Russians vs. Americans: A Werewolf Game for October 2015

[OngBonga]

Why have you abandoned the idea that he cannot just simply be wrong with hard headed confidence? It would make sense that he thinks he can read you if historically he does very well.

Why is he definitely a wolf?

He could simply be wrong. I think he's a wolf because it makes no sense for a villager who thinks I'm a wolf to jump onto the wagon that I started. It's not just his misread on me. It's what he does with that read. He's not applying his wolf read on me to his read on kami. Thus, he's lacking in village motivation, imo.

[BankItDrew]

My read of why kami is a wolf literally the opposite as to why I think ong is a wolf.

[Top Tier Tom]

Is there more to it than that? I don't find that particularly compelling. Maybe if you were spearheading a hard push on Kami he should consider that, but I don't usually think much about who my wolf suspect is voting for, especially in early game. Doing so is probably foolish, you haven't even flipped wolf yet, drawing conclusions about players you've interacted with before you even flip is... stupid? Unrealistic? Why do you think he SHOULD do that? Your reasoning sounds insincere to me.

[Top Tier Tom]

We haven't even had a lynch yet, how can you make determinations on whether you're soft busing or willing to actually see her get lynched, etc. before you've even had time to put your cards on the table?

[BankItDrew]

The fact that ong is saying things like "i think top tier is a villager" in the midst of this three-way convo is suspicious too.

[Top Tier Tom]

To put this simply: I now think Ong comes across as mostly reasonable but his evolution in response to Drew's pressure feels... off, not correct for a villager, more likely to come from a wolf because the mindset is wrong. Saying he's a lock wolf but not wanting to convince other people of that, not even really trying to convince me of that while saying "don't be so easily fooled by a wolf"; shying away from a confrontation when he (apparently) loves to argue seems more like a wolf who knows he'll just attract more negative attention to himself GG getting into a brawl rather than a villager who is willing to defend himself.

You don't both call someone who reads you well a wolf for reading you wolfy and then shy away from rebutting that, while still calling him a wolf... the transition / evolution feels totally wrong to me.

[Top Tier Tom]

Basically Ong I think your mistake here was calling Drew a wolf right off the bat, expecting Drew would thunderdome you and you were already cornered... rather than trying to just convince him he was wrong.

The stance you took implicitly reveals that you know he's right about you being a wolf and couldn't talk him out of it; your mindset is a guilty one.

[OngBonga]

Is there more to it than that? I don't find that particularly compelling. Maybe if you were spearheading a hard push on Kami he should consider that, but I don't usually think much about who my wolf suspect is voting for, especially in early game. Doing so is probably foolish, you haven't even flipped wolf yet, drawing conclusions about players you've interacted with before you even flip is... stupid? Unrealistic? Why do you think he SHOULD do that? Your reasoning sounds insincere to me.

Well I'm not particularly keen on the kami lynch given my read on drew. I don't know drew's alignment, yet I will still factor in what I think that is into my reads on other people.

I can't help it if you don't find it compelling. I can't help it if you're being influenced by someone who tells you that blending in and fence sitting is part of my wolf game, when I'm doing exactly the opposite of that.

[NightGizmo]

The way this is worded is pinging me.

You've bolded her but haven't directly called her wolfy, just alluded to it. And that last sentence just smells like giving yourself an out for later.

It's early D1 and I don't have any easy reads. I have no idea whether Kami is a wolf or not, but based on her style of play she seems like she's more of a liability to the village regardless of her team. You said it yourself later on:

Actually I simply meant that she's not helping her team regardless of role.

So I'm wolfy when saying it but you're not? Or is it because I bolded her for that reason? If I'm going to bold someone early, it will be someone that would be a major problem to the village in later parts of the game. If I was a wolf and Kami was a villager, I'd want to keep her in the game.

[OngBonga]

Basically Ong I think your mistake here was calling Drew a wolf right off the bat, expecting Drew would thunderdome you and you were already cornered... rather than trying to just convince him he was wrong.

The stance you took implicitly reveals that you know he's right about you being a wolf and couldn't talk him out of it; your mindset is a guilty one.

