Polygamist Werewolf

[gabe]

I'd like to hear you elaborate on this. It would help tremendously.

I was initially skeptical of boog on D1 but I later assumed it was because I always am skeptical of boog.

I'd also like to know what the current feel is on the cross-claim thing now. Is that 100% v/v/v/v now? Is v/v/w/w an option? That would be funny as shit.

Okay. sunday football.

its 100% vvvv. if gator and rilla were wolves, they wouldnt have engaged in that behavior

but you already know this. the boog/hopy/smf/bid team has to be more likely than any team with ong in it

[a500lbgorilla]

Okay. sunday football.

All this blood on your hands and you're gonna crack a beer and catch a game?

Wufwugy needed you.

Gator needed you.

[BooG690]

Ugh. I'm sick to my stomach. I don't understand how this happened. Maybe I let the idea of not losing to obvious wolves get the best of me.

Lynch gabe

I think this means I believe it's gabe/Keith/BID/Monkey. But then gabe has BID/Monkey in his four.

You know what? We're best if we all list our four. Go.

[BooG690]

Ong/Aubrey/BID/Monkey? Rescind gabe

There's a chance BID is the best lynch tonight. Those thinking it's BID/Monkey with me and Hoopy will like that (Ong, Gabe, dead Wuf, dead Gator, I think Rilla). Also, those thinking it's BID/Monkey and mix of gabe/Keith/Ong/Aubrey will be satisfied.

I lynch BID here.

[Hoopy]

FUCK

Well that throws all my ideas out the window. Looks like you were right on wuf alignment Ong.

Lets use this day fully, no quick lynches.

[Hoopy]

Ugh. I'm sick to my stomach. I don't understand how this happened. Maybe I let the idea of not losing to obvious wolves get the best of me.

So much this.

Time to rethink.

[Hoopy]

rilla & rascal are obviously clear now.

Ong would not have played how he has as a wolf, trying to save wuf would be a very weird play.

aubrey by extension is clear.

Me and BooG will have to convince you guys we're villagers.

[OngBonga]

rilla & rascal are obviously clear now.

Ong would not have played how he has as a wolf, trying to save wuf would be a very weird play.

aubrey by extension is clear.

Me and BooG will have to convince you guys we're villagers.

And hoopy wins the award for the single wolfiest post in the thread.

Hoopy here has just solved the game, from his pov. Yet he's more interested in convincing us they're villagers? That doesn't matter, we're lynching gabe/keith. Hoopy should be comfortable here, assuming he's a villager. The lynch is very likely to fall on someone who he has poe'd as wolf.

hoopy doesn't come across as someone who is comfortable here, nor does he come across as someone who is confident he has solved the game.

I'm back to hoopy/boog with keith/gabe.

[BooG690]

And hoopy wins the award for the single wolfiest post in the thread.

Hoopy here has just solved the game, from his pov. Yet he's more interested in convincing us they're villagers? That doesn't matter, we're lynching gabe/keith. Hoopy should be comfortable here, assuming he's a villager. The lynch is very likely to fall on someone who he has poe'd as wolf.

hoopy doesn't come across as someone who is comfortable here, nor does he come across as someone who is confident he has solved the game.

I'm back to hoopy/boog with keith/gabe.

Shit, even I agree that was a wolfy fucking post.

[lilrascal]

that lynch cleared gator and rilla. thats obvious

i'm not a wolf. thats obvious (to me)

boog/hoopy is the only hot team. thats obvious to everyone

my post was just based on obvious things

I was hoping to come into post game this evening. Instead I read posts like this and the one Ong pointed out by Hoopy.

I still think the wolves are in gabe/keith/boog/hoopy. I have a small bit of concern about BID. I really wish he would have switched his vote, then this would be locked.

Lynch gabe.

[BooG690]

Fuck it, then. Lynch gabe

[Hoopy]

And hoopy wins the award for the single wolfiest post in the thread.

Hoopy here has just solved the game, from his pov. Yet he's more interested in convincing us they're villagers? That doesn't matter, we're lynching gabe/keith. Hoopy should be comfortable here, assuming he's a villager. The lynch is very likely to fall on someone who he has poe'd as wolf.

hoopy doesn't come across as someone who is comfortable here, nor does he come across as someone who is confident he has solved the game.

I'm back to hoopy/boog with keith/gabe.

Yes but though the game might be solved from my perspective I understand that people still suspect BooG/me. The wolves will try and get us mislynched so we need to do our best to help the village here.

