Not So Vanilla Werewolf Diffusion

[OngBonga]

More on n1 angel outing - wolves know angel/seer ratio. If the angel outs, then that's one less person in the potential seer pool. If there's only 4 angels, then n1 angel outing means wolves have a 6/9, or 66% chance of hitting a seer. Seems to me that an angel outing is what the wolves would want. There might not be a n1 doc for a n1 angel to protect, so the benefit to town is not guaranteed.

I think people should claim only when they need to, and even then try to keep as much info from the wolves as possible.

Also, I would advise cops to hold onto any info they get overnight until later in the day, so they can observe interactions with private knowledge.

[OngBonga]

wuf - are we allowed to vote to no-lynch?

Only reason I ask is because angel saves might result in a 3 vs 1 final day, in which case a no-lynch is the right move for town.

[gabe]

I like ong's posts and they make him seem quite villagery

I like the points gator is trying to make but the way he raises them is potentially wolfy (where I think ong's post aren't)

I'm still sticking with rong. no value, no insight... the only strategic post he made was about what is beneficial to the wolves. that combined with his wolfy perspective i first mentioned means hea the leadin candidate. I'm almost completely sold on him being a wolf

[OngBonga]

I have no reason to suspect rong at this point. He's both a dangerous wolf and an outstanding villager, so lynching him today has its pros and cons. I think the cons outweigh the pros tbh. If he's a villager his recent performances make him a top nom candidate, so I prefer to keep dan around for the foreseeable future and reasses on d3 or so.

[OngBonga]

As for gator, he's near impossible to read, which is why he'll get seered.

[GatorJH]

I like the points gator is trying to make but the way he raises them is potentially wolfy (where I think ong's post aren't)

And why is that? I have never played a diffusion game so I am just trying to figure this stuff out, which means trying to work through what makes sense and what doesn't.

[wufwugy]

wuf - are we allowed to vote to no-lynch?

Only reason I ask is because angel saves might result in a 3 vs 1 final day, in which case a no-lynch is the right move for town.

We've never allowed no-lynches before, so I don't intend to start now

[OngBonga]

Ok having read through dan's posts again I can see where gabe is coming from.

[gabe]

And why is that? I have never played a diffusion game so I am just trying to figure this stuff out, which means trying to work through what makes sense and what doesn't.

ong was more assertive, you were posing questions. I think his is more likely a village perspective than yours, that's all

[gabe]

I think not killing the best wolf candidate to keep him around isn't a good idea in this short handed game with all veterans

[OngBonga]

I'm not sure I agree he's best wolf candidate, I still prefer to lynch daven. Leaving someone like dan for a couple of days gives seers time to seer him, wolves time to nom him, and him time to nail wolves. He's a top target for everyone. I feel like lynching him without something more solid than sporadic d1 posting would be a mistake, from an ev perspective. I might change my tune after he's posted more today, but while I agree his posts can be read as shady, it's not compelling enough for my vote just yet.

[JKDS]

Ong, that reasoning applies to almost everyone in this game. If you need him to talk more, you lynch him. Its not like we have a lack of time atm.

[gabe]

1 villager point to jkds

[OngBonga]

Ong, that reasoning applies to almost everyone in this game. If you need him to talk more, you lynch him. Its not like we have a lack of time atm.

Not really. There's not many people here who are as good as dan. There's you, gabe and gator. Jack when he's on form. Dan's strength as villager earns him the right to survive d1 by default imo, unless the case on him is particularly compelling, more so than would be necessary to lynch someone I consider weaker.

But thanks for joining gabe in my villager list. I like the idea of a JKDS gabe ong townbloc to crush the wolves.

[gabe]

i think i just got burned... nh sir!

I was actually thinking of crazy drew... I thought I've read you pretty well the past couple games (which isn't a bad thing if you are village and trying to be read as village). because of this I'm not trying to see you die at this point

[jyms]

Last game gabe made a post that pointed out savy, luco and hoopy on day one. We freaked in the wolf thread, I'm going with gabes gut

Lynch rong

[rong]

rescind wuf
i think this is unlikely. I could get on a lynch rong based entirely on this post = the only wolf-looking action this deep into the thread

Have you even read the link provided in the op? One of the first things it states is that multiple actions on the same night are likely.

[JKDS]

Jyms, are you investing any time into the game right now?

[rong]

Lol jyms. Anyone but but you, right. Have you ever presented a case for anyone when you weren't threatened first.

[rong]

It's a game designed for fake outs. So look for two players going at it today to justify their n1 look up. Just a thought.

Would include ong v Daven, Gabe v me.

I mean this is what I'd do if I was a wolf. I'd be planning my fake out now. And Gabe, yes I'm talking about what I'd do as a wolf. But in a new format this is important.

[Keith]

didn't click the link. looks like i should have.

