Not So Vanilla Werewolf Diffusion

[Hoopy]

Yup. I'm getting framed. I'm the only player who voted for JV to be lynched.

Although, if I'm way off base (and I was with jv), it would be in the best interest for the wolves to keep me around. Which is why I think I'm right about gabe/bigred.

Drew has crazy logic, but it's villager crazy. He's viewing the game from a singular viewpoint which indicates a villager.

[Hoopy]

lynch jyms

[gabe]

neither bandwagon was pushed too hard.. it could have easily been one of those spots where the wolves didn't care who got lynched

just sayin

[gabe]

jyums has the lowest post count by far. would an experienced player really do this as a wolf after it seems like every game we try to take out that person ? hmmm

[rong]

Sooooo we just let ong survive?

Given how I explained this would play out if ong is a wolf, he found the one way of avoiding it.

[Keith]

Ugggghhhh now what do we do about Ong? Both people he argued heavily with (JV & daven) are dead villagers, those arguments look like villager on villager so this kind gives him some villager points. But now he's saying he's actually the N1 angel, wtf?

Why the surprise? ONG and JKDS have far more experience of these types of games than we do. they say its a fake claimers wet dream. I posted yesterday when people were trying to get Ong lynched that Ong had put himself into play and could be an n1 angel making a fake claim and let the wolves have to make a choice if they believe him or not rather than us lynching him. So why the surprise?

The simplest explanation is that Ong is just a villager who tried to make a play but it backfired. Occam's razor and all that.

That is far too simplistic. Ongie could still be a wolf taking the route out of the situation in which he now "appears" a confirmed villager that the wolves will have to eat. They are still much better served eating the unknowns and try and hit the remaining seers. If ong is a wolf they now also have a fake out in confirming that they looked up Ong and he is a villager.

They obviously killed jack because they thought I was going to clear him. So at least they believed me. Probably should've faked a guilty on bigred to see what happens but I think enough fucking about, we got two seers dead and I'm gonna take the fall.

ftr I have a much more awesome wolf strategy for this than the one I would be playing if I'm a wolf. If I were a wolf you'd all think I was a cleared villager by now. So the fact I'm looking fucked should suggest strongly that I'm a villager who got me a dose of SDM syndrome.

so if u thought all that stuff you could have protected JV

I could've if I actually thought he was a villager. I might even had done so if I considered they'd nom him. Whatever, my FPS fucked up and I'm not going to fight lynch because I haven't a leg to stand on. My only defence is this is way too retarded for me to do as a wolf.

No way is it retarded for a wolf to play it this way. It does nothing to confirm that you are a villager. Interesting that you are playing the "best to kill me" card and not going to fight a lynch whilst doing your best to argue that it shows that you are a confirmed villager.You could have been a wolf about to be lynched , fake outed to survive the lynch and now trying to explain why you survied the night. If you are a wolf you would obviously survive the night and need an explanation why. why not another fake claim.
In fact , why would the wolves kill JV rather than you if you are not a wolf. it was made clear yesterday that you would die if you survive the night and your lookup would gaurantee a villager. your death as a seer would virtually ensure a JV lynch and possibly also a bigred lynch since you were tossing up between them making you the better kill.

Sooooo we just let ong survive?

Given how I explained this would play out if ong is a wolf, he found the one way of avoiding it.

I still believe we should lynch Ong for a couple of reasons

- he's already lied about his role , no reason that he is telling the truth now.
- if he is lynched and comes back a villager it strongly suggests that bigred is a villager as wolf bigred could not take the risk that seer Ong looked bigred up instead of JV so wolves would have targetted Ong rather than JV
- if he is lynched and comes back a wolf bigred can no longer be considered a lock villager
-lynching Ong protects all of our potential n2 actions from having to out themselves to defend against a wagon

lynch ONG

[JKDS]

Ugggghhhh now what do we do about Ung? Both people he argued heavily with (JV & duvun) are dead villagers, those arguments look like villager on villager so this kind gives him some villager points. But now he's saying he's actually the N1 angel, wtf?

The simplest explanation is that Ung is just a villager who tried to make a play but it backfired. Occam's razor and all that.

How do you figure? Hes either a villager who tried to make a play or a wolf who is making a play. I dont see how one is so much simpler than the other. The first post reads to me as fake frustration as well.

@Gubu: Im very cautious about following standard village meta like "zomg look at his post count". It always seems like the default place for a wolf to start when he wants to lynch a villager to me, since it doesnt require any thought or defense.

@Rung: I believe in ungbungu. I dont think this should be about what the best strategy is for one someone is forced to claim anymore. Ung has posted a lot, and I think we have enough from his interactions and tone to make a call on his status without just default lynching him. Like, I dont think his angel claim has anything to do with him not getting rope. What do you really think of him?

[JKDS]

Of course keith would ninja me

[JKDS]

I dont have time to discuss it atm, but Keith your bullet points dont make a good case agaisnt ong imo. I think the info we get about bigred from an ong lynch is quite minimal, and while we would be risking outing another special...we also lose the opportunity to nail a wolf. In addition, I can see ong lying about his role as both a vllager and a wolf, especially since he made that post about how he thinks thats the best strategy. I need more.

[Hoopy]

How do you figure? Hes either a villager who tried to make a play or a wolf who is making a play. I dont see how one is so much simpler than the other. The first post reads to me as fake frustration as well.

Idk it just seems like the wolf version would take more planning, deliberately playing to get votes so he could fake out. You can read into my posts however you want.

[Hoopy]

How do you figure? Hes either a villager who tried to make a play or a wolf who is making a play. I dont see how one is so much simpler than the other. The first post reads to me as fake frustration as well.

Idk the wolf version seems like it would take more planning, deliberately posting in a certain way so he could fake out later.

You can read into my posts however you want.

[Hoopy]

Alright I think the issue of whether Ong is a wolf won't go away, it'll distract the village for all of today and maybe more.

