Carnage before Christmas

[baudib]

oh wtf did that really happen

[baudib]

lynch keybored

[wufwugy]

key looks like wolf hotshot who thinks gabe is vil hotshot

[OngBonga]

It's either a bluff or a wolf imo.

[OngBonga]

lynch keybored

premature

wait for mojo, reasses based on gabe's flip if it happens.

[BankItDrew]

I'm willing to bet that keybored isn't a hot shot.

[wufwugy]

I'm willing to bet that keybored isn't a hot shot.

why?

[OngBonga]

It's what I'm thinking.

[Keybored]

U guys are reading far too much into this... I'm not a wolf, I'm your wife!
Anyway, I wasn't willing to risk getting lynched/hanged/vigged or friendly-fired b4 using my BADASS MURCAN GUN!

Deal with it!!

[BankItDrew]

why?

I have more respect for keybored's game than that.

[Keybored]

key looks like wolf hotshot who thinks gabe is vil hotshot

Gabe is MIA, how can I think he's anything?

[Keybored]

I'm willing to bet that keybored isn't a hot shot.

Sucka!

[baudib]

rescind

[Keybored]

It's what I'm thinking.

would I lie to you, Ongstah?

[Keybored]

I have more respect for keybored's game than that.

thx, kid

[OngBonga]

would I lie to you, Ongstah?

I'd lie to you.

[BankItDrew]

how can I think he's anything?

Then why would you kill him? Because he's quiet?

Even if he's a wolf, it was a random shot, with no basis for doing so.

[baudib]

just fyi, Gator are involved in another game, it's very intense, so that's the reason it's difficult/inappropriate for us to talk much about each other at the time.

i've been straight trolling because of that because.

[GatorJH]

Gabe hasnt done shit to show he is a villager.

This.

[wufwugy]

guess just waiting to see if there's a flip

[JKDS]

[wufwugy]

just fyi, Gator are involved in another game, it's very intense, so that's the reason it's difficult/inappropriate for us to talk much about each other at the time.

i've been straight trolling because of that because.

uuuuuuuh how is this not a big problem?

[GatorJH]

I'm willing to bet that keybored isn't a hot shot.

agreed

[Keybored]

Someone had to take it today, imo.

Gabe wants to pull the standard, "D1 & D2 are beneath me, I'm waiting for the real game."
Prob is, we don't have that kinda time, so he's not helping.

Then, JKDS sealed my deal with Gabe in his post 216.

Besides, you all knowzit, anyone I chose woulda been over anal-ized anyway.

[wufwugy]

time for that jkds style read

gator ong bid all think key is bluffing. why so apt to think this? all four are wolves and know that the non-hotshot wolf is bluffing

[GatorJH]

just fyi, Gator are involved in another game, it's very intense, so that's the reason it's difficult/inappropriate for us to talk much about each other at the time.

i've been straight trolling because of that because.

This is true and ditto.

[wufwugy]

key is acting like it's legit though

sticking with wolf hotshot trying to hit vil hotshot

[JKDS]

just fyi, Gator are involved in another game, it's very intense, so that's the reason it's difficult/inappropriate for us to talk much about each other at the time.

i've been straight trolling because of that because.

Bullshit. Not bullshit that you're in a game with gator. Bullshit that baudib, player of 20 billion werewolf games, is crippled whenever hes in a game with a player hes in another game with. You know how to handle this.

[GatorJH]

uuuuuuuh how is this not a big problem?

Game will be resolved no later than 9PM tomorrow night.

[OngBonga]

time for that jkds style read

gator ong bid all think key is bluffing. why so apt to think this? all four are wolves and know that the non-hotshot wolf is bluffing

Fucking hell wuf, you think that all the wolves will react in exactly the same way to something they know is a bluff? Can I have some of what you're smoking please?

[GatorJH]

Bullshit. Not bullshit that you're in a game with gator. Bullshit that baudib, player of 20 billion werewolf games, is crippled whenever hes in a game with a player hes in another game with. You know how to handle this.

I would normally agree with this JKDS, but do believe his is totally focused on that game right now. We are midway through the current day (they last 24 hours and end at 9PM) and tomorrow will determine the winner.

This game has consumed my life for the last 3 days and he is in a much more critical position than I am.

