Double Day Unlimited Werewolf

[baudib]

@Gabe

Rascal is a villager because his game aligns perfectly with what his villager game looks like. He literally has zero posts that aren't perfectly in character with what he does as a villager.

If you are a villager then I suggest that you have difficulty seeing Ong as a wolf. Same thing happened last game, when Rilla and I had him pegged off D1, and on D2 he claims that wolfbro Wuf "Breadcrumbed angel" when he was lead wagon and had done nothing of the sort, and you thought this was perfectly normal.

For quick recap, consider that last game, Ong was part of the brain trust that did this:

1. Had a wolf fake peek another wolf W.
2. Have that wolf then fake claim angel.
3. The third wolf then fake claimed seer with a W peek on the other wolf.
4. Despite narrowing the seer down to exactly rascal, the team then nommed a wolf.
5. Planned to go for the win by hoping a villager would suspect that a role that wasn't in the game was in play, and then try to get a seer-cleared villager mislynched.

Like, read that over again.

Now consider what is going on with this game, BID being killed and Ong setting up the wagons the way they are.

Read the posts I quoted from Ong's villager game and look how straightforward and carefree they are.

[gabe]

dang

ong did you trick me

[baudib]

ouch

that might be the wolfiest post I've ever seen from you.

lol

[gabe]

contrary to what gator thinks, i dont make wolfy posts when im a wolf

i thought we had this game in the bag 2 days ago. no need to panic...we just kill who we know arent certainly villagers

[baudib]

I'd say we're 50-50 right now.

[GatorJH]

Gabe is not a wolf. He was on the Luco bandwagon in a manner that doesn't make sense for him to be a wolf. I am highly confident that there weren't any wolves on that wagon.

[GatorJH]

lynch baudib

[baudib]

Gator

if this actually goes through (it won't), JKDS-me will end up being the worst B2B lynches of your WW career.

I know that you and Gabe can't both be wolves, but having a really hard time understanding how you could think lynching either of us was gonna be +EV

I am highly confident that there weren't any wolves on that wagon.

Did you decide this after you hammered JKDS?

[baudib]

or the best two I guess

[baudib]

Like, seriously people.

you just saw JKDS' flip

look at the work we did, the way our reads on each other progressed, the way we compared notes and cleared each other.

We were the likely wagons, if either of us are a wolf in that spot we LITERALLY NEVER hard clear each other and try to get "consensus" village Ong lynched. There's no end game as a wolf for either one of us.

Look at the interactions.

I mean, this is Varchertine all over again.

[lilrascal]

Just got back to the hotel. I'm going to see if I can figure out how to put these double votes in my spreadsheet to see what I can find.

[lilrascal]

My normal spreadsheet won't even come close to working for this game, especially with the way some people are voting for more than 2 and then rescinding one, some or all.

I'm not sure how Hoopy keeps up with this.

[lilrascal]

Don't care, kill ong after.

His argument is nonsensical tho, because if anything...it proves I wouldn't kill BID. I'm not a dummy.

But look over ong's posts rascal. His "focus" that you see is him being defensive when attacked. But even still, none of his posts sound real. Look at them, pit yourself in ong's position, and see if the way he reacted is the same way you would.

Meanwhile, he is constantly spreading paranoia, discrediting villa reads, and making arguments that make absolutely no sense. It's nonsensical in a way that ong normally isnt, and for all of these reasons he's a wolf.

He's fake laughing, he's bragging about the bid kill, he's defensive, but his posts are never consistent with how he should be feeling.

His argument is that Ive killed bid, even tho that leaves me to deal with a ton of ppl who didn't like me on day 1. His argument is that I'm reading him wrong, so I must be a wold. But I'm not reading him wrong...and wolf ong has no choice but to say I am.

Still, doesn't matter. Lynch me, then lynch ong. Baudib is a villa tho, andI feel like we can also trust rascal and gator.

