Flop stab multiway

[abelardx]

On a dry flop if I'm last to act I routinely bet half pot with anything which usually takes it down. OOP I'm more likely to give up.

Since it's a 3-bet pot, which makes it protected to some degree, I'd prefer stabbing the turn after SB checked twice, if that happened. I'd size the stab closer to half pot too.

As played, if SB c/r's, I'd just fold. I think shipping overs is a big mistake. Those kinds of plays will sometimes work but overall they are a cost center not a profit center.

[BorisTheSpider]

As played, if SB c/r's, I'd just fold. I think shipping overs is a big mistake. Those kinds of plays will sometimes work but overall they are a cost center not a profit center.

What can he comfortably check-raise here though? I doubt he wants to check an overpair because it's multiway (so people will tend to play more straightforward) and there's a significant chance it checks through, leading to either a third heart or an overcard to his pair turning (and even if they don't he just missed out on a street of value), so I think he leads with an overpair. Even if he does check-shove an overpair, we probably have some outs, maybe even 6, and we have the backdoor nut flush.

He can check-ship a flush draw, but we block the nut flush draw and if he ships KhTh or similar we're slightly better than flipping, KhQh is only 41% vs our hand.

Literally the only hands he can comfortably check-shove are the 3 combos of 99, and 1 of 33 which he probably doesn't 3bet preflop. I also don't believe he will checkraise these too often here, because on this texture he's never going to believe we can have anything to pay him off with, so he'll rather flat and keep the air in our range (or let us value town ourselves with an overpair) than checkraise.

If he checkraises, he's so polarised and for the reasons above I think he has so little in his value range, I can't ever see folding. I also don't want to just flat a raise and let him have a chance to draw out or put me in a tough spot on the turn so I prefer just shipping it in.

I'm _far_ more worried if he flats the flop.

[griffey24]

What can he comfortably check-raise here though? I doubt he wants to check an overpair because it's multiway (so people will tend to play more straightforward) and there's a significant chance it checks through, leading to either a third heart or an overcard to his pair turning (and even if they don't he just missed out on a street of value), so I think he leads with an overpair. Even if he does check-shove an overpair, we probably have some outs, maybe even 6, and we have the backdoor nut flush.

He can check-ship a flush draw, but we block the nut flush draw and if he ships KhTh or similar we're flipping.

Literally the only hands he can comfortably check-shove are the 3 combos of 99, and 1 of 33 which he probably doesn't 3bet preflop. I also don't believe he will checkraise these too often here, because on this texture he's never going to believe we can have anything to pay him off with, so he'll rather flat and keep the air in our range (or let us value town ourselves with an overpair) than checkraise.

If he checkraises, he's so polarised and for the reasons above I think he has so little in his value range, I can't ever see folding. I'm _far_ more worried if he flats the flop.

When you cold call you signify some strength or at least that you're trying to rep some strong hand. Because of this SB can be fairly confident that you will bet, especially on a board like this. People in SB's position definitely go for a c/r here with QQ+, knowing that you will bet a very high % of the time.

You block QQ/AA which is nice, but I'd also fold to a c/r. Nobody is messing around here too light when you look so strong.