Drug smugglers and Feds gameplay thread

[rong]

Vote count update

Bikes: 6 (Gator, Wuf, Aubrey, JV, Imsavy, MMM)
Rilla: 2 (Jyms, Keith)
Jyms: 2 (Rilla, Daven)
Keith: 1 (Gabe)

Approx 23 hrs left of day 3.

[wufwugy]

I think JV is a wolf so often. His fatal flaw is that he's a terrible liar, so his wolf games never involve much hunting. Instead, he just says a lot of meta about stuff, and even now he's saying how he puts too much effort into this game, but he hasn't ITT, so it has to be in wolfchat.

rescind bikes lynch jv

I don't think I'm in a position to opine about anybody else. I sorta agree with JKDS on everything except the idea that Rilla is wolfing. There is a good possibility that MMM is only putting in the effort he is because he's a wolf. He stated he's not that interested, and when that happens, usually they just straight up disappear (kiwimark).


Rilla, it's standard Aubrey


Dan, I was trying to figure out what could be done to compensate the wolves and I came up with pretty much the same idea. It has to be an extra kill since the lookup is an extra confirmed villager. Overall, this works out in the wolves favor since by Day 4, there will be 2 confirmed out of 12 instead of what would have happened without the Gabe lookup: 2 confirmed out of 13

[rong]

Yeah, but I'm happy with that now as a bit of a punishment as well.

[jackvance]

Oh, there are plenty of reasons JV. That one, I thought, opened nicely.

It just looks as if you're trying to set traps all game long. I dunno how to explain it better. If you want to know why I remain sceptical, I don't remember you playing a villager like that in the past. That post you just made about me was another good example, you say that I should have cleared you as a villager, and because I haven't, I'm a wolf. It feels like you're trying to trap me in some kind of circular reasoning where you are always a villager..

[wufwugy]

I do not think bikes is a wolf. His wagon has gotten too much steam twice in a row

[JKDS]

I don't like that wolfy ppl are on his wagon. Mmm is also looking very much like the standard wolf. He's intentionally being wolfy? Unvoting rilla "for now" while stating his reasoning for a rilla Lynch disappeared?

Lynch mmm with me. I would like to use my one time here.

Lynch mmm

[wufwugy]

If someone lynches bikes right now it's 8 and the day is over. I am on rilla and am willing to do this but I am also willing to give others a chance to look at their votes.

woah wait it got that high?

yeah bikes is never a wolf. unless he told wolfchat he's done and to sacrifice him

[Luco]

Wuf, MMM is nearly always town here:

OngBonga has a lot more posts. Are you saying that Ongie's posts are not deranged and confused?

You hear that Ongie. Someone "understands" you.

Would he really say 'hey Keith, why didn't you vote my fellow wolf?'

[JKDS]

Oh yeah, wuf is confirmed Lmao.

Wuf, aubery is town? Are you super sure? You'd have played with her more than me, and pay more attn to her posts. I can trust your read on her if that's what you think.

Mmm should go now though.

[JKDS]

Wuf, MMM is nearly always town here:



Would he really say 'hey Keith, why didn't you vote my fellow wolf?'

Another question though is why was mmm so observant regarding ong?

[JKDS]

woah wait it got that high?

yeah bikes is never a wolf. unless he told wolfchat he's done and to sacrifice him

Unlikely considering dozer's post. He's town imo.

[Luco]

Another question though is why was mmm so observant regarding ong?

I think it's prolly just unfortunate as he explained.

[GatorJH]

I do not think bikes is a wolf. His wagon has gotten too much steam twice in a row

Yeah, but what's also interesting is that Bikes isn't here defending himself at all. I would think even a villager would throw out the standard "meh, I am just a villager guys" post, but nothing.

[GatorJH]

Unlikely considering dozer's post. He's town imo.

Ohhhh, is that why he isn't posting now? I thought that was an explanation for earlier in the game.

[wufwugy]

Wuf, aubery is town? Are you super sure?

I didn't say that. This game is currently the least villagery one she's played, but not by a whole lot. I think she'll be a hard to spot wolf because she knows how to develop points, argue them, and do so creatively. Also she knows how to learn and change

I don't really have much idea how she'll play wolf. She's comfortable with the game now.

