WW 2013 Edition: The Conglomerate

[wufwugy]

I don't EVER want to hear how awesome you are after this game when I show up as a villager.

I'm not sure I'm ever serious about that. I'm awesome at staying alive and getting people killed, but that's about it

I think the more I play this game the worse I get

[wufwugy]

I'm like an articulate BID

[wufwugy]

Man I thought Gizmo had two wolf games he won. WTF was the other one? I can no find

[wufwugy]

Each game needs a congratulations to the winner post. Some of these are terribly hard to figure out what they were otherwise

[Hoopy]

Question for wuf & ong.

Do you think me and the other one of wuf/ong are villagers?

I think both of you are villagers.

If we can all say that we're happy enough with our reads then the game is effectively over.

[daven]

[QUOTE=GatorJH;2133751]I
Instead of spending time there maybe you should review the posts of those alive and try to make a case for why you think they are a wolf.

You seem to do that only when someone is a prime lynch candidate for that day (see Aubrey yesterday and me today). /QUOTE]
i haven't gone after you today.
on the contrary, i have posted that you going after me looks like a villager making a huge mis-read OR a wolf
i have obviously been addressing the points you are making that you seem to think make me a wolf

I still can't tell whether you are more likely a mistaken villager or a wolf.
I'm confused as to why you would state that bigred posted content on day 1 though, among other things

I haven't moved from thinking that the last wolf is in [Gator/Wuf/Hoopy], although my views on relative likelihood move as i read through the thread.

[wufwugy]

dammit i cant find the game where the wolves were ong dtb and jv

[daven]

my interpretation of gizmo defending me is that he knew that i was being viewed as a pretty solid villager by quite a few people at that stage, and because of this it would look pretty wolfy to start going after me. Look at people's reads on me at that point.

[daven]

The game is over, the village has won, Gator is the final answer

there is a risk here. He's going after a villager, but that doesn't necessarily make him a wolf, i still can't figure it out.
he's still in my list of suspects, but so are you.

[daven]

If you are the final wolf wouldn't this be pretty easy to call?

you can use this argument anytime a villager gets things right about roles.
I mean, i got Pascal right from the start, i got Jyms wrong. That isn't an argument that i'm a wolf, but i guess you can use your argument to rebut the use of any correct reads by any player as an argument for being a villager.

[OngBonga]

Question for wuf & ong.

Do you think me and the other one of wuf/ong are villagers?

I think both of you are villagers.

If we can all say that we're happy enough with our reads then the game is effectively over.

It's not that simple. Our vig died screaming for us to lynch you. And our seer told us wuf needs to die. Plus, I can't be doing with wuf gloating he's goat wolf if he wins this due to something gizmo did.

I think you're both villagers. I also think gator is a villager. But I've been all over the place this ww day and am not ready to commit.

[daven]

I agree that it isn't the strongest argument, however by this time in the game the wolf is, in a lot of cases, the one who could be found a villager and a wolf.

this makes sense, and applies to everyone bar Ong at this point. It's why i'm waiting to vote until after I have finished reading the thread, nothing i have read so far has let me clear as villager or lock as wolf any of [Gator/Wufwugy/Hoopy]

[wufwugy]

nm i found dtb ong jv game

[OngBonga]

I wish jyms and boog were here instead of hoopy and wuf.

[OngBonga]

Ok, this jyms wagon has been bugging the shit out of me since it started. Let's have a look who was on that shall we?

[daven]

It's not that simple. Our vig died screaming for us to lynch you. And our seer told us wuf needs to die. Plus, I can't be doing with wuf gloating he's goat wolf if he wins this due to something gizmo did.

I think you're both villagers. I also think gator is a villager. But I've been all over the place this ww day and am not ready to commit.

ong, you're the only consensus villager (other than bigred) among us. I'm not sure if you've had any big errors other than JV this game (?). Read through the whole thread again and figure out who is most likely to be the last wolf. There must be more than one piece of evidence for the last wolf. Something doesn't ring right in gator's attack on me, but it also doesn't seem like something he would do as a wolf. I can also see arguments for and against both hoopy and wuf and i'll hopefully have a more solid view on all three of them once i've got through the posts since day 3.

