Polygamist Werewolf

[wufwugy]

if the first part is read as individual percentages , its perfectly logical to read the next sentence as being individually as well.Its also vague as to what you mean by the next sentence as well. are you saying that the 10% is too high for the three of them?if so and you cut it in half to 5% then you are more or less saying that the chance of all three being wolves is the same as any random three players being wolves together.

yeah i see how you can misunderstand what i said.

i said that i think all three are on the same wolf team ten percent of the time. that's high to me given how many different combinations there are

[OngBonga]

why?


I'm going to head out bc I need to get away from the screen, I give my partner full blessings for outing us, I think it's the right way to go

Because boog took a lunge at gabe right off the bat. That's not wolf on wolf. If keith is a wolf, then so is gabe, and boog isn't. Perhaps boog is a wolf, in which case gabe and keith are not. That's how I see it. It would be very reckless of boog as a wolf to lunge at a fellow wolf like that in such a format. I don't see gabe and boog being wolf buddies at all. One or the other, or perhaps even both villagers. But never both wolves.

[wufwugy]

rescind keith

[wufwugy]

im going to wait and let my partner out us

[aubreymcfate]

that makes sense, for some reason i interpreted it as something predicated on you thinking gabe wasn't wolfy after his post..

i feel like boog is wolfier than gabe tho but at this point i just don't know, maybe my gut feeling about gabe in the beginning was right and i need to come full circle

ok getting fresh air for real now, be back later tonight

[OngBonga]

I agree boog is wolfier, but that implies keith is a villager. It now looks like boog and keith are w/v or v/v, but not w/w.

[wufwugy]

ong your assessment of boog is good but im biased the other way in that instead of keith's wolfiness reducing boog's, i think boog's wolfiness reduces keith's.

[OngBonga]

ong your assessment of boog is good but im biased the other way in that instead of keith's wolfiness reducing boog's, i think boog's wolfiness reduces keith's.

I'd agree with this if we were talking only about keith and boog, but gabe is a factor here too. Boog is the wolfiest of the three, but there's two people I have thought are wolfy who are now confirmed buddies. Much depends on who boog is paired with, that might tip the balance once more.

[wufwugy]

good point

[wufwugy]

gabe isnt wolfy to me tho

[OngBonga]

He's a bit wolfy to me. Not as much as boog or keith. Well, he's exactly as wolfy as keith now. But you know what I mean.

I really don't like him parking his vote on me just because we disagree about claiming. I think it's potentially wolfy of him to take his position so strongly, but I at least recognise he could be a villager who just has a different opinion to me on the matter. I'm not prepared to base a wolf read on that difference alone. But he seems to be willing to. That's what concerns me the most with gabe.

[wufwugy]

i agree that that type of thing may be irrational, but it strikes me as villy irrationality more than wolfy irrationality. im not saying this to defend gabe, but more that im interested to know his role after the game to see if my reads on him are correct. the reads are specific and substantive, and id like them to also be reliable.

[wufwugy]

what i dont see is gabe taking point like this as a wolf. i mean, it would be smart to, as it's smart to do unpopular things as a wolf if you are confident you can get away with them, but that's a rarity.

[BankItDrew]

Aubrey is flying up my wolfdar

I was thinking the opposite.

[lilrascal]

Uhhhhhhh defensive much? I wasn't implying that you were doing anything "sinister" I was just correcting your mistake because, Idk, I like correct information? And thought we would all appreciate it? If I thought your mistake reflected badly on you I would have said something.

I do think this defensiveness reflects badly on you though.

On second thought I can kinda see how maybe it seemed like I was calling you out for being shady. Either way that wasn't my intent, I was just super tired and trying to point out discrepancies where I saw them. It was obvious to me that you and ong just got confused bc of vote count confusion.

Honestly, even though I can see where lilrascal is coming from, his response seems overblown. Does anyone else find that a little off? Only my partner can truly judge (since they know I'm not bullshitting) and obviously can't answer openly just yet, but I'd like to throw this out there so they can think about it.

fwiw when I review rascal's earlier posts on this page they seem villagery to me, particularly his back and forth with wuf about gabe (whether gabe was "solvey" or not) that seemed like authentic villager rapport

in the beginning of the game my wolves were: keith hoopy rilla gator

Rilla was there originally bc of how little he posted (actually when I came up with that he hadn't posted at all) and he didn't post much last game when we were wolves, so it felt characteristic. it also fit into the whole framework i had in my head at the time of who was villager and who was wolf, but I don't have a particularly strong wolf read on him

