Drug smugglers and Feds gameplay thread

[aubreymcfate]

hey. ok, so... to address the h8az first. i'll address the specific points made by a few posters in a moment, but regarding my overall behavior, the explanation is really simple. the only reason it seemed like i was posting less/wolf-hunting less was because i went out tuesday night. monday was literally the first day so everyone was kind of bullshitting then, so unless anyone thinks i did something remarkably wolfy for the first day of gameplay, i don't feel it's necessary for me to focus on that. the second day, which was when shit started actually getting real, i was at work for the first half (still got posting in but, you know, it's harder to air your thoughts freely when you're multitasking) and then i was out for the rest of the day/night.

it's incredibly normal for me to be a first day fencesitter, kind of trying to get a feel for everything, observing, etc. me being out the other evening didn't didn't help because that's normally the time i'm able to post without abandon, since i'm home. needless to say i'm a little frustrated both because i was targeted while i was out, AND that i was out in the first place while a lot was going on and missed out.

specific claims -

Hoopy:

"Check out her posts, shorter thannormal, less wolf hunting, says she has a lock villager read on ImSavy (how?)."

i addressed the quality of my posts above but again, i post better when i'm home, but i wasn't home on day 2 when stuff actually started happening. as for "imsavy," perhaps "lock villager" was the wrong way to put it since that implies he's done something that removes all doubt from him. what i meant was so far (which I actually even said when i called him that, check post 201) he seems completely villager to me. if you look at post 238, you can see further thought process for this.

gabe -
"Aubrey was over the top defending eugmac ("dude seriously you tripping?") which might be because she knew eugmac as not a fed

also some people just make up excuses when they can't think of what to type as a wolf"

if you knew me in person you wouldn't think that was over the top... i honestly was amused by your reasoning, not in a judgmental bitchy way (like i'm one to talk) and it was more of a playful jab. i should probably temper my hyperbolic tendencies here.

and "make up excuses"? what excuses?


Rilla, I think my general explanation above responds to your doubts about me.


my boss just got in and wants to talk at me so i'm going to post this now, and post as soon as i can with further thoughts.

[aubreymcfate]

when i say day 2 above i mean like, literally the second day of the week.

[JKDS]

I honestly forgot they had a blocker, I just woke up

[NightGizmo]

I think all conversation about the angel's powers should stop now. The rest of the village doesn't need to know what the angel's powers are, they need to wolf-hunt. Talking about it only helps the wolves, because it's information they do not have that can hurt them.

[GatorJH]

I agree, but that said, we can't have a villager modkilled after we lynch someone else as far as I believe. IF he's not here by the end of the day 2 phase, we may need to switch votes to pascal if we haven't got a sure thing. Losing two villagers will erase the angels run good last night.

This exactly!!! Pretty busy at work today but am hoping to find some time to review Day 1. From what I remember though Gizmo seemed to stick out the most for me.

Also Aubrey's defense post at the end of the day was weird so combine that with suspicion from others and she is flying up my radar.

Last game Wuf tried to tone it down on day 1, but that didn't last long and by day 2 the mega posts were back. Not sure if he is just trying to balance his range, but I would like to see more analysis from him (it helped me find Rong at the end of the game last time).

Jyms doesn't look as wolfish to me this game as he did in the past (when he was a villager) so naturally I am wondering if that means he is a wolf this time (of course this FPS thinking is usually wrong with me so meh).

Rilla seems villager to me and so does Gabe as I don't think he would push that hard for a lynch on day 1 if he were a wolf.

[Keith]

It cpuld also be because of my attack on rilla or jyms, but meh. I think its most likely savy.

kinda interesting you say it could be because of jyms. Note how he names the exact three people that i said I'd personally protect whereas i and others could have thrown in a couple more names like rilla,jkds and bikes. ( ok i wouldn't have done bikes but others might). he mentioned those names twice as well.I wana rescind wuf and lynch Jyms now cos i think he fucked up above and now scrambling to explain himself .

JKDS outting is interesting but not sure how it now helps in possibly lynching gabe to find out his role now that a revived villager gabe couldn't be protected by the angel. JKDS has to be either a wolf fake outing or the angel , since the wolves now know who the angel protected

[NightGizmo]

So, I'm trying to figure out if/why JKDS would fake out as the angel if he's a wolf. Here's what I can come up with. NOTE: this is not an argument for why JKDS is a wolf, I'm just considering that option.

Reasons for:

1. Hope to draw out the real angel.
2. Gain villager cred and lead the village lynches astray.
3. Assuming the real angel stays alive, the village might avoid lynching JKDS because there's a change he's the angel.

