Quote Originally Posted by Poopadoop View Post
Taleb was referring to things you couldn't predict because they'd never yet happened, like the industrialized slaughter that was WWI, and how this lulled people into thinking they never could happen.

You can predict rare but not unheard of events like a home invasion pretty solidly. And yes there is a difference between a very small likelihood with an immensely negative outcome and a 0 likelihood of that same event ('it can't happen to me syndrome').

That said, there comes a point where the extra security measures carry such an excessive cost that you may be better off not having a fortress for a house in terms of your overall happiness. But simply taking little steps like locking your door seems to come with no cost apart from learning a new habit, and there's no good reason not to do it imo.
I agree. I don't think that means lots of kinds of security measures being poo-pooed are of greater cost.

About the Taleb thing, does the rationale apply on the individual level ("it can't happen to me" seems a whole lot like "it can't happen to society" on different scale)? As far as I can tell, his argument involves costs associated as well as probability of the event. He talks a lot about how terrible GMOs are in part because in the rare event of them being a problem, it basically destroys civilization, and that cost is not accounted for when statisticians discuss GMO.