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AJ on AAx flop facing 165bb open shove

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  1. #1
    aislephive's Avatar
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    Default AJ on AAx flop facing 165bb open shove

    Opponent is 45/7, donkish.

    Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

    saw flop|saw showdown

    BB ($200)
    UTG ($553.99)
    MP ($344.60)
    CO ($222)
    Hero ($337.15)
    SB ($152.85)

    Preflop: Hero is Button with J, A. UTG posts a blind of $2. SB posts a blind of $1.
    2 folds, Hero raises to $8, 1 fold, UTG (poster) calls $6.

    Flop: ($17) A, A, 6 (3 players)
    UTG calls $551.99 (All-In), Hero ???
  2. #2
    God isn't this just awesome with 66.
  3. #3
    Galapogos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bigspenda73
    God isn't this just awesome with 66.
    Not really as I'm sure Aislephive's raising range preflop is much wider than Ax hands.

    Do you have much of an idea of how villian plays beyond stats? Does he push often? As long as he doesn't push often I think I fold this. You have so little invested. I hate to sound like such a little bitch but I believe it's the right play.


    Quote Originally Posted by sauce123
    I don't get why you insist on stacking off with like jack high all the time.
  4. #4
    Renton's Avatar
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    This is a Call by Foo Fighters

    Visiting is pretty
    Visiting is good
    Seems that all they ever wanted was a brother
    This can be a secret
    We can keep it good
    Even all the ever wanting had a problem

    This is a call to all my
    Past resignations
    This is a call to all

    Fingernails are pretty
    Fingernails are good
    Seems that all they ever wanted was a marking

    Them balloons are pretty big
    And say they should
    Ever fall to ground
    Call the magic marker

    This is a call to all my
    Past resignations
    This is a call to all
    This is a call to all my
    Past resignatoins
    It's been too long

    Minicyn is pretty
    Minicyn is good
    Seems that all the cysts and mollusks tend to barter

    Ritalin is easy
    Ritalin is good
    Even all the ones that watered down the daughter

    This is a call to all my
    Past resignations
    This is a call to all
    This is a call to all my
    Past resignations
    It's been too long

    Fingernails are pretty
    Fingernails are good
    Seems that all they ever wanted was a marking

    Them balloons are pretty
    Big and say they should
    Ever fall to ground
    Call the magic marker

    This is a call to all my
    Past resignations
    This is a call to all
    This is a call to all my
    Past resignations
    It's been too long
  5. #5
    elipsesjeff's Avatar
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    If we were only 100 BB deep and it was 90 to call, I still don't know if this is a good call. There is no point here to make this call. If he is willing to bluff 170BB into a pot for 10BB, then make him pay later.


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  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
    If we were only 100 BB deep and it was 90 to call, I still don't know if this is a good call. There is no point here to make this call. If he is willing to bluff 170BB into a pot for 10BB, then make him pay later.
    What hand ever makes this play for value though? I don't think I could ever fold this really.
  7. #7
    elipsesjeff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bigspenda73
    Quote Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
    If we were only 100 BB deep and it was 90 to call, I still don't know if this is a good call. There is no point here to make this call. If he is willing to bluff 170BB into a pot for 10BB, then make him pay later.
    What hand ever makes this play for value though? I don't think I could ever fold this really.
    If villain has boat here, open pushing is the most likely way to disguise his hand. Given that there are 3 Ax hands that beat us, 1 that ties us as well as 66 beats us, there is sufficient reason to fold.

    This isn't a spot to make a heroic 160 BB call.


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  8. #8
    Lukie's Avatar
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    beat him into the pot
  9. #9
    Muzzard's Avatar
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    WOW that's sick. The only hand I see making this move is 66.

    With only $8 invested in the pot its not worth risking your whole stack to find out
  10. #10
    oh snap


























    call
    when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
  11. #11
    Lukie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PokerMuzz
    WOW that's sick. The only hand I see making this move is 66.

    With only $8 invested in the pot its not worth risking your whole stack to find out
    "opponent is 45/7, donkish."

    whether or not it's a call or fold is debatable but I think you're crazy if you think his range is 66. Obviously if our opponent is playing ideally it's a turbo muck, but that's not the case. Hence, debatable.