Well you'll be proven wrong in due course. Hopefully not today.

[Top Tier Tom]

Well I'm not particularly keen on the kami lynch given my read on drew. I don't know drew's alignment, yet I will still factor in what I think that is into my reads on other people.

I can't help it if you don't find it compelling. I can't help it if you're being influenced by someone who tells you that blending in and fence sitting is part of my wolf game, when I'm doing exactly the opposite of that.

Okay: hit me again with your current reads and why you have them. Talk me into what you want me to see in this gamestate.

[OngBonga]

Okay: hit me again with your current reads and why you have them. Talk me into what you want me to see in this gamestate.

drew - claims soulread wolf read on me, doesn't vote for me, jumps on the wagon I started. How is that villagery?

luco - his tone changed when I called him out of the kami wincon thing. That could be a slip.

kami - she's not looking great, but given my read on drew, I think she's a villager. If I'm wrong about drew, all eyes on kami again.

rilla - bang in his wolf range. When he's villager, he drives the conversation and hunts like a beast. When he's wolf, he freezes up. So far so bad.

I have tom and mojo as my strongest villager leans.

Everyone else is more or less null, or not strong enough a lean to be noteworthy at least.

[NightGizmo]

This is a first -- I agree with Ong on day 1. His conversation with Luco regarding Kami and Rilla basically followed exactly what I was thinking when I was catching up on the thread. Not sure about the drew stuff -- drew's style has changed a ton since I last played, and there is some metagame stuff happening between them that I'm not familiar with. But I also think that Tom is very likely a villager.

I still don't have a strong enough feeling about Rilla to switch my vote (where is he?), but he's my second choice.

[Luco]

It's early D1 and I don't have any easy reads. I have no idea whether Kami is a wolf or not, but based on her style of play she seems like she's more of a liability to the village regardless of her team. You said it yourself later on:



So I'm wolfy when saying it but you're not? Or is it because I bolded her for that reason? If I'm going to bold someone early, it will be someone that would be a major problem to the village in later parts of the game. If I was a wolf and Kami was a villager, I'd want to keep her in the game.

Decent reply. It was in the delivery of your post, its one thats comfortably in your wolf range.

So youve picked out a post of mine that shows youve read through, tell me where you're at

[Top Tier Tom]

drew - claims soulread wolf read on me, doesn't vote for me, jumps on the wagon I started. How is that villagery?

luco - his tone changed when I called him out of the kami wincon thing. That could be a slip.

kami - she's not looking great, but given my read on drew, I think she's a villager. If I'm wrong about drew, all eyes on kami again.

rilla - bang in his wolf range. When he's villager, he drives the conversation and hunts like a beast. When he's wolf, he freezes up. So far so bad.

I have tom and mojo as my strongest villager leans.

Everyone else is more or less null, or not strong enough a lean to be noteworthy at least.

Why'd you address the audience rather than me directly?

[OngBonga]

Why'd you address the audience rather than me directly?

I deleted "you" and replaced it with "tom" for the benefit of everyone. If it gets quoted later, people don't have to ask who I was talking to. Why is this even a problem? Now it's starting to feel like you're just trying to find faults where there are none.

[Top Tier Tom]

I deleted "you" and replaced it with "tom" for the benefit of everyone. If it gets quoted later, people don't have to ask who I was talking to. Why is this even a problem? Now it's starting to feel like you're just trying to find faults where there are none.

It's another in a series of "that's not what I'd expect a villager to do" moments with you. I want you to make a compelling argument as to why I should believe and follow you, just as Drew did when I asked him to elaborate on his suspicions of you.

[NightGizmo]

Rilla -- when I first read his two posts, I had a feeling that it was wolfy -- nothing concrete, but it just kind of felt wrong. When I last played, he started playing more quiet and cryptic as a villager so he could balance that against his wolf game, so I wasn't sure of my read. So I checked last game to see if he played. As Ong pointed out, he was fairly active and did a strong job of pushing the village on D1 (as a villager). So that info strengthens my thoughts on Rilla.

Kami -- she hasn't bothered to defend herself, and based on her current posts and what I read from last game, even if she does pop in it will just be to insult anyone that bolded her and spew out nonsense. Wolfy? No clue. Liability to the village? Certainly.