Rascal, why do i back off baudib if im a wolf? What benefit did I have in even posting last night? Its so much easier to just do absolutely nothing and let baudib get lynched. So why didnt I? Wheres the benefit?

Ong says my hand is forced, but this situation only exists because Drew was nommed. So...the conclusion is I suck at picking nom targets, or put myself in this situation for fun. The conclusion is that I ignored killing gabe, even though he's been anti-jkds for awhile. The conclusion is that I deliberately left jkds-haters alive, who were also believed to be villagery, and also decided to help spread their credibility.

You must think im terrible.

To be fair, ong is sometimes just "like that". The arguments arent what gives him away, its the tone and mentality behind them. None of his things are "ah ha, die wolf", except for the ones where hes in 'do-or-die' mode in defense.

He did nothing to save mmm, hes gone out of his way to discredit villager reads like the luco wagon, and the way he has attacked this game feels a lot like throwing darts at a board rather than throwing a punch.

it matters a lot that he didnt save mmm tho. He called him a villager, then fucked off and let him die. Thats incredibly out of character for ong, who usually instigates and starts fights with people who dont agree with his reads. He didnt even try to stop the mmm lynch though, and the best reason is because mmm usually clears himself and him getting lynched was too good for ong to pass up.

Day 2 starts, and ong could give a fuck about the people that voted mmm. He does those night kill interpretation posts, then votes baudib. He doesnt think "a wolf killed mmm", the thought doesnt even cross his mind. Hes focused on how the night kill must implicate baudib.

These are good points by JKDS. I need to go and reassess Ong.

[lilrascal]

Votecount 2.2

2
JKDS - (Ong, lilrascal)

Ong - (JKDS, baudib)

1
baudib - (Gator)

gabe - (lilrascal)

4 hours 43mins left!

Hoopy posted this vote count where he is 1 vote behind JKDS and then less than an hour later, gabe starts to post.

wow my brain completely forgot about werewolf. its like i went to sleep thinking "we cant lose" so it didnt pop in my head all day

im catching up now

heres a paradox

This is gabe coming back into the game calling baudib's post a paradox when baudib said he hasn't been wolfy. But, this post is wolfy by gabe.

im inclined to believe ong. ive thought he was a villager all game. as jkds aptly described, i think ong is just "like that" and all the wolfy things you are picking up are just ong being "like that" in general. whatever that means

i wont be voting for ong. ill be around the thread now to analyze more

Now he says he'll be around to analyze the thread.

with my absence, ive naturally become suspicious. no suprise. dont see this as "gabe only responding when he is targeted"

But, that is exactly what it looks like.

i think its much more likely baudib is the villager....

ive highlighted a few sentences i thought were very wolfy





the "it makes sense that __" argument sounds like a wolf trying to justify (subconsciously to himself, consciously to everyone else) the story he is putting out there.


this paragraph feels forced... like that is your personal wolf to-do checklist bolded


i think its true jkds hasnt been focusing on this game too much. its because of that he made the wrong target in going for ong.

Here's the analysis, a few quotes from JKDS with minimal analysis.

also i never felt the reason for the shift off of rascal. im not sold on him. the argument seems to be that he posts villagery stuff, but we still have never seen him be wolf to have somewhat reads. and we should assume he would be good as a wolf since he has played often...

Now, he gives his reason for placing his vote on me, with no actual analysis.

lynch jkds
lynch rascal

Then gabe places his 2 votes and leaves for the day.

This is gabe's total posting for the last 3/4 of the day yesterday leading up to the JKDS lynch.

This is wolfy IMO and so much worse than the points that JKDS made about Ong.

lynch gabe

[baudib]

Ong got the lynch he insisted on and hasn't posted in 20 hours.

I'm sure no one finds this unusual at all.