    Another way to look at it is that we could wait for AA/66/AK here and easily be +EV since it's such a massive overbet, but IMO we can profitably call with more hands then that. I don't know how far down we could or should go, but I think we can profitably call with any ace+paint and obv boat/quads.
  12. #12
    Muzzard's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lukie
    Quote Originally Posted by PokerMuzz
    WOW that's sick. The only hand I see making this move is 66.

    With only $8 invested in the pot its not worth risking your whole stack to find out
    "opponent is 45/7, donkish."

    whether or not it's a call or fold is debatable but I think you're crazy if you think his range is 66. Obviously if our opponent is playing ideally it's a turbo muck, but that's not the case. Hence, debatable.

    Another way to look at it is that we could wait for AA/66/AK here and easily be +EV since it's such a massive overbet, but IMO we can profitably call with more hands then that. I don't know how far down we could or should go, but I think we can profitably call with any ace+paint and obv
    boat/quads.
    Ok i get your point, he's a donk...But WTF open pushing $552 into $17? Surely even a donk realises that he is only going to get called by a better hand ih he has a weak ace/lower pair/sick bluff esp with his image?

    OK we MAY have him beat, but i really don't understand calling and potentially losing the stack. Perhaps I'm playing scared money but I'm rarely calling $340 to win $17 with less than a boat/quads/AK on this flop.

    Is the Hero folding this flop to a $12 bet without an Ace? Probably...He may RR a PP here, but if it gets pushed over then its a clear fold.

    SO if I've hit a boat on the flop - and he's folding anyway if he doesnt have an Ace. Lets make it dam tricky for him to lay down any Ace with our current donk image for maximum $$ by open pushing the flop.

    And yes Villain may be a donk, but equally why would he want to risk $340 for $8 with a weak ace/smaller PP or air?

    I'm no poker math WIZARD, but..would we need to call this correctly over 20 times out of 21 for this to be the right play? Honestly I couldn't see the call here being correct that much, I certainly couldnt see it being 20 to 1 on that we are ahead.

    Rip my post to shreads dude, I'm just interested in this hand and I won't be offended if you think I'm talking bollocks I'm currently at work working in a department that I don't usually work in. I have like NOTHING to do apart from browse the net LOLz. I have done 2 piece of 5 minute work all morning.
  13. #13
    bode's Avatar
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    i think this is a lessor Ace waaaaaaaaaay more often than this is 66/A6/AQ/AK, but i just dont know if its a lessor Ace 20/21 times. w/ him being a donk i call though.
    eeevees are not monies yet...they are like baby monies.
  14. #14
    Lukie's Avatar
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    Ok i get your point, he's a donk...But WTF open pushing $552 into $17? Surely even a donk realises that he is only going to get called by a better hand ih he has a weak ace/lower pair/sick bluff esp with his image?
    Eff stacks are only about $330, but I get your point. A large part of my argument stems from the player in question and my assumption that this player is playing very far from ideally.

    OK we MAY have him beat, but i really don't understand calling and potentially losing the stack. Perhaps I'm playing scared money but I'm rarely calling $340 to win $17 with less than a boat/quads/AK on this flop.
    I'm not concerned in the least about losing our stack, all I really care about is EV here. If your argument is such that the range you put him on makes it a -EV call, then we should fold, but we shouldn't fold just because we are afraid to call such a massive overbet without the nuts/near nuts.

    Is the Hero folding this flop to a $12 bet without an Ace? Probably...He may RR a PP here, but if it gets pushed over then its a clear fold.
    ya...

    SO if I've hit a boat on the flop - and he's folding anyway if he doesnt have an Ace. Lets make it dam tricky for him to lay down any Ace with our current donk image for maximum $$ by open pushing the flop.
    This very well may be the case. I never claimed that we would always be good here, or that we would be good the vast majority of the time. Part of my argument stems that he starts out with the fact that his preflop range is EXTREMELY wide and the range that we are beat here on the flop is EXTREMELY narrow. Obviously he isn't shoving any two, but consider the villain in question here...