Lets just get rid of him now.

lynch Ong

[OngBonga]

lynch hoopy

[jyms]

Ong is a wolf who is drawing heat to allow the other wolves to gain villager cred by bolding and trying to lynch him. He's trying a level two by having JV killed at night when it's obvious that it was a set up. Why would Ong and the wolves kill JV when they butted heads.

Ong and gator are both wolves,

Lynch Ong

[OngBonga]

Anyone who actually thinks I'm going to flip wolf is either a liar or stupid. I'll tell you how a wolf wins this format afterwards, I'm not going to save myself by giving the wolves ideas. But if I'm a wolf, no way do I have three votes today. Just saying.

[OngBonga]

Ong is a wolf who is drawing heat to allow the other wolves to gain villager cred by bolding and trying to lynch him. He's trying a level two by having JV killed at night when it's obvious that it was a set up. Why would Ong and the wolves kill JV when they butted heads.

Ong and gator are both wolves,

Lynch Ong

I mean this is actually quite funny. Hey jyms, what are you doing here? Claiming wolf?

Hey guys, arrooooo and shit, I'm a wolf.... and so is jyms who is just trying to grab villager cred by jumping on me


mwaaaahahahaha

I retract the arrrooo by the way, I'm just a stupid villager.

[OngBonga]

No way is it retarded for a wolf to play it this way.

Of course it is. Note how many votes I have today. Why would I say in the sign up thread I'm too easy to read a swolf and I need to change my game, and then spend day one shouting that jack and bigred are wolves while fakeclaiming a n1 action and then say next day that actually I'm a villager getting creative? This is a retarded line for a wolf to take, at least it certainly seems so from where I'm sitting. Why in fuck's name would I make myself such an easy lynch on d2?

[OngBonga]

And the idea that me coming back villager clears bigred is flawed, so flawed that I think there's a good chance that keith is wolf with bigred.

rescind hoopy

By killing jack, they showed that they expected me to clear him today. So they didn't expect me to look up bigred. So bigred can easily be a wolf still.

Bigred is still my number one wolf suspect, he still jumped on my wagon yesterday because I changed my read on daven. But hey anyone notice that bigred himself changed his read on daven? He must have done, because when he was voting for me, he must have been assuming daven was a villager, seeing as I jumped on him when along with bigred after daven's flurry of posts.

Bigred's vote on me was a really bad excuse to pile on a villager wagon. If I need to die to show that I'm a villager and that's what bigred did, so be it. But bigred is still dodgy as fuck.

Keith suggesting bigred is cleared if I flip villager is sketch as fuck, because keith then votes for a vulnerable villager. When I flip, ooh look bigred is clear.

Truth is I'm feeling pretty dejected, I don't have any confidence whatsoever in my reads any more. But I'm not going to go down without telling people how my reads have changed as a result of what's happening today.

I now think bigred and keith are wolves.

[OngBonga]

As for hoopy, at first I thought his vote for me was lazy and avoiding committment, but truth be told, that's exactly how I'd be feeling about me if I were one of you guys. I'd just want me gone quickly so the village is rid of the hinderance.

But make sure if you lynch me that you recognise it means we're 4 villagers down after the night kill, and plan accordingly. Don't be wasting time saying "if ong flips wolf", worry about that if it actually happens. Assume I flip villager because that's a better use of your time and effort.

[BankItDrew]

This may be dodgy as fuck but I don't care:

I believe ong and I don't think thoughts of lynching him will be an issue if we don't lynch him.

He seems like a straight up honest dude whom I would gladly ask to babysit for me if I had kids.

[GatorJH]

This may be dodgy as fuck but I don't care:

I believe ong and I don't think thoughts of lynching him will be an issue if we don't lynch him.

He seems like a straight up honest dude whom I would gladly ask to babysit for me if I had kids.

I was going to start putting together a mongo post that would end up saying the same as this (minus the babysitting part, ldfo) with the following caveat.

I think we should be focused on finding the first wolf because I truly believe that putting the pieces of the puzzle together is virtually impossible until then. Of course people can start having thoughts about relationships between players, and every now and then someone may put it all together pretty early, but there are others at the same time who have it completely wrong. As for today I personally think there is enough of a possibility that Ong is a villager that we can leave him alone for now and focus on better targets such as bigred, jyms and IMHO Gabe (no, Gabe this isn't a revenge attack because you voted for me).

[BankItDrew]

All aboard the gabe train

[Keith]

just look through all the posts. I am consistent with the plan and sticking to it. While it was saving his skin yesterday he was happy for a short time and then tried to get out of it. His action is done. his role now gives information on bigred and me.

i love a lynch ong tomorrow. he gets to look up one of his suspects, tells us tomorrow , and then we kill him to see if we can trust him and don't risk any of our n2+ actions.

this

Lynch me first, I don't care, I'll die knowing I took a wolf down. Jack flipping wolf wouldn't clear me anyway so I'd probably still need to go, so yeah just lynch me tomorrow.

You'll need to lynch me first anyway if I'm not trusted, because if I'm a fucked wolf, there's the risk I try to take a strong villager down in jack. So tomorrow, I post my lookup and then I get lynched. Easy.

Slight change of tac here ong.

"What's actually gonna happen tomorrow is I'm gonna give a guilty report on jack and then the village are gonna have to decide which one of us to lynch first."

SO ong was quite happy here to give a fake role report on someone who could be a village seer. Is that really acting in the villages best interest.

I don't see the point that Daven is trying to make here. I don't see how angel and/or seer outing benefits the village at all so why even suggestit. I can see how it could benefit wolves to fake claim angel and/or seer then reveal another wolfor even a villager to gain credibility and explain why they weren't targetted by the wolves.Could the argument that daven was having with Ong have been staged to set up these sort of claims.
I particularly don't like the fact that ong is now suggesting that we have to decide whether or not to lynch him before his lookup. I think its irrelevent as he agreed with my suggestion that ONG should definitely be tomorrows lynch to see if we could trust his lookup.
Also Ong was stating that people forced to out shouldn't reveal when they should act then puts himself as the n1 seer.I'm staying on Daven as he does not strike me as a villager the way he is acting and his suggestions seem to benefit the wolves more than the village.

