Christmas Carnage II

[OngBonga]

And finally, you and I have been putting a ton of analysis in while he has basically just sat back and rested on that rescind making him look villager. However, when you REALLY look at how things played out it wasn't that balsy of a move for a wolf to make.

This though does give me pause for thought.

I can see rascal being a wolf here. But more often than you? That's what matters.

[GatorJH]

Hoopy and me were mutually reading each other as near locks. I don't think hoopy-ong is better for you from a wolf pov than rascal-ong. You at least know that rascal is not sure enough of me that he might vote for me. Hell, it makes sense actually for you to swing for rascal here instead of me, because you might convince me, and rascal still might vote for me.

If this is true then why Hoopy and not you? IIRC you had been more vocal about me being next than Hoopy.

[GatorJH]

Ok so drew is clearly today's lynch. He's easily the least villagery.

I'm near certain that hoopy and rascal are villagers, so if somehow it's not drew, then it has to be gator. it must be said, gator does seem very town toned, but I had him as nailed town last game and was wrong. We all know how good gator is and he can be wolfing here.

drew >>>>>>>> gator >>> rascal/hoopy

Based on this alone I should have nommed you.

[GatorJH]

I think drew is the best lynch by far today. Plenty of time left though, I'd like to have some more thoughts from rascal.

Off to bed.

Two more posts that make more sense for me to nom you instead of Hoopy. He would have, at least, been willing to look at Rascal.

[GatorJH]

This was the other one that should have been included with the above.

The red flag for me with drew is that he stated that ong and boog were wolves. But with the boog wagon gaining ground he stayed put on ong until the eod. Yesterday really reads like we had 2 wolf wagons and they didn't know what to do about it.

rascal looks ok to me for rescinding JKDS late on day 1 which put BooG in danger. I need to reread his day 2.

ong is a villager based on his tone, detective work and argument with rilla.

Gator is the wildcard.

[GatorJH]

If I were a wolf and didn't nom Rascal then you would have been a much better choice for me than Hoopy. If you look at that openly you will see it. Nomming hoopy would have been FPS and I am too good of a wolf for that, especially at this point in the game. I would have nommed either you or Rascal. Hoopy doesn't make sense if I am a wolf OR if you are a wolf. It only makes sense if Rascal is a wolf.

[OngBonga]

I fucking hate final three.

[OngBonga]

I'm waiting for rascal. I want him to respond to you.

[GatorJH]

I'm waiting for rascal. I want him to respond to you.

That's fair and solidifies my thought that you are a villager.

[lilrascal]

I'm checking in at lunch. I've made it halfway thru my reread. Based on that I'm leaning Ong for the last wolf. Then I see the above posts by gator and I'm not so sure about Ong anymore.

I'll finish my reread after work and will be online this evening. Whichever one of you is the villager, please start posting villagery. I feel like I'm in an f3 with two wolves.

[GatorJH]

I'm checking in at lunch. I've made it halfway thru my reread. Based on that I'm leaning Ong for the last wolf. Then I see the above posts by gator and I'm not so sure about Ong anymore.

I'll finish my reread after work and will be online this evening. Whichever one of you is the villager, please start posting villagery. I feel like I'm in an f3 with two wolves.

I am very interested in seeing your notes on both Ong and me.

What about either of our posts today do you find wolfish?

[GatorJH]

Rascal,
If I am a wolf why would I spend so much energy trying to convince Ong that you are a wolf when it would be much easier to convince you of him?

[lilrascal]

I am very interested in seeing your notes on both Ong and me.

What about either of our posts today do you find wolfish?

Based on today's posts I find Ong to be more villagery than you. Ong's posts from the first two days sound very wolfy, but his earlier posts today seem ok. I still need to finish catching up though.

Your post above about me is what had me rethinking it all. You seem to be FPSing here and that gives me some concerns that I might be wrong about Ong.

[lilrascal]

Rascal,
If I am a wolf why would I spend so much energy trying to convince Ong that you are a wolf when it would be much easier to convince you of him?

Idk, I think that's what makes you a good wolf. You hey people to rethink their reads.

[lilrascal]

hey should be get in the above post. Stupid autocorrect. I hate phone posting.

[lilrascal]

gator, where's your analysis of Ong?

If you're a villager, then you should have looked at that too rather than just casting shade on me.

[lilrascal]

Back to work now. I'll finish rereading this evening.

[GatorJH]

gator, where's your analysis of Ong?