[GatorJH]

Unlikely considering dozer's post. He's town imo.

Ohhhh, is that why he isn't posting now? I thought that was an explanation for earlier in the game.

[a500lbgorilla]

see thats what i mean about you, the wolves aren't gonna eat you and you know it , they have a whole list of known villagers to work through first. You are putting yourself out there to be eaten by the wolves....its a complete worthless gesture , because if you are a villager it ain't gonna happen , and if you are a wolf it aint gonna happen.

I'm called for the village to lynch me today so that i die and protect the pussy killer. rongs new vig shot defeats the object of putting the village in a mathematical lock position ,but if the village want to help protect the pussy killer by lynching me today i'm fine with it. You haven't even discussed why i would volunteer to die as a wolf.a wolf just wouldn't do it .

Keith, I haven't put out any thoughts on it because I have no thoughts on it. I'm not going to squeeze myself through your hole for your pleasure. Neither am I going to give you thoughts that I don't have. And I'm trying to de-couple from you so I can figure out what the fuck our conversations are on about and I can't do that when every time you make a point, I can feel my blood pressure double because you're so obviously off the mark. Because yeah, I know that the wolves won't lynch me tonight, that wasn't what MMM was on about. He was questioning my play style all game. I couldn't know day 1 what day 3 was going to look like, so in his eyes my style is suspicious because it doesn't seem to make sense not to try to build some suspicion to keep the wolves from hunting you.

[GatorJH]

Yeah, I just went back and read it. I'm still not convinced that makes him officially town but I guess we should wait for him to get back so rescind bikes for now.

[jackvance]

I think JV is a wolf so often. His fatal flaw is that he's a terrible liar, so his wolf games never involve much hunting. Instead, he just says a lot of meta about stuff, and even now he's saying how he puts too much effort into this game, but he hasn't ITT, so it has to be in wolfchat.

Lol. It feels like I've put a lot of effort in this game though, although apparently it doesn't look like it. But aren't you guys putting me under the microscope too much? For example, MMM just posted that he is putting way too much time in the game, and wants to reduce it to 1-2 hours per hour. While he has barely posted. On my part, I've been expressly putting my opinions of everyone out there today because everyone was saying I was being too guarded. Double standards no? Although I agree I'm a sensible lynch.

[Luco]

I didn't say that. This game is currently the least villagery one she's played, but not by a whole lot. I think she'll be a hard to spot wolf because she knows how to develop points, argue them, and do so creatively. Also she knows how to learn and change

I don't really have much idea how she'll play wolf. She's comfortable with the game now.

I summarised this earlier as 'if she's a wolf she knows what Aubrey villager sounds like'

[wufwugy]

Yeah, but what's also interesting is that Bikes isn't here defending himself at all. I would think even a villager would throw out the standard "meh, I am just a villager guys" post, but nothing.

Bikes doesn't care about this game. I don't know why he even signs up. The only time he posted somewhat regularly was when he was a wolf about to get lynched

[wufwugy]

I summarised this earlier as 'if she's a wolf she knows what Aubrey villager sounds like'

Yes now that she's finally comfortable in here I expect her to be a harder wolf to spot than most

[GatorJH]

Bikes doesn't care about this game. I don't know why he even signs up. The only time he posted somewhat regularly was when he was a wolf about to get lynched

If he doesn't care about the game why put enough effort in to get a message to us through Dozer unless he is a Fed and is just trying to buy time until he can get back?

[a500lbgorilla]

so do I, and I have also noticed that rilla has become less involved in saying my name every chance he gets for the first time in a few days since I bolded him and a few others thought the same. Rilla is acting very wolf like in trying to control wagons, he doesn't seem to be his usual self at all and I really think we need to look at lynching him.

I rolled into today with all the confidence in the world and rebuffed by every villager - got to take a moment to go through a lot of thoughts to rebuild my bluster. I haven't been able to control wagons. Bikes and I are the top two. To many observes, this seems like the last thing I'm driving for.

And 'my ususal self' is funny. I play villager this way every time.

Every

Time.

I'm not even wrong.