    And yes Villain may be a donk, but equally why would he want to risk $340 for $8 with a weak ace/smaller PP or air?
    If I had an explanation for a lot of the weird shit I see on a daily basis from good players, letalone a '45/7 donk', I'd answer this. Honestly, the hand I'm most afraid of here is AQ. Don't ask me why, just a hunch.

    I'm no poker math WIZARD, but..would we need to call this correctly over 20 times out of 21 for this to be the right play? Honestly I couldn't see the call here being correct that much, I certainly couldnt see it being 20 to 1 on that we are ahead.
    you're right, math isn't your strong point.

    We have to win this hand slightly less then 1/2 the time for it to be a +EV call.

    Rip my post to shreads dude, I'm just interested in this hand and I won't be offended if you think I'm talking bollocks I'm currently at work working in a department that I don't usually work in. I have like NOTHING to do apart from browse the net LOLz. I have done 2 piece of 5 minute work all morning.
    nice nice, that's how a job should be
  15. #15
    Muzzard's Avatar
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    I never claimed that we would always be good here, or that we would be good the vast majority of the time. Part of my argument stems that he starts out with the fact that his preflop range is EXTREMELY wide and the range that we are beat here on the flop is EXTREMELY narrow. Obviously he isn't shoving any two, but consider the villain in question here...
    OK agreed, but I contend that his shoving range - though he may be a donk - is extrememly narrow also. I suppose this is dependent on previous encounters/hands with the villain and his preponderance to pushing in small pots.

    If I'd seen him push pots like these in this session or previous sessions and seen him show marginal hands then I may be more tempted to call.

    EDIT: As for my math, yes your right now I think about it... Its not 340/17... His stack is already in the pot so its roughly 350 and the call is 330ish - so 1/2-20/330, so we need the right call (roughly) 45/100 times for it to be +VE.
    This correct?
  16. #16
    elipsesjeff's Avatar
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    Is this decision much easier with AK or AQ? What kicker makes you hate your hand?


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  17. #17
    Normally I fold this, but the fact that the opponent posted a dead blind UTG leads me to believe this will be some overaggro monkey trying to win his dead blind back a certain percentage of the time. Not sure if the percentage is high enough. We do have about 22% equity vs 66 too.
  18. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by PokerMuzz
    I'm no poker math WIZARD, but..would we need to call this correctly over 20 times out of 21 for this to be the right play?
    lol no

    Pot is $17. He pushes $550. We have to call $550 (dont remember exact numbers but go with this).

    We arent calling $550 to win the $17 pot, we are calling $550 to win his $550 push + the $17 pot.

    You NEVER have to win more than 50% of the time to make it a profitable call.
    gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.

    bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
  19. #19
    You have to be right 89% of the time for you to call so its an easy fold.

    wait.....
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  20. #20
    Muzzard's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pelion
    Quote Originally Posted by PokerMuzz
    I'm no poker math WIZARD, but..would we need to call this correctly over 20 times out of 21 for this to be the right play?
    lol no

    Pot is $17. He pushes $550. We have to call $550 (dont remember exact numbers but go with this).

    We arent calling $550 to win the $17 pot, we are calling $550 to win his $550 push + the $17 pot.

    You NEVER have to win more than 50% of the time to make it a profitable call.
    If you read my next message, I think you'll find I've corrected myself

    EDIT: As for my math, yes your right now I think about it... Its not 340/17... His stack is already in the pot so its roughly 350 and the call is 330ish - so 1/2-20/330, so we need the right call (roughly) 45/100 times for it to be +VE.
    This correct?
  21. #21
    I call and don't think about it much if I lose.
  22. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
    If he is willing to bluff 170BB into a pot for 10BB, then make him pay later.
    This thinking is so wrong.
  23. #23
    I puke, then call, everytime.
  24. #24
    Renton's Avatar
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    Board: Ac Ah 6s
    Dead:

    equity win tie pots won pots tied
    Hand 0: 45.817% 32.46% 13.36% 42420 17454.00 { AJo }
    Hand 1: 54.183% 40.83% 13.36% 53352 17454.00 { AA, 66, A9s+, A9o+ }

    if he pushes A8, A7, etc, then we make a ton of money with this call.
  25. #25
    I think KK or QQ are also in his range. I see plenty of donks not reraise them pre but then ridiculously overvalue them post flop.

