJH]

Gator, can you please improve your argument against Daven? At this point it doesn't look like much to me, but if you're right, you should be able to give some great points for why

I have already done that, but will reiterate. I think the whole Pascal/DTB voting trend is a HUGE tell in how most of the wolves were playing this game (I think I even mentioned minus Gizmo but will have to try and find that post to verify). With that theory in mind I reviewed yours, hoopy's and Daven's posts the first two days to see if I could find instances where one of you three went after a wolf but in a non-dangerous way.

What I found was that Hoopy went after Pascal the hardest and beyond what I would think that strategy calls for so therefore I think he is a villager.

You went after Pascal less than Hoopy so I defaulted to you being the final wolf, however when I reviewed Daven the signs were ALL over the place, imo, that showed him going after Pascal but not too hard. He gets all of his cred because he left when there was no danger for Pascal being lynched, but then it went terribly bad and he ended up being lynched. I tried showing how he made a couple of posts that would allow him to change his vote, but believe they thought it was ok to leave it.

I also think his reasoning for locking onto Pascal is SUPER weak and that also plays into the theory.

I agree that it isn't the strongest argument, however by this time in the game the wolf is, in a lot of cases, the one who could be found a villager and a wolf.

I hope this helps.

[wufwugy]

Gizmo was wolf in WW Blank game, but it was weird as fuck and I don't remember too much even after going over it.

It's the one Gizmo thinks they went after each other and lost because of it. I'm not sure why but probably because JKDS and Boog were wolves and like bolding each other. On the last day, which they somehow lost due to some kind of technicality or something, Gizmo was saying stuff about JKDS and Hoopy being a possible wolf, but that's it

I don't think he bolded a wolf the entire game

[Hoopy]

Well, you might be right. I missed those when scanning the new posts because I usually ignore quoted text. It is strange how Gizmo doesn't seem to go after other wolves and protects them instead. Maybe we should look at his last game he won as wolf. That can't provide too much info though since he was alone for most of it though

Why did JV think Gator was such a villager? Or did he not explain just like with Hoopy?

He didn't explain why.

I don't EVER want to hear how awesome you are after this game when I show up as a villager.

I'd laugh if this happened but my head would already have exploded from being leveled completely.