[wufwugy]

RE: MMM thing. Ong doesn't shy away from his fellow wolves saying stuff about him. It's possible (likely) he told the chat that attacking him is okay and sometimes even encouraged. I don't particularly want to read MMM's comments about Ong as being a villager

JV's my no.1, MMM my no.2, don't have a no.3

[wufwugy]

If he doesn't care about the game why put enough effort in to get a message to us through Dozer unless he is a Fed and is just trying to buy time until he can get back?

WTF happened with dozer?

[wufwugy]

weird how did i miss that first time through

i dont know what to make of the dozer thing

[a500lbgorilla]

@rilla/JV/Gator

What do you think of wuf's case against daven in post #100?

Hoopy died for this post.

[a500lbgorilla]

lynch JV

[a500lbgorilla]

Ehh am I seeing this right 2 quick votes for Gabe of all people? And how am I not involved Jyms? Also seems a bit like he contradicts his own strategy, or thinks that what he says doesn't apply to him.

This is a post that rings off the surface of the game loudly to me. He can't commit to any aspect of anything he sees, so everything is calibrated 'down' and becomes a question.

[gabe]

rescind keith and lynch jackvance

bikes is a wasted lynch now. i dont even understand why people are on him

i like rilla's posts so lets not kill him

[a500lbgorilla]

Luco used the word "towning" like a vet player in his first game. It hadn't been used before and we believed, as rong jumped on and pushed about, that he was coached in teh wolves thread by JKDS. But turned out JKDS and rong were the wolves and the "coached" luco was a villager at the end game when I lynched luco over rong.

I just want to bump this up as my jyms 'control'.

[gabe]

i edited a post to clarify a sentence and i was already a confirmed villager. fwiw i always never edit anything that affects the game's integrity, usually just iphone autocorrect typos or ill realize a sentence's word order doesnt make sense


but the real reason u gotta give the feds an extra shot is because some info got leaked when it shouldnt !

[a500lbgorilla]

I'm looking and not hating the savy idea either when looking at it. I just flat refuse to lynch a noob day one. I've made, and seen a lot of wolfy things by noobs trying hard to be helpful and get involved

This happened right when I was prepping a big push for jyms, so it fell into my blind spot.

[Luco]

Going to bed. Need to review jv and jyms interaction in the morning.

[a500lbgorilla]

Dunno about Eugmac though. He's kinda being who he is, that's what it looks like to me. But because of his style of posting (or, his personality) he'll make a very dangerous and difficult to spot wolf.

GONNNNNNGGGGGGG

[a500lbgorilla]

I think it's been a great day 1 so far, so much to look back to when the game progresses.

@wuf, don't you think the rilla and bikes thing would be a bit much for them to do on purpose, I mean, you can't really tie them together like that. Like I have said before, tying people together rarely works out. Sometimes, sure, but not like this imo. Also Rilla so far seems villagery to me. There's noone I've been able to strongly put in the villager camp so far, just some intuitions here and there, and I'm having a bit of a rong-like suspicion of Luco. I mean with that, how suspicious I was of Rong last game because he pooled the wool over everyone's eyes so firmly the game before. He did turn out to be a wolf again, as was Luco that game, and it showed how tricky Luco can be. But I think he also has the potential to be a strong villager so he has that going for him in my eyes.

JV opens the thread talking about previous game reads and continues to make reads in this game based on how he remembers himself thinking in old games. I see myself struggling to be a wolf in this post. Not a gong, though.

[a500lbgorilla]

We should consolidate at this point with only like 7hr left.

Gabe is a bad lynch this early, the votes on him are wasted and need to move.

wuf lynch, no reason that I can see for it.

daven lynch isn't based on much, he explained himself fairly well.

Hoopy may have extra died for this post.

[GatorJH]

Since we are not lynching Bikes today I need to re-read the initial posts from today as I vaguely remember wolfish stuff from rilla and Jyms.

[GatorJH]

Hoopy may have extra died for this post.

Rilla, you must be at a MUCH higher level of thinking than I am because I have no clue how the posts you quoted got Hoopy killed. Hell, I am still struggling to figure out why the wolves didn't kill off a confirmed villager last night as confirmed villagers are so terribly bad for wolves.