    Oh yeah and i call this.

    also think about that this is possibly a misclick and that normally a lead out on this flop is weak.
  26. #26
    Don't fold good hands to erratic/terrible players.
  27. #27
    koolmoe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Renton
    Board: Ac Ah 6s
    Dead:

    equity win tie pots won pots tied
    Hand 0: 45.817% 32.46% 13.36% 42420 17454.00 { AJo }
    Hand 1: 54.183% 40.83% 13.36% 53352 17454.00 { AA, 66, A9s+, A9o+ }

    if he pushes A8, A7, etc, then we make a ton of money with this call.
    Don't forget A6
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  28. #28
    Ummmmm, how can AA be in his range?
  29. #29
    koolmoe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bigspenda73
    Ummmmm, how can AA be in his range?
    Doesn't matter. Pokerstove is smart enough to figure that out.
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  30. #30
    Looking at those PokerStove numbers, this is a marginal fold with AJ and a marginal call with AQ if you assume he never does this without at least an ace. If he's ever doing this with total crap, that swings this to a call.
  31. #31
    Quote Originally Posted by koolmoe
    Quote Originally Posted by bigspenda73
    Ummmmm, how can AA be in his range?
    Doesn't matter. Pokerstove is smart enough to figure that out.
    I know, I think KK/QQ needs to be in here at least in a discoutned sense.
  32. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by mcatdog
    Looking at those PokerStove numbers, this is a marginal fold with AJ and a marginal call with AQ if you assume he never does this without at least an ace. If he's ever doing this with total crap, that swings this to a call.
    If he does it with any ace or 66, it's obv an easy call. Not sure if that's what you meant.

    Code:
    Board: Ad Ah 6s
    Dead:  
    
                         	equity 	win 	tie 	      pots won 	pots tied	
    Hand 0: 	59.889%  	48.79% 	11.10% 	         23667 	     5385.00   { AcJh }
    Hand 1: 	40.111%  	29.01% 	11.10% 	         14073 	     5385.00   { AA, 66, A2s+, A2o+ }
    Poker is freedom
  33. #33
    I was assuming that he wouldn't make the pre-flop call with some of the worst aces in the deck. You're correct that if he calls with any ace and shoves this flop with all of them, it's a call. Perhaps with a 45% VPIP, he doesn't fold an ace pre-flop.
  34. #34
    nutsinho's Avatar
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    "45/7 donkish" is not enough info to make this a call. If you've compiled no other evidence that he might show crap/medium strength hands after making this sort of bet, this seems like an annoying but clear fold.
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  35. #35
    Renton's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by koolmoe
    Quote Originally Posted by mcatdog
    Looking at those PokerStove numbers, this is a marginal fold with AJ and a marginal call with AQ if you assume he never does this without at least an ace. If he's ever doing this with total crap, that swings this to a call.
    If he does it with any ace or 66, it's obv an easy call. Not sure if that's what you meant.

    Code:
    Board: Ad Ah 6s
    Dead:  
    
                         	equity 	win 	tie 	      pots won 	pots tied	
    Hand 0: 	59.889%  	48.79% 	11.10% 	         23667 	     5385.00   { AcJh }
    Hand 1: 	40.111%  	29.01% 	11.10% 	         14073 	     5385.00   { AA, 66, A2s+, A2o+ }
    wow

    shocking that your only 60% vs this range. I guess it might just be a fold.
  36. #36
    If I'm playing Party 6max and some 45/7 does this I don't think I can fold but I'm not liking hitting that call button.
  37. #37
    No one has yet to mention how UNLIKELY opponent is to be holding an Ace in his hand. The chances you both hold an Ace and the flop comes AAx has got to be ridiculously small.