Reasons against:

1. It puts a spotlight on him, which wolves tend to avoid.
2. (re #3 above) It could backfire and the village could lynch/revive him to verify his claim.


Eh, I'm more inclined to believe him, it doesn't seem like a very good move for a wolf. But I've seen JKDS pull stranger moves (claiming to be a made up, unannounted special mid-game, for instance), so I can't fully believe that JKDS is the angel.

[MadMojoMonkey]

I am the Angel. My ability only has a single shot, and its gone now. So I'm just a regular villager now. I saved myself

Which post(s) made you think you had an indication of how the (unnamed) feds were leaning?

Why did you decide to keep this assessment to yourself?
-If the read was so thin that you couldn't share it, then why was the read strong enough to use a 1-time power?

What made you think this wasn't very probably a wasted use of your power, ultimately weakening the village?

(If it was not a luckbox that this move actually thwarted the feds, then it was very pro. )

[jyms]

Fake outing on day 2 wouldn't do very much to help him since we will get into when does he die scenarios.

@ keith, fuck that scrambling, I'm just trying to figure shit out out loud. I didn't spend a lot of time defending my last bandwagon and I won't start now. I din't name rilla because I have him on my list of possible wolves. as for bikes he never put much heat out there, he lynched Eug, so why would he need protection?

[NightGizmo]

lynch MadMojoMonkey

I just read through his posts and there are only 2 that have any real content. The rest are fluff, smileys, asking about vote counts/rescinds, and mimicing other players.

His 2 posts with any content:

#222 - He says that JKDS and jyms "feel funny", and then Ong calls him out for not having the experience playing with them to have any basis for making that comment.

#323 - While it's still close between eugmac and daven, he switches to eugmac. This is probably his best post, because he started to explain his thought process, although he didn't provide any concrete evidence or specifics.

He's clearly watching the thread, because he keeps popping in with fluff -- in fact, he's paying very close attention, because he has made a couple posts asking about bad vote counts or missed rescinds. So why isn't he posting more real content/analysis?

His vote for eugmac also came at a time that helped daven, because they were the two main wagons. If MMM flips wolf, we'd have to take a closer look at daven.

[bikes]

all this is useful info for the wolves to have and you think that it makes you seem a villager? I certainly wouldn't protect myself first night , since i'm highly unlikely to be eaten first night and protecting some of the likely first night targets like gabe,JV or gator would be far more logical.I can't help thinking that lynching Gabe may well be a decent plan and if he's asked this as a wolf we bag a wolf and if he asked as a villager we can always revive him. Reviver has to work tonight or tomorrow, so if we sort his role out now, if he's villager at least we have a known villager that the wolves will either have to target or flip with the angel as to whether he is protecting gabe.
Jyms post is also interesting in wanting the angel to out himself if he protectyed himself. The wolves don't know if it was angel protecting themselves or angel saving someone else. And you want to hand them that info for free?

read teh rules!

[bikes]

lynch aubrey

super intresting you put forth such a long ass defense so early in a day when theres only like 2 votes against you. also in gabe we trust.

[jackvance]

Some quick thoughts. The eugmac train was a bit weird, he didn't look that wolfy to me. A bit too erratic for a wolf, much better explained by the stress he is under from his upcoming marriage. Although I can somewhat understand from people who didn't see him play last time to mistake his posts for wolfy. And I can't imagine Gabe put this whole thing up as a wolf level, he most likely really believed it (and so it cost him $100).

JKDS, a bit weird, he's like the last person I'd want to hear an outing from. But fact is we binked an angel save, he's just one of the last people I'd have expected to be targetted. At the same time, there's no way I can see him do this as a wolf fake outing (we also know there is no chance of something being hidden from so there can't even be a very subtle reason), so most likely he is in fact the angel.

Wuf, and this I find very interesting, while his general theories so far sounded like crock to me, there have been small observations he made that really echoed my own thinking. It's rare for me to notice this, and when it did in the past it's never been this early, but so far whenever I noticed this with someone in all the past games I have played, they have always been a villager. So I'm putting him in camp villager.


Also, to say something out loud a lot of people are probably thinking but not voicing, I have some wolfy tells, but they're very much in the sense of 'but could be a special too'. So I'm not gonna go into those for obvious reasons, will have to do some more thinking (bad hangover atm) and see some more posts to get into spotting wolves. It looks like we are nicely on track because the biggest threat imo in this game is the wolfes killing specials early.

[Hoopy]

I am the Angel. My ability only has a single shot, and its gone now. So I'm just a regular villager now. I saved myself, and am convinced now that imsavy is a wolf. Why else was I targetted?