[a500lbgorilla]

"I should be posting a reaction, but I have nothing to say. Look at how things happened. I don't know about them, but oh wow.

I'll now advance a general, philosophical platitude in the same vein as I have done yesterday without tying it down to any concrete aspect of the game before us.

Oh, yes, I was in error. I see that now that my error is highlighted. I could have defended my initial thought but I didn't actually have one."

These jyms posts rang out to me when I saw them on day 2. Though the post that fell in my blind spot does have a villager flavor to it. Still, some of my case on him can be witnessed here.

[a500lbgorilla]

Rilla, you must be at a MUCH higher level of thinking than I am because I have no clue how the posts you quoted got Hoopy killed. Hell, I am still struggling to figure out why the wolves didn't kill off a confirmed villager last night as confirmed villagers are so terribly bad for wolves.

Hoopy knew wuf was a villager.

[bikes]

Hey guys super sorry ny cable provider has been sucking lately and I dont get 3or4g at my house. Internets likely to be down for a few days. Super super sorry

[GatorJH]

Well, the first one didn't pan out. When I first read the following from rilla I thought it might have been a pre-made wolf post assuming the Gabe lookup had been blocked, while Wuf had just posted that he did get a Gabe lookup.

Then I noticed it was probably a timing issue as wuf's post was just 15 minutes before this one and was actually pretty easy to miss the first time around.

Gabe is tough because he doesn't possess an 'honest' voice. Or really, the inverse of that. When he's being leading or deceitful, he's so palms-up, open arms, wide-eyed, exposed neck about it that you have nothing. It's both too easy to clamp down on him and, at the same time, you feel like you're biting down on air. With that said, his post attacking eug screams villager to me. I can't see it any other way. He's taking a clear and penetrating look at eugmac. He's not leading the conclusions, he's reading into the work, and he's doing what I'd expect him to do - push an early hint at weakness to expose a greater one.

[a500lbgorilla]

villager requires the most thought of all. it's so frustrating. i wish it didn't involve thought, haha. that would be easy.

there's something about jyms that seems more sloppy villager than wolf - i think it's because his frustration rings true to me. at the same time, it's way possible he's a wolf, tried a ballsy strategy, and is backpedaling like crazy. everyone's kind of dogpiling on him so it's likely all the wolves did to save face.

so lynch jyms

and i agree with bikes - a strong villager should absolutely sacrifice themselves so we can have a lock villager. it's pretty much win/win 'cause the only alternative to villager is wolf. i'm curious to see who offers.

Parts of this post says that aubrey is a villager to me. Mostly that the jyms of this game exists as profile in her head. His attitude and how the game has moved around him are seen.

[GatorJH]

Hoopy knew wuf was a villager.

Ahhhh, I see it now. If they picked out Hoopy based on this (or even a couple of posts) then there must be a damn good "specials" finder on the wolf team. The only people I consider in this area are Gabe (confirmed villager), jv, Jyms and yourself. Because you pointed it out I will put you in villager status for now. Jyms has looked wolfish to me already so I am going to review his and jv's posts to see if I can pick anything up.

[a500lbgorilla]

Well, the first one didn't pan out. When I first read the following from rilla I thought it might have been a pre-made wolf post assuming the Gabe lookup had been blocked, while Wuf had just posted that he did get a Gabe lookup.

Then I noticed it was probably a timing issue as wuf's post was just 15 minutes before this one and was actually pretty easy to miss the first time around.

Parts of it were rendered from scratchings I had made on saturday. I was really eager to get into the thread almost all Sunday. I wanted to just fire off all the wolf names and other great reads ASAP. As the game delayed into the afternoon and I started drinking, I tripped over myself a bit at the starting line.

[a500lbgorilla]

Wuf outing is definitely the right play, I was already thinking that a mass outing can force the game to be won quickly, conceptually speaking. After the day 1 villager lynch, 18 players, of which 4 are wolves, leaving 5/14 or over one third of the villagers specials. And killing a strong villager like Gabe to revive him is kinda dumb imo because the wolves have a roleblock. But I don't think it matters too much now because the wolf team is already collapsing.

Ong is outed as a wolf, JV is talking about games that aren't this one.