[Hoopy]

Shit, even I agree that was a wolfy fucking post.

Et tu, Brute?

[OngBonga]

Well, gabe has two votes and hasn't been lynched. That means that gabe, or someone voting for him, is a wolf.

[OngBonga]

aubrey you lovely human, where are you?

monkey you smelly animal, where are you?

[OngBonga]

It's possible monkey is a wolf and that's why it's not over.

But really. As if gabe boog and rascal are all villagers.

[OngBonga]

But really. As if gabe boog and rascal are all villagers.

In fact reading this, the penny drops and I can see this is clearly impossible.

[Hoopy]

lynch gabe

[Hoopy]

I think you can make the argument that I wouldn't have pushed so hard to lynch wuf as a wolf the same way Ong would not have defended wuf so hard as a wolf.

[OngBonga]

Aaaaaand here comes the paranoia about rascal rilla boog and hoopy.

I'll look into that team once I've eaten something.

[aubreymcfate]

sorry, family stuff, hospitals, bleh

anyway.. had I been around I coulda told you guys wuf wasn't a wolf lol, I could tell by his posts. Too bad.

I feel like boog/hoopy are wolves by tone alone, but I wanna catch up a bit, check out this BID vote thing a little more closely

(some of the posts these last few pages have seriously cracked me the f up, esp boog and ong)

[OngBonga]

Oh hi aubrey!

[lilrascal]

Well, gabe has two votes and hasn't been lynched. That means that gabe, or someone voting for him, is a wolf.

I wasn't thinking about MAJ if it's not Gabe, but I don't really believe that.

rescind

[BooG690]

We're clearly going to lose this game.

[Hoopy]

Aaaaaand here comes the paranoia about rascal rilla boog and hoopy.

I'll look into that team once I've eaten something.

rascal and rilla are cleared by the cross partnering.

[BooG690]

Actually, no, the answer lies in everyone naming their four. Everyone, please to do so.

[lilrascal]

Aaaaaand here comes the paranoia about rascal rilla boog and hoopy.

I'll look into that team once I've eaten something.

Ong, please don't get paranoid again. Rilla and I are villa. I really believe that you are villa. That leaves 3 teams of which 2 are wolves. We just need to get this right.

If we would have voted Gabe yesterday it would have been a win yesterday or a lock today.

Let's just look at the possible pairings and work this out.

On phone now, but will look more in depth later, but I still think it's Gabe/Keith/boog/hoopy almost always.

[OngBonga]

rascal and rilla are cleared by the cross partnering.

Cleared how?

In the same way I was cleared last game?

[OngBonga]

Ong, please don't get paranoid again.

Paranoia is a good thing in this game.

I'm just keeping on open mind. I haven't looked back yet to see if there's any reason for you not to be wolves with hoopy and boog. I hope I find something.

[OngBonga]

I'll be back in an hour or two, I'm off to do one of the following...

a) meet a girl for coffee
b) job interview
c) get weed

Place your bets now.

[lilrascal]

Paranoia is a good thing in this game.

I'm just keeping on open mind. I haven't looked back yet to see if there's any reason for you not to be wolves with hoopy and boog. I hope I find something.

Fair enough. But you figured it out yesterday with the foursome. I just don't want your paranoia to get too much in the way.

[lilrascal]

I'll be back in an hour or two, I'm off to do one of the following...

a) meet a girl for coffee
b) job interview
c) get weed

Place your bets now.

LOL. I'm going with c.

[BooG690]

Ong: It's extremely difficult for me to be a wolf, at least with gabe. I was on gabe almost all of D1 until a) JKDS made a mistake in the vote count and b) the whole Rascal/Wuf/Gator/Rascal thing went down.

I still like a gabe lynch or BID lynch here. Rascal/Rilla pretty clear in my eyes right now. If they pull that move off as wolves, more power to them.

[aubreymcfate]

i think we should lynch gabe today and the likeliest wolves to me are gabe/keith/bid/smf

i would go into more detail but i simply don't have the time for that level of thread analysis, maybe later

gotta go wash some wuf/gator blood off my hands now whilst i weep silently

[JKDS]

VOTE COUNT

Gabe (2) Boog, Hoopy
Boog (1): Gabe

~49 hours left in the day, 6 to lynch

[OngBonga]

lol wolves voting for each other while villagers bide their time.

[OngBonga]

It's funny that you referenced that soft post so quickly as a point where you "put heat" on Gabe. Plant that post there for that purpose, Ong?

boog talking about how I could still be a wolf with gabe despite me throwing my weight behind the idea he was wolfy early on.