[wufwugy]

Fucking hell wuf, you think that all the wolves will react in exactly the same way to something they know is a bluff? Can I have some of what you're smoking please?

no i dont. i just said it because i noticed the same exact kind of pattern that was jkds' read in the previous game

that one turned out to be wrong

[Keybored]

Fucking hell wuf, you think that all the wolves will react in exactly the same way to something they know is a bluff? Can I have some of what you're smoking please?

How/why would they know/think it's a bluff?

[OngBonga]

How/why would they know/think it's a bluff?

wuf was suggesting you're a wolf who's bluffing, and the other three wolves, me jkds and drew, know you're not the hot shot.

It's ridiculously dumb, but the fact he's spewing this shit and then saying it's shit, well that makes me happy.

[Keith]

I don't get keith's plan. So we all "shoot" whoever is below or above us. Three of us are hotshots, and those three will kill their target. How do we get confirmed villagers out of this? Assuming all three hotshots survive the massacre, we have a 66% certainty that each individual hotshot is a villager, 33% wolf. And that's worth risking blindly shooting two villagers for and potentially killing the vig and bodyguard, who both have claimable roles? No it's not.

It's a bad plan and keith knows it. Keith is wolfing here.

Each soul reader has a 3/13 chance of being a vigilante/hotshot. Therefore, each has a 3/13 chance of using their skills to kill a wolf. You allege this is a wolf slip, but I dont see how a wolf gets to 3/13.

that is bollocks . each hotshot/vig has 100% chance of using their soul reading skills since they have the role.its fixed. the non hotshots have a 0 % chance of shooting.the hotshots have a 4/12 chance of hitting a wolf. if the all hotshots claim the vig has a 3/9 chance of hitting a wolf. if the bodyguard claims that brings it down to 3/8. if two bodyguards claim then chance of vig hitting a wolf shoots up to 50%.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Everyone gathered for lunch at Triptane's Tavern, and they hid their growing paranoia well at first. The usual banter started to dominate the conversation. Friendly jabs and plenty of mom jokes were going around, but there was a tension in the muscles just around everyone's eyes that belied their true intentions. It was soon clear that the nervous wit and strained chuckles were becoming harder to maintain.

As the group was just filing back out to the forum, people were of mixed spirits. Some pools of people formed along the walk and hushed conversations were abundant in all of them. Angry fingers were being gestured from seemingly everyone.

As the group filed back into the forum, keybored started talking louder than usual. Most people had to double-take at hearing his voice. All heads turned at keybored, most of them trying to remember what, if anything, he was on about. All they had time to see was a tiny smirk mid-sentence as keybored pulls out his Murcan gun and fires into the crowd.

"What the hell was that?"
"It's probably a toy or something."
"Can anybody see anything through the damn smoke?"
"Everybody's here, right? If you're dead, speak up." BID's voice is unmistakable in the din.

As the smoke clears, gabe's body is found slumped over a journal he was writing. It's entire contents read:
"This whole Bodyguard thing is not for me. I'm way more serious than anyone else here. Clearly I should be the one bodyguarded.
I hate monkeys. Monkeys fling poo. Plus, they stink."

Spoiler: Show

gabe, the Village Bodyguard, was shot dead on D1.

The living (12):
BankItDrew
baudib
dhubermex
GatorJH
Hoopy
JKDS
Keith
keybored
Luco
ongbonga
rong
wufwuggy


The dead (1)
gabe - Village Bodyguard


Day 1 will end in ~9.5 hours.

[OngBonga]

bravo

[wufwugy]

lynch keybored

im gonna have to go back over it to make absolutely sure, but this has to be wolfhotshot special hunting. key targeting gabe makes no sense given key's previous posts. reason would have him shooting gator, but he didnt.

[OngBonga]

Don't lynch him, don't shoot him.

[OngBonga]

Dude is potentially confirmable. wuf don't act on emotion.

[OngBonga]

If he's a wolf, it only takes one village hotshot to flip and then the other knows he's a wolf.

So yeah, definitely do not lynch him, and don't shoot him. Not yet.

[OngBonga]

that is bollocks . each hotshot/vig has 100% chance of using their soul reading skills since they have the role.its fixed. the non hotshots have a 0 % chance of shooting.the hotshots have a 4/12 chance of hitting a wolf. if the all hotshots claim the vig has a 3/9 chance of hitting a wolf. if the bodyguard claims that brings it down to 3/8. if two bodyguards claim then chance of vig hitting a wolf shoots up to 50%.

Not that it matters now, but I wasn't considering the specials outing. jkds was right that this was a decent d2 plan, and I was wrong to think it was a bad plan. But I still think you're wolfy for twisting jkds' words.