    I think this guy buys in full, posts, pushes, wins a pot, then leaves. You are so far ahead of his range and I think everyone is giving WAY too much credit to his possible holdings.
  38. #38
    Quote Originally Posted by bigspenda73
    No one has yet to mention how UNLIKELY opponent is to be holding an Ace in his hand. The chances you both hold an Ace and the flop comes AAx has got to be ridiculously small.
    The chance of any specific situation occuring is pretty small. QQ vs AA preflop is pretty unlikely but once that guy starts raising and reraising it becomes more and more likely. You cant just go by how likely he is to hold certain hands without considering his actions. (also trips over trips happens quite alot if you play many hands).

    @PokerMuzz: You cheated lol. You edited while i was typing.
    gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.

    bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
  39. #39
    I can't believe there's been so much discussion about this hand.

    If you have any sort of history with villain, or if villain has shown any evidence of being tricky postflop, then it's at least a decision.

    Vs an unknown with bad stats, this isn't even close in my book.

    FWIW I've seen donks (even donks w bigstacks) showup here w 77-KK, Ax but never ever in my entire life have I seen then play 666AA in this manner.

    My PT db is much smaller than every credible poster on this site but I've railed/sweated probably 10x as many hands as I've played and I would shit myself if villain showed up with 666AA in this spot.

    AQ is the very top of his range imo.
    when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
  40. #40
    I don't claim to play at the levels of anyone in this thread, as I'm just getting used to 6 max... but how can this NOT be an easy call? If we lose, we lose...

    UTG is 45/7... which means he's seeing a pretty fair amount of flops with Ax type hands... he's posted the blind OOP which makes me think he's eager to play, and doesn't defend it, which makes a me really think that his hand can't be that strong...

    How can we consider folding

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  41. #41
    You need more than "villain seems donkish" to call here imo. If he has never made an overbet before I let this go. I call with AK+ without any more information I think.

    At the same time against most players with those stats I snap call this, I'm just saying this is useless speculation unless I have seen villain play.
    I got more flava than fruitstripe gum
  42. #42
    nutsinho's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sauce123
    You need more than "villain seems donkish" to call here imo. If he has never made an overbet before I let this go. I call with AK+ without any more information I think.

    At the same time against most players with those stats I snap call this, I'm just saying this is useless speculation unless I have seen villain play.
    thank you, wholly agree
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  43. #43
    aislephive's Avatar
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    I've posted this hand on a few forums and I'd say 80-90% of people said they would call. And almost 100% of respected/well known posters/players said they would call.

    I DID call, I really didn't feel great about it but for the reasons most people have said they would call is why I called.

    I did lose the hand, as the turn and river blanked he showed 66. I felt pretty dumb after I called and got owned so hard, but I still think it was the right call.
  44. #44
    Quote Originally Posted by aislephive
    I've posted this hand on a few forums and I'd say 80-90% of people said they would call. And almost 100% of respected/well known posters/players said they would call.

    I DID call, I really didn't feel great about it but for the reasons most people have said they would call is why I called.

    I did lose the hand, as the turn and river blanked he showed 66. I felt pretty dumb after I called and got owned so hard, but I still think it was the right call.
    ***shits his pants***
    when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
  45. #45
    Quote Originally Posted by bigspenda73
    God isn't this just awesome with 66.
    can you quote yourself?
  46. #46
    This is a pretty stupid way to play 66, but when you have a monster and your opponent has a slightly lesser monster, you're probably going to stack him even if you play the hand in a stupid manner.
  47. #47
    i just realized :

    villain was obv protecting vs potential 2-outers that were bound to hit on turn/river.

    vnh villain
    when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
  48. #48
    elipsesjeff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mcatdog
    This is a pretty stupid way to play 66, but when you have a monster and your opponent has a slightly lesser monster, you're probably going to stack him even if you play the hand in a stupid manner.
    No way OP stacks off 165 BB in this pot in any other manner than this. I think it's rather brilliant.