I'm just saying how it is if I get a wolf report.

what happened to lynching you to prove that we could trust your report.

Ong, you sure are shifty.

From my pov, that's the second best option, assuming I have a wolf report. But I'm expecting to go tomorrow whatever my report.

Rong of course I'm shifty. Everyone's on my case because you all seem to think that n1 seer is a viable wolf fakeclaim. Maybe I wasn't expecting that. It's pretty obvious that I'm not gonna survive to day 6. So to be quite frank I don't care if I'm shifty.

just remember that ongie said that knowing that he would have a fake report .

Well my death tomorrow is inevitable. Even if I bink a wolf, you'll still want me dead. I'll obviously be saying "It's better to lynch the wolf guys" and you'll all be levelling yourself into thinking that in a game of multiple seers I'd be stupid enough ot fakeclaim n1 seer and then get a wolf buddy lynched and somehow dodge seers and lynch all game and win because I'm so fucking good.

But here you are saying I should die today, so the village gets nothing from this situation.

Wow so you either actually think this is a good move, and thus are actually stupid, or you're a wolf.

You would have a point about it taking two days to lynch a wolf etc if we weren't discussing this on day one. Lynching a wolf on day 2 instead of day 1 is not a problem for the village, especially when the person you are considering lynching has claimed n1 seer and as such becomes spent after the first night and can be safely lynched with no loss to village other than the mislynch itself.

It's astonishing that you are failing to understand this dan. If you're a villager, you're stupid. It's pretty stupid as a wolf too. You#re stupider than I realised. I'm sorry I called you smart in the past, I didn't mean to inflate your ego undeservedly.

dan your logic is terribad.
if ong is village then let the wolves use an eat up on him or let them have to toss a coin on whether he is a n1 angel protecting himself or that some other n1 angel protects him or that he is a n1 seer. As a village we lose nothing by letting him live and can gain by finding any information he brings should he survive the night and then lynch him tomorrow.

if ong is a wolf , he dies tomorrow anyway so what do we lose?

This.

I don't really want to die tomorrow but I at least recognise it won't be a horrible mistake for the village. I don't think keith believes me rong, yet he's taking the correct approach. Why aren't you?

Again rubbish, ong dies and we find out if he is village or not, we don't risk any potential seers or angels and then based on knowing ongs role then we can take a decision on whether to lynch whoever he looks up and what he claims they are.

Also , if ong survives the night and shows up wolf if he's lynched and i get eaten , look carefully at the people who have been pointing at me ....gabe luco and rong. I've already shown that i'm not going to let ong get away without being lynched tomorrow . is this thwarting the wolves plan and would try to get rid of me so that wolf ong could bring a wolf found report back tomorrow and try and survive a lynch by getting a fellow wolf killed and gain village cred as a result.

To be clear - I don't have a problem with people not believing me. It might surprise me that you think a wolf who felt like he was forced to fakeclaim on d1 would claim a n1 action, but it doesn't matter. What matters is that I live through the night. That's +ev for village, while killing me today is -ev. I never survive for long as a wolf in this spot..

Here's a thought. If I'm right about jack, then the wolves will be forced to nom me, right? If they nom me, what does that tell the village about jack? Yeah it looks bad for him. So if jack is wolf, the wolves won't want to nom me, nor will they want to leave me to look up a wolf.

If jack is a villager, then wolves might want to leave me alive, because while I clear jack, I'm tomorrow's lynch. They could nom me anyway so it looks bad for jack, but it seems better to just nom jack outright and leave me to be lynched.

We find out me a lot about me and jack overnight. Why would you want to jeopordise that?

What you're doing here dan is protecting jack and bigred from my night action. I might ask why you would do this?

Again rubbish, ong dies and we find out if he is village or not, we don't risk any potential seers or angels and then based on knowing ongs role then we can take a decision on whether to lynch whoever he looks up and what he claims they are.

Also , if ong survives the night and shows up wolf if he's lynched and i get eaten , look carefully at the people who have been pointing at me ....gabe luco and rong. I've already shown that i'm not going to let ong get away without being lynched tomorrow . is this thwarting the wolves plan and would try to get rid of me so that wolf ong could bring a wolf found report back tomorrow and try and survive a lynch by getting a fellow wolf killed and gain village cred as a result.

And the idea that me coming back villager clears bigred is flawed, so flawed that I think there's a good chance that keith is wolf with bigred.

rescind hoopy

By killing jack, they showed that they expected me to clear him today. So they didn't expect me to look up bigred. So bigred can easily be a wolf still.

Bigred is still my number one wolf suspect, he still jumped on my wagon yesterday because I changed my read on daven. But hey anyone notice that bigred himself changed his read on daven? He must have done, because when he was voting for me, he must have been assuming daven was a villager, seeing as I jumped on him when along with bigred after daven's flurry of posts.

Bigred's vote on me was a really bad excuse to pile on a villager wagon. If I need to die to show that I'm a villager and that's what bigred did, so be it. But bigred is still dodgy as fuck.

Keith suggesting bigred is cleared if I flip villager is sketch as fuck, because keith then votes for a vulnerable villager. When I flip, ooh look bigred is clear.

Truth is I'm feeling pretty dejected, I don't have any confidence whatsoever in my reads any more. But I'm not going to go down without telling people how my reads have changed as a result of what's happening today.

I now think bigred and keith are wolves.

Lol.....I'm sticking to the plan that you thought was great yesterday.....now you are trying to squirm out of it .

As for hoopy, at first I thought his vote for me was lazy and avoiding committment, but truth be told, that's exactly how I'd be feeling about me if I were one of you guys. I'd just want me gone quickly so the village is rid of the hinderance.

But make sure if you lynch me that you recognise it means we're 4 villagers down after the night kill, and plan accordingly. Don't be wasting time saying "if ong flips wolf", worry about that if it actually happens. Assume I flip villager because that's a better use of your time and effort.

