Carnage before Christmas

[wufwugy]

Woah woah woah woah woah. No. Just no. "Shoot gabe, no one will notice or bat an eye." NO. that didnt happen.



Lynching a villager is also doomsday. Thats were we disagree. You have this 'factwolf" stuff you've been preaching for a few games now, but lynching a 'factwolf' who turns out to be a villager may well be a game loss. We cant just stop evaluating just because we found something we dont understand.

Wolves are found by finding inconsistencies between how a person would play as a villager, and how they would play as a wolf. Going against game theory doesnt mean dick, all that matters is how that person would play. (Ex. if daven urged for bigred's modkill, its pretty clear that its role neutral even if its antivillage gametheory).

So does it make sense for keybored to do this as a villager? Yes it does. We all thought he was in his 20s the first time he played, and were surprised to find out hes retired and old. Hes the type that would be itching to fire his gun, and looking for any reason to do so. Is this is first time as a special? It very well might be, I wasnt here when he joined in april. The point is, it is not inconsistent that he shot gabe. Most ppl when they are vigs shoot people. Its fun.

But It IS super obscure that a wolf would openly choose to shoot gabe day 1 though. It makes 0 sense, and opens them up to a risk where there wasnt one before. Put simply, its stupid. You'd have to assume they were deliberately playing in a -ev way, and they dont ever do this.

it is very inconsistent that he shot gabe since he didnt even think gabe was a wolf

it's super consistent with you being a wolf that you dont acknowledge this and that you go so far as to say that it would be stupid for the wolves to shoot gabe. better explanation is that all this hyper wolfy behavior from key (which you acknowledged yet are now acting like you didnt) means he's wolfing, and that since there are three vigs and gabe looked specially it was in wolves best interest to kill him before he could shoot

[baudib]

we should just make a rule that no shots are to be fired without village consensus, if someone goes off the reservation it's a death sentence

it's just a matter of deciding what the most +EV move is

[BankItDrew]

how about we form a decision committee who hears the arguments and decides

I nominate myself as the final decision maker. I'll be fair and just.

[OngBonga]

I nominate myself as the final decision maker. I'll be fair and just.

Nah wuf is doing it, but we're gonna do the opposite of what he says. It's in safe hands.

[Keith]

key ong jkds and one of bid/hoopy.

[OngBonga]

Jesus keith stop with the relentless attacks.

[OngBonga]

This is nothing like the keith that was attacking me when I was actually a wolf.

[OngBonga]

baudib is this the keith that was shitting all over us on d1 a couple of games back?

[BankItDrew]

i lold at key itching to shoot his gun because he's old

I lol'd irl too

[wufwugy]

let's just get this over with

this epic weaksauce you guys are using tells one of two things: (1) you're wolves and hopefully you get killed, (2) you're villagers using epic weaksauce logic and we're doomed


ong if you're a villager you have completely dropped the ball on mechanics. perhaps it's because you didnt bother trying to figure out what leaving key alive means, but it's more likely that you're just a wolf

[OngBonga]

let's just get this over with

this epic weaksauce you guys are using tells one of two things: (1) you're wolves and hopefully you get killed, (2) you're villagers using epic weaksauce logic and we're doomed


ong if you're a villager you have completely dropped the ball on mechanics. perhaps it's because you didnt bother trying to figure out what leaving key alive means, but it's more likely that you're just a wolf

I swear you're stupider than you used to be.

[baudib]

IDK I am not convinced that Keith is a wolf, he could be a villager who's just wrong.

[baudib]

but he seems to believe what he's saying.

in b4 "bushy tail + pointy teeth" comment, IMO

[wufwugy]

I swear you're stupider than you used to be.

you're the one who said over and over and over that key should be wait till can be confirmed, yet only after i pointed out that doing so would cinch the win for the wolves, you said "so then vig shouldnt shoot then"

you are always a wolf here. even if your pm said villager, you are posting as if you are on team wolf. i guess the difference between how i view the game and how others do is that i think alignment is about which team you're playing for, not which team your pm says you're on

[OngBonga]

Am I the only person who can read keith?

[OngBonga]

you are always a wolf here. even if your pm said villager, you are posting as if you are on team wolf.

