**** Elections thread *****

[Poopadoop]

Please, post some links to these sources your referencing. I'd love to see how you get from 42% to landsliding the midterms.

[BananaStand]

Please, post some links to these sources your referencing. I'd love to see how you get from 42% to landsliding the midterms.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...vote-6185.html

At New Years, Dems were ahead by 12.9. In less than three months since then, the lead has been cut by more than half to 5.8

For whom is that good news?

Furthermore, if you think Democrats making gun control a top plank in their platform isn't going to drive Republican turnout, then I'm guessing you've accidentally ingested some LSD.

[Poopadoop]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...vote-6185.html

At New Years, Dems were ahead by 12.9. In less than three months since then, the lead has been cut by more than half to 5.8

For whom is that good news?

Furthermore, if you think Democrats making gun control a top plank in their platform isn't going to drive Republican turnout, then I'm guessing you've accidentally ingested some LSD.

Haha, so you're inferring a trend from those values and assuming it's going to continue right through to November. Well sure, Nostradamus, that's what always happens when the apparent trend is going in the direction you want it to.

Here's some reality for you: you can find a trend in any direction when you measure a variable such as this over time. From July to Dec. '17 the Dem lead went from +7 to +13. How come it's not at +20 now, if the direction of a trend is such a powerful predictor?

"Trends" you find in data like these mean fuck all. Scoring the last field goal in a game doesn't mean you're more likely to win if you're still behind by a touchdown.

[BananaStand]

Haha, so you're inferring a trend from those values and assuming it's going to continue right through to November.

I realize that your caveman cognition can't handle much more than "Ooga booga - line go up - happy time", but I assure you I'm putting a little more thought into it than you're alleging.

I can see that the gap was wide when Republicans failed to reform healthcare, and that it narrowed after legislative victories on tax reform. So I am inferring that the trend is a result of a successfully implemented legislative agenda. I am predicting that success will continue, or at the very least, not reverse into abject failure within the next 7 months. And therefore I am concluding that these poll results should be interpreted as encouraging news by republicans.

[Poopadoop]

I am predicting that success will continue, or at the very least, not reverse into abject failure within the next 7 months. And therefore I am concluding that these poll results should be interpreted as encouraging news by republicans.

Well first your prediction was based on the gun debate; now you've thought up a few more reasons. So I'm glad your expert analysis is so well thought out.

Here's another interpretation of the latest trend: Trump finally kept his mouth shut about something (Daniels) and people have been slowly forgetting what an idiot he usually is in public.

Does your predictive model account for the very high likelihood Trump is going to do something completely idiotic again sometime soon, and likely repeatedly between now and Nov.?

[BananaStand]

Well first your prediction was based on the gun debate; now you've thought up a few more reasons. So I'm glad your expert analysis is so well thought out.

Are you suggesting that there are not multiple issues that affect the outcome of elections? Are you suggesting that I believed elections all hinged on one single issue?

Here's another interpretation of the latest trend: Trump finally kept his mouth shut about something (Daniels) and people have been slowly forgetting what an idiot he usually is in public.

Here's another interpretation of that. The left-wing media doesn't want to talk about legislative success so they have instead tried (sadly) to focus the national narrative on a consensual affair that occurred more than a decade ago.

Does your predictive model account for the very high likelihood Trump is going to do something completely idiotic again sometime soon, and likely repeatedly between now and Nov.?

When you describe Trump's actions as "completely idiotic", that usually means he's doing something right. And I said that I am predicting this success to continue. So yes, this is accounted for in my model.

[Poopadoop]

Are you suggesting that there are not multiple issues that affect the outcome of elections?

Where did I suggest that?

Are you suggesting that I believed elections all hinged on one single issue?

Again, where did I suggest that? I only responded to what you wrote. I don't try to put thoughts in other people's mouths like someone we all know.

Here's another interpretation of that. The left-wing media doesn't want to talk about legislative success so they have instead tried (sadly) to focus the national narrative on a consensual affair that occurred more than a decade ago.

Boo hoo.

When you describe Trump's actions as "completely idiotic", that usually means he's doing something right. And I said that I am predicting this success to continue. So yes, this is accounted for in my model.

Then why is he not ahead by 20 points? Oh I know 'cause the media is focusing on porn stars instead of his 'success'. Sounds like a Trump argument to me: when he wins it's cause he's brilliant, but when he loses it's someone else's fault.