Not So Vanilla Werewolf Diffusion

[Keith]

it also fits with him being a wolf ....why do you and jkds find it so hard to admit that????? Add in his refusal to protect the villages remaining roles by fighting his lynch which he said he wouldn't do until; his bluff was called ......perhaps you can explain how that is pro village

[gabe]

it also fits with him being a wolf ....why do you and jkds find it so hard to admit that????? Add in his refusal to protect the villages remaining roles by fighting his lynch which he said he wouldn't do until; his bluff was called ......perhaps you can explain how that is pro village

i agree it fits, as in, its possible, but imo its so much more likely hes just playing ong style. i forget if you played the deadwolf game, but ong spewed so hard he challenged someone to a duel as a wolf and promptly lost. hes doing the same thing here... playing his role with maximum spewage. if he was a wolf, this plan of his would be carefully constructed, which i dont think is what happened

[Keith]

well here goes

lynch rong because only a wolf has "intentional misrepresentation" on his mind

I think ong and jack have a very good chance of being village. I don't think we are going to get a better lead than rong just gave us. it's hard to see myself switching to someone different

not many players so don't expect a long day 1. lets lynch rong and get working on tonight. if I'm right you can clear a villager and kill a wolf !

I have no night 1 power so angel please protect me

super sick if you are a wolf. frees up the rest of the village for you to target.

I like ong's posts and they make him seem quite villagery

I like the points gator is trying to make but the way he raises them is potentially wolfy (where I think ong's post aren't)

1 villager point to jkds

Not really. There's not many people here who are as good as dan. There's you, gabe and gator. Jack when he's on form.
But thanks for joining gabe in my villager list. I like the idea of a JKDS gabe ong townbloc to crush the wolves.

Is this Ong spewing early in the thread giving away the wolf team ...cos hey noone will catch on and all are good players. Wolves always spew early in the game.

I'm on 5 votes.

Guys I'm a n1 seer. If we have a n1 angel, don't out, just protect me. I'll have a wolf tomorrow. If I get nommed, then jack and bigred all day long. Last one could be anyone.

making his play ..and requesting protection. again convenient if you three are a wolf team and who else asked to be protected already ...gabe.

Lynch me tomorrow if you have any doubts. It's a bad fakeclaim for a wolf.

jkds

ong
rong
jv
gator
jyms
bid
bigred
luco
hoop
gabe
daven
keith


i can only vote for rong, jyms, bigred, keith, daven.

fwiw last time daven did an extended AFK he was a wolf (WW 2013 game). he had real reasons, but maybe subconciously he wouldnt do this as a villager? like if he was a wolf, he uses the convenient excuse of not checking the internet, but when hes hunting, he always takes the time to check the thread.

Like this one ^. I remember wolf ong going ballistic and throwing out reads on everyone and attacking everyone that attacked him as a wolf before.



And in this one ^ he seems pissed off and cornered. I mean, if his claim is true then I can see why he would be mad about getting votes...its essentially a sign he fucked up. So it makes sense both ways.



But this one seems like a lie. His attack on Jack seemed sincere to me; maybe not a 100% confident read but his posts indicated he at least thought jack was wolfier than most players. This wasnt just a reaction test with no teeth behind it, ong thought (and still thinks) that JV is a wolf.

This is a desperate defense, and he outed shortly after. What i'm struggling with is if Ong would really feel this desperation just because hes a n1 seer or if it makes more sense that hes just a wolf.



This post doesnt matter though. 1), everyone is gonna claim something before they die. We cant just stop lynching because someone claimed. 2) idk if I can believe you no matter what role you are. You stated already that people should lie about their role (angel/seer) and also their night. I have no reason to think you wouldnt follow this and just claim seer n1 to get another day.

This is tough, and I dont think its gonna get better. I dont think he can stay alive past tomorrow, but i dont think we lose much by just waiting. I vote wait.

so jkds is saying that he shouldn't stay alive past today ...amazing how he's changed his tune. Also he points out that ong wolf attacks those people that lynch him.