If you're a villager, then you should have looked at that too rather than just casting shade on me.

That analysis is next on the list. I had to get yours done before Ong voted for me and village lost the game.

[GatorJH]

Analysis of Ong

Day 1

Jumps right in with a vote for Drew then moves to JKDS with this post:

Weird.

lynch JKDS

I find it very wolfy that JKDS is using stuff that he can't elaborate on to imply boog is wolfy.

I do get that this game is strange in that there's things we can't talk about, and I just deleted a block of text because I don't want to make life difficult for mojo. But I'll say this... JKDS is implying more than boog being a wolf here, and I think it's reckless of JKDS to say what he did. Too reckless imo.

I think JKDS is a wolf who didn't think that through enough.

Now that we know Boog was indeed a wolf this feels more villagery than wolfish. Would he mention Boog as a wolf so much if they were fellow wolves or would he move to JKDS without mentioning Boog much? I think the latter would be more likely than the former.

Another post where he references Boog. Why would a fellow wolf ask this?

What am I missing? What did boog say about rilla's momma? Why is this even relevant?

Ong openly defending Boog again and also calling JKDS out for implying he is a special. Would a wolf be this blatant?

I assuming noone is on my wavelength when it comes to my suspicion of JKDS.

Let's see if I can elaborate without crossing any lines.

Ask yourself why JKDS would be in a position to suspect boog is likely a wolf. Ask yourself if, in such a position, JKDS would draw such obvious attention to himself so early.

JKDS is implying more than boog wolf. He's also implying JKDS special. And that is not something I would expect JKDS to spew so casually.

More probing and trying to solve stuff - villager cred

Also, why is rilla asking gabe to respond to stuff that was posted after gabe's last post?

His next few posts continue his attacking of JKDS and mentions Boog in severa more, including this one. Would a fellow wolf openly defend his buddy this much? Now THAT would be pretty balsy for day 1.

I guess it comes down to how you interpret his attack on boog. He's dismissing it as lol it's d1 lynch boog, but I'm not buying it. He used language that, under the circumstances, can be considered ambiguous. It can have the effect of having people assume boog is > rand to be wolf (note gabe's recent posts), but if boog turns up villager, JKDS is protected from having to explain himself by the first rule of fight club. It's wolfy as hell. Furthermore, I think for JKDS to be villager, he's not only implying boog wolf, he implies JKDS special, and I don't think JKDS is ever that reckless as special.

It's easily the most compelling case I can see for today's lynch. I mean the best you can do is drew for being "terse".

At this point in the day JKDS is now in the lead with 3 votes. Ong then makes this post:

gabe just did what I've been screaming at JKDS for.

Except gabe can't even pretend to not realise that it's a HUGE SPECIAL TELL because I've relentlessly pointed this out.

I can dig a gabe lynch too. gabe isn't that reckless either.

Wolves like to try to find specials without calling them out in the thread. Ong doesn't do that (although I think this is a mistake as a villager that is for a different conversation on a different day).

Day 1 ends with a JKDS lynch. I just don't see Ong being this openly defensive of Boog if they were both wolves. Wolves tend to avoid or attack each other but RARELY openly defend each other.

Day 2

quotes Gabe and votes for Rilla implying Gabe died because of his suspicion of Rilla - null at best but could be wolfish.


Another post where he openly defends Boog

Scanning through rilla's posts, his focus is largely on boog, gabe, me and jkds. I can see 3/4 villagers here and I'm not sure rilla would be pushing at what's likely his only buddy on d1, so boog looks good to me also.

rascal tried to slam the brakes on the jkds wagon when I doubt wolves would, I think he's very likely villager.

I got rilla as wolf, with boog and rascal as villagers.

His next couple of thousand posts are him and rilla going back and forth. They read super villager to me. He has his read and he is sticking to it (again, this is a flaw of his if you ask me).

Then he does this.

My problem here is we have a dead seer who was telling us you're likely a wolf.

How much of a liability are you at endgame rilla if you're a villager? Then again how much of a liability am I if you're a villager.

Fuck this I've had enough, I'm sleeping on it.

rescind

If he were a wolf his strategy is to focus on one person per day. This rescind goes against that supposed strategy. Villager points.

Drew then makes this post....

All right

Show's over

Let's do this.

LEROYYYYYYYYYYY
JENKINNNNNNNNS

lynch ong

fellow villagers, get on board with this.

