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Ok i get your point, he's a donk...But WTF open pushing $552 into $17? Surely even a donk realises that he is only going to get called by a better hand ih he has a weak ace/lower pair/sick bluff esp with his image?
Eff stacks are only about $330, but I get your point. A large part of my argument stems from the player in question and my assumption that this player is playing very far from ideally.
OK we MAY have him beat, but i really don't understand calling and potentially losing the stack. Perhaps I'm playing scared money but I'm rarely calling $340 to win $17 with less than a boat/quads/AK on this flop.
I'm not concerned in the least about losing our stack, all I really care about is EV here. If your argument is such that the range you put him on makes it a -EV call, then we should fold, but we shouldn't fold just because we are afraid to call such a massive overbet without the nuts/near nuts.
Is the Hero folding this flop to a $12 bet without an Ace? Probably...He may RR a PP here, but if it gets pushed over then its a clear fold.
ya...
SO if I've hit a boat on the flop - and he's folding anyway if he doesnt have an Ace. Lets make it dam tricky for him to lay down any Ace with our current donk image for maximum $$ by open pushing the flop.
This very well may be the case. I never claimed that we would always be good here, or that we would be good the vast majority of the time. Part of my argument stems that he starts out with the fact that his preflop range is EXTREMELY wide and the range that we are beat here on the flop is EXTREMELY narrow. Obviously he isn't shoving any two, but consider the villain in question here...
And yes Villain may be a donk, but equally why would he want to risk $340 for $8 with a weak ace/smaller PP or air?
If I had an explanation for a lot of the weird shit I see on a daily basis from good players, letalone a '45/7 donk', I'd answer this. Honestly, the hand I'm most afraid of here is AQ. Don't ask me why, just a hunch.
I'm no poker math WIZARD, but..would we need to call this correctly over 20 times out of 21 for this to be the right play? Honestly I couldn't see the call here being correct that much, I certainly couldnt see it being 20 to 1 on that we are ahead.
you're right, math isn't your strong point. 
We have to win this hand slightly less then 1/2 the time for it to be a +EV call.
Rip my post to shreads dude, I'm just interested in this hand and I won't be offended if you think I'm talking bollocks  I'm currently at work working in a department that I don't usually work in. I have like NOTHING to do apart from browse the net LOLz. I have done 2 piece of 5 minute work all morning.
nice nice, that's how a job should be
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