Nah, I think ong's a villager. Theres too many attacks against him that seem contrived and bandwagony, especially after wuf killed luco's argument and he outed. I get the confusion, but my gut is to slow down and work it out not push harder.

and a rapid change of heart

I agree with you gabe. jyms hasn't done anything to convince me he's a villager, and seeing as bigred and jack do not seem to be acceptable targets, I'm stuck there. Dan is in the same place as jyms, only I feel dan's wolfhunting record is stronger than jyms' and as such it's jyms if rong is the alternative.

daven got into my villager camp by getting wagonned by bigred and jack. I won't be reassessing daven until I find out the alignment of one of those two.

again the team putting pressure on another player .

look at all of us hunting wolves, trying to get to the bottom of this. who isnt doing this? rong, jyms, keith, bigred come to mind

gabe hinting at me and emphasizing that its the "team" who are doing the wolf hunting. now he's claiming that he hasn't been hinting at me all ga,e.

please don't follow ong. I'm starting think he's a wolf or he's not actually going to look up jack tonight

tomorrow well be more sure about that situation

ok lets kill rong since he is unrelated to this ong drama. angel protect ong but maybe like 10% of the time pick someone else

lets deflect away from a team mate and oh protect him .only people telling the angels who to protect are gabe and ong so far.

Wow that's some crazy logic. So a wolf would never attempt to misdirect the town into making optimal wolf moves because lol as if a wolf would ever be so blatant? Is that it?

This seems like a typical Ong dare post where he can't resist taunting the village.

this is so dumb

just reading the first handful of posts in the thread, it seems really likely that jack is a villager and ong is spazzing

they both happily voted for daven early on too rescind and

lynch daven

again protecting ong and deflecting the attention elsewhere

And if jack comes back wolf gabe shoots to the top of my list. It's interesting that gabe is trying to get me to look up gator. There's plenty of other seers who can do that. I'm interested in bigred and jack, and I'm not about to be influenced by anyone who isn't confirmed villager.

Note that Gabe only shoots to the top of his list if Jack comes back a wolf. gabe and ong as a wolf team would know that Jack will never come back as wolf as they are going to eat him so ong is throwing suspicion at Gabe which will never be realised by evidence.

To be clear - I don't have a problem with people not believing me. It might surprise me that you think a wolf who felt like he was forced to fakeclaim on d1 would claim a n1 action, but it doesn't matter. What matters is that I live through the night. That's +ev for village, while killing me today is -ev. I never survive for long as a wolf in this spot..

Here's a thought. If I'm right about jack, then the wolves will be forced to nom me, right? If they nom me, what does that tell the village about jack? Yeah it looks bad for him. So if jack is wolf, the wolves won't want to nom me, nor will they want to leave me to look up a wolf.

If jack is a villager, then wolves might want to leave me alive, because while I clear jack, I'm tomorrow's lynch. They could nom me anyway so it looks bad for jack, but it seems better to just nom jack outright and leave me to be lynched.

We find out me a lot about me and jack overnight. Why would you want to jeopordise that?

What you're doing here dan is protecting jack and bigred from my night action. I might ask why you would do this?

funny how you predicted what was going to be the outcome of the night.

I lynched JV because Post 255. I lynched Jyms because theres 2 hours left, jack isnt dying, and I still think he is wolfy from his p1 and 2 posts.

Regarding handholding, I was referring to a game that I'm not sure you were in. In it I spent a ridiculous amount of time rallying the village into playing day 1 optimally, and the result was Ongbonga gave away most of his team. We, as a playerbase, didnt learn from this. That doesnt bother me, but I wouldnt have done it had I known there would be no impact on future games. I see no reason to believe doing it again would obtain a different result.

As for strategy, I charge $15/hr. Paypal only. The only information we needed for this set up was the warning of fake claims because of how prevalent they are; but I see no reason to invest more time than I already have on that subject considering ong beat the topic to death. Further, Idk why anyone here would need help with seer or angel strategy, and openly telling everyone how to act helps the wolves at night. There isnt anything else to discuss.

has he given away the rest of his team again this game.?openly telling people how to act at night helps the wolves ...hasn't stopped gabe and ongie from doing it though has it? But you still insist that they are villagers.

I dont think I know how to read people anymore. Except for gator from last game, ive been nothing but wrong for awhile.

He should have gotten some cool info from wuf though. Ong might be able to clear himself if he can tell someone their role and that person agrees. om not sure I like that idea though. 1) if he says angel, that Power has a higher chance of being right if hes just bullshitting as a wolf. with 2 seers dead, wolf ong knows that either the remaining pool is 4 angel 4 seer, or 5/3 or 6/2, so angel is a safe bet. but, 2) if he says seer, im not sure I want the wolves knowing who an active seer is. So idk.