You were almost certain the wolves would go for you then?

[Keith]

read teh rules!

what are you referring to ?

[Hoopy]

we know the Feds either blocked the seer or knows what the receiver knows

We can't be sure they used a power last night.

[Hoopy]

I don't like that gabe encouraged the angel to out. It was possible that angel protected someone else or had multiple protects left.

Anyway, I've thought about it a bit and JKDS is pretty much always the angel here, why would a wolf fake out?

[jackvance]

lynch bikes

I'll have to be going after people that try to hide behind the skirts of others, because that's such an easy way to shift responsibility. I saw Hoopy and Gator do it too. But bikes stands out atm because I don't really know how he plays and I'm suspicious because he showed up late and said he forgot. I mean he got a PM about the game no?

Also day 2 is strangely uneventful, not what I expected after the turmoil of day 1.

[jackvance]

That last sentence is more of a general observation, not related to the rest I said.

[bikes]

The angel contemplated the use of that card. He could only call that favour in once, but was glad his suspicions had been correct and the favour wasn't wasted.

Day 1: eugmac, a regular gang member, lynched by the village.
Night 1: wolves thwarted by angel

says once

[Keith]

from RONG's post immediately before the one you got your knickers in a twist about

Also, two clarifications.

.............

The angel can protect any player he chooses, himself being an option, and he can choose a different player or the same player on any night. That player is protected for one night only, only one player can be protected per night. There is a limit on how many times the power can be used.

why would he be able to protect a different player if it was a one shot deal. maybe rong was disguising the fact that it was a oneshot deal to leave the wolves with the same info that the village had.Butthat post made it quite clear that at that time it was possible for the angel still to protect more people. JKDS only outed himself and confirmed that it was a one shot deal after I made that post . Am i supposed to be clairvoyant and predict that JKDS was going to do that with the info that the MOD had just posted. So why be such a dickhead about it ?

[aubreymcfate]

"It's useful to have people who stir things up, the only problem is when two of them start attacking each other and throwing out walls of text distracting the village."

this is a really good point by Hoopy, which i believe he said in response to wuf and ong going at it a bit.

wuf is laying lower this game, which i know he was planning on doing anyway, but it would be especially convenient if he is a wolf. i don't find it believable that a villager wuf would target ong, and i find it a little less believable that a wolf wuf would target villager ong. but if they are both wolves, well then, hoopy's comment here is something to think about. a wuf/ong duo provides a lot of fodder for snippy and distracting arguments.

also, and i didn't think this before because it's standing out to me now in light of what i just wrote about ong and wuf - look at post 100 by wuf. if ong/wuf are indeed wolves, it's easy to see how they manipulated that situation to their advantage.

i think jkds's outing is genuine because why would you do a fake outing when the reviver power is still in use? i can't think of any wolfy advantage for this at the moment.

gabe targeted eugmac strongly (post 250 - "i feel pretty strongly") and then he made post 258.

now, while i can understand why hoopy and gabe raised an eyebrow at me (hence me going through the effort to dispel their suspicion - plus i was gone during prime hours of the game, so i felt i owed it to you guys), the fact that gabe went just as strongly for eugmac, if not stronger (and come on, with not that great reasoning) is putting him on my radar.

lol @ bikes lynching eug just because gabe did. clearly gabe is infallible.. oh wait.

speaking of gabe's #1 fan - he was like 200 posts late to the game because he "forgot"? ok, maybe… but then one of the very first things he says is that gabe is not a good early kill.

but in post 304 wug says: "This is a Bikes and Gabe thing. The last time I remember Gabe trying to lead the village like this, he was a wolf, and the last time Bikes had any opinion about anything, it was that Gabe is a good early kill."

i believe wuf here - he'd get called out if he was lying anyway. so what gives? why is bikes so late, shows up only to give support to gabe and attack those that gabe attacks?

[gabe]

I think all conversation about the angel's powers should stop now. The rest of the village doesn't need to know what the angel's powers are, they need to wolf-hunt. Talking about it only helps the wolves, because it's information they do not have that can hurt them.

I don't think so. knowledge is power in this situation. the more we know means we can make more solid logical arguments tht will lead us to winning. if our logic is bulletproof then the Feds can't win


also I'm still confused. is there a chance the angel isn't really a one shot (like jkds proclaims), and jkds is trying to trick the real angel?


if the angel is a one shot then they are now a useless role and they aren't special anymore.