And thats only going to happen if we lynch you.you've made your play ....now follow through to prove your claims.

[Keith]

This may be dodgy as fuck but I don't care:

I believe ong and I don't think thoughts of lynching him will be an issue if we don't lynch him.

He seems like a straight up honest dude whom I would gladly ask to babysit for me if I had kids.

thank god you ain't got kids . ong could be the love child of Myra Hindley and Ian Brady for all you know. google em for the US players.

[GatorJH]

Keith,
Btw, I am not saying that Ong may have to be lynched as this CERTAINLY could be him playing out a role to the death (as I did my last game), but I do think there is enough validity in what he is saying that for today we may be able to focus on better targets.

[gabe]

I'm really against an ong lynch. if you guys think he's a wolf then he would have to be very very clever. it makes so much more sense that he was a villager. i don't see myself voting for him at all with what's out there

I was going to start putting together a mongo post that would end up saying the same as this (minus the babysitting part, ldfo) with the following caveat.

I think we should be focused on finding the first wolf because I truly believe that putting the pieces of the puzzle together is virtually impossible until then. Of course people can start having thoughts about relationships between players, and every now and then someone may put it all together pretty early, but there are others at the same time who have it completely wrong. As for today I personally think there is enough of a possibility that Ong is a villager that we can leave him alone for now and focus on better targets such as bigred, jyms and IMHO Gabe (no, Gabe this isn't a revenge attack because you voted for me).

wow perfect timing for you to make a wolfy post. who actually writes that they "truly believe" something in werewolf unless they are lying or being misleading? to me that phrasing seems odd, and finding odd stuff is how you soulread

[gabe]

just think what ong put the village through,
then remember that ong gonna ong, and all of a sudden he doesn't seem like a wolf at all

[gabe]

also I find myself disagreeing with all of Keith's points. he is on my suspicious radar. I could get on a Keith wagon

[GatorJH]

Gabe, I truly believe means how I play the game. You may play it differently, but I don't try to solve the entire puzzle without having the first piece in place.

As for putting the first piece in place here is another reason why I don't think Ong is the best candidate for today. His story has been told. If we find a wolf and that player was on the Ong wagon very early then it makes it a bit more plausible for Ong to be a villager. Now the wolves have to start thinking about how long to let him live because with every wolf found it is that less feasible that he is a wolf. On the other hand, if we find a wolf and it incriminates him more then we feel better about the lynch.

[Hoopy]

rescind Ong

That was more out of frustration than anything.

[wufwugy]

i lold at gubu

[Keith]

also I find myself disagreeing with all of Keith's points. he is on my suspicious radar. I could get on a Keith wagon

talk about lazy. explain what you disagree with and why instead of trying to get someone else to start the wagon on me. I said yesterday that i would be pressing for ongs lynch today and i'm sticking to it.

I'm really against an ong lynch. if you guys think he's a wolf then he would have to be very very clever. it makes so much more sense that he was a villager. i don't see myself voting for him at all with what's out there"

look at it in context , he was heading for a lynch and pulled a fake claim, then claims that his fake claim was a fake claim , two wrongs don't make a right and two fakeclaims don't make him a villager. If he is a wolf he's not being very very clever , he's just doing what he had to do to stay alive.

Gator wants to lynch to lynch a better target mentioning Gabe, lets make it easy
run a me vs Gabe wagon . I'm not going to out as a seer to try and save myself . I am campaigning on an Ong is a wolf and should die platform. Gabe is saying that ong is a villager and should live. put him under pressure . If you lynch me you'll see i'm a villager if you lynch gabe then we'll see what his agenda is.


also hoopy is sounding totally fake this game from his "reveiwing all davens posts" comment to his outrage at ong claiming to have been the angel instead to his latest claiming that he voted ong out of frustration.

[OngBonga]

Sorry Keith, if you're expecting a long to and fro today you'll be disappointed. If you want to lynch me, go right ahead, you have your vote. I'm not going to vote myself, so I'm not entirely sure what you mean when you say "follow it through". Do you expect me to just roll over? Stop posting maybe?

I'd like to hear more about why you think my flipping villager will clear bigred. I ask because you seem to think that bigred = wolf mean that I get nommed. But seeing as they nommed jack, seems pretty obvious to me that they expected me to seer him, so that being the case, why would bigred feel threatened enough to nom me? I only get nommed if jack is a wolf, they kind of have no choice if they believe my claim. So the fact I'm still here proves nothing, whether it be about me or bigred.

[OngBonga]

SO ong was quite happy here to give a fake role report on someone who could be a village seer. Is that really acting in the villages best interest.

Wait, hang on. What keith is doing here is taking comments that I made while in the process of fakeclaiming, and taking them as honest comments. Why would you believe I was actually going to fake a guilty on jack? What you're referring to here is a comment I made that was intended to give the impression I was going to look jack up, hoping that he's a wolf who would feel forced to nom a n1 angel who was self protecting. So to argue that my comments show I am anti-village is a misrepresentation of the context, and is wolfy as fuck.

vote keith

[OngBonga]

If he is a wolf he's not being very very clever

Yet you still think I'm a wolf? I'll say it again, I have what I consider to be an outstanding wolf strategy for this game format. But keith is right, if I'm a wolf I'm not being clever. In fact I'd be very reckless.

So keith has spotted a villager tell, yet is still presenting me as a wolf. Either that or he thinks I am stupid.

[OngBonga]

Shit I got sucked in.

[gabe]

So to argue that my comments show I am anti-village is a misrepresentation of the context, and is wolfy as fuck.

i agree with you that his rationale is wrong, but you should also realize how often you appear the same way. if someone is posting stuff thats wrong, does that make them wolfy or just a wrong villager?

either way i think its v v unlikely ong is a wolf and keith has a decent shot at being bad guy

[gabe]

Gabe, I truly believe means how I play the game. You may play it differently, but I don't try to solve the entire puzzle without having the first piece in place.

i dont disagree with your logic, i was just calling you out for using the words "truly believe." if someone in this game believed something, then they would usually just say they believe it, not try to force the village to accept they are being truthful but saying 'truly believe'

[Keith]

I'm a n1 angel. I self protected and tried to get nommed. I failed. I thought jack was a wolf so I went with it.