Luco -- I read through his posts again, aside from calling me out for something that he later said himself, nothing concrete.

Ong -- I like his analysis and logic, although I'm not sold on the drew thing, mainly because I remember drew as being very unpredictable. Seems villagery.

Tom -- he's active, his conversation has a lot of content -- he seems the most likely to be a villager.

We still have a lot of inactives and there are bound to be some wolves in that group. The hardest thing about being a wolf is typing up content.

[Luco]

Rilla -- when I first read his two posts, I had a feeling that it was wolfy -- nothing concrete, but it just kind of felt wrong. When I last played, he started playing more quiet and cryptic as a villager so he could balance that against his wolf game, so I wasn't sure of my read. So I checked last game to see if he played. As Ong pointed out, he was fairly active and did a strong job of pushing the village on D1 (as a villager). So that info strengthens my thoughts on Rilla.

Kami -- she hasn't bothered to defend herself, and based on her current posts and what I read from last game, even if she does pop in it will just be to insult anyone that bolded her and spew out nonsense. Wolfy? No clue. Liability to the village? Certainly.

Luco -- I read through his posts again, aside from calling me out for something that he later said himself, nothing concrete.

Ong -- I like his analysis and logic, although I'm not sold on the drew thing, mainly because I remember drew as being very unpredictable. Seems villagery.

Tom -- he's active, his conversation has a lot of content -- he seems the most likely to be a villager.

We still have a lot of inactives and there are bound to be some wolves in that group. The hardest thing about being a wolf is typing up content.

I dont think rilla has been wolf since the game where it was you him hoopy and ong and courtiee was seer.

You bussed the shit out of rilla that game

[Luco]

Rilla -- when I first read his two posts, I had a feeling that it was wolfy -- nothing concrete, but it just kind of felt wrong. When I last played, he started playing more quiet and cryptic as a villager so he could balance that against his wolf game, so I wasn't sure of my read. So I checked last game to see if he played. As Ong pointed out, he was fairly active and did a strong job of pushing the village on D1 (as a villager). So that info strengthens my thoughts on Rilla.

Kami -- she hasn't bothered to defend herself, and based on her current posts and what I read from last game, even if she does pop in it will just be to insult anyone that bolded her and spew out nonsense. Wolfy? No clue. Liability to the village? Certainly.

Luco -- I read through his posts again, aside from calling me out for something that he later said himself, nothing concrete.

Ong -- I like his analysis and logic, although I'm not sold on the drew thing, mainly because I remember drew as being very unpredictable. Seems villagery.

Tom -- he's active, his conversation has a lot of content -- he seems the most likely to be a villager.

We still have a lot of inactives and there are bound to be some wolves in that group. The hardest thing about being a wolf is typing up content.

I like this post too.

Which two rilla posts pinged you? What did you think of his wuf vote justification?

[baudib]

MIRACLE ON ICE

"11 seconds, you've got 10 seconds, the countdown going on right now! Morrow, up to Silk. Five seconds left in the game. Do you believe in miracles?! YES!!!"

Feb. 22, 1980. The American Olympic hockey team defeats the powerful Soviets 4-3 at Lake Placid, N.Y., in the greatest upset in sports history.

[OngBonga]

It's another in a series of "that's not what I'd expect a villager to do" moments with you. I want you to make a compelling argument as to why I should believe and follow you, just as Drew did when I asked him to elaborate on his suspicions of you.

I don't think you should believe me and follow me. I think you should make your own mind up. You're asking me to compete with drew by making compelling arguments? How is drew's argument compelling? He tells you than my wolf tells are trying to blend in and sitting on the fence. Is that what you think I'm doing here? Is that what you think drew thinks I'm doing? I'm not particularly interested in follow me or follow drew. Follow yourself.

[OngBonga]

I dont think rilla has been wolf since the game where it was you him hoopy and ong and courtiee was seer.

You bussed the shit out of rilla that game

rilla has been a wolf since, once again with me. I bussed the shit out of him then.

Thanks for reminding me of the courtie seer game. Fuck that game sucked.