The cost is too great I think. dont reveal roles ong/seers. If their power is used up and they out, then it makes sense.

essentially a worthless post except for planting the idea that ong could give a role and someone agree. could be handy if he tells a fellow wolf that they are angel/seer and wolf agrees. if the fellow wolf does get lynched by some chance and shown to be a wolf ong then has his n1 angel as a fall back and would just claim to be unlucky in saying a wolf was an villager.

They obviously killed jack because they thought I was going to clear him. So at least they believed me. Probably should've faked a guilty on bigred to see what happens but I think enough fucking about, we got two seers dead and I'm gonna take the fall.

ftr I have a much more awesome wolf strategy for this than the one I would be playing if I'm a wolf. If I were a wolf you'd all think I was a cleared villager by now. So the fact I'm looking fucked should suggest strongly that I'm a villager who got me a dose of SDM syndrome.

so if u thought all that stuff you could have protected JV

I could've if I actually thought he was a villager. I might even had done so if I considered they'd nom him. Whatever, my FPS fucked up and I'm not going to fight lynch because I haven't a leg to stand on. My only defence is this is way too retarded for me to do as a wolf.

cant argue with that!

lynch gator

to me hes just going along with things and hes not connected to the ong whirlwind that blew through the last few pages

bold i think are villagers:

jkds
ong
rong
gator
jums
bid
bigred
luco
hoop
gabe
keith

so gabe deflects attention away from ong again

Add Bigred, and I agree with Gabe's villager list. I feel strongest about BID and Ong. Other than that, I dont feel comfortable voting anyone until I get the chance to dig into the thread tomorrow afternoon.

again the team agreeing with each others lists.

What is the catch and release system?

run a train on someone and see if they out


everyone just waiting around for other people to convince them who to vote for isnt going to catch us up. all aboard the gator train

i dont know why i called it catch and release. i was maybe hoping people would just guess right so its not spelled out for the wolves, so they cant easily devise a counter-strat

like i said ....when pressed why he called it a catch and release system he can't explain why he used that phrase.implying its something that someone else originated and he can only have picked that up in the wolf thread.

I dont have time to discuss it atm, but Keith your bullet points dont make a good case agaisnt ong imo. I think the info we get about bigred from an ong lynch is quite minimal, and while we would be risking outing another special...we also lose the opportunity to nail a wolf. In addition, I can see ong lying about his role as both a vllager and a wolf, especially since he made that post about how he thinks thats the best strategy. I need more.

defending a teammate again

And the idea that me coming back villager clears bigred is flawed, so flawed that I think there's a good chance that keith is wolf with bigred.

rescind hoopy

By killing jack, they showed that they expected me to clear him today. So they didn't expect me to look up bigred. So bigred can easily be a wolf still.

Bigred is still my number one wolf suspect, he still jumped on my wagon yesterday because I changed my read on daven. But hey anyone notice that bigred himself changed his read on daven? He must have done, because when he was voting for me, he must have been assuming daven was a villager, seeing as I jumped on him when along with bigred after daven's flurry of posts.

Bigred's vote on me was a really bad excuse to pile on a villager wagon. If I need to die to show that I'm a villager and that's what bigred did, so be it. But bigred is still dodgy as fuck.

Keith suggesting bigred is cleared if I flip villager is sketch as fuck, because keith then votes for a vulnerable villager. When I flip, ooh look bigred is clear.

Truth is I'm feeling pretty dejected, I don't have any confidence whatsoever in my reads any more. But I'm not going to go down without telling people how my reads have changed as a result of what's happening today.

I now think bigred and keith are wolves.

remeber that quote from above where wolf Ong attacks the people attacking him.

I'm really against an ong lynch. if you guys think he's a wolf then he would have to be very very clever. it makes so much more sense that he was a villager. i don't see myself voting for him at all with what's out there


wow perfect timing for you to make a wolfy post. who actually writes that they "truly believe" something in werewolf unless they are lying or being misleading? to me that phrasing seems odd, and finding odd stuff is how you soulread

again defending ong and then deflection attention elsewhere

just think what ong put the village through,
then remember that ong gonna ong, and all of a sudden he doesn't seem like a wolf at all

another defend ong post

Yet you still think I'm a wolf? I'll say it again, I have what I consider to be an outstanding wolf strategy for this game format. But keith is right, if I'm a wolf I'm not being clever. In fact I'd be very reckless.