Ong: It's extremely difficult for me to be a wolf, at least with gabe. I was on gabe almost all of D1 until a) JKDS made a mistake in the vote count and b) the whole Rascal/Wuf/Gator/Rascal thing went down.

boog talking about how voting for gabe on d1 means he's not wolfing with him.

[OngBonga]

I like you more after this post.

This is where boog backs away from gabe. Boog would have us believe he was on him all day, but this is p2. I'm sure boog does swing for him again, but this demonstrates that boog is more than willing to give gabe village points when push comes to shove.

So far through my reread, I'm really liking rascal's tone.

note - going back out, I've read up to p4

[OngBonga]

Oh I saw a drew vote for boog that needed noting, that's further evidence that drew isn't wolfing with boog. Bearing in mind that drew attacked boog for attacking gabe, and considering this is from only 3 whole pages of info, I feel good about a gabe lynch winning this for us.

Certainly not voting yet though.

[SuperMonkeyFace]

Holy shit I forgot about this game.

I've been literally working and then working on my commerce course for an additional 6 hours a day. Test tomorrow, final on Saturday :/

[SuperMonkeyFace]

I haven't read much. I'll try n get into this thread at some point later tonight. Unless I have tomorrow evening (but I don't think I do, lynch probably tomorrow?)

[SuperMonkeyFace]

Thanks for picking up the slack drew!

[SuperMonkeyFace]

Commerce course lol

College course * (business math to be exact)

[Hoopy]

I'd like rilla to share his thoughts.

[Hoopy]

Cleared how?

In the same way I was cleared last game?

I never read the last game in detail.

They both kept their votes on gabe at EOD.

Complexity of both going along with a double fake pairing, either could have denied the pairing and gotten wuf/Gator lynched quickly.

General tone of their posts.

[OngBonga]

My point being that wolves can look like cleared villagers.

I don't think rascal and rilla are wolves. But I'm certainly going to consider it while I read through.

They both kept their votes on gabe at EOD.

This is certainly good enough to clear them of being wolves with gabe/keith. There should be more clues like this that can help us. I hope to find them when I continue reading. Just got back home now and it's 1am, so fuck that for today.

[gabe]

before review i had it boog/hoopy/smf/bid has the only possible team. POE removes everyone else but i dont really feel this team. im starting to think its more likely the public POE has been manipulated

when wuf/gator died my gut reaction was to clear rilla/rascal. my view on the 4some was that two wolves would not participate in that plan because they could just let the 2 villagers (wuf/gator) or me get lynched instead. they wouldnt need to stick their neck out. and obv villagers wouldnt initiate the crossclaim with 2 people they just hoped werent wolves. this was the big sticking point for me. i was saying no way rilla had a 100% read that he would trust to make this bold play, because if he was wrong the village is screwed. but its completely possible that rilla/rascal did this to shift votes from rascal (eventually falling on wuf) while also clearing themselves for day 2. its ambitious fps that leaves them looking smart and villagery if we dont question it. rilla can pretend he made a villager-on-villager 100% soulread to pocket wuf, but that doesnt matter if rilla and rascal have perfect info (because theyre wolves).

it also makes sense that as wolves they were trying to be creative enough to solve a game that should otherwise be stacked for the village

also before the whole crossclaim party i thought rascal wasn't being his normal villager stuff. he wasn't hunting and engaging, while casting shade on me repeatedly when i was trying to help the village. not to mention Freud slip

rilla has posted 0 and its hard to take away his intentions. rilla looks like he completely shut himself off and decide only to make "{{ .. }} {..}" type posts for days

[gabe]

a problem is that its not immediately obvious who their partners are. boog/hoopy is the hottest team but i havent extensively looked at the boog/hoopy - rascal/rilla interaction.

just now i focused on the claiming and cross claiming dynamic to try and figure what they were thinking. rilla is pretty absent from all of this except the inital

My partner's Gator.

this is where things all started. at this point, i was arguing with ong about why we should out, and ong/wuf had just bolded me right before this

rilla decided to come out and say this. ong uses POE to determine the pairs and 21 minutes later rascal "confirms" that his partner is wuf:

Ok, so now that you know wuf is my partner. How does that help us solve the game?

I still think we lynch the wolfier players and that IMO is gabe followed by boog.

