In a way I'm using a simple, one variable explanation as my model too (regarding PA, the only one I've opined on).Originally Posted by Poopadoop
That model is that the D ran as an (effective) R (he really did, pro-gun, anti-abortion, etc.), so change in vote from R to D in this instance doesn't tell us much about what would happen in a hypothetical future election when the D runs as an effective D.
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