[gabe]

I know that one paragraph says angel ability is once, but rong said the story wouldn't give info on the abilities, and in other posts he doesn't make it very clear, so I'm slightly skeptical

[gabe]

Aubrey, I recognize I made a strong push for eugmac and he wasn't a fed. I don't think it was wrong. also I realize the evidence wasn't major... it never is on day 1. just because you don't see the value in my tactics doesn't mean a wolf
would ever do those things

[gabe]

you guys are crazy saying I encouraged the angel to out. if the angel has a bunch of saves, I think it's correct for the angel to save himself on the first night so their powers can be used in better situations later. if everyone thought this way, then the wolves would know who the angel was (which isn't a death sentence). the angel outing would help the village in multiple ways, and it wouldn't be bad because the wolves already know.

anyone who disputes this logic is wrong. I am/was definitely not saying the angel should definitely out themself

[aubreymcfate]

Aubrey, I recognize I made a strong push for eugmac and he wasn't a fed. I don't think it was wrong. also I realize the evidence wasn't major... it never is on day 1. just because you don't see the value in my tactics doesn't mean a wolf
would ever do those things

i understand that. i don't think what you did was "wrong," but i have to be suspicious and consider the ulterior motive behind everything. same as you did with eug.

besides i think bikes is acting the most suspicious out of anyone. i don't like how he's latching on to you at all, and my guess would be that if you were both wolves, you wouldn't let that fly.

[Keith]

wuf is laying lower this game, which i know he was planning on doing anyway,

where is that in the game thread ?

[aubreymcfate]

where is that in the game thread ?

it's not in this thread, i forget where he said it. i think the last game thread?

[MadMojoMonkey]

I just read through his posts and there are only 2 that have any real content. The rest are fluff, smileys, asking about vote counts/rescinds, and mimicing other players.

I've been having fun and paying attention, so some fluff, not much. That hardly seems like a good enough reason to call me out.

Mimicking others? Is that because I agreed with some content, and came to some similar conclusions about strategy? OK, fine, I didn't feel the need to restate something I agree with. Fair point.

#222 - He says that JKDS and jyms "feel funny", and then Ong calls him out for not having the experience playing with them to have any basis for making that comment.

#323 - While it's still close between eugmac and daven, he switches to eugmac. This is probably his best post, because he started to explain his thought process, although he didn't provide any concrete evidence or specifics.

Perhaps Ong is right. I didn't mean it as a personal read, but as a strategy read. I'm still on the fence about JKDS, and have explained why.

It hardly seems fair to expect anyone to throw out a concrete accusation on Day 1. Surely, any evidence is circumstantial at best, and based on actions which have the most premeditation.

He's clearly watching the thread, because he keeps popping in with fluff -- in fact, he's paying very close attention, because he has made a couple posts asking about bad vote counts or missed rescinds. So why isn't he posting more real content/analysis?

I'm throwing out my reads as I get them, but trying to avoid throwing a bunch of distracting first impressions, which I haven't given myself time to think through.

His vote for eugmac also came at a time that helped daven, because they were the two main wagons. If MMM flips wolf, we'd have to take a closer look at daven.

My vote switced when it became apparent that my vote for Gabe was being wasted. It was too late in the day to pressure anyone new (and unlikely that anyone is following a late-day wagon by a noob).

On the whole, I'd say there are worse offenders for everything I've been cited with, and feel that this vote is just a distraction.

Did I give you what you were hoping for, NightGizmo?

[NightGizmo]

Gabe -- why are you trying so hard to uncover all of the angel information? Not all knowledge helps the village -- for instance, if the seer outed, we'd have more knowledge. But we'd also lose all of the future lookups because he'd be eaten that night.

The same goes for knowing the angel powers. If the angel has more protects, great -- let the wolves worry about it. If he's out of powers and just a normal villager, leave it alone so the wolves don't know whether they have to worry about running into another block. Right now, the wolves don't even know if it's something they have to worry about -- that works to the village's advantage. Nailing it down just makes the wolves' strategy easier.

[NightGizmo]

Did I give you what you were hoping for, NightGizmo?

My vote stands for now. You have about 2.5 posts of good content on all of day 1. Let's see better today. Making posts without actually saying anything is a big wolf tell -- it's hard to continually lie, knowing that your statements will be scrutinized. So prove me wrong with some more content.

[gabe]

I see what you're saying but I'm not completely convinced

some of the heavy hitters gotta stop lurking and start doing work

[a500lbgorilla]

One thing. I really want to lynch jyms.

As for all of the interesting stuff, JKDSs claim of a one-shot power versus the description which dictates rules may have been a play towards the wolves. I'm not interested in puzzling it out, but I think it's clear he's not a wolf. Putting up a wolf on balance for the angel just isn't a good play.