Just lynch me.

They obviously killed jack because they thought I was going to clear him. So at least they believed me. Probably should've faked a guilty on bigred to see what happens but I think enough fucking about, we got two seers dead and I'm gonna take the fall.

ftr I have a much more awesome wolf strategy for this than the one I would be playing if I'm a wolf. If I were a wolf you'd all think I was a cleared villager by now. So the fact I'm looking fucked should suggest strongly that I'm a villager who got me a dose of SDM syndrome.

come on Ongie , this is from today where you say that you should have faked a guilty report on Bigred, there's no way that you can be sure that you are going to be online to be able to stop a wagon running through on bigred as a result. So it could have resulted in a dead seer for all you knew if you had done it.

so if u thought all that stuff you could have protected JV

I could've if I actually thought he was a villager. I might even had done so if I considered they'd nom him. Whatever, my FPS fucked up and I'm not going to fight lynch because I haven't a leg to stand on. My only defence is this is way too retarded for me to do as a wolf.

cant argue with that!

lynch gator

to me hes just going along with things and hes not connected to the ong whirlwind that blew through the last few pages

bold i think are villagers:

jkds
ong
rong
gator
jums
bid
bigred
luco
hoop
gabe
keith

All these fancy words about how you fucked up with your FPS and your wolf buddy helps to head off any criticism for not defending JV and then conveniently turns the spotlight onto Gator in the hopes that the village will concentrate on him rather than Ong.

Funny how i'm the wolf in your eyes having argued that you should be allowed to put your play into action last night whilst others still wanted to lynch you yesterday. You saying yesterday that you thought i didn't believe you. You agreeing yesterday that killing you to verify your role was the best play today . Now its come to that point and with you saying that its best to lynch you and you wouldn't fight it you are doing everything you can to stay alive.

Sorry Keith, if you're expecting a long to and fro today you'll be disappointed. If you want to lynch me, go right ahead, you have your vote. I'm not going to vote myself, so I'm not entirely sure what you mean when you say "follow it through". Do you expect me to just roll over? Stop posting maybe?

#456 shows how lazy you wolves are being. I already voted for you.so you admitted that you have now used your power up , have said that you should be lynched but now you want to lynch one of the other villagers who could be one of our potential seers or angels who can be of benefit to the village on future nights. How is that being a considerate villager?. You had your shot at glory , there is no way that the wolves are going to kill you if you are a villager because they want to take away those future powers and you aren't a confirmed villager by any measure so the wolves will let you live to endgame.

I'd like to hear more about why you think my flipping villager will clear bigred. I ask because you seem to think that bigred = wolf mean that I get nommed. But seeing as they nommed jack, seems pretty obvious to me that they expected me to seer him, so that being the case, why would bigred feel threatened enough to nom me? I only get nommed if jack is a wolf, they kind of have no choice if they believe my claim. So the fact I'm still here proves nothing, whether it be about me or bigred.

that is the biggest piece of misrepresentation ever. Jack was a villager and you were hinting that you were tossing up between JV and bigred. If bigred is a wolf he cannot take the risk that you look him up instead of JV as you could just come out today and say that you looked bigred up and he is a wolf. the only way bigred can be "safe" is if the wolves kill seer Ong and then heap the suspicion on JV killing Ong to protect himself. Wolves killing JV rather than the claimed seer makes it much less likely that bigred is a wolf than villager.With this games setup there could well be no n1 angel to protect you so a kill on you would be more likely to go through.

[OngBonga]

I had options for today, and believe me there's nothing wrong with making bullshit claims when villager. Had jack not died I probably fake a guilty on him to see if he rolls over. Would I let him get lynched? That depends on how he reacts. Whether I might or might not be online is hardly something I'm going to worry about, I'm online now while I watch TV with my Mother. And I didn't fake a guilty on bigred because jack died, flipped villager and forced me to reassess both my reads and willingness to take risks. It's all very well having fun, but I'm not pleased with myself when it results in jack seer getting killed.

Funny how i'm the wolf in your eyes having argued that you should be allowed to put your play into action last night whilst others still wanted to lynch you yesterday.

Yeah well the wolves won't have had a problem with my plan if they thought I was going to look up jack, would they?

Wolves would also want me dead, because let's face it, they can't be sure if I actually looked jack up and got a clear, so they don't know now if I'm seer or angel, which makes like a little bit tougher for them. Just a bit though.

#456 shows how lazy you wolves are being

Indeed, because I'm a really lazy wolf. Would you be so kind as to show me in the past where I'm a lazy wolf keith? Or as a villager for that matter?

Also, pretty sure I take more notice of who's voting for me when I'm wolf. Thanks for finding another villager tell and presenting it as a wolf tell.

Also keith, thanks for continuing to press the idea that me flipping villager clears bigred. I doubt very much you're going to convince many people, but what you're doing here is making it seem like you and bigred are villagers, and you're pressing for my lynch so I flip villager and clear him. Thus, we now get quite a lot of info about bigred if we lynch you.

Cheers keith.

[OngBonga]

I won't edit that post.

but what you're doing here is making it seem like you and bigred are villagers

Obviously that should say wolves. I'm distracted.

[Keith]

I had options for today, and believe me there's nothing wrong with making bullshit claims when villager. Had jack not died I probably fake a guilty on him to see if he rolls over. Would I let him get lynched? That depends on how he reacts. Whether I might or might not be online is hardly something I'm going to worry about, I'm online now while I watch TV with my Mother

when is a player of JV's calibre ever going to roll over? especially in this format which is set up for fake claims.You couldn't care if you get a seer lynched because you could be offline.Is that you acting in the villages interest?