[a500lbgorilla]

Daven is totally a villager for the reasons JKDS stated, no way he'd attack an actual fellow wolf this early in the game.

Daven is a villager for reasons that are not mine.

[a500lbgorilla]

I don't think the reviver is at risk really, but at the same time, reviving eugmac is never much of a mistake either. He was a very critical and observant player last game.

"Ah yes, the reviver role. I suggest we do both things and neither of them simultaneously."

Also talking about players in terms of games that aren't this one.

[GatorJH]

I'm not sure how the nights events go in order but they may not have killed wuf thinking he would have killed gabe if he got the shot. Good gamble on the Feds part, they got one.

I'm town rilla, you need to see that.

This was the first post that I found suspicious. I have noticed that the wolves sometimes like telling the village what they want the village to think the wolves strategy was. Kinda like a misdirection play. If that was the case why wouldn't the wolves just nom JKDS?

Also, his last sentence just reeks of "yeah, bitches we found the seer" bragging to me.

[a500lbgorilla]

It was at this time on my read-through on Saturday that I was thinking to myself "Holy shit, I've got one. Along with Jyms, I can basically walk out all 3 wolves if I start shuffling people aggressively into camps."

[a500lbgorilla]

Bleh. This is my third game with jyms and yes I've seen him drive and push but I've also seen him sit back, go on 'cruize' and let others start the wagons in both prior games. It's just not that out of character.

Plus, Ong went for him pretty hard over the course of several posts.

Plus, he was using language and terminology on day 1 that would be difficult for a wolf to post (such as 'I was avoiding heat, plain and simple' or his whole admission about posting less and stuff). It's either a series of bold admissions, or he's a villager.

I see what you're getting at but hmm, yeah naw not today.

Luco is a villager, btw. He has a lot of posts, but why not throw it out there.

[a500lbgorilla]

a lot of 'good' posts.

[GatorJH]

To be fair, Me and Ong have clashed every game we play, he always thinks I am a wolf and this game he was.

This one also struck me as weird because it seems like something they may have discussed in the wolfden. People also pickup on games when players don't go after other players they normally go after. They may have realized this could happen and decided to sort of go after each other early to dispel the conversation. IIRC they didn't hit each other that hard at all.

[a500lbgorilla]

Ya on day one post one maybe? Every game bigred is a target on day one early then coasts for a week while we all play the game.

I see no reason not to lynch ONG. As long as he's alive he posts his observations against the town in the wolf den. That means we are working against 3 instead of two. He's experienced and could be the only experienced if MMM and some other player are with him. Ong needs to go tonight

See, this [and the post a couple back] is jyms talking about surface stuff. The stuff right infront of the village, and about the wolf den. I don't want to do what I did before and just let this build into my jyms-conviction. But I find this to be a post that's showing his head isn't in the game.

[GatorJH]

I'm off to look at jv's posts now.

[a500lbgorilla]

How do they contradict each other. They both say lynch ONG

lol, but this is sort of during a period after his posts about just running through Ong. He's made like 5 posts about just nothing at all.

[a500lbgorilla]

We will also kick ourselves if Savy is a wolf with MMM, pascal and ONG. We take out ONG and it would leave a few rookie wolves with two dead in one night. Can you spell panic?

He's talking about this game, yes, but it's just a list. I would have keyed off on this too.

[GatorJH]

People last game were saying ong is pretty good, but personally I still need to be convinced. He has shown he can think the game through like the best of em, but he can also get wrong ideas stuck in his head so fiercely. He said last game he was working on that, but he got killed so early. We'll have to see.

Ong's bandwagon was taking off here when he posted this. Ong added on to it just 6 minutes later so this could have been staged.

[a500lbgorilla]

Hm, one of bikes and aubrey, possibly both but that would mean bikes tried to throw aubrey under the bus, doesn't seem that likely. Daven is being a bit strange, but like I said before most likely villager. Then some open options for Hoopy (I always find him wolfy), MMM (I don't know him), Jyms (being so.. mysterious). Playing in the micromillions on stars atm so have to focus on that.

A beautiful play by JKDS to get JV to show just how little he's taken from the thread so far. I'm done with JV at this point.