...which is followed by this post by ong:

drew has had little to say this game, but what he has said is... ong is a villager, lynch jkds; ong is a villager, lynch rilla; ong isn't a villager, lynch ong.

lynch drew

It shows he is paying attention but is as nul as villager.

He then made this post when he and two others had one vote each.

I can't be fucked with another day of this. Lynch me today please, I don't want to be the mislynch for the wolf win.

If his mode was to be balsy as fuck then this post makes sense, otherwise not so much.

This is where he starts to show his love for Rascal

He tried to slam the brakes on the JKDS wagon when it was about to go through. There's no need for a wolf to do that. rascal is my top villager read.

He makes this post. Wouldn't a wolf want me to nix villager reads?

gator's first post and he's trying to nip village reads in the bud.

I want smf back.

Ong agreeing with my synopsis of Rascal here - not role indicative, just pointing it out.

I agree with this, even if rascal can't be cleared for backing off JKDS. At least we know if he's a wolf that he voted for another villager. Otherwise he's crazier than I am.

defends himself from Drew who said the wolves were Boog and Ong - could be either role

For someone who can read me when I'm wolf near perfectly, you don't seem to have a very good memory of how I go about wolfing.

If I'm wolf with boog, I'd have been looking to bus him as soon as JKDS named him as his rand.

Here Boog outs as the angel and says he protected Ong. Would a wolf on the ropes really do that?

Seems as if nobody's around. I probably should have outed earlier. I'm an angel. I protected Ong my first night.

Ong then immediately pokes holes in that theory with this post. If there is any FPS going on in the game THIS would be it.

Why the hell would you protect me? I'd just run a bad JKDS wagon, I'm the last person the wolves would nom.

Ong then makes these two posts. If all of the above was a ploy wouldn't he just vote for Boog here to get the villager cred?

I can't see an angel protecting me. Furthermore, if boog is a wolf, what does he think happens here by claiming? We lynch drew.

Which implies drew is a villager.

rescind

I'm prepared to vote boog here, but doing so nails it. I'll hold fire in case anyone wants to add anything.

Boog then rescinds his claim and Ong ends up voting for him. Yes this could be a ploy, but that would be pretty elaborate and huge FPS for and end of the day claim when it would be easier for wolf Ong to just stick with his vote on BID.

Day 3

Everybody was focused on Drew so nul, but Ong did at least make a long post where he had gone through the thread to validate his thoughts. That is a ton of effort for what a wolf would think is a slam dunk lynch for Drew.

Synopsis - Ong openly defending Boog that hard early in the game just doesn't make sense to me. He has also, even while tinfoiling, tried to solve the game at every turn. I just don't see Ong being a wolf here and, if he is, HE has actually played the better game as it is wrought with risk.

[GatorJH]

tl;dr

Rascal is a wolf and Ong is a villager.

[GatorJH]

Ong, I will respond to your analysis on me later this evening.

[OngBonga]

This seemed so simple at the start of the day.

I'm eagerly anticipating rascal's analysis. Right now I'm liking gator more than I did at the start of the day, but quite whether he's swung the balance is not something I can really assess until rascal has posted more detailed thoughts.

This is what's bugging me the most right now...

If rascal is the wolf, he'd feel certain he can rely on my vote. rascal would definitely bring me to a final three. Would gator? I feel like gator would bring me here if he planned to sell me to rascal. That seems like a reasonable path to victory. But bringing me here to try and get my vote on rascal? gator is right, if he planned to lynch rascal for the win, he'd be better off bringing hoopy. There's no reason why gator would think he can change the mind of the most notoriously stubborn fucker since keith.

You know what, I think gator has swung it. rascal, if you're the villager, then you need to get villagering.

[OngBonga]

gah if you're the wolf gator I fucking hate you.

[lilrascal]

I just got home. I can answer questions of go finish my reread now.

[OngBonga]

Is gator here too?

[lilrascal]

gah if you're the wolf gator I fucking hate you.

I think gator is the wolf. I was all set to vote you, but his analysis of each of us can't come from a villager perspective IMO.

[OngBonga]

I think gator is the wolf. I was all set to vote you, but his analysis of each of us can't come from a villager perspective IMO.

Please explain why.

[lilrascal]

Apparently, I approach f3 from a different perspective. I'm looking for the other villager, not the wolf. At the start of today, I had gator as more villagery, but that's not the case now.

Ong, what has me concerned about you is you sticking to your wrong D1 and D2 reads.