[lilrascal]

dang

ong did you trick me

contrary to what gator thinks, i dont make wolfy posts when im a wolf

i thought we had this game in the bag 2 days ago. no need to panic...we just kill who we know arent certainly villagers

Wow. This SOD looks as bad as your EOD.

[lilrascal]

Ong got the lynch he insisted on and hasn't posted in 20 hours.

I'm sure no one finds this unusual at all.

I think he said he was going to be gone for most of the weekend. I'd have to go back and find when he posted that.

[lilrascal]

Gabe is not a wolf. He was on the Luco bandwagon in a manner that doesn't make sense for him to be a wolf. I am highly confident that there weren't any wolves on that wagon.

Gator, did you read gabe's EOD yesterday?

Also, I just went and looked at the D1 voting and these are gabe's votes leading up to the Luco lynch. These are consecutive posts just 5 minutes apart.

i think your ong vote is definitely worse than random. a few posts before ong gave a reason to clear me, i thought he was doing a very good job explaining himself and seeming like a villager. i feel good about not going after him at all for now and i felt this way before i noticed him defending me

lynch rascal
lynch luco

i'm going to keep these on for saying they would be inactive

those last 2 votes are to force them into finding ways to post more

i agree that gator's actions arent pure villagery. something is off. also the way he explained his take on the possible jkds derp-clear (love that term!) makes me suspicious of jkds. another thing is that jkds has shown in the past that he doesnt always feel compelled to participate heavily on day 1, but this time he mentioned a serious IRL issue with his fiance. the fight may be real, but i suspect jkds is more likely to post the excuse as a wolf than a villager

lynch gator
lynch jkds

And here's the final vote count.

Votecount 1.4

4
Luco - (gabe, Gator, Ong, JKDS)

3
Gator - (gabe, MMM, Ong)

baudib - (BID, MMM, Ong)

2
MMM - (Gator, baudib)

Ong - (JKDS, baudib)

lilrascal - (gabe, Ong)

1
JKDS - (gabe)

So, even though gabe was on the Luco wagon I don't give it a lot of credence since he was on four of the wagons.

[baudib]

Rascal, I don't think Gabe is the wolf that often.

[lilrascal]

Rascal, I don't think Gabe is the wolf that often.

Based on gabe's posting yesterday and today, I don't see it as villa.

[baudib]

I think Gabe is roughly rand to be a wolf. Give me a few im in a cab right now

[lilrascal]

I think Gabe is roughly rand to be a wolf. Give me a few im in a cab right now

Ok, standing by for a bit.

[baudib]

OK first off

like literally everyone but JKDS has ignored everything I've said about Ong and comparing his wolf and villager games, and pointedly out the HORRENDOUS posts he has made this game.

I get it, like JKDS had a handful of questionable posts, and certainly Gabe now as well.

If it's like JKDS has 4-5 baddish posts and Gabe has maybe 3-4, well Ong has like 50.

Maybe you don't understand because you've only seen him be a wolf or be total AIDS, but Ong is perfectly capable of being a very strong and shrewd villager.

Also, how many times are you going to go through this, "Baud is a wolf lean... now neutral. ... oh, Baud was a villager and was right all along." When I'm like literally the same every game as a villager.

also, you have never seen me wolf outside a turbo, so why do you keep saying, "I've seen Baud do this in both alignments."

[baudib]

update
Ong 55%
Gabe 25%
Gator 12%
Rascal 8%

[lilrascal]

From my pov it's solved. I'm a villager and so is gabe/gator. I'm happy enough with rascal too that I feel my lynch can be afforded, not that I think it will happen.

I'm glad I'm going away this weekend. It gives gabe and gator the chance to take control of this thing. I expect it to be over with the next lynch.

Here's Ong's post about being away for the weekend.

This was made a few hours before the lynch. I assumed that he'd be around for some of today and would be gone on Saturday and Sunday.

[baudib]

Rascal, these are consecutive posts. Do you not see the direct and glaringly obvious contradiction in them?