I do wonder why gator hasn't bolded me if he's so convinced that i'm the last wolf. I also wonder how he used 'bigred has solid day 1 content' as an argument based on bigred's day 1 posts that i quoted earlier.

[OngBonga]

The End of Day Vote Count is as follows

Vote Count 4.04

Jyms(4, LYNCH): bikes, Daven, Wuf, Hoopy
Wuf(4): Keith, Ong, Boog, Jyms
Gator(1): Nightgizmo
Aubrey(1): Jackvance

Not voting:, Aubrey, Bigred, Gator

A DEADLINE LYNCH HAS BEEN REACHED. SCENE INCOMING

Sushi+Chocolate+Pretzels+Water = weird ass naps

FUCK YOU

[OngBonga]

Vote Count 5.03

Aubrey(3): Bigred, Boog, Gator
Boog(6, LYNCH): Wufwugy, Jackvance, Keith, Aubrey, Hoopy, Daven

Not Voting:, Ongbonga

A lynch has been reached!!! Results incoming

Cuz sooner or later its over, I just dont want to miss you tonight...

FUCK YOU AGAIN

Wolf is not gator. That is what I have determined from the jyms and boog wagons.

[daven]

Ok, this jyms wagon has been bugging the shit out of me since it started. Let's have a look who was on that shall we?

i was on it the whole way I think. I spent a lot of time trying to figure out how he could be anything other than wolf, and i failed. And i was wrong about him being a wolf.

[OngBonga]

So jyms got lynched with 4 votes, and wuf had 4 votes too. Can't see wuf being wolf here with gizmo not being on the jyms wagon. Looks to me gizmo doesn't give a crap who dies out of these two.

Ok I'm settled. We're lynching hoopy and daven.

[daven]

Wolf is not gator. That is what I have determined from the jyms and boog wagons.

how?
aubrey vs boog was villager vs villager
jyms vs wuf was villager vs ? and gator wasn't voting.

[OngBonga]

The jyms and boog wagons were so fucking bad, the wolf must've been on them both. Sure there's lots of retard villagers on there, but if gator is a wolf and managed to dodge BOTH the stupid villager wagons, he deserves to win.

[daven]

So jyms got lynched with 4 votes, and wuf had 4 votes too. Can't see wuf being wolf here with gizmo not being on the jyms wagon. Looks to me gizmo doesn't give a crap who dies out of these two.

Ok I'm settled. We're lynching hoopy and daven.

no offence intended, but i'm going to wait until i finish reviewing those days for myself before i clear either Wuf or Gator based on these final vote counts. If I'm able to clear one of them then that's obviously enough.

[OngBonga]

The jyms wagon in particular, the wolf must have seen that he can be cleared, and I was very vocal about that. So wolf is going to expect me to be at endgame, he will want jyms gone for sure. If he can do that without voting for him, that says a great deal about how well the village played the later stages of this game.

jyms should never have been killed. The fact he died while sharing the same vote count as wuf, this pretty much clears wuf, especially with gizmo sitting there with a dead vote.

I'm sure wuf is clear. We're down to three, and the fact both hoopy and daven were on two bad wagons, one after the other, this is where the wolf must be imo.

[daven]

The jyms and boog wagons were so fucking bad, the wolf must've been on them both. Sure there's lots of retard villagers on there, but if gator is a wolf and managed to dodge BOTH the stupid villager wagons, he deserves to win.

not enough to convince me.
One of them he wasn't voting and a villager got lynched, the other was villager vs villager and his vote was on one of the wagons. I guess it looks pretty bad that i was on both of them, you can look at my posts around the jyms wagon if that helps, i was pretty convinced about him. Re the boog vote, i thought that we had the wolf pretty well cornered in a pile that was too small to allow the wolf to win, and that boog was part of this pile.

[GatorJH]

you can use this argument anytime a villager gets things right about roles.
I mean, i got Pascal right from the start, i got Jyms wrong. That isn't an argument that i'm a wolf, but i guess you can use your argument to rebut the use of any correct reads by any player as an argument for being a villager.

my point there was that it doesn't do any good to point out things like that until it has been proven that you are a villager. Till then, all reads are suspect.

