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 Originally Posted by poop
There's a whole literature showing that confidence doesn't necessarily correlate with accuracy.
That's because nearly always, people oversetimate their confidence. When they say 100%, they actually mean a figure close to, but lower than, 100%. Such as the probability of winning a hand after flopping a royal flush. For comparison, the probability of me spontaneously turning into a cat is zero, not some fraction above zero. If the probability was higher than zero, then so too is the probability of an infinite number of absurd events. In such a universal model, we wouldn't expect order and structure, because we would be surrounded by chaos. We are not surrounded by chaos.
Originally Posted by mojo
Not sure if that's profound or bone-headed.
Good one.
If when I die, there is no observation of the universe in which I formerly occupied, then that implies I was the only one observing it, and that my observation that there were other observers was false. I am not alone in this universe. Thus, when I die, others still exist, and the universe continues to be observed.
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