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  49. #49
    Jeff, the push is completely terrible. I just did a little EV calculation and no matter how generous the assumptions I make, the villain loses a LOT of value by open-pushing. How often does OP have a hand that can even think about calling a push? Maybe 10% of the time, even less if OP is folding some of the weaker aces (which he would). How often does the villain lose the additional action that OP would have given with the rest of the hands in his range? I just don't understand why you're defending this play because I'm sure you would never make such a horrid play yourself.
  50. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by mcatdog
    Jeff, the push is completely terrible. I just did a little EV calculation and no matter how generous the assumptions I make, the villain loses a LOT of value by open-pushing. How often does OP have a hand that can even think about calling a push? Maybe 10% of the time, even less if OP is folding some of the weaker aces (which he would). How often does the villain lose the additional action that OP would have given with the rest of the hands in his range? I just don't understand why you're defending this play because I'm sure you would never make such a horrid play yourself.
    how much value would he lose from say a KK? Maybe a flop cbet and a river value bet but thats about it, not more than 25 BB. To villain, our Hero has an Ace in his range here even though 2 are showing on the flop. Of those aces a high % of them are going to be weighted in teh good kicker category, capable of making "the call."

    That being said, you ever heard the theory that every time you raise preflop your villain puts you on AK ? It being an open push just makes it that much more donkier and harder for you to fold. He put OP on the ace, open pushed, and was correct. If our hero doesn't have an ace at best they could think they're getting a cbet and no more.


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  51. #51
    What % of the time do you think OP has a hand that can call here? Saying "he put OP on an ace and was correct" doesn't really mean anything.
  52. #52
    I fold this, I only call if I've seen villain open shove less than an orbit ago (happens from time to time, means they just want to splash). With AK I probably call too. I really don't understand how everyone can say call so easily here. The few times I do look up crazy strength lines (when I'm on tilt probably), I always run into the nuts.. is this different for everyone else? If someone has sucky preflop stats, you're just gonna pay him off postflop no matter what?...
  53. #53
    nutsinho's Avatar
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    almost 100% of "respected posters" ( i assume you are referring to 2p2) do not respect 200nl 6m players' ranges, particularly ones with donkish stats.
    if i hadnt seen this guy make a horribly out of line postflop bet before id pretty much say nice boat and fold without a lot of thought. donks are usually donks because they play too passively post flop, calling down with too much crap and not gettiing enough value/making their good hands transparent. when one of these players suddenly makes a weird bet like this you should thank him for being so bad; you just made a lot of money. BY FOLDING.
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  54. #54
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    Quoting myself, before I knew the results
    Is the Hero folding this flop to a $12 bet without an Ace? Probably...He may RR a PP here, but if it gets pushed over then its a clear fold.

    SO if I've hit a boat on the flop (66/A6) - and he's folding anyway if he doesn't have an Ace. Lets make it dam tricky for him to lay down any Ace with our current donk image for maximum $$ by open pushing the flop.
    I imagine that the Hero's range isn't just Ax wide for preflop raising, but if he doesn't have an A in the hand he's folding anyway. With the PFR, if he does have the Ace, its going to be A10+ so tricky for him to fold to the push with our image, but I imagine the hero would fold A10. AJ+ is more tricky

    If I was the Villain and had a LAGG/Donk image this would be my thought process.
  55. #55
    You guys who think open-shoving with the boat is good, can one of you please do an EV calculation that shows that it's anywhere close to being good because your arguments aren't very persuasive. "If he has an ace I'm going to take his stack and post it in the pwnage thread" isn't an argument.
  56. #56
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    i still call