[OngBonga]

I smell panic. You can go first.

lynch daven

[daven]

anyway, i've just gone ww -> long session -> half an hour here
it's time to clear my head a little before i even think about finishing the thread read through. If i don't manage to clear one of them as a villager then I must be missing something.
Ong is in the hardest spot right now, he's faced with looking at four players to find one wolf and needs to clear two villagers to win. I'm in a far better spot than him, i'm looking at three players to find one wolf and if i clear one villager then I'm happy cos then i have two days to lynch the wolf among only two players.

@ gator, if you're a villager then you also only need to clear one more player (after ong) as a villager to win. Who out of hoopy and wuf is a villager? I get that you've somehow convinced yourself that i'm the last wolf, but i think you need to get those blinkers off.

[Hoopy]

FUCK YOU AGAIN

Wolf is not gator. That is what I have determined from the jyms and boog wagons.

We can clear wuf based on those 2 wagons, but Gator can still be a wolf just standing to one side and letting villagers be lynched.

[daven]

I smell panic. You can go first.

lynch daven

fair enough. Just be careful with who you decide to lynch on the last day. I don't think it's as lock as you seem to.
Hopefully the day will last long enough for me to finish my read through and post my reads.

[GatorJH]

Do I get to be player of the game if Daven ends up being the last wolf for sniffing him out? I've never come close to player of the game as a villager.

Btw, I am not going to bold yet as I think we need a SOLID plan for tomorrow in case whoever gets lynched today is not the final wolf and I hate to say it, but I still may be the best lynch today if Wuf and Hoopy still think I am pulling some massive play.

[OngBonga]

For gator to be wolf, two dumb lynches in a row where all villagers. Not buying that.

Gator is clear imo.

For wuf to be wolf, gizmo was holding his vote when someone can come along and nail wuf instead of jyms, which I totally would've done had I been aware. Gizmo would basically have been gambling that I wasn't going to kill wuf at the deadline.

Wuf is clear imo.

Plan for tomorrow is to lynch hoopy, if there is a tomorrow. For the reasons stated above.

I hate leading the village, let that be known.

[GatorJH]

@ gator, if you're a villager then you also only need to clear one more player (after ong) as a villager to win. Who out of hoopy and wuf is a villager? I get that you've somehow convinced yourself that i'm the last wolf, but i think you need to get those blinkers off.

I have already posted that I think Wuf is a wolf and believe that hoopy is a villager.

[OngBonga]

I actually think hoopy is the wolf for his last post.

[OngBonga]

Hopefully the day will last long enough for me to finish my read through and post my reads.

Ok I'll hold for this reason.

rescind

[OngBonga]

For wuf to be wolf, gizmo was holding his vote when someone can come along and nail wuf instead of jyms, which I totally would've done had I been aware. Gizmo would basically have been gambling that I wasn't going to kill wuf at the deadline.

Fuck I was already on the wuf wagon, this point is moot.

[OngBonga]

Still, it only takes one person to jump on wuf at the end and a wolf dies instead of a villager. With that in mind, I would totally expect gizmo to be on the jyms wagon instead of wasting his vote, if wuf was a wolf. So I'm still happy that wuf is clear.

[Hoopy]

For gator to be wolf, two dumb lynches in a row where all villagers. Not buying that.

Gator is clear imo.

jyms lynch was driven by the seer.

BooG lynch was driven by the vig.

There's no logical reason why it can't be that the voters on those successful lynches were all villagers.

Day 4 was villager vs villager, wolves didn't care who got lynched. gizmo bolded Gator who didn't vote in turn.

Day 5 it's now 9 vs 1, no reason why the wolf has to be on BooG's wagon due to numbers.

[OngBonga]

jyms lynch was driven by the seer.

BooG lynch was driven by the vig.

Yeah, and there was a villager who was very likely to make endgame, ie me, who would not have lynched either. The fact our specials played a huge role in these lynches, this suggests that it would be really easy for the wolf to jump on without looking too bad.

Wolf would want both of these dead, bearing in mind I wasn't going to vote either.