2 minutes later:

Rilla and Ong would be my top two villas after me and Wuf.

within an hour ong points out the weird relationship rascal and wuf had if they were actually a pair. i could see why the wolves could choose to target gator and wuf. one is missing in action, and other is honorary wolf for life

i had a vote on rascal, then a couple votes came in on wuf/rascal, and then by the time we settled on one person it was shifted (mostly by ong) to wuf.

rascal during all of this gives rilla, ong and BID village props but not their partners. finally 4 hours gator comes out of nowhere to confess

Sorry wuf. I was away all day and literally fast forwarded through the last page.

I am wuf's partner, not Rilla's. I am quite certain rilla was laying some sort of trap and now need to thoroughly read the thread so see if I can pick it up.

rascal immediately ties this to him being cleared

Now we're at level 4. 4 clear villagers working together in the thread to out the wolves.

also ong points this out:

How did rilla know to pair up with gator?

Idk, you'll have to ask him.

But, I can't wait to read Wolf chat in post game.

has rascal ever said "Idk" before? im starting to see where he could know the answer and thats why his reaction was to say "i dont know!" like, he doesnt know but he still did go along with rilla's plan.

this is an impossible plan to propose if he was a villager:

Boog, read my post #667 and replace hoopy's name with yours.

Let's vote gabe today and if he doesn't flip wolf, then vote me tomorrow.

[gabe]

the wolves have guided the POE to be boog/hoopy + either smf/bid or me/keith. since i know im a villager, the POE must be boog/hoopy and bid/smf. like i said, this team doesnt sit right with me. now i'm not sure if we can clear ong/aubrey, i want to review more and see where the teams interact

regardless i dont think we ever lynch ong/aubrey because they dont overlap with enough of the possible teams

[gabe]

i tried to post that earlier but FTR kept being down. lets get another extension since FTR has been bugging out the last 2 days

[JKDS]

Luco replaces Keith

[JKDS]

48hr extension granted, due to downage + replacement

[gabe]

rescind

the whole crossclaim thing does not feel all villagery. i dont believe rilla/rascal had some partner ESP that set this whole play in motion

there is not much interaction with them and others in the thread so i dont have a solid guess other than the general POE hoopy/boog. rilla/rascal are disconnected from people besides the claiming and one liners

[gabe]

keith went to feed the pigs and the pigs ate him

[Luco]

keith went to feed the pigs and the pigs ate him

is this a reference to brick top? If so, have some cool points

Mason from Hannibal would also be acceptable

[Luco]

rescind

the whole crossclaim thing does not feel all villagery. i dont believe rilla/rascal had some partner ESP that set this whole play in motion

there is not much interaction with them and others in the thread so i dont have a solid guess other than the general POE hoopy/boog. rilla/rascal are disconnected from people besides the claiming and one liners

nope, it's boog / hoopy / bid / smf all day long

allllll day

[Luco]

Boog / hoopy reactions to the d1 flip:

Ugh. I'm sick to my stomach. I don't understand how this happened. Maybe I let the idea of not losing to obvious wolves get the best of me.

Lynch gabe

I think this means I believe it's gabe/Keith/BID/Monkey. But then gabe has BID/Monkey in his four.

You know what? We're best if we all list our four. Go.

Boog with the melodrama. Sick to your stomach?

FUCK

Well that throws all my ideas out the window. Looks like you were right on wuf alignment Ong.

Lets use this day fully, no quick lynches.

This is also a horrendously insincere, 'back to the drawing board' post.

[Luco]

I see several comments that SMF wouldn't have crumbed bid like that as a wolf, but that train of thought dies when you remember that the wolves had a headstart on us. All it takes is someone saying 'leave an early crumb' in the den, it's not even a leap

[Luco]

And what have SMF / bid done today?

They scared

[Luco]

I don't think you need to be partnered with gabe to see he's a villager here, he has several posts that are intrinsically from his villager brain

[Hoopy]

keith went to feed the pigs and the pigs ate him

Kind of funny that the pigs ate the wolf.

[Hoopy]

Boog / hoopy reactions to the d1 flip:

Boog with the melodrama. Sick to your stomach?

This is also a horrendously insincere, 'back to the drawing board' post.

It's also true.

I see several comments that SMF wouldn't have crumbed bid like that as a wolf, but that train of thought dies when you remember that the wolves had a headstart on us. All it takes is someone saying 'leave an early crumb' in the den, it's not even a leap

But I do like this reasoning.

[Hoopy]

Luco you're very definite for someone whose just subbed in.

[lilrascal]

The following is looking at just D1 votes and possible wolf pairings.