Perhaps gator will always seem wolfy to me since we were very closely wolfing together a couple years ago and I remember his style, but I dunno, his original gabe lynch didn't sit well with me at all

I could see gabe and/or boog being wolves too but I'd need to reread thread to develop stronger reads on that, gabe's wolf game might be so good that he swayed me


I also think it's strange that Rascal wanted us to hold off on bolding boog bc like you said ong, majority is at 7, and besides we should want a wagon to be somewhat dominant so we can see how that affects people's behavior. But for the record, I truly don't think he had ulterior motives when he made the vote count mistake, wolf or not

This reminds me of the last game that you played, where you were a wolf. You're being very wishy-washy. It's like you're trying to straddle the fence and not take a stance, which is a wolfy trait.

[lilrascal]

I agree with your rilla assessment.

reread a bit, refreshed my memory on page 2, the whole thing with boog being illogical (this post by ong pretty much sums up what i'm referencing, the whole back and forth is on that page tho)

yeah I'm good with a boog lynch for the time being

rescind keith

lynch boog


I totally think Keith is a wolf but it's not a productive wagon

You cast shade on me and then agree with my top 2 wolf candidates.

[lilrascal]

so we need to out partners then? this thread is going fucking nowhere

whoa you answered my question before i asked it, we're so *nsync

anyway, ok fair enough, i'm still torn on what advantage outing actually gives the wolves, i'm not so sure it does and am probably ok with outing

The advantage this gives the wolves is to target a team that is on the villas wolfy lists. The only information that the village has that the wolves don't is who our partners are.

As has been stated previously, I think this information should be kept until closer to EOD.

[lilrascal]

boog looks wolf for some brow scrunchy reasons that have been pointed out by others. keith because cmon he's about as under the fray as possible. hoopy because hoopy is playing wolf hoopy. problem is that's also super busy v hoopy. rascal is just giving me vibes.

i vote for outing partners. at this point i dont even care if it's "bad". thread is dead.

LOL. I think you've said this in almost every game we've played together.

[lilrascal]

I'd agree with this if we were talking only about keith and boog, but gabe is a factor here too. Boog is the wolfiest of the three, but there's two people I have thought are wolfy who are now confirmed buddies. Much depends on who boog is paired with, that might tip the balance once more.

I find myself agreeing with a lot that Ong is saying, which may be a first for me.

[lilrascal]

gabe isnt wolfy to me tho

I still don't see where you're coming from with regards to gabe.

He's a bit wolfy to me. Not as much as boog or keith. Well, he's exactly as wolfy as keith now. But you know what I mean.

I really don't like him parking his vote on me just because we disagree about claiming. I think it's potentially wolfy of him to take his position so strongly, but I at least recognise he could be a villager who just has a different opinion to me on the matter. I'm not prepared to base a wolf read on that difference alone. But he seems to be willing to. That's what concerns me the most with gabe.

Ong, I get the same feeling from gabe for different reasons obviously since he wasn't voting me. Gabe seems to be trying to force reads that just aren't there.

[lilrascal]

i agree that that type of thing may be irrational, but it strikes me as villy irrationality more than wolfy irrationality. im not saying this to defend gabe, but more that im interested to know his role after the game to see if my reads on him are correct. the reads are specific and substantive, and id like them to also be reliable.

what i dont see is gabe taking point like this as a wolf. i mean, it would be smart to, as it's smart to do unpopular things as a wolf if you are confident you can get away with them, but that's a rarity.

But, it does seem like you're defending gabe and have been since IRL yesterday.

[lilrascal]

It's been a long week, I'll be around some to interact, but I plan on rereading the thread on Saturday.

[BankItDrew]

I find myself agreeing with a lot that Ong is saying, which may be a first for me.

You're not the only one. I find myself agreeing with him a lot too, which is partly why I have him firmly in my villager camp.

I don't see that wolfy thing you see in aubrey though. I'm leaning villager on her because she sounds authentic. Her posts don't seem to be reviewed or edited or thought out many times. They seem more typed out immediately after a thought arises.

[lilrascal]

i agree that that type of thing may be irrational, but it strikes me as villy irrationality more than wolfy irrationality. im not saying this to defend gabe, but more that im interested to know his role after the game to see if my reads on him are correct. the reads are specific and substantive, and id like them to also be reliable.

You're not the only one. I find myself agreeing with him a lot too, which is partly why I have him firmly in my villager camp.