[OngBonga]

You had me fooled most of the game hoopy, I take my hat off to you for that. But I think you're showing your hand here. I'm 90% sure the wolf is between you and daven. The clues are in those two wagons that I hated so much. Plus, you're the two people that gizmo has not voted for, other than myself. So if the wolf is between gator and wuf, I feel it's a deserved wolf win.

lynch hoopy

[wufwugy]

Man I fucking hate this. I think Gator might be right, and if he is he's a goddamn god at this game.

So here's what happened: I've spent the last four hours going over all posts in previous games from known wolves, looking for some patterns. And I found several, but always with one small caveat. Like how DTB rarely goes after wolves and particularly likes making cases against villagers (so him bolding Daven early means Daven must be a villager), but he also follows those up later if it's a villager and forgets it if it's wolf (which he did with Daven). But then ITT DTB had to bold Jyms to protect Pascal, so that read dies.

This isn't particularly important now, but I went over tons of stuff like that. All of it came super close to being a fantastic catch, but still not quite. However, in trying to prove that Daven has to be a villager somehow, I think I figured out what Gator sees and can more fully articulate it


Basically, Daven is on Pascal while he's tied with Jyms, and within about an hour time period that both DTB and Gizmo are online, DTB bolds Jyms to put him ahead of Pascal, then Daven claims Jyms is a fantastic lynch but still isn't convinced enough to move, then Gizmo bolds Jyms, which along with others puts him a bit over the top. So now Daven has no need to move off Pascal.

Now this was all within time period where DTB Gizmo and Daven would discuss what to do, and it would be better for DTB and Gizmo to move to Jyms because they weren't on any other wagon. If Daven moved, it would be more transparent. So they decided that the other wolves would push Jyms over the top and Daven would sit tight. Normally this is just a coincidence, but Daven does mention a few times about how he wants to move off Pascal or that Jyms is a great lynch, as well as saying that Pascal isn't even that wolfy (yet he didn't move off him).

So this is kinda hedging at its finest. Meanwhile, Hoopy is on Pascal, but shows little desire move off him. Also Gator is on Hoopy and played nothing in getting Jyms over the top of Pascal.

There are some problems with this though, it's really one of those intricate reads where you can't rely on fundamentals. The epitome of soulread, if accurate.

Another thing I noticed is that Hoopy moves Jyms/DTB tied at 5 to DTB being over the top. If I had noticed this before, I wouldn't have thought Hoopy was wolf. Gator then bolds DTB shortly after then ten minutes later DTB fake outs. So this could mean Gator is a wolf


We could be looking at a lynch order of Daven then Gator and be sitting pretty

rescind Gator

[OngBonga]

I'm not lynching gator.

[OngBonga]

I nominate bigred for mvp. He's been so awesome this game that wolf could viably leave the confirmed villager for final day and kill me instead. In fact I hope wolf does, because it's giving me a headache.

[Hoopy]

You had me fooled most of the game hoopy, I take my hat off to you for that. But I think you're showing your hand here. I'm 90% sure the wolf is between you and daven. The clues are in those two wagons that I hated so much. Plus, you're the two people that gizmo has not voted for, other than myself.

The problem I have is that you're clearing Gator on a bad assumption that a wolf must be on both day 4 and 5 lynches.

Yeah, and there was a villager who was very likely to make endgame, ie me, who would not have lynched either. The fact our specials played a huge role in these lynches, this suggests that it would be really easy for the wolf to jump on without looking too bad.

Wolf would want both of these dead, bearing in mind I wasn't going to vote either.

2 vs 11 on day 4, both wagons were villagers and the wolves didn't care who went.

1 vs 9 on day 5, both villagers so again the wolf can be on both.

[GatorJH]

I nominate bigred for mvp. He's been so awesome this game that wolf could viably leave the confirmed villager for final day and kill me instead. In fact I hope wolf does, because it's giving me a headache.

now THAT'S funny!!

[GatorJH]

The problem I have is that you're clearing Gator on a bad assumption that a wolf must be on both day 4 and 5 lynches.