I fiund Daven's speculation about night actions wierd. he claims that he should have clicked the link, but i put the gist of it into my post #18 along with my mini rant about the rules being followed should be in the first post. For someone going through and commenting on virtuallly every post Daven is going to have read #18. so why start ignoring it.

lynch Daven.

[Hoopy]

Given that there is a strong possibility of multiple seers acting on the same night, I would think anything that increases the chance of several of them looking up the same person, such as a strong well respected player suggesting a look up, would be beneficial for the wolves.

I don't think that there's multiple seers per night looking at the link that wuf posted.

[rong]

From that link:
It's possible for there to be multiple players with the same power and night.

[OngBonga]

It's a game designed for fake outs. So look for two players going at it today to justify their n1 look up. Just a thought.

Would include ong v Daven, Gabe v me.

I mean this is what I'd do if I was a wolf. I'd be planning my fake out now. And Gabe, yes I'm talking about what I'd do as a wolf. But in a new format this is important.

Why would you even say this so early? There's two potential pairings based on what is actually a viable strategy, but I'm not a wolf and I don't expect you to be one with gabe after saying what you just did. So it seems to me that this post of yours is premeature ejaculation. Nice thought, wish you'd kept it to yourself for longer though.

[Hoopy]

From that link:
It's possible for there to be multiple players with the same power and night.

Ah ok, that changes a few things. It actually makes sense because if we just had 1 seer/angel per night then a mass claim could break the game.

Just waiting on luco and BID to post now.

[Hoopy]

Though it's probably best for the village that we lynch BID today it's also kind of mean to do it 2 games in a row. I'm not going to lynch drew unless he does something terrible.

Last game gabe made a post that pointed out savy, luco and hoopy on day one. We freaked in the wolf thread, I'm going with gabes gut

Lynch rong

I always think you're wolfy jyms.

lynch jyms

[GatorJH]

Luco and BID are MIA, Bigred has gone back to minimal posting and jyms is barely putting effort into the game.

JKDS, Daven and Ong seem like villagers at this point.

Everyone else is undetermined.

Wuf, what is your modkill policy this game?

[jyms]

Jyms, are you investing any time into the game right now?

Nope. Just reading and watching. I have no insight at this time

[bigred]

Luco and BID are MIA, Bigred has gone back to minimal posting and jyms is barely putting effort into the game.

JKDS, Daven and Ong seem like villagers at this point.

Everyone else is undetermined.

Wuf, what is your modkill policy this game?

It was the weekend, bro. What's your rush?

[JKDS]

Nope. Just reading and watching. I have no insight at this time

Then why are you following gabe...

This is going to be one of those games. Im not hand holding again, that ship sailed. But cmoooooooooooooooooooooon, we arent learning anything from anybody by just tossing votes to potential unknowns. No matter if gabe is right or wrong, I learn jack about you because you didnt vote rong for a real reason.

[bigred]

Daven still most suspicious. Super light hearted until some pressure and now the angry responses.

I'd be down for a luco lynch as well since he's been afkish.

[JKDS]

@Hoopy: Im not lynching BID day 1 for policy reasons. If we're gonna lynch an inactive then it should be luco.

[JKDS]

Daven still most suspicious. Super light hearted until some pressure and now the angry responses.

I'd be down for a luco lynch as well since he's been afkish.

Daven gives me the jeebies, but I honestly dont feel like lynching him after being so wrong last game.

[bigred]

Nope. Just reading and watching. I have no insight at this time

This is jyms learning a lesson from the previous game. Can't tell whether it's villager jyms or wolf jyms.

[GatorJH]

It was the weekend, bro. What's your rush?

Then a half hour later.

I'd be down for a luco lynch as well since he's been afkish.

Which one is it?

[bigred]

Both. Pedantic much?

[bigred]

I'd also be willing to lynch imsavy (for light hearted lynch wuf post) or Keith (weak jump onto Daven bandwagon). I realize they're not strong reads but it's day 1.

[wufwugy]

Wuf, what is your modkill policy this game?

There will be no modkills unless absolutely necessary (unlikely). They would then be done in a way that either hurts no team or hurts the modkilled player's team

[GatorJH]

There will be no modkills unless absolutely necessary (unlikely). They would then be done in a way that either hurts no team or hurts the modkilled player's team

OK, that takes BID and Luco off of my lynch list for today.

[GatorJH]

I'd also be willing to lynch imsavy (for light hearted lynch wuf post) or Keith (weak jump onto Daven bandwagon). I realize they're not strong reads but it's day 1.

I actually thought Keith's point was pretty valid. Daven had just replied to a ton of posts that makes it look like he is reading the thread, but when JV responds to one of his about game mechanics he says he didn't click the link. If he was truly reading the thread he would have had that info from Keith's post.