Do you even realise that you say this to at least one villager every game?

[OngBonga]

This is nothing like the keith that was attacking me when I was actually a wolf.

This.

[wufwugy]

Do you even realise that you say this to at least one villager every game?

i'll say it every time somebody plays for team wolf

i'll say it because i think if villagers don't punish other players for playing on team wolf, we lose

[wufwugy]

Am I the only person who can read keith?

hey wolf, he has not posted enough for you to have a confident read on him like this

[OngBonga]

i'll say it every time somebody plays for team wolf

i'll say it because i think if villagers don't punish other players for playing on team wolf, we lose

You said it to daven last game, even though he was obvtown and you were playing like a wolf. You went crazy, I wish I could pinpoint when it happened.

[wufwugy]

ah one drawback i have is that we have data of ong deliberately maintaining a view that he does not believe to be correct. he has even said so. he never said that in ww, but did so in the commune

[OngBonga]

hey wolf, he has not posted enough for you to have a confident read on him like this

HAHAHAHA OH SWEET JESUS

If he had posted enough, then he'd be a villager. Keith is relentless when he thinks he's found a wolf. I feel like I'm swatting a fly away. This is not the same keith that was attacking me two games ago. He doesn't believe what he's saying here, not like when I was a wolf.

[JKDS]

We're wasting too much time arguing over non-role indicative opnions on mechanics, and not enough time learning peoples opinions on who is a wolf and who is a villager.

The "Wulfies gonna wuf wuf wuf wuf wuf" political party wants to lynch keyb. Go for it. Its clear your mind cant be changed.

The "Anti-keybortionist" party wants to lynch someone else. Lets get on that.

Ill trust your read on keith ong, but do you think hes a better lynch than dhubs? His attack on me is so unconvnetional for him, that i just dont believe hes villager. Hes usually so careful and conservative, but all he can do right now is talk about how i must be a wolf for asking him a question.

[OngBonga]

ah one drawback i have is that we have data of ong deliberately maintaining a view that he does not believe to be correct. he has even said so. he never said that in ww, but did so in the commune

what the fuck?

[wufwugy]

You said it to daven last game, even though he was obvtown and you were playing like a wolf. You went crazy, I wish I could pinpoint when it happened.

im sure you didnt read any of the postgame

for the reasons given, i think daven was a good lynch. why is it so enticing for people to rate the quality of their lynches on results? if we're playing like that then we're doomed to lose. the quality of the lynch is on the case for the lynch, not the flip

regardless there was one point made in the postgame that could have changed things that i hadnt seen and hadnt been pointed out in the game iirc

[wufwugy]

HAHAHAHA OH SWEET JESUS

If he had posted enough, then he'd be a villager. Keith is relentless when he thinks he's found a wolf. I feel like I'm swatting a fly away. This is not the same keith that was attacking me two games ago. He doesn't believe what he's saying here, not like when I was a wolf.

this read is incorrect. keith has been relentless as a wolf often. im not expressing an opinion on him atm

[OngBonga]

Ill trust your read on keith ong, but do you think hes a better lynch than dhubs? His attack on me is so unconvnetional for him, that i just dont believe hes villager. Hes usually so careful and conservative, but all he can do right now is talk about how i must be a wolf for asking him a question.

doobs is a gut read, I'm happy with it because you are, and if we're both villagers, wolves will have to worry that us voting together might be a problem for them, especially if we have influence.

keith is a meta read. I have a lot more faith in that based entirely off the fact that I'm under no pressure from him. It's so weak, like... he doesn't believe it. I prefer to lynch keith.

[wufwugy]

i guess im basically done

if you guys are wolves you have so much narrative power that we're not winning. if youre villagers i think you're maintaining irrational positions

[OngBonga]

i guess im basically done

if you guys are wolves you have so much narrative power that we're not winning. if youre villagers i think you're maintaining irrational positions

Well here's the irony -

If you're a wolf, I think you're playing an excellent game. If you're a villager, it's you who is maintaining an irrational position. I like that diplomatic way of putting it.

[BankItDrew]

ong, wuf, keith, and JKDS all seem sincere to me. You could all be villagers fighting over stupid shit.