[MadMojoMonkey]

My vote stands for now. You have about 2.5 posts of good content on all of day 1. Let's see better today. Making posts without actually saying anything is a big wolf tell -- it's hard to continually lie, knowing that your statements will be scrutinized. So prove me wrong with some more content.

FWIW, I think you targeting me just screams Village. Doing it so early on day 2 (when you must expect to change your vote before the end of the day) throws a link between us for anyone else to come back and scrutinize, and I think if you really thought I was wolf, you'd have waited until later in the day and you'd have made an actual argument that singles me out among the rabble.

No one expects me or savy to live to late game, so you must expect everyone will know my true identity soon-ish. If you are wolf, then you'd not want this attachment to me on early day 2. That's just silly. If you are vil, then you want to smoke out anyone who may defend me... which no one will, since everyone knows that no one knows what to expect from me, and if I'm wolf and a wolf defends me, then that's bad on them... so...

I think you're really just testing me to ensure that I'll do my part as vil. Which screams vil.

[daven]

why would he be able to protect a different player if it was a one shot deal. maybe rong was disguising the fact that it was a oneshot deal to leave the wolves with the same info that the village had.Butthat post made it quite clear that at that time it was possible for the angel still to protect more people. JKDS only outed himself and confirmed that it was a one shot deal after I made that post . Am i supposed to be clairvoyant and predict that JKDS was going to do that with the info that the MOD had just posted. So why be such a dickhead about it ?

non-zero chance that JKDS is wolf and is hoping to get the true angel to out
pretty small chance though
I think that the angel should lie low for now if they aren't jkds and have more than one protect up their sleeve..

[a500lbgorilla]

Man, this new forum is terrible for maneuvering through this thread. Jyms has the second most posts in this thread and he's done nothing but be timid, afraid of death, defending himself, taking the (frankly sound) approach of ignoring pressure and skipping defenses. Day 2, he's been floating around the conversation, being wishwashy and unengaged with the observations he's making, and his voice is wrong (I dunno how to say it, but he's too damn proper). He's showing every sign of "just don't die, please don't kill me, I just don't want to die." Yesterday I backed off because I thought it might be a sign that he's a special. I'd like to believe that I'm justified in pushing now on the thinking that any wolves actually special hunting would be keying off on the well documented position of jyms that "I just don't want to die until late" (even though I'm doing it because all of his posts today continue to ring alarm bells in my head).

lynch jyms

[daven]

Wuf, you liked running two wagons. Early. Even though you know villager vs villager wagons are a dream come true for wolf teams. You thought that ong was a wolf for reasons that aren't consistent with your werewolf history.
You still smell funny to me.

[daven]

lynch jyms

Jyms wolf would implicate wuf (note wuf's early vote for jyms, then eager search for an excuse to move his vote once a jyms lynch started to look likely)

[a500lbgorilla]

Wow night, very interesting turn of events. We rarely see some kind of specials situation on night one. It will make for some interesting congectuer by the village. I don't think anyone should outthemselves just yet until we have an idea of what it can or can't do. I guess only the angel needs to out if he infact protected himself since only then does the village not know who he is.

I agree, but that said, we can't have a villager modkilled after we lynch someone else as far as I believe. IF he's not here by the end of the day 2 phase, we may need to switch votes to pascal if we haven't got a sure thing. Losing two villagers will erase the angels run good last night.

Good point. Gabe mentioned the angel protecting himself first night, I didn't even think that teh wolves wouldn't know for sure if he protected himself. It very well could have been gabe, JV or gator being protected by the angel and the wolves tried to kill gabe, JV or gator. Bad stretch there. I obviously don't pay enough attention to the details.

"I should be posting a reaction, but I have nothing to say. Look at how things happened. I don't know about them, but oh wow.

I'll now advance a general, philosophical platitude in the same vein as I have done yesterday without tying it down to any concrete aspect of the game before us.

Oh, yes, I was in error. I see that now that my error is highlighted. I could have defended my initial thought but I didn't actually have one."

[Keith]

rilla , what do you think about jyms mentioning the same names as possible angel saves that i said without adding in other potential names. .It seems to me that he was trying to limit how much he actually said as he'd been caught in an error. Also note the extra names that i said could have been angel saves

jyms]@ keith, fuck that scrambling, I'm just trying to figure shit out out loud. I didn't spend a lot of time defending my last bandwagon and I won't start now. I din't name rilla because I have him on my list of possible wolves. as for bikes he never put much heat out there, he lynched Eug, so why would he need protection?

i said bikes,jkds and rilla were also possible people that others may save rather than themselves. Jyms addressed rilla and bikes . Why steer clear of explaining why he didn't mention JKDS who claims to be the angel.

