Quote Originally Posted by Poopadoop View Post
Special elections since Trump:

Kansas: 2016 won by R by 31 points. 2017: Won by R by 7 points. Swing +24% D.
Montana : 2016 won by R by 15 points. 2017: Won by R by 6 points. Swing +9% D.
California: only D candidates ran in 2017 S.E.
Georgia: 2016 won by R by 23 points. 2017: Won by R by 3 points. Swing +20% D.
SC: 2016 won by R 21 points. 2017: Won by R by 3 points. Swing +18% D.
Utah: 2016 won by R 47 points. 2017: Won by R 32 points. Swing +15% D.
PA: 2016 won by R 20 points. 2017: tossup (0 points). Swing +20% D.

See a pattern there?
I see a pattern. One that seems to be univariate in a multivariate world, one that probably has some real heteroskedasticity problems, and other statistical jargon I don't know about.

Let's analyze the ongoing PA election.

It has a 20% swing from R to D from 2016 when voting Trump to 2018 and Trump is not on the ballot. The district has a 50k net of D voters normally. It's in a district that won't exist in a few months. The previous R congressman in the district was humiliated and shamed over an affair and (reportedly) attempted abortion. The R in the current race has little personal appeal and poor fundraising. The D in the race ran as an R, specifically as a very Trumpian R.

The 20% swing data by itself tells the wrong story about what actually happened here.