[a500lbgorilla]

Sorry to everyone for what I have done to the thread, but rereading the thing is a chore so reading the reread needs to burden you all in equal measure.

[GatorJH]

lynch bikes

Gotta keep that meta rolling.

Jumps to Bikes without much reasoning.

[GatorJH]

I dunno, how to put it, he doesn't look particularly villagery to me. But I'm not sure what his current wolf game would look like. Have to see more is my stance if I have to take one I guess.

This must be one of those posts you were talking about (He is talking about Daven here) where he is just on the fringe of a commitment.

[wufwugy]

im super convinced jv is a wolf

[wufwugy]

This must be one of those posts you were talking about (He is talking about Daven here) where he is just on the fringe of a commitment.

yeah he asked lots of questions, said lots of "not sure what to do"s and "that's weird"s

[JKDS]

I can jump on Jv. I don't trust gator yet though and am very hesitant to change my jyms read because of that. I'm trusting rilla more though.

[GatorJH]

Well I'm looking for an actual wagon to jump on, but I'll have to see which one. Problem we had last game was that anyone jumping on a wagon would become instantly suspicious, which lead to a game where the wolves would just sit back, while no wagons ever formed. So I'll be jumping on my fair share of wagons this game.

This also looks suspicious imo. He had just jumped off of the Bikes BW and voted for Keith, but now is undecided on which wagon he is jumping on?

[wufwugy]

i dont think jv likes being a wolf. he's like me, super honest and loves the detective aspect, not the trickery aspect

[GatorJH]

lynch bikes

I'll have to be going after people that try to hide behind the skirts of others, because that's such an easy way to shift responsibility. I saw Hoopy and Gator do it too. But bikes stands out atm because I don't really know how he plays and I'm suspicious because he showed up late and said he forgot. I mean he got a PM about the game no?

Also day 2 is strangely uneventful, not what I expected after the turmoil of day 1.

Seems to be an easy "out" to target. Maybe too easy?

[a500lbgorilla]

what ? did you miss the posts where i kept going at wuf because he was acting differently.......what do you know, he was a special.Did you miss where I said that i was on a tractor all day for the first 3days of this game. Have you missed the posts where i keep pointing out the inconsistencies/errors that Jyms has been making today.Now jyms suddenly is going to be absent because of a pool party. did you miss where i said we could lynch/revive gabe who wuf is now pointing at as one of his main suspects. Have you missed where i keep making the case for dragging this day out to give maximum chance for pascal to get involved. I do have a problem with wufs theory but it doesn't make it any better for you. Also ....you talk of missing in action.... where on earth is savvy

Keith seems alright, I guess. Plus per our discussion, other than being a roller coaster of fury and frustration, his thoughts seem to be his - whatever the hell that means.

[GatorJH]

Wuf outing is definitely the right play, I was already thinking that a mass outing can force the game to be won quickly, conceptually speaking. After the day 1 villager lynch, 18 players, of which 4 are wolves, leaving 5/14 or over one third of the villagers specials. And killing a strong villager like Gabe to revive him is kinda dumb imo because the wolves have a roleblock. But I don't think it matters too much now because the wolf team is already collapsing.

This is the most damning so far. I will rarely believe that wuf's outing there was the right thing to do yet jv is good with it? That doesn't sound like him. He also says the wolf team is collapsing but we have only found one of four so far so I am not sure where he would get this vibe.

[wufwugy]

it was definitely the right thing to do. under no circumstances could i just sit back because hoops would have thought it meant ong was a villager, and i couldnt attack ong because they knew he got looked up and they would just nom me

[GatorJH]

Good to see I'm still suspect whatever I do. But yeah, I've had tons of stuff going on in my life, my head's not really been into the game, sorry about that. Yesterday was a pretty weird day with MMM bolding daven while he said he knew he was a villager. And totally expected wuf to die, but instead they killed hoopy who was the seer.. pretty bizarre. I did put Hoopy in the either-special-or-wolf pile so atleast I was right about that. Gonna reread now.

I get kinda the same vibe out of this post that I did with Jyms post.

[wufwugy]

I get kinda the same vibe out of this post that I did with Jyms post.

notice he said "pretty bizarre"

he said "that's weird" in like seven other posts. this is wolf jv