[GatorJH]

I can get on a lynch bigred wagon. His last post seems like he is just throwing out random accusations without thinking them through. I already explained his fault with Keith and then he throws Savy into the mix because he bolded wuf when the real issue with savy is he has been afk since then.

He also throws out a "lynch gator to look like normal bigred" when he hasn't done that for the past 3-4 games.

[OngBonga]

His last post seems like he is just throwing out random accusations without thinking them through.

And this surprises you why exactly?

[wufwugy]

savy isnt playing

it's a 13p game. i didnt include him because he claimed he only wanted vanilla, and this isnt vanilla

sorry savy. there will be a next time

[Luco]

In.

[wufwugy]

okay i decided to make savy the night 1 vig. he can shoot anybody he wants, but there is somewhere between a 100% chance and a 10x10% chance that the bullet bounces off his target and blasts through the back of his own skull

[Hoopy]

@Hoopy: Im not lynching BID day 1 for policy reasons. If we're gonna lynch an inactive then it should be luco.

Agreed, though with the modkill clarification from wuf I don't want to lynch either of them today.

The argument between daven and Ong looks like 2 villagers over analyzing things, nothing much to go on yet.

Sticking with jyms for now.

[daven]

I fiund Daven's speculation about night actions wierd. he claims that he should have clicked the link, but i put the gist of it into my post #18 along with my mini rant about the rules being followed should be in the first post. For someone going through and commenting on virtuallly every post Daven is going to have read #18. so why start ignoring it.

lynch Daven.

i skimmed your post and thought 'nothing interesting here'. I didn't pick up on your comment that the night actions were randomised in such a way that there could be multiple or zero of a particular special action on any given night. jfc - there is no way i would have started posting in the thread without reading the info in that link if i was a wolf...

[daven]

Have you even read the link provided in the op? One of the first things it states is that multiple actions on the same night are likely.

nah, i hadn't read the info in that link at that point. I pointed that out already in subsequent posts.

[daven]

It's a game designed for fake outs. So look for two players going at it today to justify their n1 look up. Just a thought.

Would include ong v Daven, Gabe v me.

I mean this is what I'd do if I was a wolf. I'd be planning my fake out now. And Gabe, yes I'm talking about what I'd do as a wolf. But in a new format this is important.

^ interesting. But it makes me think you are a wolf. I think you are a better player than this 'if-i-was-wolf' plan suggests.

Fake-outing as a seer would mean that next day you would have to post an honest read next day unless you were comfortable with someone knowing you were lying, or i guess you could claim to have seered the nom-choice.
Fake outing as angel is so much simpler, and then you can go with 'yeah, i protected myself' and that's impossible to disprove.
I'm still happy to lynch either of rong or ong.

[daven]

It tells the wolves who not to nom.

given that we don't know if there is a night 1 seer this isn't such a problem..

[daven]

More on n1 angel outing - wolves know angel/seer ratio. If the angel outs, then that's one less person in the potential seer pool. If there's only 4 angels, then n1 angel outing means wolves have a 6/9, or 66% chance of hitting a seer. Seems to me that an angel outing is what the wolves would want. There might not be a n1 doc for a n1 angel to protect, so the benefit to town is not guaranteed.

I think people should claim only when they need to, and even then try to keep as much info from the wolves as possible.

Also, I would advise cops to hold onto any info they get overnight until later in the day, so they can observe interactions with private knowledge.

i'll need to think more on the night 1 angel outing. Interesting points you raise here. I still think there are benefits to be had from it though. I mean, if someone is say night 4 seer then they are not that likely to make it to endgame anyway, so it's not such a problem if they get nommed right? or maybe? hmm, like i said, gotta think more about this

[gabe]

rong jyms bigred could all get the rope. I think I'd prefer bigred over jyms. jyms seems to balance his play well... like he acts in a similar way whether he's good guy or bad... but the problem is that "balanced" appearance is a suspicious player, not an innocent one

I've been scheming on when I can out and how other roles outing might factor in. I like this diffusion game because its different but plenty simple

[OngBonga]

given that we don't know if there is a night 1 seer this isn't such a problem..

Yes it's a problem. If an angel outs, then it increases the chances of wolves hitting a seer at night. Doesn't matter if it's a n1 seer or whatever, ideally the village want the wolves to kill angels, not seers.

And what's the point of a n1 angel outing if it's not so a n1 seer can then also out and get protected?

[OngBonga]

obv I missed you last post before my one above, so don't feel obliged to respond again daven.

[daven]

Yes it's a problem. If an angel outs, then it increases the chances of wolves hitting a seer at night. Doesn't matter if it's a n1 seer or whatever, ideally the village want the wolves to kill angels, not seers.

And what's the point of a n1 angel outing if it's not so a n1 seer can then also out and get protected?

night one seer can't out without knowing there is a night one angel
that's why i suggested night one angel outs first
make sense?
then again, there's a pretty low chance that the wolf will actually hit the night one seer cos lol-probability, so maybe this plan becomes more useful on later days.