So keith has spotted a villager tell, yet is still presenting me as a wolf. Either that or he thinks I am stupid.

i agree with you that his rationale is wrong, but you should also realize how often you appear the same way. if someone is posting stuff thats wrong, does that make them wolfy or just a wrong villager?

either way i think its v v unlikely ong is a wolf and keith has a decent shot at being bad guy

again defending ong and pointing at me.

i dont disagree with your logic, i was just calling you out for using the words "truly believe." if someone in this game believed something, then they would usually just say they believe it, not try to force the village to accept they are being truthful but saying 'truly believe'

lynch keith

Im happiest with this. I think the wolves thought we'd kill ong today, and I think theyre pissed we're letting him go. Keith Rong and Jyms dont seem to be doing anything but going after him, and are ignoring all the signs that show ong is likely just villager ong. Wolves have a lot of difficulty in making up reads, and I think keith exemplifies that the best.

Epic wufwugy soul read this game is JeRKy, for Jyms Rong and Keith.

ongs targetted me , gabes targetted me , and now jkds has to join in and target me. signs of desperation in the den. If one of them falls they all fall now.

Day 1



Predicting ong is a n1 angel here...



and here...



and here on day 2, but ldo its completely unreasonable for him to ever be a villager and making this play.

No way. You're a wolf, chose not to kill him because you soul read his role, and now are hoping we do youre dirty work. None of the reasoning you have given for lynching ong holds any water, and if you were actually a villager I think you'd be more open to the idea of him being a villager since, you know, you predicted he was what he claims.

misrepresentation again, i said he could be a n1 angel as well as other options , not that he was a n1 angel

@Gabe: Lets wait a day or two on gator. I'd like to give him a little more opportunity to use a role if he has one, just because historically hes been one of our best seers/angels. I also dont like that jyms wants him dead too, and if Im right about keith then going after gator today is a mistake.

they really need to get rid of me and stop me highlighting the three of them.

JKDS what do you think of keith's comments that me flipping villager clears bigred? If keith is wolf, then he's either trying to clear bigred, or make it seem that way so he becomes an easy mislynch if keith dies. I'd be more inclined to think the former, seeing as bigred's reasoning for voting me yesterday seemed highly opportunistic.

I like your logic regarding jyms and rong, but I can't see all three wolves come gunning for me while everyone else dithers. I'd expect one to hold back.

I also must admit gabe backing off me so fast felt weird.

more team play trying to pile the pressure onto me.

Well JKDS and luco are my two strongest villager reads so bigred and keith are not really helping their cause afaic.

again reinforce in the village eyes that gabe and JKDS are villagers

to me it seems like theres no way ong is a wolf.

keith's analysis is wrong, but that doesnt make me think hes a wolf

i disagree with what rongs saying and he seems to be trying to keep village focus on ong. since i feel strongly ong is a villager, i dont understand why rong wouldnt see this, which makes me think hes wolfy (while if it was keith doing this, i think its more likely keith is making a mistake)

jyms is iffy. not much to go by here

i'm voting gator or rong

they can't risk the village listening to me, but maybe they realise now that they are so linked to one another , if i die and shown to be a villager then its curtains for their wolf team.

i would out if i found a wolf, and just defend a known villager if they catch heat without saying i looked them up

i think we dont need to out for villagers because imo there is already a small group of confirmed villagers. if the person is 1 vote away from a lynch then its worth outing. ofc the wolves could do this but we will be smart on how we deal with any and all claims

why refuse to say who your confirmed group of villagers. obviously team wolf of ong, gabe jkds.

ong is a polarizing figure so how about someone just look him up at night. thats fine with me. but i think village should lynch someone not him or related to the people hes arguing with because to me it seems like villagers just going at it

Again , they've blatantly been calling me a wolf ....but now its just villagers going at each other. they can't risk me being shown to be a villager.also if they are team wolf and i'm a villager then lynching one of the non participants in the argument will ensure that we don't get a wolf and increases the chance of hitting a remaining seer

i agree it fits, as in, its possible, but imo its so much more likely hes just playing ong style. i forget if you played the deadwolf game, but ong spewed so hard he challenged someone to a duel as a wolf and promptly lost. hes doing the same thing here... playing his role with maximum spewage. if he was a wolf, this plan of his would be carefully constructed, which i dont think is what happened

again defending ong but trying to get some distance. His outing was forced on him because he was heading for a lynch. he's being winging it ever since and hence the non constructed plan.

another thing that struck me was that around the time of Ongs outing , gabe and jkds totally disappeared from the thread. go back and check as they are bound to deny it.