[Top Tier Tom]

I don't think you should believe me and follow me. I think you should make your own mind up. You're asking me to compete with drew by making compelling arguments? How is drew's argument compelling? He tells you than my wolf tells are trying to blend in and sitting on the fence. Is that what you think I'm doing here? Is that what you think drew thinks I'm doing? I'm not particularly interested in follow me or follow drew. Follow yourself.

Am I not being clear enough? What I wanted to see was some passion, some conviction, some chutzpah. Drew had it: the moment I asked him for more info he gleefully followed up and told me why he thinks you're a wolf. That's what villagers naturally want to do: be right and convince others that they're right, too. I didn't get the same vibe from you despite you saying more than once that Drew is definitely a wolf. Combine that with what I saw as a weird or unnatural series of responses to Drew's pressure on you and I'm not seeing your behaviors today as particularly villagery. Your last list post also just seem bad. I'm not a fan of "if Drew flips villa, all eyes on Kami" -- it's way too early to be ruling out certain people as not-wolves based on suspicions of someone being a wolf. Ever heard of busing? We haven't seen any flips yet regardless. I don't know, maybe you just had a bad morning or something today, but I'm skeptical.

[NightGizmo]

I like this post too.

Which two rilla posts pinged you? What did you think of his wuf vote justification?

Oops, I thought he only had the two posts about Wuf. His other ones are very forgettable.

On their own, his wuf vote+justification posts aren't that damning. But the fact that he has basically shut down since then makes me think he's wolfy.

[OngBonga]

I've explained why I don't think drew and kami are wolves together. I know what bussing is. Do you know what a chainsaw defence is? Because if drew and kami are buddies, then drew is both bussing her and defending her by attacking me, all in one post.

I'm sorry I'm lacking in the passion and glee that drew has. I'm also sorry that these seem to be alignment indicative tells to you, because imo it's clouding your judgement of this situation.

[a500lbgorilla]

I was at work.

[OngBonga]

Sup rilla.

You got half an hour to find the wolves.

[a500lbgorilla]

Rilla -- when I first read his two posts, I had a feeling that it was wolfy -- nothing concrete, but it just kind of felt wrong. When I last played, he started playing more quiet and cryptic as a villager so he could balance that against his wolf game, so I wasn't sure of my read. So I checked last game to see if he played. As Ong pointed out, he was fairly active and did a strong job of pushing the village on D1 (as a villager). So that info strengthens my thoughts on Rilla.

Kami -- she hasn't bothered to defend herself, and based on her current posts and what I read from last game, even if she does pop in it will just be to insult anyone that bolded her and spew out nonsense. Wolfy? No clue. Liability to the village? Certainly.

Luco -- I read through his posts again, aside from calling me out for something that he later said himself, nothing concrete.

Ong -- I like his analysis and logic, although I'm not sold on the drew thing, mainly because I remember drew as being very unpredictable. Seems villagery.

Tom -- he's active, his conversation has a lot of content -- he seems the most likely to be a villager.

We still have a lot of inactives and there are bound to be some wolves in that group. The hardest thing about being a wolf is typing up content.

Take a slice at wuf, gabe

[a500lbgorilla]

Sup rilla.

You got half an hour to find the wolves.

The same thing happened with the last game that started on a Monday. Baudib rode me hard for being a step behind.

[Luco]

gogogo rilla

[a500lbgorilla]

I've explained why I don't think drew and kami are wolves together.

Why's that again?

[TheBrokenATM]

Sup boys

[OngBonga]

Why's that again?

bussing + chainsaw defence in same post doesn't make sense. If drew and kami are both wolves, why is he bussing kami while attacking the person who started the wagon?

[a500lbgorilla]

Who gives a shit about Kami? She's noise at this point.

[Top Tier Tom]

Who gives a shit about Kami? She's noise at this point.

What do you propose?

[a500lbgorilla]

Propose about?

[Top Tier Tom]

Propose about?

What we should do today.

[a500lbgorilla]

Yeah fair enough re: gator being subbed in as a replacement.

rescind
lynch kami

Gator is usually a solid player (although hasn't been top notch as of late). Still, would be a dramatic improvement of bigred any day of the week.

