CRAI turn with nut blocker

[griffey24]

Calculate what you perceive your equity to be vs his calling range. Once you know that, you can figure out how often he needs to b/f for this play to be profitable.

I don't think I have any c/bomb range on this turn, so I'd rather just bet, with the intention of either b/c or b/jam if he raises turn.

[BorisTheSpider]

Calculate what you perceive your equity to be vs his calling range. Once you know that, you can figure out how often he needs to b/f for this play to be profitable.

I don't think I have any c/bomb range on this turn, so I'd rather just bet, with the intention of either b/c or b/jam if he raises turn.

Yeah I'm crushed. Realistically I doubt I have more than 20% vs. his calling range so:

EV(he calls) = $4.16 pot equity

So the EV of shoving is about -$3.50 if he always calls, the pot is $9 when I shove so I need him to fold about 40% of the time. It seems a bit marginal, but I think he can b/f quite a lot here - sometimes he just has random floats (which we're probably a ahead of a lot anyway), sometimes he's betting something mid-strength for value and protection because he doesn't want the turn checking through.

I did expect people to perhaps say it looked a bit odd. I agree it's unorthodox. I don't mind it as a way to play the nut flush here though - if we just bet the turn and he calls with something mid-strength we're unlikely to take the rest of his money on the river, but with the stack sizes as they are, if he bets something mid-strength for value and protection on the turn then we jam over the top, it's tough for him to fold getting 4:1 if he has a decent diamond in his hand. So yeah, although it looks a bit odd, I actually think I could play the nut flush like this sometimes.