[JKDS]

+1 with ong. Wolves probably use their power later rather than earlier anyway.

[OngBonga]

wuf why haven't you rescinded yet, are you stupid or a wolf?

[wufwugy]

wuf why haven't you rescinded yet, are you stupid or a wolf?

because im trying to figure out why you guys dont seem to understand normal process has very little value in this game

[wufwugy]

it's like you're willing to give up a good shot at a wolf on the possibility that the hotshot is the d1 lynch or n1 vigged

[OngBonga]

because im trying to figure out why you guys dont seem to understand normal process has very little value in this game

Look. This is a matter of logic.

If he's a wolf, then he becomes confirmed wolf from the living hot shot's pov when the other village hotshot dies, or from everyone's pov when both village hotshots die.

If he's a villager, he becomes confirmed when wolf hotshot dies, or when one village hotshot dies and he doesn't get shot.

We've just lost the bodyguard, who could confirm his alignment by claiming. Literally the least optimal thing we can do is to lynch keybored.

[JKDS]

rescind hoopy, lynch dhuber

Cuz dhuber is super likely to be a wolf. I highly doubt he posts his lynch on me like this as a villager. Hes usually overly cautious and conservative about things, this isnt like him. He also ignored the question on why he still claimed villager, even though he promised not too this game. The case on hoopy is pretty weak too.

[wufwugy]

key simply cannot be a villager here. not unless he hates his win condition

his rationale for killing gabe is backwards. he claimed it was because gabe was low activity, which if he believed was a problem he would bold him instead of shoot him since the goal would be to get gabe engaged

all the while he claimed to think gator was pretty wolfy

in a world where reason has any place, key and gator are often wolves

[OngBonga]

wuf it doesn't matter if we're 99% sure keyb is wolf. It's still better to be 100%, and we will be 100%. Fuck's sake read what I just posted, and absorb it.

lynch doobs

[wufwugy]

Look. This is a matter of logic.

If he's a wolf, then he becomes confirmed wolf from the living hot shot's pov when the other village hotshot dies, or from everyone's pov when both village hotshots die.

If he's a villager, he becomes confirmed when wolf hotshot dies, or when one village hotshot dies and he doesn't get shot.

We've just lost the bodyguard, who could confirm his alignment by claiming. Literally the least optimal thing we can do is to lynch keybored.

game is already over at that point

[Luco]

Dude is potentially confirmable. wuf don't act on emotion.

+v point

[JKDS]

Wuf, its possible key is a wolf who looked for any reason to shoot gabe. That isnt too farfetched. But when both the other hotshots out tomorrow, we have far more information to determine which one is a wolf.

[wufwugy]

wuf it doesn't matter if we're 99% sure keyb is wolf. It's still better to be 100%, and we will be 100%. Fuck's sake read what I just posted, and absorb it.

lynch doobs

this is not correct. the probability of getting confirmation before the game is over is very low. and without it, it forces key to be the final lynch

this works better as a play by you as a wolf with your wolf team than it does for the village

[Keith]

ong seems to be the ong from two games ago . lynch ong

[OngBonga]

keith is a wolf who knows I've figured out how to read him.

[JKDS]

Ong is like, confirmed villager at this point. We're not lynching him.

[OngBonga]

this is not correct. the probability of getting confirmation before the game is over is very low. and without it, it forces key to be the final lynch

this works better as a play by you as a wolf with your wolf team than it does for the village

Wolves will want keyb to die because he's either an outed wolf who is later gonna take a vig shot instead of a villager
, or a massive mislynch. You are wrong.

[wufwugy]

ong and jkds, you are simply wrong and you are both likely wolves together

the numbers dictate that if key is a wolf, lynching him tomorrow, if he is the only dead wolf by that time, cinches the wolf win even with just 3 left. this assumes all shooters use their powers, which they absolutely should, and that they dont hit wolves

if we get confirmation that key is the wolfhotshot, the village loses. lost lost lost lost lost. 100%.

frankly i want all of ong jkds baud and gator dead since theyre wolves who would have already figured this out in the den

[wufwugy]

Ong is like, confirmed villager at this point. We're not lynching him.

you have zero to back this. the last thing he looks like is confirmed. his numbers are not just specious, they're exactly what help the wolves win

[OngBonga]

I understand where wuf is coming from regarding the margin of error we have. Truth is if we lose on d2 then the game was too wolf sided. Whatever, I can take that defeat on the chin without caring. I'm playing assuming the game isn't broken and that we're still gonna be here d3.