    This very well may be the case. I never claimed that we would always be good here, or that we would be good the vast majority of the time.
  57. #57
    The thing is, even if your not killing the guy, you have a decent amount of outs.
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  58. #58
    Quote Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan
    The thing is, even if your not killing the guy, you have a decent amount of outs.
    How so? If he has 66, we have 4 outs (16% to win), if he has A6/AQ/AK, we have 3 outs (12%). AA we're dead (<1%). So against all the hands that beat us, we're drawing very slim. I totally agree with what nutsinho said. Donks play bad, because they do stuff like open shove here, so we can fold. Sometimes they'll slowplay a monster, sometimes overplay it. I'm always happy about that. It becomes a problem when their lines merge and you can't tell what they have anymore.
  59. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by jackvance
    AA we're dead (<1%).
    Actually we have at least 50% equity vs AA.
  60. #60
    Quote Originally Posted by Renton
    Quote Originally Posted by jackvance
    AA we're dead (<1%).
    Actually we have at least 50% equity vs AA.
    Heh, oops I'm an idiot ofc he can't have AA, was probably thinking about an other hand..
  61. #61
    When did Party stop dealing 5 aces/deck?
    when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
  62. #62
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    Quote Originally Posted by nutsinho
    almost 100% of "respected posters" ( i assume you are referring to 2p2) do not respect 200nl 6m players' ranges, particularly ones with donkish stats.
    if i hadnt seen this guy make a horribly out of line postflop bet before id pretty much say nice boat and fold without a lot of thought. donks are usually donks because they play too passively post flop, calling down with too much crap and not gettiing enough value/making their good hands transparent. when one of these players suddenly makes a weird bet like this you should thank him for being so bad; you just made a lot of money. BY FOLDING.
    I agree. People are making too many post flop decisions in this thread with villian's preflop stats, which are on the passive side as it is anyway (assuming I am now familiar with reading PT stats finally)


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  63. #63
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    Quote Originally Posted by mcatdog
    You guys who think open-shoving with the boat is good, can one of you please do an EV calculation that shows that it's anywhere close to being good because your arguments aren't very persuasive. "If he has an ace I'm going to take his stack and post it in the pwnage thread" isn't an argument.
    A lot of it depends on Hero's image, Villain's image, if Villain knows what his image is, and Hero's isolating range.

    Anyway, if Hero has anything but an A, Villain probably wins $17 more at most. If Hero has a big A (likely since he raised preflop), then Villain is staking his claim to Hero's $329 left in his stack.

    Since Villain will lose every time to Hero's AA and A6 and 23% of the time to Ax, Hero's call is worth no more than .54*329 or about 178. This means Hero must call more than 17/195 or about 9% of the time with a hand that is behind. Hero only needs to have Ax 9%/y% of the time where y% is the percentage of time that Hero calls with an A. I think it's a pretty good push if Villain has a bad image, Hero is tilting, or Hero just makes loose calls on a consistent basis.
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  64. #64
    Quote Originally Posted by koolmoe
    Since Villain will lose every time to Hero's AA and A6 and 23% of the time to Ax, Hero's call is worth no more than .54*329 or about 178. This means Hero must call more than 17/195 or about 9% of the time with a hand that is behind.
    I was thinking along the same lines, except you're not taking into account the fact that if OP has an ace and the villain plays the hand like a normal person, he's still going to win a whole lot more than $17 from OP. It's going to be hard for OP to get away from his hand without putting at least $100 into the pot. I think OP has to call significantly more than 9% here for the push to be good, and a loose button raiser simply won't have a hand that can call here that often.
  65. #65
    With AJ you have approximately 4.5 outs, because of any board, if pairs on the river will give you a higher boat, versus 66.
    But yeah I agree with a fold.
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  66. #66
    Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

    MP ($72.64)
    CO ($137.80)
    Button ($220.53)
    SB ($55.60)
    BB ($217.70)
    Hero ($298.30)

    Preflop: Hero is UTG with 3, 3. SB posts a blind of $1.
    Hero calls $2, MP calls $2, CO calls $2, Button calls $2, SB (poster) completes, BB checks.

    Flop: ($12) 3, A, A (6 players)
    SB checks, BB checks, Hero calls $296.30 (All-In), MP calls $70.64 (All-In), CO calls $135.80 (All-In), Button folds, SB folds, BB folds.

    Turn: ($514.74) K (3 players, 3 all-in)

    River: ($514.74) 4 (3 players, 3 all-in)

    Final Pot: $514.74

    Results below:
    Hero has 3d 3h (full house, threes full of aces).
    MP has As 7c (three of a kind, aces).
    CO has Ad 7h (three of a kind, aces).
    Outcome: Hero wins $514.74.
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