I'm sorry gator but the game is solved so long as you and gabe don't lose your faith in me out of frustration.

From my pov it's solved. I'm a villager and so is gabe/gator. I'm happy enough with rascal too that I feel my lynch can be afforded, not that I think it will happen.

I'm glad I'm going away this weekend. It gives gabe and gator the chance to take control of this thing. I expect it to be over with the next lynch.

[baudib]

Incidentally, Ong is probably lying. He never fucking goes anywhere.

[lilrascal]

OK first off

like literally everyone but JKDS has ignored everything I've said about Ong and comparing his wolf and villager games, and pointedly out the HORRENDOUS posts he has made this game.

I get it, like JKDS had a handful of questionable posts, and certainly Gabe now as well.

If it's like JKDS has 4-5 baddish posts and Gabe has maybe 3-4, well Ong has like 50.

Maybe you don't understand because you've only seen him be a wolf or be total AIDS, but Ong is perfectly capable of being a very strong and shrewd villager.

Also, how many times are you going to go through this, "Baud is a wolf lean... now neutral. ... oh, Baud was a villager and was right all along." When I'm like literally the same every game as a villager.

also, you have never seen me wolf outside a turbo, so why do you keep saying, "I've seen Baud do this in both alignments."

I need to go reread Ong. His play just reminded me of Vachertine.

I think what concerns me about you is that I feel like you may be trying to pocket me and after my play in the MU game where I was pocketed by the mafia as the doc and clearing most of them, I'm trying to not make that mistake again.

[lilrascal]

Rascal, these are consecutive posts. Do you not see the direct and glaringly obvious contradiction in them?

I'm seeing minor contradictions, but nothing glaring. The second post may be Ong trying to pocket me by adding my name to gabe's and gator's.

[lilrascal]

Incidentally, Ong is probably lying. He never fucking goes anywhere.

LOL

[baudib]

Rascal, first post says:

"Gator and Gabe, just don't lose faith in me and we'll win."

the second post says:

"Game is solved, we can win even if you lynch me."

the first one is blatant naked pocketing, he's not even trying to appeal to any other villagers in the game. Think about villa lists you make, or someone like SIU makes, where you have a circle of trust. You say, "Don't lynch Gator or Gabe" and we win. You don't say, "Gator and Gabe, don't lynch me!"

The second one indicates self-awareness of how self-serving the first one is. "Oh hey, yeah, I'm not that important."

[baudib]

Contrast that with this post I made after the lynch. I'm not even talking about myself.

I think the way to play this is going to be to pick 2 people who you think are villagers.

I'm going with Gator and Rascal.

[lilrascal]

Rascal, first post says:

"Gator and Gabe, just don't lose faith in me and we'll win."

the second post says:

"Game is solved, we can win even if you lynch me."

the first one is blatant naked pocketing, he's not even trying to appeal to any other villagers in the game. Think about villa lists you make, or someone like SIU makes, where you have a circle of trust. You say, "Don't lynch Gator or Gabe" and we win. You don't say, "Gator and Gabe, don't lynch me!"

The second one indicates self-awareness of how self-serving the first one is. "Oh hey, yeah, I'm not that important."

Good point. I wasn't looking at it that way.

[lilrascal]

rescind gabe

I need to go reread with a fresh mind.

[baudib]

Rascal, if you're reading Ong, check to see if he has a clear progression that makes sense that he has Gator and Gabe as lock clear from his POV.

[lilrascal]

Rascal, if you're reading Ong, check to see if he has a clear progression that makes sense that he has Gator and Gabe as lock clear from his POV.

I plan to look at everyone, but I'll look at that.

[baudib]

but yeah Gabe-Ong should always win this IMO, I just think it's more likely to be Ong. I think it's sorta important to get the order right, because it looks like Gator is still gonna lynch me at F3.

[lilrascal]

I'll look at things tomorrow after work. I'm going to bed now.