[a500lbgorilla]

It says to me that he's not thinking. He doesn't have any conception of the game to build off of or draw upon because the game for him is have a chat in this thread and fending off the heat.

[daven]

I always post too much, get the obvious "no wolf posts that much and doesn't make a mistake" "obvious villager" and I get killed at night by wolves mid game to keep the confusion alive. The only thing that kills you getting to the end game is people thinking you are a wolf, or thinking your a lock villager. Wolves kill lock villagers.

when there are specials in the game, being a lock villager is great for the village. It means wolves have to either waste a night they could have been special hunting to get you, or they have to special hunt and have a lock-villager floating around the next day. Every time the wolves kill a vanilla villager at night in a game with specials is a bonus for the village. Think about it, wolves are hardly going to night kill a wolf...

[daven]

This game is different seeing as we have a reviver. We should probably lynch someone who will be useful if revived.0

this is something that some people may overlook, worth noting.
also worth noting that the reviver can't be blocked
who is strong and looks like a wolf? anyone?
worth reviving eug tonight and bringing him back as a lock villager? reduces risk of reviver being vig-killed/lynched/nommed before he gets to act

[MadMojoMonkey]

It's 420, y'all know where to find me.

<fluff>

[daven]

at the point where i had 3 votes, eug 4 votes, gabe and wuf both 2 votes
hoopy posted this:

We should consolidate at this point with only like 7hr left.

Gabe is a bad lynch this early, the votes on him are wasted and need to move.

wuf lynch, no reason that I can see for it.

daven lynch isn't based on much, he explained himself fairly well.

then this:

lynch aubrey

Check out her posts, shorter thannormal, less wolf hunting, says she has a lock villager read on ImSavy (how?).

We should run 2 wagons against each other imo, eug vs aubrey, or eug vs jyms if people don't think aubrey is suspicious.

this seems village to me, when it's villager vs villager wagons then starting a third wagon isn't something i'd expect.
he could also be wolf with one of aubrey/wuf/gabe I guess

[wufwugy]

I don't believe anything Gabe says. He seriously laid a bet on Eug? He's never even played with Eug. How in the shit is he going to get some great read on him then? He knows better and has pointed out as much in the past that first day reads are idiotic. Too bad he can't take his own advice

Don't trick yourself into thinking that Gabe wouldn't make these mistakes as a wolf; this is how he plays wolf. He's a great villager but a whack wolf. It's probably because he expects to die as a wolf. He's a smart enough guy to use this knowledge to his advantage by making "crappy villager" mistakes

lynch gabe

I'd love to bold Jyms too. He looks terrible here. The case against him yesterday was great, but it magically died in order to railroad Eugmac. Tough deciding who I'd rather kill now between Gabe and Jyms, but the way Gabe did the Eug lynch is too much for me. That said, not much else has changed. If Gabe is a wolf, Bikes and Jyms need to die.


I can't imagine JKDS being a wolf here. If he is, it'll play itself out like dandy

[Hoopy]

Two decent posts by aubrey, rescind for now.

this is something that some people may overlook, worth noting.
also worth noting that the reviver can't be blocked
who is strong and looks like a wolf? anyone?
worth reviving eug tonight and bringing him back as a lock villager? reduces risk of reviver being vig-killed/lynched/nommed before he gets to act

Bringing back eug would be good, just creating any confirmed villager is huge.

While we're talking about game mechanics I think the vig should NOT use his/her power tonight, the chance of giving the wolves a second kill is too big a risk.

[OngBonga]

Sorry I've been busy today. I think JKDS is the angel. If he's a wolf, he knows that it's a poor trade, unless he got looked up by the seer and knows it. That's the only way I can see him doing this as a wolf. Angel seems more likely than wolf here. I don't like the outing though, I mean how are the wolves to know if they targetted the angel or not? They might assume so, but never certain.

So while the lack of kill is good, we've probably lost an important special early. If he is one shot, I like that he's said so. It's even more important that the other specials avoid detection. They shouldn't expect protection. And if he's two-shot or more, then the wolves will probably waste another kill at some stage. Just keep protecting yourself.

If JKDS isn't the angel, real angel should not counter him yet. Just don't leave it until there's only 3 left.

Gabe is fishy as fuck right now. Suggesting the angel outs was not a good idea. I thought gabe was better than this.

Agree jyms looks dodgy, but I also agree with some of the points that rilla should've kept to himself today.

lynch gabe

[daven]

It's 420, y'all know where to find me.

<fluff>

in the wolf den, right?

