**** Elections thread *****

[BananaStand]

Also....your numbers seem completely fake.

NY: 2009, 2% win by D, 2008:30% R, swing: 32% D

I'm not even gonna look it up. There is simply no way that McCain won NY by 30% in 2008. Just no way.

[Poopadoop]

Also....your numbers seem completely fake.



I'm not even gonna look it up. There is simply no way that McCain won NY by 30% in 2008. Just no way.

Reductio ad bananum in action.

I'm talking about special elections after the general election here bud.

[BananaStand]

I'm talking about special elections after the general election here bud.

I know exactly what you're talking about. the Politico story you linked cited that the PA-18 district was won by Trump in 2016 by a 20% margin. And then, Politico compared that to a congressional election a year later where the candidate from Trump's party was polling 6% behind his opponent. Hence 26% swing.

Now follow me here...

You said...

NY: 2009, 2% win by D, 2008:30% R, swing: 32% D

If we're comparing apples to apples, then "2008" must refer to the presidential election that year. The republican DID NOT WIN NY BY 30%.


Also...you seem to be cherry picking which special elections "count" in your analysis. For example, you seem to be leaving out a stunning GOP upset in Massachusetts during Obama's first year.

[Poopadoop]

I know exactly what you're talking about.

The rest of this post proves otherwise.

the Politico story you linked cited that the PA-18 district was won by Trump in 2016 by a 20% margin. And then, Politico compared that to a congressional election a year later where the candidate from Trump's party was polling 6% behind his opponent. Hence 26% swing.

I'm talking about the congressional candidates in the year of the general election vs. the congressional candidates in the special elections that took place in the following year.

In 2008, the R candidate in PA where the special election was held won by 20% (same as Trump). Sorry if you got confused by the fact the numbers happened to match.

If we're comparing apples to apples, then "2008" must refer to the presidential election that year. The republican DID NOT WIN NY BY 30%.

I'm comparing apples to apples, you're not.

The R candidate in the 23rd NY congressional district won by 30% in 2008; the D candidate won by 2% in 2009 special election in the same district.

Also...you seem to be cherry picking which special elections "count" in your analysis. For example, you seem to be leaving out a stunning GOP upset in Massachusetts during Obama's first year.

You mean the one that took place in 2010, > 1 year after the 2008 election?

Edit: Oh you must be talking about the seat Kennedy vacated? Pretty sure he was a senator bud.