2 vs 11 on day 4, both wagons were villagers and the wolves didn't care who went.

1 vs 9 on day 5, both villagers so again the wolf can be on both.

Hoopy, is your backup plan wuf or daven?

[wufwugy]

lynch daven

[Hoopy]

I think wuf nailed it!

Hoopy, is your backup plan wuf or daven?

Assuming you mean that we lynch you and turn out villager then daven for sure the next day.

[Hoopy]

I want to lynch daven today, but I'll wait until he completes his read through.

[GatorJH]

I want to lynch daven today, but I'll wait until he completes his read through.

Agreed

[OngBonga]

I'm 50-50 between daven and hoopy tbh. It's going to take something rather compelling to have me believe gator is the wolf. Yes, the wolf can dodge those wagons, but it's unlikely. It's not just those wagons though hoops, factor in that gizmo has also neglected to put serious pressure on either you or daven, which is characteristic os wolf gizmo protecting his buddies, this has me firmly convinced we have the wolf cornered. If not, gg wolf.

[wufwugy]

On the day of Jyms lynch, Gator bolded him early but rescinded and also said he thinks Aubrey is a villager

I have a really tough time making sense of all this. I do like Ong's point about Gator not being on the bad wagons (Boog was a good wagon, however), but it also seems like something Gator could easily do as a wolf

[wufwugy]

Okay I have to study for my test now. Lost soooooooooo much fucking time today. Hopefully there is no tomorrow

[OngBonga]

Boog was not a good wagon. I think bikes referred to it as "the most reckless thing he's ever seen" or something similar, if boog was wolf. We'd already have this wrapped up if boog and jyms were still alive.

[GatorJH]

On the day of Jyms lynch, Gator bolded him early but rescinded and also said he thinks Aubrey is a villager

I have a really tough time making sense of all this. I do like Ong's point about Gator not being on the bad wagons (Boog was a good wagon, however), but it also seems like something Gator could easily do as a wolf

It seems like every time you see something that points toward me being a villager you end it with "Gator could easily do that as a wolf".

[daven]

Hopefully the day will last long enough for me to finish my read through and post my reads.

starting day 4 now

[GatorJH]

This should be pretty good.

[daven]

Wufwugy(4): Keith, JV, Boog , ng

DTB(6): wufwugy, bikes, hoopy, Aubrey, jyms, rong


the last wolves are certainly among these people. its def not danarong cause hes obv dead and its def not me

reading bikes' posts is interesting, there are a few like this

[daven]

This should be pretty good.

fair enough, here's something that i think is good in the meantime:

I've just reached the end of day 3 and i've figured out how JV found gizmo, which i'm pretty proud of, but probably isn't relevant to where we're at now.

rong posted two posts targeting gizmo hard as a wolf, then rong got night killed, then jv posted that he would look into why rong got night killed, then he shot gizmo. That's mvp play there, unless rong put this out there intentionally to draw in gizmo, in which case it's rong/JV.

while you're waiting, can you also explain why you think that bigred's day 1 posts were full of content, one of your main lines of argument against me was that i had labelled him day 1 inactive and now you're ignoring that you had this all wrong.

[daven]

and for that reason i like my jyms lynch. team wolf decides "this is it, dtb's Apocalypse" and votes for him. which largely leads to my belief there is a wolf among the people who voted for DTB and since it can't be me or rong that leaves wuf, aubrey jyms and hoopy.

i am all for a course of lynch jyms, shoot aubrey and if a wolf is not found then lynching hoopy and wufwugy in that order

.

[GatorJH]

while you're waiting, can you also explain why you think that bigred's day 1 posts were full of content, one of your main lines of argument against me was that i had labelled him day 1 inactive and now you're ignoring that you had this all wrong.

Let's see

He voted to lynch jyms, responded to Ong, suspected you, voted for you then defended that vote.

It may not be chock full of content but for day 1 it most certainly isn't the lack of content you try to make it out to be.