I don't see that wolfy thing you see in aubrey though. I'm leaning villager on her because she sounds authentic. Her posts don't seem to be reviewed or edited or thought out many times. They seem more typed out immediately after a thought arises.

I may be reading more into what she's said about me and IMO casting shade on me, knowing I'm villa. That's why I plan on doing a reread on Saturday.

[lilrascal]

First quote didn't belong in that reply. This MQ thing is frustrating. :sigh:

[wufwugy]

but she didnt cast shade on you.

rascal moving up the wolfy ladder

[BankItDrew]

I just assumed she did because rascal said she did.

Boog and rascal are my top two wolf candidates.

[wufwugy]

actually i dont know if this makes rascal wolfy. ive thought he's super wolfy times when he was v

[lilrascal]

but she didnt cast shade on you.

rascal moving up the wolfy ladder

That's the way I took it and then she even stated how she understood how I took it that way. And then in her next post she changes again. I quoted her progression in #315. Her changing her stance, especially when (gator, I think) called her wolfy for it is what pings me.

[BankItDrew]

actually i dont know if this makes rascal wolfy. ive thought he's super wolfy times when he was v

I may have monsters under my bed. The first couple of games I played with rascal, he looked like a lock villager to me. I claimed he was lock villager multiple times.

However, I was wrong on both accounts.

[lilrascal]

I just assumed she did because rascal said she did.

Boog and rascal are my top two wolf candidates.

That doesn't make sense, because I've been saying that boog is my top wolf candidate and who I would vote, but didn't want to get to close to MAJ.

[lilrascal]

I may have monsters under my bed. The first couple of games I played with rascal, he looked like a lock villager to me. I claimed he was lock villager multiple times.

However, I was wrong on both accounts.

I've only wolfed one game here, so you couldn't have been wrong multiple times.

[a500lbgorilla]

{Wufwugy BID Lilrascal Keith Gabe Ongbonga Rilla Hoopy Boog Supermonkeyface aubrey Gator}
{Wufwugy BID Lilrascal Keith Gabe Ongbonga Rilla Hoopy Boog Supermonkeyface aubrey}
{Wufwugy BID Lilrascal Keith Gabe Ongbonga Rilla Hoopy Boog Supermonkeyface}
{Wufwugy BID Lilrascal Keith Gabe Ongbonga Rilla Hoopy Boog}
{Wufwugy BID Lilrascal Keith Gabe Ongbonga Hoopy Boog}
{Wufwugy BID Lilrascal Keith Gabe Hoopy Boog}
{Wufwugy BID Keith Gabe Hoopy Boog}
{Wufwugy Keith Gabe Hoopy Boog}
{Keith Gabe Hoopy Boog}

[wufwugy]

Lynch Wuf

This vote for a non poster and follow on posts just make no sense.

gotcha.

everybody go back to 114. why would he describe my three posts as "making no sense"? they make all the sense in the world. i was having fun. rascal knows what goofing around looks like. is him seemingly not knowing that i was goofing around twtbaw or a wolf trying to make a case where there isnt one?

rascal

[BankItDrew]

That doesn't make sense, because I've been saying that boog is my top wolf candidate and who I would vote, but didn't want to get to close to MAJ.

This is just more proof that I didn't read everything.

[BankItDrew]

I've only wolfed one game here, so you couldn't have been wrong multiple times.

Okay fair enough.

It may have just been that first game then, that stood out so much to me.

[lilrascal]

gotcha.

everybody go back to 114. why would he describe my three posts as "making no sense"? they make all the sense in the world. i was having fun. rascal knows what goofing around looks like. is him seemingly not knowing that i was goofing around twtbaw or a wolf trying to make a case where there isnt one?

rascal

I rescinded that a long time ago and now have you in my slightly villa pile.

[wufwugy]

I rescinded that a long time ago and now have you in my slightly villa pile.

i know. what im concerned with is the logic used for actions.

[lilrascal]

What concerns you? I didn't follow understand your initial vote and progression. You've looked better since then, so I reassessed.

[BankItDrew]

a problem is the wolves can be easily tongue tied. for example, bid could zip it up given that he knows that if he messes up like he has before, the whole team dies. it's almost like we could do something like take the top 4-5 posters from this point on and only lynch those pairs that don't include them

As a villager, I want to zip it so as to minimize my fuck ups.

[lilrascal]

As a villager, I want to zip it so as to minimize my fuck ups.

This made me LOL no matter what your role is this game.

[a500lbgorilla]

The advantage this gives the wolves is to target a team that is on the villas wolfy lists.