[OngBonga]

Another thing - angels who have burned their power should not out themselves, it will hurt town badly because it tells the wolves not to nom you, and will get you serious heat because it could be a wolf bullshitting to not look suspicious that he's not getting nommed. So spent angels should play a strong villager game in an effort to draw the wolf nom.

[Luco]

Gonna give bigred and gator a villager lean for not realising savy isn't playing, I think a wolf would be more aware of the player list.

Daven is villager and ong is a wolf, I think I can prove both

[OngBonga]

that's why i suggested night one angel outs first

It definitely helps the wolves, and the benefit to town is minimal and not guaranteed. So no, n1 angel should definitely not out imo. No-one should out unless they have info, or they are likely to be lynched. That's the only reason people should out imo. And if someone is forced to claim due to lynch threat, either lie about what night your action is, or better still say nothing about it.

[OngBonga]

Gonna give bigred and gator a villager lean for not realising savy isn't playing, I think a wolf would be more aware of the player list.

Daven is villager and ong is a wolf, I think I can prove both

lol good luck with that

[Luco]

So JV posts this:

So everyone gets a "you can do X on night Y", including the wolves right? As in, on some nights we won't have a vig/seer/angel because it's the wolves fake turn? If not, we can all out and look for duplicates. But I didn't pay much attention in the sign-up thread..

Thinking about his role pm, and ong responds with this:

lynch jack

Soulread #1. So much for me playing a different game.

compare this to Hoopy’s response:

Wolves don't have any powers the way I read it. Essentially the village has potential lookups and protects up to night 5.

and daven’s:

the first bit is how it read to me, not the second part though.

and you’ll see what I’m driving at. Ong didn't get this because he never saw the villager pm

lynch ong

[OngBonga]

Gonna give bigred and gator a villager lean for not realising savy isn't playing, I think a wolf would be more aware of the player list.

Also, seeing as imsavy posted, it's not unreasonable for even a wolf to think he might be playing.

[OngBonga]

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say luco is a villager. That doesn't come across as wolfy, I think he actually thinks he has something.

luco, I've played this format before, so I don't need to speculate about what nights blah blah.

[OngBonga]

I think you might be right about daven being a villager though luco.

rescind

[bigred]

I can get on a lynch bigred wagon. His last post seems like he is just throwing out random accusations without thinking them through. I already explained his fault with Keith and then he throws Savy into the mix because he bolded wuf when the real issue with savy is he has been afk since then.

He also throws out a "lynch gator to look like normal bigred" when he hasn't done that for the past 3-4 games.

This is almost as weak as my arguments...you should be ashamed

[OngBonga]

lol I feel like we've already got this narrowed down...

Villagers - me, luco, gabe, jkds, hoopy, daven

Unknown - rong, jv, gator, jyms, bid, bigred, keith

Of the unknowns, I'd lean villager with keith and gator, so that leaves...

drew, rong, jack, jyms and bigred

I think we should lynch from this group. dan and jack are too much of a loss to us if we're wrong, and drew went first last time, so I'm thinking jyms or bigred.

[jackvance]

rescind daven

From the continuation of his posts he looks quite villagery. Bigred's posts echoed some of my own thinking which is often points at a a villager. This also puts some suspicion on Gator for me although not much. Luco's reasoning for why ong looks wolfy had also crossed my mind, so I'm a go with that.

lynch ong

[OngBonga]

^ wolf

lynch jack

[jackvance]

I think we got one.

[OngBonga]

jack bigred jyms

[bigred]

Is ong usually this erratic? Yes? Probably?

[jackvance]

The more I think about it the more I like it. My first post is pretty normal thinking after just read the role PM isn't it? The fact that ong thought this was wolfy means he didn't think like this, probably because he never got a villager PM. Especially with the comparison Luco makes. It would be hilarious to nail a wolf on one of his first posts like this. But there is more, it would also provide hoopy, daven, keith and luco with some villager cred if ong flips wolf. Solid lynch right there.

[jackvance]

Is ong usually this erratic? Yes? Probably?

When he was a wolf sure.

[GatorJH]

Villagers - me, luco, gabe, jkds, hoopy, daven

I would love to hear why you have gabe and luco on your villager list. Gabe doesn't seem like Gabe to me this game. He jumped on Rong VERY early and other than his last post hasn't really provided much info imo.

And Luco just has the argument against you. If you are a villager why does that one act make him a villager?

[bigred]

Why does Ong think daven is a villager? Didn't he bold him?

[bigred]

Yeah daven is totally a wolf, this is what he does when he's a wolf, reads the whole thread and replies individually to each one so it boosts his post count and looks like he's hunting. Standard davenwolf.

lynch daven

Yup. rescind daven, lynch ong