[gabe]

baudib has me convinced

the only problem is my inclinations have been completely wrong all game....

lynch ong

[gabe]

i think when i said early on that ong was the mvp, that influenced how i read ong for the rest of the game. i didnt scrutinize him enough because of that

[Hoopy]

Votecount 2.4

2
Ong - (baudib, gabe)

1
gabe - (baudib)

baudib - (Gator)

About 26 hours left.

[GatorJH]

Gator

if this actually goes through (it won't), JKDS-me will end up being the worst B2B lynches of your WW career.

I know that you and Gabe can't both be wolves, but having a really hard time understanding how you could think lynching either of us was gonna be +EV



Did you decide this after you hammered JKDS?

You are by far the person with the wolfiest posts these games and yet you have managed to throw enough doubt out there to avoid lynch.

Not today.

[GatorJH]

Rascal, first post says:

"Gator and Gabe, just don't lose faith in me and we'll win."

the second post says:

"Game is solved, we can win even if you lynch me."

the first one is blatant naked pocketing, he's not even trying to appeal to any other villagers in the game. Think about villa lists you make, or someone like SIU makes, where you have a circle of trust. You say, "Don't lynch Gator or Gabe" and we win. You don't say, "Gator and Gabe, don't lynch me!"

The second one indicates self-awareness of how self-serving the first one is. "Oh hey, yeah, I'm not that important."

Another idea. Ong is a villager, is highly confident that Gabe and I are villagers and thinks we will win.

[GatorJH]

but yeah Gabe-Ong should always win this IMO, I just think it's more likely to be Ong. I think it's sorta important to get the order right, because it looks like Gator is still gonna lynch me at F3.

You are wrong. I am lynching you today. You are EXTREMELY good at manipulating peoples words to make them fit your theories. I am not buying it any more.

[GatorJH]

baudib has me convinced

the only problem is my inclinations have been completely wrong all game....

lynch ong

sigh. If Baudib ends up winning as a lone wolf after kill 1 and all the focus on him it will be the greatest wolf win of all time.

[GatorJH]

there's nothing inconsistent Rascal, I'm just changing my mind a lot between pretty close equities.


literally in my head this morning, before seeing the reveal, I went from "Well it has to be Rascal but I want to YOLO JKDS" to "WOW THAT NIGHTKILL IS TOTALLY JKDS" to "Meh only Rascal probably kills BID there" in like 5 mins.

if that's what you mean by inconsistent then you're flat out lying because that's no different than any EOD in every turbo ever.

One of many quotes where Baudib gently persuades and hedges. He has been doing this the entire game. Asking various people what they think of others, then somewhat piling on. I am, IIRC, the only person he hasn't done that with and I am pretty sure it is because I am his nom for tonight so he is ok with locking me as a villager.

[baudib]

yeah manipulating you guys into saving JKDS worked out really well for me didn't it.

Gator, this is exactly what you said last time we played together when you said I could be a better wolf than you. I was a villager then just like I am now. Pretty obvious too.

[baudib]

If there's anything giving me pause about anything, it's the way Gabe turned around and agreed with me. He didn't even acknowledge the things I said to JKDS, and he took those things to lynch JKDS and not consider what they meant for Ong.

[baudib]

You guys should consider attending a seminar at the St. Keybored School for WW Atonement for that JKDS lynch too. He was a painfully obvious villager taking a massively -EV wolf line. Arguably the worst lynch I've seen.

I've gone, it changed my life.

[baudib]

In other news, Gator really likely a villager for posts 944-946.

I actually don't think Gator fakes paranoia that well as a wolf.

[GatorJH]

I can't even recognize a case that you're making on JKDS, as simple as it's supposed to be. That he posted a two-liner and left? He clearly spent a lot of time trying to reread you and trying to figure out your alignment.

His hand certainly isn't forced. I don't like Wolf JKDS' chances here, but his best shot at winning this game was going along with POE and killing me and Rascal and then glgl at F3.