. And I didn't fake a guilty on bigred because jack died, flipped villager and forced me to reassess both my reads and willingness to take risks. It's all very well having fun, but I'm not pleased with myself when it results in jack seer getting killed.

but you brought up that you should have fake outed on bigred AFTER jv had flipped villager and you had to reassess your reads. you can't have it both ways.

Yeah well the wolves won't have had a problem with my plan if they thought I was going to look up jack, would they?

Again why are you concentrating on wolves won't have problem if you looked up jack. they didn't know who you were going to look up since you were making it clear that you were flipping a coin to choose between jack and bigred. Your defence isn't consistent with what you were saying you were going to do and with what happened.

Wolves would also want me dead, because let's face it, they can't be sure if I actually looked jack up and got a clear, so they don't know now if I'm seer or angel, which makes like a little bit tougher for them. Just a bit though.

what the hell are you smoking? what difference does it make if you looked jack up and got a clear .none at all. have you forgotten that the villagers are single shot angels/seers.so it would not be tougher for the wolves if you were either of them. A villager would realise that and only a stoned wolf could come out with that sentence.

Indeed, because I'm a really lazy wolf. Would you be so kind as to show me in the past where I'm a lazy wolf keith? Or as a villager for that matter?

Also, pretty sure I take more notice of who's voting for me when I'm wolf. Thanks for finding another villager tell and presenting it as a wolf tell.

what???

Also keith, thanks for continuing to press the idea that me flipping villager clears bigred. I doubt very much you're going to convince many people, but what you're doing here is making it seem like you and bigred are villagers, and you're pressing for my lynch so I flip villager and clear him. Thus, we now get quite a lot of info about bigred if we lynch you.

Cheers keith.

ok explain why if you really were the seer and bigred is a wolf and you say that you are flipping a coin between bigred and JV that wolf bigred risks you looking him up and revealing his role?. ANd you are completely wrong with the second part of the paragraph. I think you are a wolf in which case bigred does not get cleared. if you are wolf bigred could be either wolf or villager , if you are villager (which i doubt) i think that bigred then is much less likely to be a wolf.

I won't edit that post.
but what you're doing here is making it seem like you and bigred are villagers
Obviously that should say wolves. I'm distracted.

why would i want to make it seem like i'm a wolf let alone bigred?????? You are all over the place and making mistakes because you are trying to appear a villager whilst really being a wolf.
Also emphasizes why edits shouldn't be allowed when they can be used to totally alter what people are saying.

[OngBonga]

You couldn't care if you get a seer lynched because you could be offline.

Twice you've made this point. It's a ridiculous point. I'm top of the post count posting at regular intervals throughout, standard ong. When is me being offline ever likely to be a concern? In all my games here I've afk'd without warning once.

You're reaching hard here keith. Real hard. What, you were hoping it would be easier to lynch me today than it's proving to be? I thought I'd be easier than this too keith. I'm pleasantly surprised.

[BankItDrew]

Epic soul-read:

Keith and ong are not both wolves.

<<<<<< MVP locked up ywvm

[JKDS]

lynch keith

Im happiest with this. I think the wolves thought we'd kill ong today, and I think theyre pissed we're letting him go. Keith Rong and Jyms dont seem to be doing anything but going after him, and are ignoring all the signs that show ong is likely just villager ong. Wolves have a lot of difficulty in making up reads, and I think keith exemplifies that the best.

Epic wufwugy soul read this game is JeRKy, for Jyms Rong and Keith.

[JKDS]

Day 1

I don't like gabes suggestion that angel protect ong tonight as there is a fair chance that ong is a wolf or he could be a n1 angel who will protect himself. let the wolves try and figure that out if hes a villager. ong has put himself into some sort of play let him go with it and we kill him tomorrow so we can analyse the evidence that it brings.
I'm sticking with my daven vote.

Predicting ong is a n1 angel here...

dan your logic is terribad.
if ong is village then let the wolves use an eat up on him or let them have to toss a coin on whether he is a n1 angel protecting himself or that some other n1 angel protects him or that he is a n1 seer. As a village we lose nothing by letting him live and can gain by finding any information he brings should he survive the night and then lynch him tomorrow.

and here...

I posted yesterday when people were trying to get Ong lynched that Ong had put himself into play and could be an n1 angel making a fake claim and let the wolves have to make a choice if they believe him or not rather than us lynching him.

and here on day 2, but ldo its completely unreasonable for him to ever be a villager and making this play.

No way. You're a wolf, chose not to kill him because you soul read his role, and now are hoping we do youre dirty work. None of the reasoning you have given for lynching ong holds any water, and if you were actually a villager I think you'd be more open to the idea of him being a villager since, you know, you predicted he was what he claims.

[JKDS]

@Gabe: Lets wait a day or two on gator. I'd like to give him a little more opportunity to use a role if he has one, just because historically hes been one of our best seers/angels. I also dont like that jyms wants him dead too, and if Im right about keith then going after gator today is a mistake.

[OngBonga]

I think the tide just turned.

[OngBonga]

JKDS what do you think of keith's comments that me flipping villager clears bigred? If keith is wolf, then he's either trying to clear bigred, or make it seem that way so he becomes an easy mislynch if keith dies. I'd be more inclined to think the former, seeing as bigred's reasoning for voting me yesterday seemed highly opportunistic.

I like your logic regarding jyms and rong, but I can't see all three wolves come gunning for me while everyone else dithers. I'd expect one to hold back.

I also must admit gabe backing off me so fast felt weird.

[JKDS]

It doesnt do shit to clear bigred, but bigred looks like a villager already anyway.

Also Im not so confident as to think i could soul read the wolf team right now. But this link is real, echoing is a common wolf tactic, and these guys have been sidelining for awhile too. I think there is a high chance at least 1 is a wolf, and I'd bet two were.

[jyms]

. Keith Rong and Jyms dont seem to be doing anything but going after him, and are ignoring all the signs that show ong is likely just villager ong.