Also, ong is a wolf. This is 100% a tone read.

Where'd this read come from?

[a500lbgorilla]

What we should do today.

I gotta meet a village before I'll know who to kill.

[Top Tier Tom]

I gotta meet a village before I'll know who to kill.

People were saying you're usually a gung-ho sort of player.

[Beck Novo]

hi

i have some catching up to do

[Beck Novo]

Sup boys

@Tom

Does BATM pull this kind of shit often? The pop-in, pop-out shtick.

[a500lbgorilla]

Ok

[a500lbgorilla]

@Tom

Does BATM pull this kind of shit often? The pop-in, pop-out shtick.

He's done it twice so far. Before he just came in to sing on about Kami and then left.

[Top Tier Tom]

@Tom

Does BATM pull this kind of shit often? The pop-in, pop-out shtick.

Probably. Though I would say he's not being particularly helpful. Null, maybe slightly wolfy

[Beck Novo]

Also, lets not rush to day 2. Sure, we get to shoot peoples, but Id rather we lynch someone for being wolfy than for being whatever it is you guys are up in arms about.

Who is rushing to D2? This game has still barely even started, there are still several players who have yet to post. And many more that have posted but haven't posted anything meaningful.

I ask because this feels like you're feigning concern for the village's well-being. Especially when your vote was for someone who isn't the most likely to be a wolf based on what's happened so far.

[Beck Novo]

He's done it twice so far. Before he just came in to sing on about Kami and then left.

So what do you have to make of it? You're telling me something I already know.

And thanks, Tom.

[Top Tier Tom]

Lynch JKDS

[Beck Novo]

Who is BigRed? And why are some of you concerned about him enough to vote for him?

[a500lbgorilla]

So what do you have to make of it? You're telling me something I already know.

And thanks, Tom.

I like to look for posts that can only be made by villagers and he's made precisely 0.

[Beck Novo]

i think your logic is valid and well stated (including your previous posts) but i disagree with it

wuf's reasoning for bigred is pretty legit but i'm not voting for either of them



also- N0: Top Tier Tom v

Yeah, but it doesn't feel legitimate at all. That BigRed guy hasn't even entered the thread yet, has he? So how is that fair? Looking for more from you in general, gabe.

[Top Tier Tom]

I like to look for posts that can only be made by villagers and he's made precisely 0.

Who has?

[Beck Novo]

Lynch JKDS

[a500lbgorilla]

Who has?

Broken ATM.

[a500lbgorilla]

Who has?

Oh, who has made posts that only a villager could make? You had 2 during your 3 way with OB and BID. Luco had one from earlier.

[Top Tier Tom]

Oh, who has made posts that only a villager could make? You had 2 during your 3 way with OB and BID. Luco had one from earlier.

Interesting. Thanks.

[Beck Novo]

Oh, who has made posts that only a villager could make? You had 2 during your 3 way with OB and BID. Luco had one from earlier.

Can you point out Luco's for me?

[BankItDrew]

Where'd this read come from?

Remember last game when I called kami 'bigred 2.0'? Yeah that. I remember FTR killing me off every D1 because of my shat play, so now that I'm trying to be one of the more active players - I want to sweep the garbage under the rug.

Bigred is crap, I'd be thrilled with a lynch there for that very reason.
I'd be satisfied with a kami lynch for the same reason - I'm yet to see much of a difference between the two.

[Beck Novo]

I feel like I'm baudib, bickering with ong and flooding the thread. The only thing is that I'm actually confident in my read. I apologize to the village if I'm wrong and this is just a bunch of crap being spewed, ultimately hurting the village.

If you're confident in your read then why bother apologizing? And even if you are wrong, how could this ultimately hurt us? It seems like a fine back-and-forth.

[BankItDrew]

Who is rushing to D2? This game has still barely even started, there are still several players who have yet to post. And many more that have posted but haven't posted anything meaningful.

I ask because this feels like you're feigning concern for the village's well-being. Especially when your vote was for someone who isn't the most likely to be a wolf based on what's happened so far.