This doesn't look like you saying OMG JKDS is so obviously a villager.

[GatorJH]

updated
Ong 50%
Gabe 20%
Rascal 10%
JKDS 10%
Gator 10%

Credit for this one though.

[GatorJH]

Even with that though I could see wolf Baudib wanting to keep JKDS alive till later.

[baudib]

Gator how confident are you in Gabe being a villager?

[GatorJH]

Gator how confident are you in Gabe being a villager?

greater than 50%

[baudib]

Gator imagine you are in my spot yesterday and you are a wolf. Your most plausible mislynch counter wagons are JKDS and Rascal.

Do you then push to try to get one of them lynched or do you work to try to clear both of them, and then try to lynch someone 2 other villagers had hard cleared on D1?

If you think I am such an amazing wolf, where is my motivation there?

[GatorJH]

Gator imagine you are in my spot yesterday and you are a wolf. Your most plausible mislynch counter wagons are JKDS and Rascal.

Do you then push to try to get one of them lynched or do you work to try to clear both of them, and then try to lynch someone 2 other villagers had hard cleared on D1?

If you think I am such an amazing wolf, where is my motivation there?

You answered your own question. If your most obvious play was JKDS or Rascal then you do the obvious and go after someone else. Gabe and Ong are logical choices because even if you don't succeed you allow yourself to keep that narrative going today.

Here is a question for you. Why do you consider me suck a lock for villager? I was on the mmm bandwagon. Had you bolder most of the day, but then flipped to JKDS at the end with little to no justification stated (other then the analysis I had done earlier) and to be completely honest, if I look at the 4 posts you said make me look so villagery I just don't see it.

You keep saying I am clearly a villager but have also questioned others about that same stance because "Gabe and Gator should never be lock villagers".

It discrepancies like this that make you my top candidate for the last wolf.

[baudib]

Because your motivation and intent clearly show you to be a villager.

Of all the people who voted for Luco, you're the least likely to do so as a wolf. I know that you can bus when necessary but it just wasn't at that point. As a wolf you can deflect heat long enough to not need to do something for instant villa cred. I think your M.O. as a wolf (and I have actually never played villager to your wolf game, believe it or not, but have read several games where you were, and we were W/W once) is to find opportunities to let villagers make mistakes, adjusting to the situation as necessary.

Of everyone who voted for Luco, your reason looks to be the most compelling, that MMM was looking wolfy and his moves on D1 look like a defense of Luco. You were pushing MMM harder and ended up getting Luco lynched as a prize.

You had by far the most clear and pure reasons for voting Luco. JKDS seemingly voted him out of whimsy, Ong very similar. Gabe pushed Luco/Rascal as they were laying slank cover.

*********************

Incidentally I think Gabe is somewhat unlikely to vote for wolfbro Luco there, as he has a way of making cases on D1 that are often influential and lead to village lynches without drawing direct suspicion to himself.

That is, if Gabe were a wolf I'd suspect he'd say something on D1 like this: "Luco gave a good reason for being absent, it's probably role-neutral. There are wolfy people in the thread, MMM is acting weird, let's give Luco a day." And MMM gets lynched and Gabe gets little blame for it.

Gabe making what I feel was a bad and arguably intellectually dishonest case on JKDS and his TWTBAW (?) "Dang it, Ong, did you trick me?" posts have me a little concerned, but I actually have stronger confidence in Gabe being a villager than you do (75% vs. 50%).

*******************************

If you look at some of Ong's recent wolf games, this is exactly how Ong wolfs. You weren't in the ghost angel game, but Ong bussed me on D1 and Rilla on D2 and live to the end. In the May game, I detailed the crazy bussing that went on there, but basically by D2 the wolves knew they were screwed, so they all fake claimed, with 2 of them claiming a W peek on another wolf.