[OngBonga]

Ong, what has me concerned about you is you sticking to your wrong D1 and D2 reads.

Yeah well hopefully I'll wuf this one and play shit until it matters.

[lilrascal]

Please explain why.

When I look at your thought processes and refusal to look at what several people were saying about JKDS and especially you not seeing that gabe had a villa seer peek on JKDS and not a wolf peek on rilla. You seemed to be closed minded about your views there, which is wolfy, but tbh, I've seen you do that as villa too (especially in the Vachertines games).

[OngBonga]

Apparently, I approach f3 from a different perspective. I'm looking for the other villager, not the wolf. At the start of today, I had gator as more villagery, but that's not the case now.

I started today thinking I already found the villager. Now I'm not so sure.

What are you seeing with gator's analysis that I'm not?

[lilrascal]

The other thing about gator's analysis, especially of me is how it differs so much from yours. I know I'm a villager (and yes I'd say that as a wolf), but you read me as a villager as well. Please explain how gator can start the day off with no way I'm a wolf and then make that total reversal on his read. It makes mo sense.

I think he did it because he saw you were going to be voting him and I listed him as my POE candidate yesterday, so the only way for him to win is to get you to vote for me.

[OngBonga]

The other thing about gator's analysis, especially of me is how it differs so much from yours. I know I'm a villager (and yes I'd say that as a wolf), but you read me as a villager as well. Please explain how gator can start the day off with no way I'm a wolf and then make that total reversal on his read. It makes mo sense.

I think he did it because he saw you were going to be voting him and I listed him as my POE candidate yesterday, so the only way for him to win is to get you to vote for me.

If he's the wolf, his best hope is to get you to vote for me. You even say you were all set to vote for me. Why is he going for you instead of me? I've played like shit, I'd be the mush easier mislynch.

[lilrascal]

I started today thinking I already found the villager. Now I'm not so sure.

What are you seeing with gator's analysis that I'm not?

If he's a villager, look at the case you made about me and see how he twisted it, and then look at you're voting record and other things that I've brought up and I can't see him getting to the conclusion that he did.

When you really look at his analysis of you, it's not a case of see how villagery he is, but a case of TWTBAW.

[lilrascal]

If he's the wolf, his best hope is to get you to vote for me. You even say you were all set to vote for me. Why is he going for you instead of me? I've played like shit, I'd be the mush easier mislynch.

That's what doesn't make sense to me. I didn't expect there to be an f3. I thought the game was over. And I expected to get NK'd instead of Hoopy last night.

[OngBonga]

...and then look at you're voting record and other things that I've brought up and I can't see him getting to the conclusion that he did.

ugh you know what you have a fucking point here.

gator seems to have me too strongly as villager considering how I've played.

[OngBonga]

That's what doesn't make sense to me. I didn't expect there to be an f3. I thought the game was over. And I expected to get NK'd instead of Hoopy last night.

Why do you think hoopy was nommed?

[OngBonga]

Or more to the point, why is gator going for you today and not me. That's where I'm stuck.

[lilrascal]

ugh you know what you have a fucking point here.

gator seems to have me too strongly as villager considering how I've played.

He could have easily won if he pushed for you, I could have easily been swayed, but the case he makes is not from a villager POV.

[OngBonga]

He could have easily won if he pushed for you, I could have easily been swayed, but the case he makes is not from a villager POV.

This is why I wouldn't bring you to final three, fwiw.

[lilrascal]

Why do you think hoopy was nommed?

I'm not sure, but from a game integrity perspective, I think it was a good call since he's the only one that didn't post after BID arrooo'd.

[OngBonga]

I'm not sure, but from a game integrity perspective, I think it was a good call since he's the only one that didn't post after BID arrooo'd.

Interesting way of looking at it. That hadn't even occured to me.

[lilrascal]

Ong, can you explain why you thought gabe's peek was villa wolf instead of JKDS villa?

That's part of my biggest problem that I have with you this game.

[OngBonga]

because he said so? lemme find it.

[lilrascal]

Interesting way of looking at it. That hadn't even occured to me.

It happens a lot in turbos when there's a no show. It's a classier play. Props to whoever did it btw.

[OngBonga]

i also should add that i like voting for rilla, for the same type of reason that i think jkds wants to kill boog. so thats pretty funny that you (rilla) are antagonizing me currently

This. I interpret this as "jkds tried to rand boog wolf, I tried to rand rilla wolf".