[daven]

if we lynch gabe and he turns out village then he seems a good player to revive and better to use the revive early than risk the reviver being killed
if we lynch gabe and he flips wolf then awesome

not sold on my logic there though, there seems to be a trip in there where we end up helping the wolves too much if gabe is villager. Will think on it some more.

[Hoopy]

lynch ImSavy

Couple of reasons.

-Bottom of the post count.
-JKDS (angel) suspects him.
-In reference to jyms.

#21 giving reasoning as to why he tries to stay on the edge of villager/wolf before making a post like that screams wolf at me even more after rereading it.

It's his first game, can anything 'scream wolf'?

[MadMojoMonkey]

lynch Hoopy

I don't like his terse posts. He calls people out for low post count, but hasn't posted much himself.

When he has posted, his reasons have been brief and not compelling.

His bolds are all over the place, and seem like more of a distraction than anything.

Everything he's written today has me -.-

He's openly saying how the village can help itself, but none of his suggestions seem wholly reliable or even solid strategy.

There was a lot of different lynches before the village settled on eug, I think there's atl east some info to be had from day 1.

We should leave Pascal alone for today, give him the max time to get back.

lynch aubrey

See post #318.

I'll read through the thread once I'm back from work.

Two decent posts by aubrey, rescind for now.

Bringing back eug would be good, just creating any confirmed villager is huge.

While we're talking about game mechanics I think the vig should NOT use his/her power tonight, the chance of giving the wolves a second kill is too big a risk.

[bikes]

ok so unless i've read these rules wrong, which are confusing as fuck to begin with, we have until night 3 to use our revive.

so strategically we should use it on someone who owns at this game so we can know if they are a gtd villager and rez them and if not, one less super good wolf amirite?

the choices remain on when to use it. there is a non 0% chance the rezzer dies tonight which would be bad. so we should use it now and not take that chance because after re-reading the rules i'm not sure of how big of an edge the village has.

So I vote either gabe or gator gets lynched today and rezzed tonight. I think those are the two most dangerous people and the two biggest carries in WW.

Oh it also goes without saying that Vig "pussy slayer? wtf dan?" should not shoot anyone atm because losing 2 people sucks.

lynch gabe

[bikes]

instead of making random stabs in the dark use some strategy pls.

[jyms]

We still have to deal with the pascal situation too.

The MMM Lynch bares looking into. I like the points NG made. Gabe always seems villager to me, I've followed him before because he puts together some sound arguments, and I don't remember his wolf game at all.

[bikes]

fkkkkk u pascal. stall this game as long as possible and then have the village agree on someone to shoot and use pascal as the killer

[jyms]

Fuck. There's a whole other page. This site sucks for phones. Gimme a bit too catch up

[jyms]

@rilla. I made some mistakes because I'm an idiot. I have to admit, I was trying to float, not have a low post count and stay alive. I don't do well early in these things, I'm just trying to get to the more interesting part of the game. But it's only because I've not had a role requiring thought since the werewolf /vampire game. I'm a perpetual villager and right now I'm not going to have a shitload of evidence proving shit with guys like you,gabe, jv, gator, bikes. I'm actually only trying to hang out and hope you guys can get shit started. I haven't even put together an excel sheet like I usually do.

[daven]

@rilla. I made some mistakes because I'm an idiot. I have to admit, I was trying to float, not have a low post count and stay alive. I don't do well early in these things, I'm just trying to get to the more interesting part of the game. But it's only because I've not had a role requiring thought since the werewolf /vampire game. I'm a perpetual villager and right now I'm not going to have a shitload of evidence proving shit with guys like you,gabe, jv, gator, bikes. I'm actually only trying to hang out and hope you guys can get shit started. I haven't even put together an excel sheet like I usually do.

villager role requires thought
post, if the interactions you are involved in early means a wolf is caught late and the village wins then you can claim the win - irrespective of whether you survive to end game

[aubreymcfate]

villager requires the most thought of all. it's so frustrating. i wish it didn't involve thought, haha. that would be easy.

there's something about jyms that seems more sloppy villager than wolf - i think it's because his frustration rings true to me. at the same time, it's way possible he's a wolf, tried a ballsy strategy, and is backpedaling like crazy. everyone's kind of dogpiling on him so it's likely all the wolves did to save face.

so lynch jyms

and i agree with bikes - a strong villager should absolutely sacrifice themselves so we can have a lock villager. it's pretty much win/win 'cause the only alternative to villager is wolf. i'm curious to see who offers.

[JKDS]

Im back from ghost town stuff.

DO NOT LYNCH GABE. The case for him is pretty weak, and him suggesting an angel out is NOT out of the ordinary for villager gabe. The case is moot, and there are much better targets.

