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 Originally Posted by OngBonga
I don't get keith's plan. So we all "shoot" whoever is below or above us. Three of us are hotshots, and those three will kill their target. How do we get confirmed villagers out of this? Assuming all three hotshots survive the massacre, we have a 66% certainty that each individual hotshot is a villager, 33% wolf. And that's worth risking blindly shooting two villagers for and potentially killing the vig and bodyguard, who both have claimable roles? No it's not.
It's a bad plan and keith knows it. Keith is wolfing here.
Originally Posted by JKDS
Each soul reader has a 3/13 chance of being a vigilante/hotshot. Therefore, each has a 3/13 chance of using their skills to kill a wolf. You allege this is a wolf slip, but I dont see how a wolf gets to 3/13.
that is bollocks . each hotshot/vig has 100% chance of using their soul reading skills since they have the role.its fixed. the non hotshots have a 0 % chance of shooting.the hotshots have a 4/12 chance of hitting a wolf. if the all hotshots claim the vig has a 3/9 chance of hitting a wolf. if the bodyguard claims that brings it down to 3/8. if two bodyguards claim then chance of vig hitting a wolf shoots up to 50%.
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