Here's the thing about Ong. He might be the most strategically sound player on the site, but he is paranoid as a wolf and ALWAYS tries to FPS to get cleared. He can't get cleared via his posting. When Ong is a villager, he doesn't worry about how wolfy or lackadaisical he looks, because he has the conviction that he's a villager. Among the living players he's the only one who would 100% bus Luco for credit.

[baudib]

You keep saying I am clearly a villager but have also questioned others about that same stance because "Gabe and Gator should never be lock villagers".

It discrepancies like this that make you my top candidate for the last wolf.

I don't actually know what cases you're talking about but if you quote them I'll let you know what I was thinking. It was actually Ong who was questioning people on this.

if you're talking about JKDS, when we were talking about various players, I was trying to see if he had real reasons for believing what he said or if he was merely leaking TMI.

[baudib]

Anyway, Gator, if your POE is exactly me-Ong, we should win most of the time.

Don't lynch Rascal.

Rascal, don't lynch Gator.

[GatorJH]

Anyway, Gator, if your POE is exactly me-Ong, we should win most of the time.

Don't lynch Rascal.

Rascal, don't lynch Gator.

That is where my head is right now.

I would take a hard look at Gabe but Rascal is safe.

[lilrascal]

I just got to the hotel. I'm eating Taco Bell drive-thru while I catch up and do some rereading.

[GatorJH]

I just got to the hotel. I'm eating Taco Bell drive-thru while I catch up and do some rereading.

Yummy

[lilrascal]

Yummy

Not really, especially after the day I've had.

[lilrascal]

Not a lot to catch up on since last night. Going to do some rereading.

[lilrascal]

I just read through Ong. I was going to do an MQ of him, but there's too many posts for that.

D1, he starts out looking like villa Ong to me and is on the Luco lynch. But, he mentions in at least a couple of posts that no one should get credit for being on the Luco wagon. This could be him setting up the others on the Luco wagon. After the Luco lynch he starts out saying MMM has a couple of villagery posts and then just a few minutes later starts pointing out wolfy things from MMM and soft pushes him without ever getting on the MMM wagon. I'm not sure if this is good or bad for Ong. On the surface it looks good, but it could be him distancing himself from the lynch.

D2, he pretty much pushed JKDS all day.

Throughout all of this, he's been battling baudib and votes and rescinds him. In fact, he was calling baudib a wolf and then rescinded him just before it could get a MAJ. Ong accused baudib of being a wolf and the reason that Ong wasn't nommed is because baudib didn't want to stand out in the post count. Ong may be doing what he accused baudib of doing.

In not sure what to think about him going away for the weekend.

On rereading, he's been making a lot of pushes at everyone in the game. Plus, he's had some really wolfy posts with his bwahaha comment and liking the drew kill.

I think I got focused on my earlier read of him just being Ong who I normally find wolfy, even when he's a villager.

[baudib]

Rascal, if you're reading Ong, check to see if he has a clear progression that makes sense that he has Gator and Gabe as lock clear from his POV.

,,,

[lilrascal]

I just read thru gabe.

D1, he came in late in the day and was the 4th vote on the Luco wagon and was voting 3 others as well. His first post after the lynch, he says he's cleared because he voted Luco and then votes for JKDS and gator who were also on the Luco wagon. When he first gets questioned about this, he says "but i would not start off this way because it doesnt seem like a good play". When he continues to be asked about it in #262, he says others get credit too and then votes again for JKDS and gator. It's not until #356 that he admits that he made a mistake in not giving gator (no mention of JKDS or Ong who were also on the Luco wagon) credit for voting Luco. This post is just after him making a case against MMM.

D2, he focuses on JKDS and also votes for me. I don't see a lot of progression on his reads, except for his vote on JKDS. Other than that, he's more in general commenting mode and not wolf hunting mode.