+1 to this

I've been guilty of rushing to D2 in the past as both a villager and a wolf, because I thought D1 was sorta pointless. I've changed my stance on that though.

I mainly want to give the inactives ample opportunity to contribute.

[Beck Novo]

the poisoner stuff is a pretty cool way for us to force people to say what they think

How exactly does this work? I'm unfamiliar with the Poisoner role; are they told that they've been poisoned?

[BankItDrew]

Who is BigRed? And why are some of you concerned about him enough to vote for him?

He's dead weight, typically.

I've always believed that lynching dead weight early was +EV

[Luco]

Can you point out Luco's for me?

I would also like to see this.

Also, dont forget rascal promised us a $uper $ecret wolf tell on me

[Beck Novo]

I mainly want to give the inactives ample opportunity to contribute.

But you're okay with lynching BigRed?

[Top Tier Tom]

How exactly does this work? I'm unfamiliar with the Poisoner role; are they told that they've been poisoned?

Yeah; it's announced to the thread by the mod when day begins. Two people are poisoned, the thread discusses which should be healed. Healer submits PM in private. Preferably one is a wolf. Drives some discussion regardless.

[BankItDrew]

If you're confident in your read then why bother apologizing? And even if you are wrong, how could this ultimately hurt us? It seems like a fine back-and-forth.

You're 100% right. I was simply guilty of talking out loud.

[Beck Novo]

He's dead weight, typically.

I've always believed that lynching dead weight early was +EV

I don't really disagree, but if this is all you or anyone else is going to contribute then you're just as much dead weight.

What're your thoughts on gabe and Gizmo?

[BankItDrew]

But you're okay with lynching BigRed?

I rescinded my vote on bigred for two reasons:
1) Go with my guy on ong
2) Give inactives a chance to post

That being said, I think there's a <5% chance bigred contributes anything of significance. Which is why I'd be content with lynching him, even if he's a villager.

[Beck Novo]

Yeah; it's announced to the thread by the mod when day begins. Two people are poisoned, the thread discusses which should be healed. Healer submits PM in private. Preferably one is a wolf. Drives some discussion regardless.

That's sweet.

Yes, preferably one is a wolf. But at least one is always a villager, correct?

[BankItDrew]

I don't really disagree, but if this is all you or anyone else is going to contribute then you're just as much dead weight.

What're your thoughts on gabe and Gizmo?

Gabe is usually much more active with a very good content:quality ratio. Correct me if I'm wrong but I think he mentioned being afk for much of D1. If I'm wrong in that - then gabe is odd this game.

Night Gizmo I used to play with, maybe two years ago. So I've forgotten any meta but I will say that I literally can't think of anything off the top of my head that I disagree with him on in this game yet.

[Beck Novo]

I rescinded my vote on bigred for two reasons:
1) Go with my guy on ong
2) Give inactives a chance to post

That being said, I think there's a <5% chance bigred contributes anything of significance. Which is why I'd be content with lynching him, even if he's a villager.

So is his general lack of contribution alignment indicative in any way? I'm getting the feeling that it's not, but still. I hate the idea of lynching someone just 'cause. I want to lynch wolves. But I also want to lynch the wolf that's going to provide us the most information once s/he flips.

[Top Tier Tom]

That's sweet.

Yes, preferably one is a wolf. But at least one is always a villager, correct?

Correct, as long as wolves have poisoner still

[BankItDrew]

So is his general lack of contribution alignment indicative in any way? I'm getting the feeling that it's not, but still. I hate the idea of lynching someone just 'cause. I want to lynch wolves. But I also want to lynch the wolf that's going to provide us the most information once s/he flips.

Bigred doesn't survive late into games often, when he does though, he still doesn't do much at all. One game he made it to a 2v1 spot as a villager and ended up picking the correct player to lynch but... 50/50 right?

His early afk stuff is never role indicative of anything other than being typical bigred.

[Luco]

I rescinded my vote on bigred for two reasons:
1) Go with my guy on ong
2) Give inactives a chance to post

That being said, I think there's a <5% chance bigred contributes anything of significance. Which is why I'd be content with lynching him, even if he's a villager.

I thought you rescinded bigred because of the potential substitute?