[daven]

don't be so quick to discount gator
he posts a whole bunch of arguments that suggest i might be a wolf, then seems to ignore those that don't fly. Again, why do you suggest bigred was posting content?

also:


Originally Posted by GatorJH
Also, not sure what a TLR lynch has to do with Pascal,

i made this post on day 2
Quote:
Originally Posted by daven
TLR being killed is the only completely solid info we have to go on at the moment, it suggests that we should look more closely at Pascal and Hoopy.

it was pointed out that Pascal and Hoopy (as wolves) wouldn't be so obvious as to kill TLR as it would immediately bring them under suspicion. This argument seems less strong now that we know Pascal was a wolf. I'm starting to wonder about Hoopy again.

early day 2 voting and the following is the only thing that really stands out to me:

Hoopy made what seems a fairly key early vote for Pascal (368).
Jackvance moved to Hoopy setting up a likely two wagons (Hoopy vs Pascal), then Ongbonga moved away from Dropthebanana putting him down to 1 vote vs 3 on Hoopy and Pascal
Hoopy's wagon was all low content posters.

post 425
Quote:
Originally Posted by JKDS
Vote Count 2.04
Hoopy(3): bigred, GatorJH, Jackvance
Bigred(1): Boog690,
Boog(2):, Keith, Jyms
Dropthebanana(3): Rong, Pascal, Ongbonga
Jyms(4): Bikes, Wufwugy, Aubrey, Dropthebanana
Pascal(4): Daven, Gabe, Hoopy, Xtr1000

Not Voting: nightgizmo

Deadline is in 7hours, 1min. With 18 alive it takes 10 to lynch!

Superbowl squares!!!!!!!!!!!!!


then a jyms wagon took off, Just as he appeared to be at risk Jyms turned up to defend again WITHOUT moving his vote from Boog - then Wufwugy instantly moved his vote away from Jyms and onto Dropthebanana - that's another lynch move that Wufwugy is unlikely to make as a wolf.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JKDS
Vote Count 2.04
Hoopy(3): bigred, GatorJH, Jackvance
Bigred(1): Boog690
Boog(1): Jyms
Dropthebanana(2): Rong, Pascal
Jyms(7): Bikes, Wufwugy, Aubrey, Dropthebanana, Keith, Nightgizmo, Gabe
Pascal(4): Daven, Hoopy, Xtr1000, Ongbonga

Not voting: No one.

Deadline is in 3hrs, 45min. With 18 alive it takes 10 to lynch!

Should a tie occur, the leading wagon just before the tie occurred will win. It matters not who was winning prior to this tie, nor if other ties preceded it.

The only game information given exclusively to the wolves is what was contained in their role pm.

A friend of mine from High School is a Furry.

Last four players moving to Dropthebanana before he fake-outed were Gabe, Boog, Hoopy, GatorJH. It's likely that at least two of the remaining three are villagers.

The move from Dropthebanana to Pascal at this point doesn't tell us much at all, Pascal was already looking like the most likely wolf and if the wolves were in a position where they had to choose between lynching Pascal and retaining Dropthebanana who had just fake-outed as seer then it's pretty likely that they would choose to lynch Pascal. Jyms was the 7th vote on Pascal, but at that point it was looking mostly likely to be one of Pascal/Jyms who got lynched. I'm not sure why Wufwugy wanted to move off Pascal just as he was about to get lynched though, even though it was too late.

ok, i still can't see why 'day 2 voting patterns' clear Jyms from being a wolf. Claiming that his vote for Pascal clears him could easily be a premeditated wolf move.

re your claim that i haven't been wolf-hunting or posting content. I don't think you've been reading the same posts as i have if you think i've been posting no content and bigred has been posting content...

[daven]

Let's see

He voted to lynch jyms, responded to Ong, suspected you, voted for you then defended that vote.

It may not be chock full of content but for day 1 it most certainly isn't the lack of content you try to make it out to be.

his argument for lynching jyms was 'and a middle finger to jyms' or something, etc. People can read those posts for themselves and judge whether i was out of line for thinking they didn't have much real content though i suppose.

[daven]

hoopy - 1249 calls out gizmo for low posting, then bolds him in 1273
gizmo responds by calling hoopy a villager.