JKDS is right in that we need to build wagons and roll with them.

MMM updated vote count?

Let's be honest - this game became waaaay more excited after keybored went all Leroy Jenkins.

[wufwugy]

Well here's the irony -

If you're a wolf, I think you're playing an excellent game. If you're a villager, it's you who is maintaining an irrational position. I like that diplomatic way of putting it.

says the guy who hasnt made a single move to acknowledge how wolfy key is and how leaving him alive only helps the wolves win. if we had your way since you first started defending key, the game would likely be over five minutes after d2 starts

[OngBonga]

ah one drawback i have is that we have data of ong deliberately maintaining a view that he does not believe to be correct. he has even said so. he never said that in ww, but did so in the commune

Can you clarify this please wuf, because you're bringing outside influence into the game, and I'm not even sure what you're getting at.

For my part, these are the non-ww two posts I have made at this site since the game started...

I bet it died.

My favourite is Human Planet. I watch that when I need my faith in humanity restored.

Why are you referring to my commune comments? Neither of these two can in any way be interpreted as game relevant.

[OngBonga]

says the guy who hasnt made a single move to acknowledge how wolfy key is and how leaving him alive only helps the wolves win. if we had your way since you first started defending key, the game would likely be over five minutes after d2 starts

Did you miss the bit where I said I agree with you?

[baudib]

lynch BID

[OngBonga]

nah

[wufwugy]

Did you miss the bit where I said I agree with you?

i did miss that. i also miss the part where you believe that you agree with me

[OngBonga]

Standard drew right now. Could be wolf but only a random chance imo.

[wufwugy]

Can you clarify this please wuf, because you're bringing outside influence into the game, and I'm not even sure what you're getting at.

For my part, these are the non-ww two posts I have made at this site since the game started...





Why are you referring to my commune comments? Neither of these two can in any way be interpreted as game relevant.

it was like eight months ago. you said sometimes you defend arguments you dont believe. why? because youre ongfuckingbonga

[OngBonga]

i did miss that. i also miss the part where you believe that you agree with me

I agree that keyb is wolfy. I don't agree we should lynch him today because if he's a wolf, then he should be shot by a village hotshot, and preferably not today.

[OngBonga]

it was like eight months ago. you said sometimes you defend arguments you dont believe. why? because youre ongfuckingbonga

Oh right, well whatever. Sorry.

You're wrong, as usual. I'm the opposite of what you think.

[wufwugy]

I agree that keyb is wolfy. I don't agree we should lynch him today because if he's a wolf, then he should be shot by a village hotshot, and preferably not today.

yep this is you not agreeing with me. agreeing with me would be acknowledging that if what you just said should happen happens, the wolves cinch their win

[OngBonga]

I don't care if the wolves win before d2 even starts If that happens, we laugh at how broken the game was. We have to assume there's gonna be at least a d3, otherwise we might as well not bother.

[wufwugy]

lynch BID

so was gabe right about both jkds and baud

im gonna shit my pants if it's key ong jkds baud. holy nutbutts

[BankItDrew]

I really hope ong and wuf are not the two players selected for Night chat.

[wufwugy]

I don't care if the wolves win before d2 even starts If that happens, we laugh at how broken the game was. We have to assume there's gonna be at least a d3, otherwise we might as well not bother.

we already know what level of balance or lack thereof the game has. you're pretending like we dont

the sad part is that this might just be you being incredibly lazy

[OngBonga]

I really hope ong and wuf are not the two players selected for Night chat.

Aw cmon that would be awesome.

[OngBonga]

we already know what level of balance or lack thereof the game has. you're pretending like we dont

the sad part is that this might just be you being incredibly lazy

It's not me being lazy. It's me not wanting to bitch about it. It's what it is. Get on with it.

[baudib]

dude getting to LOLMMM if we lose by D2 would kinda be awesome

[OngBonga]

Well it didn't take me long to catch up in the post count. To think I was trolling to the point of posting a cat.

[Hoopy]

We've got about 6 hours left.

I say we lynch dhuber and see what madness the night brings.

[baudib]

I thought this game was about soulreading.

with Gabe dead isn't Dhuber one of our best?