[lilrascal]

because he said so? lemme find it.

I'd like to see that. I saw him hard defending JKDS, which is why I think he get NK'd over me with my fake peek of you.

[OngBonga]

I never thought anyone had an actual peek. I was always implying that it was an attempt to rand them wolf.

[lilrascal]

This. I interpret this as "jkds tried to rand boog wolf, I tried to rand rilla wolf".

I get that, but I'm talking about the peek once he flipped. The peek was obviously JKDS IMO.

[lilrascal]

I never thought anyone had an actual peek. I was always implying that it was an attempt to rand them wolf.

I can't see gabe hard defending JKDS the way he did unless he was his N0 villa peek.

[OngBonga]

I get that, but I'm talking about the peek once he flipped. The peek was obviously JKDS IMO.

I don't think he had a peek? JKDS got lynched d1, seers don't normally get n0 peeks. Why would you think he had a peek on a villager who got lynched d1?

[OngBonga]

I can't see gabe hard defending JKDS the way he did unless he was his N0 villa peek.

I doubt it very much. But it's specualtion. It's possible, but very much unusual.

[lilrascal]

I don't think he had a peek? JKDS got lynched d1, seers don't normally get n0 peeks. Why would you think he had a peek on a villager who got lynched d1?

In 9er games that I've played, the seer always gets a N0 villa peek.

[lilrascal]

rescind your jkds votes. hes my strongest villager so far. he doesnt need to post like this as a wolf

ong you are making a bad vote on jkds. count on it

These two posts are where I had JKDS as gabe's villa peek.

[OngBonga]

In 9er games that I've played, the seer always gets a N0 villa peek.

We don't often have games this small here so idk. But I didn't think gabe had a n0 clear on JKDS, otherwise I wouldn't have pushed for him.

[lilrascal]

We don't often have games this small here so idk. But I didn't think gabe had a n0 clear on JKDS, otherwise I wouldn't have pushed for him.

True. 9 is the normal for a turbo, so I'm fairly familiar with it. That's why I left seer cover on D1, because that's what I always do in a 9er.

[lilrascal]

What are your thoughts now?

[OngBonga]

I'm now thinking this puts you as the person most likely to suspect gabe is the seer.

That was a n1 hit. SMF wasn't paying attention, boog only plays here and probably wouldn't expect a n0 peek.

[lilrascal]

I'm now thinking this puts you as the person most likely to suspect gabe is the seer.

That was a n1 hit. SMF wasn't paying attention, boog only plays here and probably wouldn't expect a n0 peek.

LOL. That's why I switched off of JKDS and kept up my seer cover of you as villa. Which is why I was suspicious of you at the start of D2.

[OngBonga]

Yeah I remember you saying you not being nommed was worthy of note. Maybe you weren't nommed because you're the wolf?

[lilrascal]

Yeah I remember you saying you not being nommed was worthy of note. Maybe you weren't nommed because you're the wolf?

Your tinfoil is getting to you again.

[OngBonga]

We need gator here.

[lilrascal]

We need gator here.

That will really help with the tinfoiling. He's already totally reversed himself and twisted his reads.

[lilrascal]

Also, I don't think there's anything he can say that will sway me at this point. I think you're the other villager and he's the wolf.

I'll be voting for him in a bit since I won't be around tomorrow because of work.

[OngBonga]

I'm gonna watch some TV for a bit, this is frying my brain. I'm not nearly ready to vote, I'm certainly gonna be sleeping on it.

How long do we have?

[lilrascal]

I think EOD is about 5pm EST tomorrow, so I'm only around this evening.

[OngBonga]

I think EOD is about 5pm EST tomorrow, so I'm only around this evening.

All I could see is "EOD is @ 2 Maj" on the opening post.

[lilrascal]

Lynch gator

If I'm wrong on this, then I blame gator for his wolfy turn around today and BID for his wolfy play yesterday.

Ong, if you're the wolf you played this endgame very well.

[OngBonga]

lynch gator

[lilrascal]

lynch gator

That's MAJ. Are you my fellow villager or a wolf?

[OngBonga]

Wait for mojo!

[lilrascal]

Wait for mojo!

We can, but game is over for real this time.

[OngBonga]

I'm not nearly ready to vote, I'm certainly gonna be sleeping on it.

I had a six minute power nap.

[lilrascal]

I had a six minute power nap.

Wolf nap I'd guess.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Wait for it...