After skimming his posts, I think Hoopy is a villager. Early on day 2, he was pushing for a DTB vs. JV wagon, his votes were mainly on pascal and DTB during that day, and pushed for a DTB lynch at the end of Day 3. I just can't see a wolf consistently voting against his fellow wolves.

[daven]

As frustrating as wuf is I think we need to put pressure on the remaining low content players like bigred, bikes, daven and gizmo.

gator, you made this post (1352), then JV called you out on how i could be low content and you didn't address it at all, your next post stated that i was trying to add value but didn't answer why you had called me low content in the first place

I'm busy at work too, but at least find time to check in. As for Daven's and Gizmo as long as they continue to try an add value we can leave them be for now.

[daven]

we have both Ong (lock-villager in my eyes) and Gator (?) saying they're going to read the thread and provide their thoughts. Hopefully Hoopy will be doing so as well. We should wait until they've had time to do this before lynching anyone today. If we lynch Gator and he flips villager then having his reads will obviously be valuable, same goes for Hoopy or Wuf.

At the moment I think the last wolf is in [Gator/Hoopy/Wuf] and more likely to be one of [Gator/Hoopy] than to be Wuf. I do wonder why Wuf is so eager to lynch early though.


i think it's only one bold [Wuf] on you so far. I'm happy to hold my vote for a while at least, i want to get through the thread before bolding anyone today.

i've been reading a whole lot of wuf's posts and every time i do that i think he's a villager. At the start of the day i thought the wolf was more likely to be one of [Gator/Hoopy] than to be Wuf. I'm getting close to ready to go with this read.

[daven]

posts like these don't sound fake.
I could copy heaps of posts that show that his logic argument trains when he has been pissed off stay solid.
If wuf is wolf then he probably deserves a win and the right to claim awesome. But i'm pretty sure he's a villager.

I'll keep reading, but right now i don't imagine the wolf not being one of [Gator/Hoopy]

damn son, way to out yourself.

1. im not complaining about dispersed wagons. i ALREADY did that and paid the price for it. im merely pointing out to u

2. i already staked my claim and i dont have much opinion on others. since i realized im either getting shot or lynched due to trying to find wolves, i stopped actually caring, and do not have any actual opinion about gizmo or hoopy. and the jyms wagon does not sit right with me. so im just bleh on the whole thing

3. im a villager for a million reasons. not because i said pascal was a good lynch, but because of WHY. under no circumstances does a wolf say that to him in the forum.

not because of going after dtb, but WHEN and HOW. under no circumstances am i going to pop off jyms to dtb so he can fake out. and if jyms is a wolf, under no circumstances would the three top wagons be wolves, wherein we effectively killed half the team due to idiocy.

im not a wolf because my explanation for why the jv vs jyms wagon predicated on bigred being the seer is a far better explanation for behavior than anything any wolves ever do

im not a wolf because i took the village reigns in a huge way while the seer and vig were still alive. wolves never actually do this

i do not need to go on. this is just masturbatory at this point

4. if you think jack is a wolf, the last thing you would want to do is lynch me. the very fucking last. because if he's a wolf, it would mean that i purposely got the second to last wolf killed. this shit is all on early game phase. you really think im going to be integral in killing off so much of my team that im the last wolf remaining for all of mid and late game? get a clue

the fact that you dont see this makes you look either bad or a wolf yourself


and your attacks against pascal and dtb are not as logistically sound as you think. they're really good hedgers, but not unheard of tactics

When we take a step back and look at it from the macro picture, Hoopy is the wolf here way more than anybody else because his posts have the least amount of quality and villagery content in them. He has done no wolf-hunting whatsoever and has posted only really agreeable and standard things. Even the sporadic poster in Gator and the nub poster in Aubrey have done more to advance the position of the village than Hoopy. Time and time again, we have seen wolves be the ones who have done the least real genuine wolf-hunting.