[MadMojoMonkey]

/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
<<< V O T E ~ C O U N T >>>
\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/

player (# votes) - who's voting for them {post count}

baudib (2) - BID {31}, rong {19}

dhubs (2) - Hoopy {21}, JKDS {34}
BID (1) - baud {49}
gator (1) - key {14}
JKDS (1) - dhubs {3}
keith (1) - ong {93}
key (1) - wuf {93}
ong (1) - keith {18}

novote (1) - gator {21}, Luco {19}


Day 1 ends in ~6 hours


***
OP has been updated with the win conditions for each team explicitely written out.

[wufwugy]

the bodyguard role is the only role i can remember that playing good makes you die. thats counter intuitive so im leery of that one for future use

ah shit they wolves knew he was the bodyguard. i remember when i saw this that it suggested gabe had put some deep thought into what the role means, which suggests he has the role since almost nobody does that unless they have the role.


not killing key asap is nutfuckinglow

[rong]

I got as far as well as 351, I can't follow any more, but abyone whi thinjs either ong or jkds is not following villager logic is the retard.

[wufwugy]

ah shit that means the vilhotshots can still operate during daytime if it's 4v4. it also means that a night at 4v4 with a nom that makes it 3v4 still isnt over if there is a hotshot left and the vig shoots a wolf

[BankItDrew]

I got as far as well as 351, I can't follow any more, but abyone whi thinjs either ong or jkds is not following villager logic is the retard.

go home rong, you're drunk

[wufwugy]

the win condition clarification changes a whole lot

what it doesnt change is how wolfy key is, but it does mean that it's possible to get confirmation of his role without losing

regardless, all the other lynches fucking suck imo

[baudib]

Rong why exactly are you voting for me again?

It's past the time for spite votes and lols.

[wufwugy]

rescind key

[Luco]

If keith is a wolf hes adjusted from last game. He's naming several people at a time in his conspiracies and hes less jovial.

I dont like a keybored lynch, basically if we mislynch today then as long as vig doesnt fire we're still in with a shot

lynch hoopy look at his posts on page 1 and his response to gabes death.

[baudib]

Luco did you weigh in on how to utilize shots

[wufwugy]

christ to have any reasonable assessment, id have to reread the entire thread with this new info in mind. im not sure i have the time since im focusing on other stuff the rest of the night

[wufwugy]

rescind key

[BankItDrew]

Rong why exactly are you voting for me again?

It's past the time for spite votes and lols.

I don't know about rong, but I originally voted for you because I love seeing you die before D2 nearly every game. That and your read on dhuber was weird.

I think you're a villager so rescind

lynch keybored

[BankItDrew]

lol wuf... i thought it was a good idea considering what keybored did made no sense

[baudib]

BID I don't believe for a second that you think my read on Dhuber in the 2nd post of the game was serious.

[BankItDrew]

BID I don't believe for a second that you think my read on Dhuber in the 2nd post of the game was serious.

I really do

[baudib]

...

wat

[wufwugy]

bold gator

[baudib]

so BID when I made like 30 other nonsensical complete troll posts after that you still thought I was being serious?

Even though it contradicts all known FTR WW facts?

like do you also think I don't know who Wufwugy is?

BID confirmed in the utterly worthless or wolf group

[baudib]

yeah I don't think Gator's a wolf.

[Keith]

why not get on Ong with me wuf . i'm off to bed now so will miss the end of day , along with most of the rest of the brits playing.This end of day time sucks.

[BankItDrew]

so BID when I made like 30 other nonsensical complete troll posts after that you still thought I was being serious?

Even though it contradicts all known FTR WW facts?

like do you also think I don't know who Wufwugy is?

BID confirmed in the utterly worthless or wolf group

1) I didn't think you made that many retarded posts

2) idk what facts you mean and I don't think it matters

3) no

4) Me being a villager isn't an option? There's a word or two to describe this sort of argument...

[wufwugy]

it's funny how almost everything i said is potentially nullified by the win conditions update

[baudib]

BID despite your reputation I don't actively think you're stupid.

When I say that I've never seen anyone claim vanillager before, especially Dhuber, HTF can you think it was serious.

I legit was straight trolling for 2 days.