Gabe/Keith(Luco) & Boog/Hoopy

Gabe/Keith(Luco) never voted for Boog/Hoopy on D1.
Hoopy never voted for Gabe/Keith(Luco) on D1. Boog did vote for Gabe early in #115, but rescinded it fairly early in #200; but never voted for Keith(Luco).

Gabe/Keith(Luco) & BID/SMF

Gabe/Keith(Luco) never voted for BID/SMF, but BID never received any vote on D1 and SMF only one from Ong early, so BID/SMF never received any heat from being voted.
BID/SMF never voted for Gabe/Keith(Luco).

Boog/Hoopy & BID/SMF

Boog/Hoopy never voted for BID/SMF, but BID never received any vote on D1 and SMF only one from Ong early, so BID/SMF never received any heat from being voted.
BID did vote for Boog fairly early in #221 and didn't change until #581 when he went with Wuf.

The only people from these groups to take any heat (in the form of votes) through all of the extended D1, are gabe and boog and other than BID's vote on Boog, these teams haven't voted for each other.

BID's vote on Boog, especially sticking with it until he voted Wuf near EOD, but didn't change (still disappointed in that) is the only vote that looks villagery (based on him not believing that Wuf would do what he did as a Villa).

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Since people like percentages, I have the following as the percentages for the pairings to be w/w:

Gabe/Keith(Luco) & Boog/Hoopy - 55%
Gabe/Keith(Luco) & BID/SMF - 35%
Boog/Hoopy & BID/SMF - 10%

So of the possible pairings, the highest probability to hit a wolf team is Gabe/Keith(Luco) based on D1 votes.


I'll wait for more D2 votes to do any kind of analysis there.

[lilrascal]

Before anyone asks why I didn't include Ong/Aubrey in the mix. I can't see where they are wolves in this game. Ong has been doing the heavy lifting for this village, especially at EOD yesterday.

[a500lbgorilla]

nope, it's boog / hoopy / bid / smf all day long

allllll day

I agree with this.

[OngBonga]

How does luco know the wolves had a head start?

[OngBonga]

Ok so luco has done one of the following...

a) followed the game from the off
b) noticed the time stamps and content of JKDS' opening posts to see that pms had been sent and there was a delay
c) seen the den

[OngBonga]

I see several comments that SMF wouldn't have crumbed bid like that as a wolf, but that train of thought dies when you remember that the wolves had a headstart on us. All it takes is someone saying 'leave an early crumb' in the den, it's not even a leap

Here's the post that stands out to me.

"haedstart"

luco has literally just subbed in, I don't see why he would be aware of this except if he's got access to the den.

[OngBonga]

I'm gonna dig some more through today to be happier that rascal and rilla are not wolfing. I'm liking rilla less and less, but luckily rascal is holding that pair up enough to stop my paranoia getting out of control.

[Luco]

Here's the post that stands out to me.

"haedstart"

luco has literally just subbed in, I don't see why he would be aware of this except if he's got access to the den.

Ong wtf

You know I've been active on ftr and I know you've seen my commune posts over the last week or two. Of course I've been following, I almost signed up

[OngBonga]

Ong wtf

You know I've been active on ftr and I know you've seen my commune posts over the last week or two. Of course I've been following, I almost signed up

It doesn't help that you're gabe's partner luco and that I'm convinced you're unfortunate enough to have subbed into a fucked wolf role.

Of course, you're already up to date and would have aniticpated this.

[OngBonga]

Aubrey is flying up my wolfdar

I was thinking the opposite.

This is really villagery from drew. It's totally unnecessary for wolf drew to be so quick to reject a potential mislynch. This strikes me as particularly sincere. I'd be impressed if drew is a wolf here.

[OngBonga]

I don't see that wolfy thing you see in aubrey though. I'm leaning villager on her because she sounds authentic. Her posts don't seem to be reviewed or edited or thought out many times. They seem more typed out immediately after a thought arises.

At the time, rascal is looking at aubrey, and drew responds with this.

drew is not looking for mislynches here, he's trying to figure stuff out. I get a sense of sincerity from rascal too as he presses aubrey, but it's not so strong a town vibe as drew here. rascal is putting pressure on a villager, while drew is rejecting it. drew is starting to look very good.

[BooG690]

Ong, you're suspecting Luco here and he suspects me. I think you're villager and all but none of your suspicions are adding up. You need to re-evaluate your read on me here. The only team that really makes sense is Gabe/Luco/BID/SMF.