Other than one post Back on early day one I don't think I've mentioned Ong. Not once. I certainly haven't bolded him. I do think he's capable of telling other wolves to throw him under the bus and get him lynched for cred. I don't have him on my radar. He won't make the endgame playing this way.

[bigred]

It doesnt do shit to clear bigred, but bigred looks like a villager already anyway.

Also Im not so confident as to think i could soul read the wolf team right now. But this link is real, echoing is a common wolf tactic, and these guys have been sidelining for awhile too. I think there is a high chance at least 1 is a wolf, and I'd bet two were.

Agreed. I don't think JV's death, an ong death, or a Keith death does anything to clear my alignment. It's silly to suggest that. Honestly, I was leaning towards JV being a wolf until he was killed due to his alignment with me. Wolves love to pick out villagers and go "yeah, bro..so villagery, such innocence. wow." Usually it's Wuf they align with.

I don't know what to do this day. There's a lot going on but I'm not seeing any clues towards a wolf. I think there's a wolf in JKDS, Gabe, and Keith but I don't know which way. Other than that I'd be willing to bet Hoopy or Jums is a wolf. My 100% Ong is a wolf feeling is quickly subsiding.

[bigred]

Looking back on the first day I think there's a high chance Luco is a wolf as well.

[bigred]

And if he is, I think we need to look at Jums

[Keith]

@jkds ......what happens when i am shown to be a villager? should the village then lynch both you and ong? I'm predicting the wolf team is Gabe ,JKDS and Ong. I said I won't be fake outing and i'm a n5 role so its unlikely i'll survive to the end of the game for my role to come into effect.Giving my role only helps the wolves and if my death protects any n2+ seer(s) so be it. If the village want to lynch me go ahead ......but then lynch ONG Gabe and JKDS because there is at least 1 wolf amongst that trio.

[JKDS]

Other than one post Back on early day one I don't think I've mentioned Ong. Not once. I certainly haven't bolded him. I do think he's capable of telling other wolves to throw him under the bus and get him lynched for cred. I don't have him on my radar. He won't make the endgame playing this way.

Ong is a wolf who is drawing heat to allow the other wolves to gain villager cred by bolding and trying to lynch him. He's trying a level two by having JV killed at night when it's obvious that it was a set up. Why would Ong and the wolves kill JV when they butted heads.

Ong and gator are both wolves,

Lynch Ong

Thats post 464, ie 28 hours ago.

rescind keith, lynch jyms

Im still pretty sure keith is a wolf, but jyms is the better choice of the two now. I dont see how a villager forgets his number 1 wolf suspect.

[JKDS]

Other than one post Back on early day one I don't think I've mentioned Ong. Not once. I certainly haven't bolded him. I do think he's capable of telling other wolves to throw him under the bus and get him lynched for cred. I don't have him on my radar. He won't make the endgame playing this way.

@jkds ......what happens when i am shown to be a villager? should the village then lynch both you and ong? I'm predicting the wolf team is Gabe ,JKDS and Ong. I said I won't be fake outing and i'm a n5 role so its unlikely i'll survive to the end of the game for my role to come into effect.Giving my role only helps the wolves and if my death protects any n2+ seer(s) so be it. If the village want to lynch me go ahead ......but then lynch ONG Gabe and JKDS because there is at least 1 wolf amongst that trio.

If you're shown to be a villager, we hunt some more. Setting up hard "if x --> lynch player A and if y --> lynch player B" is dumb. The game isnt static, we are always getting information. I dont know why you're suggesting we have this, or why the people lynching you must be wolves.

[jyms]

Oh shit I don't ever remember feeling that way, and I still believe in gator. I guess I made my standard game mistake. May as well blow me up now.

[Keith]

Day 1



Predicting ong is a n1 angel here...



and here...



and here on day 2, but ldo its completely unreasonable for him to ever be a villager and making this play.

No way. You're a wolf, chose not to kill him because you soul read his role, and now are hoping we do youre dirty work. None of the reasoning you have given for lynching ong holds any water, and if you were actually a villager I think you'd be more open to the idea of him being a villager since, you know, you predicted he was what he claims.

important difference is that i predicted he could be what he claims not that he was what he now claims. Also explain why only a villager would claim as he has done.....is it impossible for a wolf to have changed his claim to being a n1 angel as Ong has done and conveniently find a way out of explaining the night actions as rong pointed out.

Also find it really important that as soon as i say that i'm a late game role and to go ahead and lynch me , JKDS now wants to switch and target another player. Classic case of a wolf hunting the remaining seer(s). He's (they) guessing that i'm not a seer so the wolves need to switch their attention elsewhere and try and force someone else to out.

[Keith]

^ is so opportunistic rescind Ong Lynch JKDS

[OngBonga]

Well JKDS and luco are my two strongest villager reads so bigred and keith are not really helping their cause afaic.

[JKDS]

important difference is that i predicted he could be what he claims not that he was what he now claims. Also explain why only a villager would claim as he has done.....is it impossible for a wolf to have changed his claim to being a n1 angel as Ong has done and conveniently find a way out of explaining the night actions as rong pointed out.

Also find it really important that as soon as i say that i'm a late game role and to go ahead and lynch me , JKDS now wants to switch and target another player. Classic case of a wolf hunting the remaining seer(s). He's (they) guessing that i'm not a seer so the wolves need to switch their attention elsewhere and try and force someone else to out.

Thats not an important difference at all. You thought he could be an angel, he reveals he is, yet now you're only concerned with "following the plan". I dont see how you can find his current claim unbelievable when you thought it was a good possibility to begin with.

I dont argue that only a villager would do what ong did. I dont argue that ong specifically would only do this as a villager. But you are arguing that he must be a wolf because of the claim, even though you acknowledge his claim makes sense.

Also, I dont believe you when you say you have a late game role. Youre a wolf. WHy dont you have an opinion on jyms?

[rong]

I think Keith suggesting it as a,possibility is potentially the trigger for wolf ong to run with it.