[OngBonga]

wuf wolves need no help to win this. You're on another planet. Or a wolf, which I don't think.

[wufwugy]

it's hilarious that ong couldnt even see the ridiculousness of his claim that 100% is better than 99%

[OngBonga]

frankly i want all of ong jkds baud and gator dead since theyre wolves who would have already figured this out in the den

Read this back then tell me why you're a retard.

[Hoopy]

That's bad, very bad. We've lost a great villager and the bodyguard.

keybored is a wolf, he might post flippantly sometimes but he does not act that way when making decisions imo. This was a straight up assassination of gabe.

[OngBonga]

it's hilarious that ong couldnt even see the ridiculousness of his claim that 100% is better than 99%

It's not even close to 99%, I was making the point that 99% is still worse than the 100% we get later.

Today, we need to lynch a non-keybored wolf. Then it's game on.

[wufwugy]

I understand where wuf is coming from regarding the margin of error we have. Truth is if we lose on d2 then the game was too wolf sided. Whatever, I can take that defeat on the chin without caring. I'm playing assuming the game isn't broken and that we're still gonna be here d3.

as a villager you would have acknowledged the imba instead of pretending like it isnt imba

dont get me wrong, im not complaining. carnage favors wolves big time unless the village is given some pretty major powers. we knew this coming in. im assessing how we can best attempt to win in this situation

[wufwugy]

It's not even close to 99%, I was making the point that 99% is still worse than the 100% we get later.

Today, we need to lynch a non-keybored wolf. Then it's game on.

game on for a wolf cinch

[Luco]

key looks like wolf hotshot who thinks gabe is vil hotshot

Wolf hotshot hits vill hotshot, remaining vill hotshot either outs, or straight up blasts wolfie hotshot a new arsehole.

Think about it

[OngBonga]

as a villager you would have acknowledged the imba instead of pretending like it isnt imba

dont get me wrong, im not complaining. carnage favors wolves big time unless the village is given some pretty major powers. we knew this coming in. im assessing how we can best attempt to win in this situation

You're making incorrect assumptions about what villager ong does. Yet you're not making correct assumptions about what wolf ong doesn't do. Like play up until keybored's gabe kill in the manner I did.

[JKDS]

That's bad, very bad. We've lost a great villager and the bodyguard.

keybored is a wolf, he might post flippantly sometimes but he does not act that way when making decisions imo. This was a straight up assassination of gabe.

Doesnt he? He claimed seer last game as a villager. Regardless, ong is right. You can look at this and say Key is statistically 33% to be a wolf, since 1/3 of the hotshots are wolves. You can also say every other player in this game is statistically 33% to be a wolf, since 4/12 players are wolves. The guessing game of "did key do this as a wolf" is no different than any other guessing game, except we get more information if the other hot shots fire. If you really want him dead, you should be advocating for the other hotshots to fire, not for key's quick lynch.

All ong is saying, is that its still better to have the hot shots fire tomorrow. And it still is.

[wufwugy]

yesterday i almost posted that the best possible thing the wolves could do is have the hotshot kill their most dangerous target. but i didnt becuase i thought the value of entrapment was better than the value of trying to preempt and remove it as something wolves would do

if you go back to before key shot, and think about what gets the wolves a fantastic cinch win, it's having the wolfshot shoot and keeping him from being lynched

[Keybored]

Sorry old chaps...my bad! Never was very good with a gun anyway.
Alak, FUCK YEAH!
Ain't this more funner now??

RIP Gabe. I'm sure your 2 posts will live on in infamy.

I ain't no stinking snaggle tooth, so quit trying to mislynch me.
As soon as the other HS splodes, I'll be a lock villager.
So leave me be 'till then, ffs.

The wolves know I'm a V.V. now, so they just gotta wait till nightfall and it's lights out for me.
Them trying to pile on me in daylight don't make no sense.

[JKDS]

Wuf, pretend key is a villager hotshot. Just pretend. Are you saying he never shoots on day 1? Ever?

Because I completely disagree.

[wufwugy]

Wolf hotshot hits vill hotshot, remaining vill hotshot either outs, or straight up blasts wolfie hotshot a new arsehole.

Think about it

i see. that's not much of a concern though since the biggest mistake is not getting off the wolf shot. in your scenario, if the only dead wolf is the hotshot, it's 4v3 on d2. dream scenario for the wolves