I'm not sure what everyone else is finding so villagery about gabe. To be honest, I just don't see it. Maybe it's because he's been voting me half the game or it's his lack of participation when he says he's going to be posting more and doesn't

[lilrascal]

Rascal, if you're reading Ong, check to see if he has a clear progression that makes sense that he has Gator and Gabe as lock clear from his POV.

,,,

I forgot about this when I reread him. But, thinking on it, I don't remember anything where he made that progression. In fact, he pushed at gator several times. Looking at the votes, he was on both gator and gabe for the first lynch and rescinded gabe just before the Luco lynch. The second half of D1, he voted and then immediately rescinded both of them. I just went back and looked at when he rescinded gator in #173; he quoted one of gator's posts that said "Ong is heavy villager lean right now" and mentions that gator looks good for the Luco lynch, but as I pointed out earlier, he later states no one should get credit for the Luco lynch, himself included.

[lilrascal]

I just read thru gator.

His posting has been game solving and I haven't seen anything that has been wolfy. The only inconsistency that I could find is in these two posts, but to be fair they were made days apart from each other.

Well crap. I am back to square 1 because I totally missed that this was his only post of day 1. It is totally feasible that with Luco not being able to participate that he apologized to his fellow wolf and they devised the "lynch me day 1 and gain major villager cred" strategy.

When I look at it this way Luco's name on JKDS' list doesn't make that much sense. I can see him putting myself, Gabe and Baudib there, but why Luco? And if he knew Luco wasn't going to be around to defend himself it makes it easy to find reasons to unbold the others and not look suspicious. JKDS is certainly good enough of a wolf to pull this off.

It also potentially validates him not posting so villagers wouldn't have anything else to go on (even though he could have left some fake bread crumbs).

I guess I need to look deeper at JKDS' posts.

Gabe is not a wolf. He was on the Luco bandwagon in a manner that doesn't make sense for him to be a wolf. I am highly confident that there weren't any wolves on that wagon.

Even though I haven't played with gator before, I'm fairly confident that gator's a villager.

[lilrascal]

For the love of God can one of baudib or Ong please die so we can get back to solving the game.

Also, you gotta love a guy that makes this post.

[gabe]

why dont we cinch ong now... we'll see what happens tomorrow

lilrascal i see that youre saying you dont find me to be a lock villager. pretty much all the evidence of why im a villager came in an earlier part of the game (not the very very beginning). since then i felt that there wasnt a challenge left so i havent checked back much.

also btw you said i had some wolfy EOD posts but those posts were at the beginning of the day (around where i said "ong did you trick me?")

[lilrascal]

I wasn't able to do a thorough reread of baudib like I did with everyone else since it's 1/3 of the thread. However, I did reread most of his game, which isn't as hard as I thought it would be because most of his posts are short and are like his turbo game.

The first 5 and a half pages (100 ppp) look just like baudib's turbo villa game, which is quick and reacting to posts in real time. After that, he bounces back and forth between his turbo game style and long game style where he does much more analysis. On reread, I feel better about the real time interaction that I had with him which felt natural and villagery.

I've played with baudib more than anyone else on this site, and I feel I can read him ok.

My gut tells me that baudib is villa here.

[lilrascal]

Wow. This SOD looks as bad as your EOD.

why dont we cinch ong now... we'll see what happens tomorrow

lilrascal i see that youre saying you dont find me to be a lock villager. pretty much all the evidence of why im a villager came in an earlier part of the game (not the very very beginning). since then i felt that there wasnt a challenge left so i havent checked back much.

also btw you said i had some wolfy EOD posts but those posts were at the beginning of the day (around where i said "ong did you trick me?")

I quoted those as your SOD posts and said they seemed as bad as your EOD posts.

[lilrascal]

Here's where I stand in order from most villagery to wolfy:

gator
baudib


gabe
Ong

gabe and Ong are essentially a toss-up for me.

lynch Ong

And I'm pretty sure that's MAJ unless I missed something in my vote count.