Wolves can't see the forest for the trees til they can target down a couple of mislynching teams to get them out of this mess.

So Boog, got those 4 wolves ready yet?

Gabe?

Keith?

Hoopy?

[wufwugy]

What concerns you? I didn't follow understand your initial vote and progression. You've looked better since then, so I reassessed.

what i dont get is how there would be anything to "get" in the first place.

i bolded rilla with a half joking explanation (even though the bold was serious). then posted a joke about somethign else. then a posted a joke about somethign else. so now when i looked back over it, it looked strange to me that you read it as something other than just d1 fun

[lilrascal]

what i dont get is how there would be anything to "get" in the first place.

i bolded rilla with a half joking explanation (even though the bold was serious). then posted a joke about somethign else. then a posted a joke about somethign else. so now when i looked back over it, it looked strange to me that you read it as something other than just d1 fun

I guess we can agree to disagree. I didn't understand that you were joking in your posts.

As I've said, I plan on rereading Saturday, when I'm not drinking.

[GatorJH]

I don't see that wolfy thing you see in aubrey though. I'm leaning villager on her because she sounds authentic. Her posts don't seem to be reviewed or edited or thought out many times. They seem more typed out immediately after a thought arises.

meh, you are probably right here. She tends to react like that as a wolf when she has heat on her, but that is not the case here.

[wufwugy]

so um, everybody has to out soon right? we're <48 hours to eod. we need at least 24 hours before eod to consider the results

[BankItDrew]

so um, everybody has to out soon right? we're <48 hours to eod. we need at least 24 hours before eod to consider the results

Show me yours and I'll show you mine.

[wufwugy]

i said id let me pawdnah do it

[JKDS]

VOTE COUNT?

Boog (3): Rilla, BID, Aubrey
Wuf (2): SMF, Keith
Ong (1): Gabe
Rascal (1): Wuf

LESS THAN 36 HOURS REMAINING

[gabe]

so um, everybody has to out soon right? we're <48 hours to eod. we need at least 24 hours before eod to consider the results

man this shouldnt even be a question at this point. some players who disagree have just avoided my explanation for why it's definitely the right move. i feel like i'll be explaining it all again at some point.

the people who dont want to out dont trust the village to clear villagers. clearing villagers is how we've crushed for like 5 games in a row

knowing the pairs and making less risky lynches gives us a big boost in Expected Win. ong/gator/rilla/rascal have all balked at this. if there is a pair in that group, that's who i will be bolding

i won't vote for smf, bid, aubrey or boog

[gabe]

ong, i said i didnt want to bold anyone until the pairs were revealed. this should be obvious to any other villagers trying to solve the game. you were being ongtuse about it so i bolded you. this includes you saying "i know something i cant say" which is not a reason for us to listen to you about not outing. it makes sense ongwolf would try to use his authority after coming across as a strong wolf last game

[gabe]

also ong i know you'll be up soon so i look forward to hearing who your partner is

[gabe]

I still don't see where you're coming from with regards to gabe.



Ong, I get the same feeling from gabe for different reasons obviously since he wasn't voting me. Gabe seems to be trying to force reads that just aren't there.

i'm not forcing any reads. i'm trying to force people to help the village maximize the chance of hitting a wolf

we should be comparing pairs' wolf equity now (or when people are online) rather than this

[gabe]

gator hoopy and rilla are all too quiet

smf also but it makes sense for him. his partner BID seems relatively normal. last game as a wolf BID was pretty easy to spot

[Hoopy]

I'm back, had some family issues. Should be around most of today.

[Hoopy]

My partner is the former pro clown BooG.

[Hoopy]

{Wufwugy BID Lilrascal Keith Gabe Ongbonga Rilla Hoopy Boog Supermonkeyface aubrey Gator}
{Wufwugy BID Lilrascal Keith Gabe Ongbonga Rilla Hoopy Supermonkeyface aubrey Gator}
{Wufwugy BID Lilrascal Keith Gabe Ongbonga Rilla Supermonkeyface aubrey Gator}
{Wufwugy BID Lilrascal Keith Ongbonga Rilla Supermonkeyface aubrey Gator}
{Wufwugy Lilrascal Keith Ongbonga Rilla Supermonkeyface aubrey Gator}
{Wufwugy Lilrascal Keith Ongbonga Rilla aubrey Gator}
{Wufwugy Lilrascal Ongbonga Rilla Gator}
{Wufwugy Lilrascal Rilla Gator}

[Hoopy]

I'm least sure about Ong based on the past couple of games.