For instance, where is Savy? If he wasnt a wolf, would a wolf be more likely to jump on my suspicion of him? I take his absence, and the absence of a wagon (except hoopys late vote) to mean that savy is pretty likely to be a wolf.

Also, consider who else would often NK me. Of the people in this game, very few would consider me a n1 kill. Ongbonga is one such person, for the reason that ive soul read him before. His play this game is also less spazy and sporatic than usual villager ong. In fact, hes kinda just blending in this game. That + an attempted kill on me makes me think Ong is very wolfy. Much more so than gabe.


ALSO, stop using the reviver as a reason to kill someone like Gabe. The revived player probably only gets to live a single day, so really their use is pretty minimal. Further, wolves will be night killing good players or people they perceive as threats (at least thats what standard wolf meta is, and the attempt on me is consistent with that). A villager that is known to be a villager is useful regardless of who it is, and this field is pretty strong to begin with, so lets keep our stronger players around for as long as possible and let them do their things.

To reiterate, we lynch people that are wolfy. Lynching gabe because hed be a useful revive target is silly if the case for him being a wolf is weak.

[aubreymcfate]

The revived player probably only gets to live a single day, so really their use is pretty minimal.

what's the evidence that this is likely?

[JKDS]

Fwiw, my top suspects atm are Savy, Ong, Aubrey, and Wuf. Aubrey is NOT playing like she did last game, and is being much more active (not to mention super defensive). Likewise wuf, but its been forever since ive played with him so hes on the bottom of my list.

I stand firm in thinking that Gabe, Jyms, and MMM are poor picks for today, and seem likely villagers. Jyms does this shit a lot, and Im unconvinced he'd pull the "fuck you guys, im not saying jack" defense as a wolf on day 1. I think he'd fight a bit more, and the wolves would encourage him to fight a bit more.

[JKDS]

what's the evidence that this is likely?

Because having a player alive that is a confirmed villager, which the revived player will be, is a threat to the wolves. Eug being essentially a confirmed villager last game was essential in making an easy village late game win.

[JKDS]

But let me stress again, the revived player will be useful regardless of who it is. Having a player whose suspicions we can trust is devastating to the wolves, and we have a very strong field here. At least half the players on this player list are good revives, just let it happen. The driving force for a lynch should be wolfyness, and if the player happens to be a good revive target if we're wrong, then fine. But that should strictly be a secondary consideration.

[aubreymcfate]

that's a good reason but why wouldn't it be in the rules?

also, about my behavior last game compared to this game: i was a special last game, remember? and plus fuck yeah i want to be more active. i like to feel like i'm becoming more confident with my posts. it's funny - i get called out for not being active enough last two games, and now i'm too active. you can never win with this game, lol.

[JKDS]

Add bikes to my list as well btw. Hes wolfy too.

[JKDS]

Ok dinner time, but one last post to comment on.

@MMM: This is standard hoopy play, and hes typically hard to read because of it. I dont think hes a good lynch today.

Also, i really dont like how quick the gabe wagon is going and for such weak reasoning. Wuf bikes and ong all get wolf points for this.

[wufwugy]

All righty fellas

I was planning to wait till I wake up tomorrow, but bad things like to happen in these games while I sleep

I'm the receiver, the seer sent me Ong. He's a fed

My plan from the beginning was to sneakily tell the seer what the roles of the look ups are by ignoring those that come up as villager and trying to lynch one when he comes up as wolf, but that wont work here. Ong and the rest of the baddies know that he was looked up; that's why Ong has only posted once today. I've considered keeping things quiet and not implicating Ong in hopes that the wolves won't target me overnight, but that's not a safe bet and I'd be livid with myself if I was wrong. It also helps that now the Euro crowd can reexamine the thread with the knowledge that not only was Ong a fed all this time, but the other feds very likely know that the receiver learned it overnight.

I suggest everybody rescind their votes and don't bold until I do. My day is winding down and I won't be back for like 14 hours

[OngBonga]

Can't argue with you JKDS, I'd want you dead. But I'm down with getting lynched and being revived, I can prove I'm villager by dying. I got my own ideas on your attempted kill. I was half expecting rilla to use it against me, I thought he did it because you were onto him, and he could frame me. But said nothing about the link to you. So idk.

You're wrong if you think I'm a wolf. But today would be a good day to get lynched, so fire away.

[OngBonga]

Pfft.

[OngBonga]

I'm miller.

[OngBonga]

I'm wuffinator.

[daven]

would have been interesting to instead run an ong wagon and see what info would come out of it, but, meh, whatever.
if you know that wuf isn't the receiver (i.e. you are instead) then don't just come and insta-post nou