Cooler of the year?

[griffey24]

Wait - You're saying that AA beating QQ is cooler of the year? lol

My AA just got cracked by JJ with the whole table in the pot. That's not even an amazing cooler.

Shit happens.

I believe the board in this hand MIGHT have something to do with calling it a cooler.

[Savy]

I believe the board in this hand MIGHT have something to do with calling it a cooler.

The funniest thing about this is

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/32...tiway-1391674/

[Nostalgia]

The funniest thing about this is

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/32...tiway-1391674/

You really find that funny?

No wonder you play games called "World War Werewolf". What a nerd.

[OngBonga]

It still seems flawed. Someone better than me explain why my logic is fucked please.

[BorisTheSpider]

It still seems flawed. Someone better than me explain why my logic is fucked please.

Looking at it from a different perspective, I shove for about pot giving him $44.60 to call into an $89.85 pot, almost exactly 2:1, so he needs to be winning 1/3 of the time to break even calling that.

If he beats only my bluffs (which I think we've agreed), taking your JJ+ range for me, I have 12 combos I could be bluffing with and 1 I'm value betting, so I'd need half a combo of bluffs (along with one of value bets), if I had more than 1/2 a combo of bluffs, calling would be +EV for villain. One time in 24 that I held JJ/KK I'd need to be bluffing.

That's only giving me a rather odd JJ+ range though, so let's be more realistic - I can definitely have A4s/A6s here (I disagree with the idea that I can't have A6s as I said earlier, maybe I should bet A6s on the flop here, but I often wouldn't), I don't think I can have AQs too often - value raising it OOP wouldn't be great (UTG was tight), and it's too good to bluff with preflop - I'd rather play a multiway pot, so since there's only 2 combos of it left anyway by the river, lets just ignore AQs and say, with weighting preflop, I can never have it.

Preflop, there's $1.85 in the pot, I 3bet to $2.75 making the pot $4.60, let's say a typical 4bet size here would be about $6, an extra $5.25 to UTG, so I lay him $4.60 to $5.25 on a bluff, so he can 4bet any two cards if I'm bluffing more than 53% of the time, so if I'm 3betting KK+ for value here, I can be bluffing about 12 combos, or say A4s-A6s. That also assumes that the BTN never calls a 4bet, and that I bluff this much vs. a tight UTG open and a cold call. I can have some more 3bet bluffs if I intend to 5bet bluff, but we're so deep he can flat a 5bet IP here, he was also tight UTG and he also was not someone I had a ton of hands on and I'd be more inclined to 5bet bluff if he was a reg and I thought he'd take a note, and also if I knew I could show down a bluff if called (ie. if we were 100bb deep and I could bluff jam), so we'll say I'm never 5bet bluffing here.

KK, as I'll expand on below, I think it's very unlikely that I can be betting the river with, and even if I am there's certainly no value in him raising.

A5s is very similar to KK here, almost the same hand in fact, so I think betting the river would be too thin, but meh - maybe KK could call one more small bet, but it's a very small part of his range as it would nearly always 4bet preflop.

So I can be betting the river with only AA, A4s and A6s if the preflop range I gave is correct. His stats were tight, and he's opened UTG, so if we weight A4s-A6s to say I only 3bet them about half the time, then my river range is even more value oriented.

Looking at that range, I have 1 combo of AA, 2 of A4s and 2 of A6s that I can be betting the river for value with. For him to pick off a bluff, I need to be bluffing with 3 combos. What that I intend to bluff with do I check back the flop though? Maybe if I can have AJo preflop, I check back the flop for pot control, then bet the turn, I then bet the river very very thinly indeed and _always_ decide to turn it into a bluff when he raises the river - that gives me 4 bluff combos, assuming that I have quite a lot of preflop bluffs in this spot. It seems unlikely.

How often do I check back the flop with KK?, if I then bet the turn really small and am called, is betting the river really small too thin - I think so, and he can't imagine that I'm then calling a big river raise, so we'd have to assume that I took this line of trying to get exceedingly thin value from something like JJ/TT on the river, then when he made a big river raise I decided to turn it into a bluff, but on this board how often can I expect that bluff to work?

I'm jamming for another $44.60 into a $45.25 pot, so I need a bluff to work half the time there to break even. I think that would be an exceedingly thin bluff this deep and on this board - he can have a lot that isn't the stone nuts that still is never folding.

I can actually have more boat combos than him after preflop, but if he calls QQ (which he did) what is he actually folding (and given zeebos law, what is it reasonable to expect he might fold?):

Assuming I hold KK he can have:

- 6 x AQ
- 3 x 44
- 3 x 66
- 3 x QQ
- 4 x AK
- We'll rule out AA for not 4betting preflop, which especially with so much dead money in the pot encouraging overcalls I think AA always 4bets pre here.

Ignoring his own bluffs (and KK beats most of them anyway, but I guess raising AJ here is a bluff, still, I think KK beats 95% of what we could call a bluff by him when he raises the river), he can have 19 combos he'd raise for value on the river, unless he's insane he can fold AK, but I don't know how much else. Zeebos law. Even if he folds 44 and 66, he folds 10 combos and calls with 9, which taking rake into account probably makes it a bad bluff, and certainly no better than a breakeven spot with unnecessary variance.

If I have JJ then AK is unblocked, now he can be raising:

- 6 x AQ
- 3 x 44
- 3 x 66
- 3 x QQ
- 8 x AK

Thats 23 total combos, of which AK/44/66 are 14 combos, so now he can fold about 61% of his river raising range, so the bluff is just about good here, making the very very ambitious assumption that he's ever capable of folding a boat.

[Lukie]

The most ambitious assumption you made in your analysis is not that he will be [raising and then] folding certain boats, it's that your ranges inherently imply that he will be playing all of those hands in the range the same way all of the time. He won't be.

Take QQ and AK for example. There are 4 streets of action that he can reasonably deviate and play one hand more likely than the other. The post-flop play especially makes AK unlikely. Highly doubt he checks the flop, calls the dinky bet on the turn, and then raises (??) the river with AK. QQ does reasonably fit though. {edit: talking about the hypothetical where you have JJ of course}

Or take 44. It would be a very peculiar line for him to take with an underfull.. checking flop and only starting to play aggressively when several other possible bigger boats are out there.

From your perspective, shoving this river with anything other than AA or aces full is suicidal and even some of the aces fulls can reasonably be debated (you said earlier in the thread that you would probably just call A4 here.)

[Savy]

You really find that funny?

No wonder you play games called "World War Werewolf". What a nerd.

Yeah, really funny. I can explain why if you like. It should be pretty obvious though.