[Hoopy]

Quintuple post.

aubrey's couple of posts in a row where she messes up the vote count looks village to me. She's putting out thoughts as they form rather than trying to craft her posts imo.

[gabe]

I just don't see it. I'm not him as wolfy, but I'm not seeing him as villa either.

The good thing is we have some more time to get our reads.

i missed this slip while reading on my phone. hes talking to wuf about me

i think rascal knows im not a wolf and is trying to get me killed. he was late to agree with those who didnt want to out partners today, one of which (rilla gator ong) is his partner. its probably not ong, because i think ong is more likely to be a wrong villager than the other 2, but it could be

rescind ong and lynch rascal

[gabe]

its gotta be between wuf and rascal



..partner pending

[OngBonga]

i'm not forcing any reads. i'm trying to force people to help the village maximize the chance of hitting a wolf

By claiming, we increase our chances of a wolf lynch today, maybe, at the cost of info tomorrow. You're like a big kid who just wants all the seeets now, fuck tomorrow.

Do you not see what you're doing here gabe? You've found four people who disagree with you, and you're assuming we're wolfy because you're assuming you're right and we're wrong.

Welcome to my world gabe.

[OngBonga]

Am I the only one who thinks that gabe is in an awkward spot because he doesn't know if his wolf reads are paired to one another or not? If he's a wolf, his life would be oh so much easier if he knew if he had a pair or not in his list.

If he's a villager, he should at least understand why I'm against claiming. He should see that it makes life difficult for the wolves, at least for today.

[OngBonga]

I don't like gabe's reads at all, I don't like that he's trying to force the village into claiming, I think gabe is a wolf.

wuf rascal gator rilla, all look ok to me right now.

[OngBonga]

{Wufwugy BID Lilrascal Keith Gabe Ongbonga Rilla Hoopy Boog Supermonkeyface aubrey Gator}
{Wufwugy BID Lilrascal Keith Gabe Ongbonga Rilla Hoopy Supermonkeyface aubrey Gator}
{Wufwugy BID Lilrascal Keith Gabe Ongbonga Rilla Supermonkeyface aubrey Gator}
{Wufwugy BID Lilrascal Keith Ongbonga Rilla Supermonkeyface aubrey Gator}
{Wufwugy Lilrascal Keith Ongbonga Rilla Supermonkeyface aubrey Gator}
{Wufwugy Lilrascal Keith Ongbonga Rilla aubrey Gator}
{Wufwugy Lilrascal Ongbonga Rilla Gator}
{Wufwugy Lilrascal Rilla Gator}

This looks very wolfy, when taken into cotext with gabe's current position.

I'm almost certain that if gabe is a wolf, so is hoopy.

[OngBonga]

My partner is the former pro clown BooG.

lol why do I read upwards?

Ok I need to consider this, because now for hoopy to be wolf with gabe, boog is wolf with gabe.

[OngBonga]

hoopy/boog pair and gabe/keith pair must have a wolf pair. Surely.

Just lynch them both for the win.

[OngBonga]

gabe, why is boog in your "not lynching" pile?

[Hoopy]

I don't like gabe's reads at all, I don't like that he's trying to force the village into claiming, I think gabe is a wolf.

wuf rascal gator rilla, all look ok to me right now.

I read him the exact opposite and think he's playing in a pro village manner.

How can they all look ok to you?

[Hoopy]

rilla has been thinking about wolf play recently imo. The question is would he modify his villager game in order to improve his wolf game?

Somehow I don't think so.

[Hoopy]

lynch lilrascal

[OngBonga]

I read him the exact opposite and think he's playing in a pro village manner.

How can they all look ok to you?

"ok" isn't the strongest term. I'm not talking about strong village reads here. But all lean village for one reason or another. I thought wuf sounded awkward earlier, now he sounds much better in his tone. rascal is a nervous village read. gator is a less nervous village read. And rilla, well I just don't see how he can play like this as a wolf when he knows that his lynch is something that cannot happen.

You should probably consider that I'm trying to give easy village cred for my partner hidden amongst easy cred for others who have hinted slightly at being a villager.

[OngBonga]

rilla has been thinking about wolf play recently imo. The question is would he modify his villager game in order to improve his wolf game?

Somehow I don't think so.

lynch lilrascal

Someone do a "rilla is a wolf, lynch rascal" meme.

[a500lbgorilla]

My partner is the former pro clown BooG.

You don't say...

[a500lbgorilla]

lol why do I read upwards?

All pro players read backwards.