If you don't agree with me, then agree with the two players that are widely considered in the top five best on this forum: Rilla and the JVP. Rilla has stated and acted upon his villager strategy many times, which is that the wolves are the ones who do the least and the villagers are the ones who do the most. The JVP got his name because while he was already considered a top player, he caught the entire wolf team two games in a row. In this game, he has so far been the most accurate player due to being the vig and shooting Gizmo

Even though I didn't think so at first, the JVP was on his game this time, and his dying wish was that Hoopy be the first lynched. I think with his opinion on that and with my demonstration of Hoopy's highly wolfy post activity this game, we need to make 100% certain that we lynch Hoopy

I don't care if you wanna do it today, tomorrow, or the final day, just make sure you do it. So figure out in your mind who needs to die in order for you to want to kill Hoopy more than anybody, then let's go with it

From my perspective, I am always a villager, Ong and Daven are almost always villagers, and the most likely wolf to least likely lynch order then becomes Hoopy-->Aubrey-->Gator

If you guys are not confident in leaving me alive for the entire game, then lynch me today or tomorrow, then lynch Hoopy next, but do not leave me and Hoopy alive on the final day then lynch me. The same goes for Aubrey and Gator; do not leave one of them alive for the final day along with Hoopy or me and decide to still not lynch Hoopy. We need to give the JVP his final wish and make sure Hoopy dies. I think my big post on him showed why he's a wolf very often anyways. What you need to do is figure out who among Aubrey, Gator, and Wufwugy you will give the "lock-villager" status to in order to make sure that you lynch Hoopy before the game is over

[daven]

gator has been withholding his vote a lot this game. Holding his vote at the end of day 4 makes sense if he's a wolf and Wuf is a villager because he would be happy that one of Jyms or Wuf get lynched.

[daven]

boog is a wolf here every single time. not like 98% of the time, but 100%. he never "accepts" his fate as a villager like he has done this game. he basically showed up and has no opinion about new developments and the last wolf other than "i'll die if you think i should"? 110% wolf, without question. likewise he never lets dtb off the hook after he was named.

the game is over as soon as boog dies. gg

btw he got super demoralized when gizmo was shot and realized that the fps of trying to find the seer instead of killing jv when he first outed cost them the game

lol, wuf, i still think you're a villager, but your reads are all over the place

[daven]

gator got an early vote in on the Jyms wagon:

1446

lynch jyms

Lets get this thing going.

and then only rescinded once it was villager vs villager wagons

1474

I like JV's analysis and will rescind jyms.

I could get in a hoopy wagon but would be extremely shocked if Aubrey is a villager.

If we need a safe lynch today lynch me and let her live so she can gain some experience. My availability over the next few days is going to be tough anyway.

----------
he did the same with boog

With all specials being outed that would be pretty silly, but if my lynch would help clear up the clutter then yes I am ok with it.

I honestly don't have a good read on any of the remaining suspects so I will go with JV and lynch boog

then rescinded when it was clearly villager vs villager again and jumped across to the other villager wagon.

meh, ok.

Rescind boog and lynch aubrey

He was instrumental in getting both the Jyms and Boog wagons underway, both times moving off them once it was guaranteed that a villager was going to be lynched. His absence from the day end lynch wagons doesn't mean anything.

[daven]

ong, look at your post 1897 again. You seem to be looking at day end wagons too much now, and forgetting what happened during the voting beforehand.

[wufwugy]

lol, wuf, i still think you're a villager, but your reads are all over the place

Yes my reads are shit. What's new?

[wufwugy]

Boog was not a good wagon. I think bikes referred to it as "the most reckless thing he's ever seen" or something similar, if boog was wolf. We'd already have this wrapped up if boog and jyms were still alive.

If he said that, before he did, he said Boog was a good lynch based on game theory. I tried to get him to explain, but he didn't.

My read on Boog was pretty fucking fantastic. It's just a shame that most awesome reads are just coincidences. Why exactly was he such a bad lynch? I thought the game was over with his death

[wufwugy]

It seems like every time you see something that points toward me being a villager you end it with "Gator could easily do that as a wolf".

But you could.

You have, actually

[wufwugy]

I think Daven is as Ong said: panicking. In addition, posts like this are doing nothing but muddying the waters

http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ml#post2133958

He has a very unique style, for sure, and if he's a wolf here he's a seriously dangerous player because he can put on a facade of wolf-hunting just dandy. Maybe finding him out would be about seeing how inconsequential his hunting is, perhaps