I'm not certain ong is a wolf. I thought there was a good chance before he outed and nothing has happened to change my mind. Plus, id hé is a wolf and pulls this kinda shit off I'd need to track him down and kill him or we'll never hear the end of it and he lives in the north. There's a class divide you know!

[gabe]

to me it seems like theres no way ong is a wolf.

keith's analysis is wrong, but that doesnt make me think hes a wolf

i disagree with what rongs saying and he seems to be trying to keep village focus on ong. since i feel strongly ong is a villager, i dont understand why rong wouldnt see this, which makes me think hes wolfy (while if it was keith doing this, i think its more likely keith is making a mistake)

jyms is iffy. not much to go by here

i'm voting gator or rong

[Keith]

Thats not an important difference at all. You thought he could be an angel, he reveals he is, yet now you're only concerned with "following the plan". I dont see how you can find his current claim unbelievable when you thought it was a good possibility to begin with.

from ongs own mouth yesterday

dan your logic is terribad.
if ong is village then let the wolves use an eat up on him or let them have to toss a coin on whether he is a n1 angel protecting himself or that some other n1 angel protects him or that he is a n1 seer. As a village we lose nothing by letting him live and can gain by finding any information he brings should he survive the night and then lynch him tomorrow.

if ong is a wolf , he dies tomorrow anyway so what do we lose?

This.

I don't really want to die tomorrow but I at least recognise it won't be a horrible mistake for the village. I don't think keith believes me rong, yet he's taking the correct approach. Why aren't you?

I dont argue that only a villager would do what ong did. I dont argue that ong specifically would only do this as a villager. But you are arguing that he must be a wolf because of the claim, even though you acknowledge his claim makes sense.

rubbish..... you aren't even considering that Ong could be doing this as a wolf. And find a quote where i say that i acknowledge that his claim makes sense as a villager. You are trying to put words into my mouth like a wolf usually does. I am not arguing that he a wolf because of his claim. I am arguing that he is a wolf because when his bluff has been called and that we should lynch him as the plan said and as he said at the start of today and he claims that he wouldn't fight it, he has gone into full assualt mode and everyone trying to lynch him is now automatically a wolf.
He has claimed his role , now he can die and protect the remaining roles in the village as the plan originally said and we can work based on knowing his role.

Also, I dont believe you when you say you have a late game role. Youre a wolf. WHy dont you have an opinion on jyms?

of course you don't because i called you out on switching from me to jyms as soon as you found out that i was a late game role.Where was i ever asked for an opinion on jyms before this post. He's not in my list of top suspects i've already given them. However his comment above "may as well blow me up now" seems really sketchy for a villager to say.

[gabe]

i think we mostly have villager arguing so far

i think you people (bid, bigred, keith, jkds, ong) should consider gator and rong

[Keith]

to me it seems like theres no way ong is a wolf.

keith's analysis is wrong, but that doesnt make me think hes a wolf

i disagree with what rongs saying and he seems to be trying to keep village focus on ong. since i feel strongly ong is a villager, i dont understand why rong wouldnt see this, which makes me think hes wolfy (while if it was keith doing this, i think its more likely keith is making a mistake)

jyms is iffy. not much to go by here

i'm voting gator or rong

like i said you wolves are being really lazy . All we get out of you and jkds is that you think Ong is a villager without explaining your reasons why you think that he is a villager. Also you've spent all game so far saying that i'm a wolf. I put you in a list with JKDS and Ong as being the wolves and now you're hinting that i'm villager.you want us to consider other possible wolves....well i have you as a probable wolf and your change of tack confirms it in my mind.

[gabe]

ong is probably a villager just spewing like he always does. thats my reasoning. everything he's said fits into him actually being the n1 angel. him concocting this whole plan as a wolf would be very very difficult for him so i think that scenario is the least likely (occam's razor and all that)

i still think you might be a wolf, but the more you post the more i can see you just being a villager hung up on some bad assumptions. and NO, i have hardly spent all game saying you are a wolf. that type of exaggeration from you has become all too common

all my posting has been trying to help the village. you might think im a wolf because i disagree with you, i guess

[Keith]

it also fits with him being a wolf ....why do you and jkds find it so hard to admit that????? Add in his refusal to protect the villages remaining roles by fighting his lynch which he said he wouldn't do until; his bluff was called ......perhaps you can explain how that is pro village

[gabe]

keith you seem to type out your ideas/theories, then when you are made to defend your theories, you start believing them as fact instead of what they originally were

instead of believing the explanation you came up with, try exploring some other explanations for whats happening

[gabe]

it also fits with him being a wolf ....why do you and jkds find it so hard to admit that????? Add in his refusal to protect the villages remaining roles by fighting his lynch which he said he wouldn't do until; his bluff was called ......perhaps you can explain how that is pro village

i agree it fits, as in, its possible, but imo its so much more likely hes just playing ong style. i forget if you played the deadwolf game, but ong spewed so hard he challenged someone to a duel as a wolf and promptly lost. hes doing the same thing here... playing his role with maximum spewage. if he was a wolf, this plan of his would be carefully constructed, which i dont think is what happened

[gabe]

in b4 keith says "well he spewed as a wolf so hes probably doing it again!!!"

no thats not what hes doing here, if he was a wolf

[gabe]

ong is a polarizing figure so how about someone just look him up at night. thats fine with me. but i think village should lynch someone not him or related to the people hes arguing with because to me it seems like villagers just going at it

[rong]

Looking him up does solve a lot of problems, but it leads me to something that confuses me.

Lets say someone looks him up tonight. Assuming he's a villager do they just come out with that info? That tells the wolves who our known villagers are and who definitely isn't a seer still to act.

I mean if someone had a look up last night and hit a villager should they throw that info out?

Obv if you hit wolf then out sharpish.

[gabe]

i would out if i found a wolf, and just defend a known villager if they catch heat without saying i looked them up

i think we dont need to out for villagers because imo there is already a small group of confirmed villagers. if the person is 1 vote away from a lynch then its worth outing. ofc the wolves could do this but we will be smart on how we deal with any and all claims